This is part one in a two-part series that examines the impact of the Scott Kazmir extension on the future of Rays’ starting rotation. Part one takes a look at its impact on the current rotation.
The announcement yesterday of Scott Kazmir’s contract extension is, without a doubt, one the most important moves in franchise history. Not only does it lock up the Rays’ young ace for the next four seasons, but it will also a have major impact on the plans for Tampa Bay starting rotation over those years. If you are even a casual fan of the Rays then you are aware of the wealth of talented young pitchers that the Rays possess in their farm system. The popular saying is that you can never have enough pitching, which is absolutely true, but the Rays are going to run into a situation in the near future where some tough decisions will have to be made.
Before we ponder the unknown, lets look first at what we know to be true. Barring injury you can pencil in these two names at the top of rotation through 2012:
1. Scott Kazmir
2. James Shields
This past offseason, without the fanfare of the Scott Kazmir deal, the Rays inked James Shields to a contract extension that will keep him under team control through 2014 with a contract that could be worth up to 44 million dollars. Some people in baseball questioned committing that much money to a pitcher that many deemed “unproven”, but Shields continues to make the front office look great with his tremendous start to 2008 season.
Shields has only a minor history of injuries, shoulder surgery at the Low-A level, and, with his seemingly flawless mechanics, the risk of injury should be minimal. Even if Shields never improves above his current, which I believe he can, his contract will look like a steal when it is time to pick up his option years. I have every expectation that Shields will be a frontline starter in Tampa Bay at least through the end of his contract.
Moving on to Kazmir, to be honest, I am still a little stunned by the extension. In my mind, I had already made peace with Kazmir’s impending trade this offseason, and building our future rotation without him. Obviously, his extension changes everything that I had projected in the past. Kazmir was one of the top starters in MLB over the second half of last season, and, with an All-Star game already under his belt, it is easy to project Kazmir as one of the game’s elite pitchers over the next four seasons.
The only caveat with Kazmir has always been the risk of injury. That is one of the reasons that I am perfectly fine with the length of Kaz’s new deal. If Kazmir remains healthy then the Rays have an experienced, elite talent locked up reasonably through 2012, but the deal also protects the club if Kazmir blows out his elbow. Hopefully that fear will never come to fruition, and Kid K will be striking out Red Sox and Yankees for years to come.
Now, lets take a look at the guys that I think will have a legitimate chance to lock down a rotation slot in the next few years.
When Matt Garza was acquired by the Rays this off-season from Minnesota he was automatically slotted into #3 slot in the rotation. Despite some shaky outings and an injury scare, Garza has rebounded to showcase the promising talent that made him one of top pitching prospects in baseball. Garza, who is under team control through 2013, will be given every opportunity to succeed with the Rays. Management would not have dealt former #1 overall pick Delmon Young to the Twins unless they were convinced that Garza would be a fixture in the rotation for many years. Therefore, I feel confident slotting the trio of Shields, Kazmir, and Garza in the rotation for 2008 and beyond.
After Garza, it becomes really difficult to predict what the Rays will do with the other two slots. One guy who has to be under consideration is the much-maligned Edwin Jackson. “Nuke”, who is currently riding a streak of 15 consecutive shutout innings, has put together his most impressive season to date in 2008. I have no idea what “it” is, but many people in the organization seem to believe Edwin is closing to finding it. Still, I think there is one central argument against including Jackson in the organization’s long-term plans.
Jackson is about to become expensive for the Rays to keep on their roster. Starting next season, Jackson will be eligible for salary arbitration, which could push his salary north of one million as early as 2009. While not a ton for a quality starting pitcher, the question becomes is Jackson $700,000+ better than someone else in the organization who could fill his rotation spot. If he is finally starting to harness his talent then answer is probably yes, but I would like to see the rest of the season play out before making a decision. Taking those factors under consideration, I think the most likely scenario is that Jackson is traded prior to or after the 2009 season. It is always scary to let a talent like him go, but there are equally talented, cheaper options within the organization. If he continues to build on his impressive start to the season then I think people may be surprised with the type of return Jackson could generate in a potential trade.
Finally, I just don’t see a future spot in the rotation for Andy Sonnanstine. Many people, including myself, see value in Sonny as a back of the rotation starter, but is he a better option there than Garza or Wade Davis? The truth is that Sonny has a 5.64 ERA and an ERA+ of 78 in 30 career starts (180.1 IP). His peripheral numbers are impressive, but, for all the talk of how was unlucky he was last season, he has only been marginally better this season. His K/9 is lower, his walk rate is worse, his ERA is down (to 5.07), and his WHIP is basically the same. That is not to say that it has all been bad for Sonny. If you agree with Joe Morgan that the most important stat to judge a pitcher is wins then he is the staff MVP. I will let you guys decide for on your own. I’m not sure if Sonnanstine’s future is in the bullpen or with another organization, but I don’t think it is in the Rays rotation.
Part Two, which will be released tomorrow, will take a look at the impact of the extension on the young arms in the Rays minor league system.
May 15th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Good start to this Jon-
I am eager to read tomorrow’s installment, as I am curious to see how the Rays will put 9+ pegs in 5 holes…
I see Davis or McCgee as a Closer with Morlan as the setup guy in the future, obviously Price will be considered for the rotation. But, don’t forget about Mason, Talbot, Hellickson, and Houser….