Isn’t it amazing that the Rays are 18-16, 3.5 games out of first place and by far in better shape than they’ve ever been, but we have reason to feel a little disappointed that the record’s not a few games better? I didn’t think I’d see the day this soon, but I guess it happened.
I suspect that this isn’t going to be a very popular sentiment around these parts, but here goes: I don’t think the Rays should make a single roster move for a player outside the organization right now. I know lots of people think the Rays need another arm or another bat to play right field, but I’m ready to go to war with the players we’ve got. Cliff Floyd is coming back in a few weeks, Willy Aybar will soon return to shore up the infielder, and Gabe Gross is finally starting to find his stroke. Before long, the Rays are going to have a very crowded bench and some tough (and not-so-tough… NATHAN HAYNES) roster decisions to make. Since the Rays are, by many metrics, “a year ahead” of where they should be, I think it’s in our best interests to let it fly with the group we’ve got unless a slew of injuries forces the Rays to make some kind of deal.
I guess you could say that I’m not ready to part with any young talent yet unless it’s a deal absolutely lopsided in our favor. The Rays have a chance to develop a nucleus of players that can be around for years and years; there’s no reason to mess with that. Plus, let’s be honest, this team WILL start hitting. And when it does, look out, because the runs are going to come in bunches. On the pitching side, there’s not a single starter I’d want to drop right now, and the bullpen has been good enough to stay intact until at least Al Reyes returns and we see what we’ve got with him. Why mess with the chemistry and success these players have already had?
Unless you honestly believe that this is the year the Rays win the World Series, you have to know that maintaining a nucleus of good, young players is paramount to adding extra parts for the sake of adding them at this point.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:39 am
I agree with you absolutely. And I also think the hitting will come around. Floyd could be a major addition to the lineup, and may be back by next week. I think part of the offense’s problem has been Pena’s deep slump which I think he will overcome so that his bat becomes an asset again.
I see perhaps 2 hitters, Hinske and Navarro, who may regress somewhat. (Although, like you, I think Navarro will remain a useful hitter.) Otherwise, I don’t see anyone hitting above expectations and a few (Crawford, Iwamura, Longoria, Bartlett) who should do better. There are signs, as in Bartlett’s case, that they are emerging from their early season struggles.
With Floyd back, the lineup includes Iwamura, Crawford, Upton, Pena, Floyd, Hinske/Gomes, Longoria, Navarro, Bartlett. I think it reasonable to say there is not an easy out in the lineup, and quite a few tough hitters. And that will leave Gross and Aybar on the bench, both of whom have more value than ordinary reserves.
When he went down, Floyd only had 15 ABs, so there is not enough information to make any statements, but he has been a fine hitter in his career and at the time of his injury had 2 home runs, 2 BBs and just 2 Ks. His line was .333/.412/.800. Again, it means little to nothing, but it suggests that he was off to a good start. I was thrilled when we signed him, the best left handed bat available in the off-season in my view, and think his presence in the lineup makes it very powerful.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:44 am
I like Floyd, but don’t count on a guy his age with a shaky wheel staying healthy all the way through the season. I would like to see them try to solve the lead-off woes with CC up top of the order when Floyd comes back. He gives them pop down the order.
Showcase Reyes for a 5th OF in case Gross isn’t the answer.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
I agree that we don’t need to make a move right now. But if we are still in this same situation (3.5 games out) around the All-Star break, I think a move for a veteran pitcher would be a wise one. We have a plethora of young talent in our system, and we could part with a couple of pieces without throwing anything away. For instance, if the Braves are out of the playoff race at the break, Tim Hudson might become available. If someone of his successful experience becomes available, I think we can afford to make the move. It might cost us a lot, possibly a package of McGee, Houser, and Hammel, but it would be a move that would solidify our pitching staff even more, and would also probably make us the toughest pitching staff to face in the AL. I’m not saying we need to look at this deal right now, but I am saying that a deal like that should be a possibility if we are in a similar situation when July rolls around. The reason we can make a move like that without thinking twice about it is because of our very deep pitching pool. Even giving up McGee, Houser, and Hammel, still leaves you with Price, Hellickson, Davis, Niemann, Talbot, Mason, Cobb, and a few more to spare as well. There are pieces in place to make such a splash move, and I think if we are in a position to make a run at the playoffs, good ol’ Stu will make sure that something is done to put this team over the top.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
Mid-season trades of real consequence may depend on the stadium election. If they really have it on the ballot this fall (still an open question), they’ll have additional incentive to show the locals that they are serious about putting a winner out there and beating the Yankees. I wish that weren’t the case, but it is hard to ignore the politics (and probably a real reason why they never got serious about Bonds).
May 9th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
I agree with you also Scott, I think Aybar will be an important piece to the infield when he returns, and should have no trouble playing 2nd, 3rd, and SS to sure it all up… Floyd will be able to DH and that will leave Hinske/Gomes/Gross in RF. I don’t find that rotation for now, I still tihnk we overpaid for 4th/5th OF, but that’s a dead horse.
I also think we have some good non-roster guys @AAA that provide quality depth should the injury bug hit again in Dan Johnson (who I think should get the call should Floyd go down a second time, taking Haynes roster spot), and also Grant Balfour has been lights out, and should take Jason Hammel’s or Scott Dohmann’s spot soon… I tihnk Nathan Haynes will clear waivers once he is designated and will provide some depth @ AAA also. This isn’t even considering Zobrist, who in my mind is in a race with Aybar to get back. Also, Juan Salas is back in AAA, and could be called also.
We have killer depth- leave it alone, because we are ahead of schedule… Even if we are wild card contenders come trade time, I’d say let it be. No use selling prospects that we would probably kill to have later…
May 9th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
This is fantasy-land speculative and has no significance beyond the fun of imagining, but there was a note at mlbtraderumors.com that the Brewers might look to deal Sheets if they continue to flounder in the hopes of deepening their talent base with near major league ready players so they may compete over the next few years.
Sheets is always hurt, it seems, but he is also a stud pitcher when healthy, so it is a classic high risk/immense reward situation. If he could be had without giving up any of the elite prospects, say for a couple or three of the Mitch Talbot/Chris Mason quality hopefuls, I think the Rays should seriously consider it.
Obviously they would have to satisfy themselves about Sheets’s physical condition, but if they see the reward worth the risk, it could be a major coup. Sheets is still young enough to contribute for a few more years (he is not yet 30), and if healthy (that HUGE IF) would be an annual Cy Young candidate. He does not walk people and strikes out a ton of batters.
I would loath to part with the stars in the system, but for a package of lesser lights who do have prospect status, I think it would be worth serious consideration.
May 9th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
I would be worried about our own ability to pay for both Sheets AND Kazmir at the front of the rotation. The money will have to come from somehwere, and we don’t have infinite pockets.
May 9th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
Gus, CC is over aggressive to be a lead off hitter. He’s a free swinger
and doesn’t walk enough to lead off. On average he only sees about 3
pitches per at bat. He has walked only 6 times this year and has an
OBP of .306.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:35 pm
Sheets is dominant when healthy, but he is about as reliable as Rich Harden when it comes to being healthy. I said a guy like Tim Hudson because he is consistent, has successful experience and would be under team control for ‘09 as well. He would be a perfect fit if the Braves are out of contention, and we are in it, because even if we don’t make the playoffs with a guy like him, we are still unbelievably ready for a playoff run in 2009. I know his contract is pricey, but he’d definitely be worth it. Not to mention the fact that Stu isn’t being shy about expanding the payroll if he feels it would be worth it. Just picture the rotation and bullpen for a second:
1. Kazmir
2. Hudson
3. Shields
4. Garza
5. Jackson
LR-Sonnanstine
MR-Glover
MR-Howell, Balfour, or Hammel
MR/SU-Miller
SU-Reyes
SU-Wheeler
CL-Percival
That wouldn’t be a fun staff to face as an opposition in any league you could possibly imagine. By the way, I only put Sonny in the pen because he’s been there before and shown moderate success. Somebody would have to move there, so don’t bite my head off over it people. Again, though, I’m not saying we have to make a move, but I think if the organization thinks we could really use a successful veteran for a playoff run, we will go after someone like Hudson. He would cost a couple of high prospects, but would be under team control for more than just the remainder of the season. Just tossing it out there for thought in the future. This is what playing so well does for people. It sparks legitimate interest and a lot of fun thoughts. It’s a whole lot better to think about which successful veterans we could acquire for a playoff run, rather than looking at other teams’ minor league systems to see what we can get for our proven players.
May 10th, 2008 at 8:15 am
Hudson would be a great addition, and there is no question that Sheets is a huge risk. I bring him up rather than Hudson because, while it is far to early to project confidently, it seems that Milwaukee is in greater danger of falling out of it right now than Atlanta is and so might be more ready to deal, and because I saw Sheets mentioned at mlbrumors.com.
Your point about financial considerations certainly has to be taken into account, but as this is currently fantasy, I figure it can be dealt with when the time comes.
I will not “bite your head off” or repeat my objections to the notion of Sonnanstine in the bullpen, but cannot refrain from repeating that I think it counter-productive, perversely so in light of his particular strengths and weaknesses.
May 10th, 2008 at 10:45 am
People! Are we brain-dead? Trading McGee, Houser and Hammel for Hudson? Come on. We don’t need to make a trade. If we stay like this, we will be over .500 anyway, so why rush? Next year is the big year. McGee, Davis, Price, Niemann, Talbot, Mason and Houser will be fighting for spots. Why package a few of them, when you have Edwin Jackson? Will we have to trade some of them when we want to make a run? Yes of course. But honestly do we really need anything that badly? Why not save our money and pay Kazmir at the end of the year? We don’t need a veteran pitcher so bad that we package the future. Look next year is THE YEAR. Pitching will be up and who knows maybe even our first pick this year (please be Pedro Alvarez) will come up. We shouldn’t risk the future because you can never have enough pitching.
May 11th, 2008 at 8:47 am
Nextwave- You package guys like McGee, Houser and Hammel because they are guys who could end up not fitting at their expected time of arrival. McGee will be going up against Price for a lefty starter in the rotation, in which he will lose that battle. Houser could possibly turn into a lefty reliever, sure, but we have Miller and Howell who are doing well. Hammel already has been pushed out of the rotation, and, I think, he’ll be better off in the NL. Jackson is still highly regarded as a player by all other organizations because of his huge ceiling. Now that he’s been tapping at the ceiling more often, it would be stupid to just turn him now. What we are noticing is a fantastic problem to have as an organization. As I mentioned before, trading those 3 guys I said, we’d still have Hellickson, Price, Niemann, Talbot, Davis, and Mason, amongst others. There’s a ton of depth here, and always room for more, but as Bob said, only if the Braves are out of it, the Rays could definitely make the move. I don’t see Sheets being worth a ton in a trade because of his injur history. It would be dumb of us to trade a kid like McGee for a guy who is really only a rental player for the remainder of the year, and could be hurt 2 weeks after the big splash trade it would take. FriedCo. has shown that they are more interested in players who have more time on their contract if they are going to trade for them, and give up valuable prospects.
And by the way, I think the Rays will go after Tim Beckham, the High School SS from GA, with the first pick. Most cases you go with the top talent on the board, but in this case, both players are pretty much listed as equal on he board. So, I think the case will be made that our SS depth in the system is rather weak, and need could end up being the deciding factor. It’s not like it’s a problem with either player being picked though. Both are outstanding in their own right. I just think the Rays will go with Beckham. I have seen some people mention the FSU catcher Buster Posey, who I think will be a great catcher in the pros some day soon, but with Navarro looking like the catcher he has always been touted as, I think it would be a waste of a pick. The pick will be between Beckham and Alvarez, that is what I’m sure of.