Now or never for J.P. Howell
Thursday, March 6th, 2008I’m sure J.P. Howell’s not a stupid guy. He sees Scott Kazmir, James Shields, and Matt Garza firmly entrenched in front of him. He sees David Price, Wade Davis, Jake McGee, and Chris Mason coming up behind him. He sees Andy Sonnanstine, Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel, and Jeff Niemann standing next to him. His window to prove he can be an effective big league pitcher is closing very quickly, and there’s nearly half-a-dozen other hurlers trying to jump through it at the same time.
To say that the lefty with the tantalizing changeup has struggled in the big leagues is an understatement. He’s 5-14 in 33 career games, but the rest of the numbers look ugly, too. A 6.34 ERA. 1.61 WHIP. 74 walks and just 136 strikeouts. They all look like the numbers of a pitcher who’s bound for mop-up duty forever.
Frustrating – for him, for the Rays, for us – is that he’s done extremely well in the minor leagues during his career. He averages more than a K per inning down there and his WHIP is nearly half a run lower. He looks like the guy who was picked in the first round by the Royals a few years ago. It’s all about location, command, and confidence with him. Pitchers with his kind of stuff – Jamie Moyer and Tom Glavine come to mind – have been successful at the big league level, but not by walking 4 men per 9 innings and telegraphing their changeup and putting it right over the middle of the plate.
Perhaps he’s just another case of a player with a good bit of talent who will forever be the AAAA kind of player – bound to shuttle between the big leagues and minor leagues and serve as the mop-up man once he’s making the major league salary. You don’t see an awful lot of pitchers like Howell stuck out in the bullpen, though. John Halama and Terry Mulholland come to mind, but both of them had decent-to-good runs as starting pitchers before moving to the bullpen. Howell has never figured out how to do it.
There’s a group of people who think Howell is a natural fit to be a LOOGY in the future, a statement which I couldn’t agree with less. His changeup and his cutter are naturally more effective against right-handed batters than lefties, and his soft-tossing nature won’t really deceive any lefty-hitting sluggers. You might as well trot a really good right-handed pitcher out there rather than relying on Howell – at least the Howell that we’ve seen before.
No, I truly feel Howell’s best shot at long-term big league success is as a starting pitcher. I’ve never been shy about saying this before, but I like him a lot better than Edwin Jackson and I hope that if he out-throws E-Jax this spring that the team tooks a good, long look at him before just shuttling him back to Durham. So far, in his brief amount of work, the numbers have been there – 5 Ks and 0 ER in 2.2 IP – but all of that has come late in games against the same type of competition that he has already dominated in the minor leagues.
As I said earlier, with David Price knocking on the door (perhaps as soon as this summer), and Jade McDavis soon to follow in the next year or two, Howell is going to become a forgotten man unless he makes his mark soon. He needs to stand out. He needs to win a spot on the Opening Day roster and start getting big league batters out. He needs to consistently look like the minor league pitcher that’s made me want to see him given a starting spot. More importantly than anything else, though, he needs to make it for himself, because I can’t imagine there will be too many teams interested in a soft-tossing hurler who the Royals gave up on for Joey Gathright and who the Rays gave up on in his mid-20s.
And now, some links:
- I’m not the only guy who wanted to write about J.P. Howell. Marc Lancaster threw up a piece on him yesterday that makes mine look like nothing more than a cheap rip-off. Oh well. You win some, you lose some. There are some very interesting notes in there about how Howell is a changed man, looking less at excuses for why he didn’t succeed and more at ways in which he can succeed. It’s actually a fascinating look at the lefty, I think. (TBO.com)
- Alas, the Rays finally lost a Spring Training game, 8-4 to the Astros yesterday. Not sure if you caught this, but Carl Crawford actually barreled over the catcher during the game. Nicely done, C.C. Bossman Junior continues to mash, but Scott Dohmann and Scott Munter stunk up the joint in the later innings to blow this one. I know you don’t look too much at the numbers during the spring, but this is not the kind of outing that D’oh!-man needs to win himself a spot in the bullpen. (Recap/Box) — (The Heater)
- There are 135 guys whose names most people don’t know crowding the Rays’ minor league camp this week. Speaking of the minor leagues, I hope to be running out weekly Minor League Wrap again starting next week sometime, so stay tuned! (talkalabama.com)
- “Navi came to camp with a great attitude and in great shape,” said Maddon, a former catcher himself. “He just needs to gain confidence with game-calling. It takes time to nurture.” Cap’n Joe also praised Navi’s baserunning ability. (MLB.com)
- In the notes to that same article, David Price will make his Spring debut on Saturday against the Yankees. Here’s to hoping he puts one right in Johnny Damon’s backside on the first pitch he throws. (MLB.com)
- Agressive. One-of-a-kind. Fun. Gamer. Power. Chikara. All words that Jonny Gomes’ teammates use to describe him. He could be primed for a breakout year this season. Look out. (MLB.com)
- Thunder Matt is, by my count, the 4,637,219th person to predict that the Rays will finish .500 or better this season. Of course, most of them actually do so without the snide jokes about Evan Longoria’s name. Not that those are getting old or anything. (Thunder Matt’s Saloon)
- You’ll probably either really love this or really hate this: it sure sounds like Edwin Jackson has all but locked up a spot in the rotation in Joe Maddon’s mind. (St. Pete Times)
- Look out! There’s been a Chuck LaMar sighting! Everyone hide your valuables! (Philly.com)
- Eric Hinske, you’ve got a job in April. At least according to one blogger. (Rays Anatomy)
