Rays of Light

A Guide to Recognizing Your Prospects: Desmond Jennings

Thursday, April 24th, 2008

The story of Desmond Jennings’s emergence in the Rays’ farm system is a classic case of an unfortunate situation turning into something extremely positive. Jennings began his promising athletic career as multi-sport star for Pinson Valley High School in Pinson, Alabama. On the gridiron, he was a three-star wide receiver prospect according to Rivals.com, and would have been ranked much higher nationally had his grades been in order.

Despite his talents, many colleges shied away from offering Jennings a football scholarship, because, between his promising baseball future and academic concerns, he was unlikely to ever play college football. However, on National Signing Day, Jennings was given the chance that thousands of young men across the state of Alabama can only dream about; he signed his National Letter of Intent to play football for the University of Alabama. Had Jennings been able to realize that dream then there is little doubt that I would not be writing this profile.

Unfortunately, or fortunately depending on which view you are taking, his recruiters’ reservations were justified as Jennings failed to achieve the necessary qualifying score out of high school to attend Alabama. Jennings then landed at Itawamba Junior College where he flourished on the baseball diamond. This led to the Rays’ front office selecting Jennings in the 10th round of the 2006 draft.

To the credit of management, they got a deal done rather quickly and he was able to spend some time in the minors later that summer. This is where he began to become noticed as a legit prospect. Baseball America even named him one of the Top 10 prospects in the Appalachian League. This was only the beginning for Jennings as his 2007 season turned him from a prospect to “keep an eye on” into a legitimate blue-chip prospect.

Jennings, who spent all of last season with the Columbus Catfish, terrorized pitchers in the South Atlantic League. Spending almost every night in the leadoff spot, he hit .315, drew 45 walks, and stole an eye-popping 45 bases. He also showed a nice amount of pop for a leadoff hitter where he recorded 25 doubles, 5 triples, and homered 9 times. Overall, he posted a .401 OBP and had almost a 1:1 BB/K ratio.

The only concerning part of his 2007 campaign was that he missed the last month of the season with a minor back injury. This alone would not have been a concern, but since he has yet to play a game this year it may be something to keep an eye. Most seem to agree that the organization is just being extremely cautious with one of the most prized jewels in the best farm system in baseball.

His injury did not have any effect on Jennings rapid rise in every 2008 prospect list. Here is just a sampling of his new rankings amongst the game’s elite minor league prospects.

While one would have to assume Jennings is still a few years away from reaching Tampa Bay, I am hesitant to put a ceiling on what he can accomplish and how quickly. I am aware that it is dangerous to anoint a prospect until he proves something above A-ball, but Jennings seems to be as safe of a bet as possible. He absolutely dominated the South Atlantic League last season, and could have been moved up to Vero Beach had he not been injured.

His exceptional performance at that level leads me to believe it is reasonable to expect Jennings to be an everyday member of the Tampa Bay outfield by mid-2010. However, I would not be surprised in the least if he can surpass those expectations. If his bat can keep up with his tremendous speed, which grades out right at the top of the 20-80 scouting scale, then the sky is truly the limit for this outstanding, young talent.

For more info and stats on Desmond Jennings check out his profile over at Baseball Reference.

Posted in Prospect Profiles | 2 Comments »

A Guide to Recognizing Your Prospects: James Houser

Thursday, April 17th, 2008

Welcome to the first entry in our new prospect profile series! We will begin today by taking a look at LHP James Houser. I think most people would expect this series to begin with David Price, Jacob McGee, or Wade Davis (those are coming), but, frankly, I think Houser is the most interesting story developing in the Rays’ farm system.

Houser was originally selected by the Tampa Bay organization in the 2nd Round (38th overall) of the 2003 amateur baseball draft. He was drafted as a tall, projectable left-hander out of Sarasota, Florida. As with most pitching prospects drafted directly out of high school, the Rays’ organization were aware that it would take Houser a while to develop. That has certainly been the case, but it is beginning to look like the proverbial green light has come on for Houser.

After spending his first four seasons never rising above A ball, Houser was slotted into the Montgomery (AA) starting rotation last season. Houser was putting together a very solid campaign (20 GS, 3.66 ERA, 2:1 K/BB) when his season fell completely off the tracks. In July, Houser was suspended 50 games for testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance. That meant that Houser would miss the remainder of the Montgomery season, including the playoffs, and it looked as if it would carry into 2008. With Houser being Rule 5 Eligible after the season his future in the Tampa Bay organization looked rather cloudy.

In a somewhat surprising move, the Rays’ added him to the 40-man roster this off-season, protecting him from the Rule 5 draft, and effectively ending his suspension. Houser is now technically a major league player with is inclusion on the roster, and was no longer required to serve his minor league suspension. He has definitely made the most of his opportunity.

This season back in Montgomery, Houser has allowed only 1 ER over the course of 15 IP. That is good for an ERA of 0.60. The Montgomery staff is bringing him along slowly, he has pitched only five innings in each start, but if he continues at this pace he could be in a Bulls uniform by midseason.

Houser is still only 23 years old, only 9 months older than Wade Davis and 21 months younger than Jeff Niemann, so there is still plenty of time for him to develop. Houser came in at #14 on the 2008 Top Prospects Meta-Analysis put together by Rays Index. Without the lingering suspicions about his suspension and drug use, Houser could have snuck into the bottom half of the Top Ten.

Despite Houser’s semi-reemergence, I am still unsure where he fits into the organization’s long-term plans. The starting rotation in Tampa is going to be quite crowded in the coming years, to the say the least, so it is hard to project Houser to ever crack the rotation in Tampa. While he is a very good prospect, he is simply not on the level of a Davis, McGee, Price, or Niemann. The most likely scenario, if Houser continues to perform well, is that he could become a key piece in a potential trade for a right fielder that the Rays desperately need to add. There are still some questions surrounding Houser, but the market for left-handed starting pitchers is never very sparse. Especially when they are as young and as talented as James Houser.

Posted in Prospect Profiles | 2 Comments »