This is part two of a two-part series looking at the effect of the Scott Kazmir extension on future of the Rays pitching staff. Part one took a closer look at the future of the current major league rotation. Part two features an examination of the highly touted pitchers currently in the minors.
When the Rays drafted David Price with the #1 overall pick in the 2007 draft some baseball people felt that he was practically ready for the majors on draft day. As it turns out, it will take the most polished prospect in the draft almost a full year before he will throw his first professional pitch.
The great news is that with the Rays pitching staff performing at such a high level there is no rush to get Price to Tampa. While Price’s rehab from an elbow strain this spring has been pain-stakingly slow, for everyone involved in the process, it is hard to argue that caution is not the best thing long-term. In my opinion, one the worst things that could be done to a young pitcher is to throw him into his professional debut without full confidence in his health. It would be a recipe for failure from the very beginning. When both sides believe he is 100% ready to pitch then I expect him to hit the ground running.
Price is arguably the most talented pitcher to come out of college in several years as he possesses almost every tool that a scout is looking for in a pitching prospect. He is an athletic lefty with exceptional makeup that has the potential to throw 3 plus pitches with good command. Despite the injury, Price still has all the tools to rise quickly through the system, and it is not out of the question for him to get a look in Spring Training of 2009. Of course, much of that will depend on his progress through this season, and if he can prove that his injury is only a minor blip on the radar.
Therefore, barring injury, you can pencil David Price in the Rays’ rotation no later than opening day in 2010. Going to back to part one that gives us a 2010 rotation of the following players:
1) Scott Kazmir
2) James Shields
3) Matt Garza
4) David Price
Where will we look to find another starter for this rotation? Well, it looks like we will be forced to choose a 5th starter out of a list of four players from Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects. Let’s take a look at the contenders for the last spot in the rotation.
The Rays drafted Jeff Niemann with the #4 overall pick in 2004 draft and had expectations of him reaching the majors quickly. That plan has been derailed by injuries and consistency problems by Niemann even when he is healthy.
The towering righty did make his major league debut this season against the Baltimore Orioles. Niemann was very impressive in his short stint in Tampa flashing a mid-90s fastball, a sharp slider, and a big curve ball. Unfortunately, Niemann took a quick step back as injury problems resurfaced when he returned to Triple A. He is back in the rotation working on a pitch count, and it is unclear when he could have a chance at rejoining the 25 man roster.
If Niemann could suddenly shake the injury bug then he would be an excellent choice to slot in the rotation. His stuff is not the concern, and there is some belief that if he could remain healthy for an extended amount of time that his stuff could come close to returning to what he showcased as a starter for Rice. Unfortunately, how often is it the case that a prospect with a medical chart like Niemann’s can ever really become completely healthy? That makes it is difficult to believe that Niemann will ever be a part of the starting rotation for an extended period of time. He has the arm to be great out of the bullpen, but it is not as if he would become magically healthy in that role either. Hopefully, Jeff proves me wrong and Rocco Baldelli catches the final out of his first no-hitter in the 2010 ALCS.
That brings us to the dynamic duo of Wade Davis and Jacob McGee. In my opinion, the days of their tag team partnership are numbered for several reasons. First of all, everyone needs to come to terms with the reality that, in all likelihood, one of these guys is going to be a bust. If you look at baseball history it is extraordinarily rare for at trio like Price, Davis, and McGee to all come up to the majors and reach their potential. Personally, I believe the chances of Price busting are as minimal as possible, so that leads me to believe that one of these two guys will not make it as a major league starter.
I think you can make a legitimate argument for either Davis or McGee, but I am going to go the safe route in picking Wade Davis as my #5 starter. I just love everything about Davis as a prospect. He has had phenomenal results over the last two seasons, and still has the potential to refine his game further. I think projecting Davis as a #5 starter is practically his floor at this point.
McGee, on the other hand, is still a variable in a lot of ways. His ceiling is probably a bit higher than Davis’s, but the counter is that he has a much lower floor. He has been able to over-power hitters at earlier levels with his electric fastball, but he will find it very difficult to succeed in the majors if he can’t get his breaking ball over for strikes. Some people see McGee as a power reliever, but I still think a scenario where all three are successful in any capacity is unlikely. I hate to feel like I am singling out McGee, because there is a decent chance that this could happen to any of the “Big Three”.
In summary, that gives the Rays a 2010 starting rotation of the following:
1. Scott Kazmir
2. James Shields
3. Matt Garza
4. David Price
5. Wade Davis
While I think Davis is going to be the guy at the end of the rotation, the darkhorse in this race is Jeremy Hellickson. Hellickson is currently putting together a season in Vero Beach that could surpass what Wade Davis was able to do last season. The only reason I didn’t give J-Hell more consideration for the final slot is due to the glacial pace that the Rays have moved him through the system. Until the organization gives me a reason to believe differently, I think Hellickson will be pitching in Durham or in another organization to open the 2010 season.
Of course, all of these projections are really just an educated guess. In actuality, a prospect from the group of Mitch Talbot, Heath Rollins, and Chris Mason could be better than Price, Davis, or McGee. I think all of those guys project to the bullpen currently, but, as with everything else, that is subject to change.
The great news is that the Rays farm system is absolutely loaded with pitching talent. The signing of Kazmir only gives the front office more flexibility to allow each prospect the time to fully develop. If only a few of the Rays top prospects develop into the type of player they are projected to be, then the organization has positioned themselves to have one of the Top 5 pitching staffs in baseball for a multi-year stretch.
May 16th, 2008 at 7:09 pm
What about Jackson?
May 16th, 2008 at 10:25 pm
I talked about Jackson yesterday in Part One. It is just down the page a bit. Let me know if you have any thoughts or questions.
May 18th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
What is with the Rays pitchers today? They all seem to need a freeking seeing eye dog to find the plate. What is with these walks??? Pitching like this is losing ball pitching.