RAYS 5, Jays 3: Just what the “Doc”-tor ordered
By Scott Caruso | April 23rd, 2008 | Posted in Game Recap
On paper, a Roy Halladay-Jason Hammel matchup looks severely lopsided. But that, my friends, is why they don’t play the games on paper.
Hammel-time: 6 innings of 3-run ball and another fine outing by Jason Hammel. His only kryptonite was Matt Stairs, who hit two bombs off of him. Aside from that, he scattered just 2 other hits. The 4 walks were a bit troublesome, but he made the big pitches that he needed to make and kept the Rays in the game long enough to give the offense a chance to win the game.
Jason is really giving the Rays a decision to make once Scott Kazmir comes off of the disabled list. Which of the “Little Three” gets demoted from the starting rotation? Is it Edwin Jackson, he of the most inconsistent stuff on the planet? Is it Andy Sonnanstine and his “3 home runs one game, 3-hit shutout the next” routine? Is it Hammel and the “I don’t look overpowering, but I just threw 6 more innings of 3-run ball” gag? Your guess is as good as mine, but Hammel certainly has earned himself more starts. It likely comes down to how Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine perform in these upcoming starts. Though it’s hard to see a situation where the Rays drop Edwin from the rotation just yet, they might not have much of an option in the interest of putting the best possible team on the field.
Evan Almighty: I had heard that Evan was an above-average third baseman, but he’s even better than advertised. He makes some downright filthy plays down there at third, has a cannon for an arm, and turns a double-play as well as any third baseman I’ve seen. He bailed Hammel out a few times with some great glovework down there at the hot corner. Is my man crush showing yet?
Oh yeah, and he delivered the game-tying RBI single.
Carlos Pena, Rally-Killer: Okay, so he DID deliver a single today. But he also struck out twice – both times with runners in scoring position and once with the bases loaded and just one out. That’s simply unacceptable. At what point does it go from being an unfortunate slump to a dangerous trend? Not yet, but it’s going to get there pretty soon. Should the Rays consider dropping him in the order until he begins to hit a little bit better?
Suggestion: switch Pena and Hinske in the lineup temporarily until Pena starts hitting the ball better. Aki, Carl, and B.J. are getting on base a lot now, and they are getting wasted with these terrible at bats by Pena. I fully expect him to break out of it, but we need to be proactive about it until then.
Most Exciting Man in Baseball: Is there anything more fun than watching Carl Crawford leg out a triple? No, no there isn’t.
No Bull: I love our bullpen. 3 innings of 2-hit relief to lock down another win. So THIS is what Major League Baseball is played like.
Series wins… are how you move up in the standings. The Rays are playing with “house-money” as they say tomorrow as even if they lose, they’ve taken the series from the Blue Jays. By stockpiling series wins, especially against teams that are considered “good” like the Jays, you move on up rather quickly.
Want something else to hang your hat on? Here’s what the Expected (Pythagorean) AL East standings are right now:
1. Toronto (12-10)
2. Boston (12-11, .5 GB)
3. Tampa Bay (11-10, .5 GB)
4. New York (11-11, 1 GB)
5. Baltimore (10-10, 1 GB)
Obviously it’s still early, but it looks as though the current standings are due for a bit of a downward trend. The Red Sox have simply won a few more games than they should have, while we have played a little below our expectation.
Tags: Blue Jays
April 24th, 2008 at 12:10 am
I don’t understand how you came up with these expected standings. Could you briefly explain it?
April 24th, 2008 at 12:15 am
Rather than calculate them myself, I got the standings off of ESPN.com. The Pythagorean (Expected) Standings are defined as:
“The Pythagorean formula is a sabermetrics formula devised by Bill James that aims to assess actual team quality.
In its simplest form, the Pythagorean formula states that if a team scores “RS” runs and allows “RA” runs, it has the following “Pythagorean” winning percentage:
PWP% = RS^2 / (RS^2 + RA^2)
Multiply this value by 162 (or whatever number of games have been played), and you have an “expected” win total that can be compared to a team’s actual win total.”
It’s been around for quite some time now and is a very crude way of figuring out how many games a team “should” win.
April 24th, 2008 at 7:45 am
Could Pena just have been a fluke last year?
April 24th, 2008 at 7:56 am
I’m not ready to call last year a fluke, yet, but his early-season trend this year is quite frightening.
April 24th, 2008 at 8:01 am
I think the only part of his game last year that might have been a fluke was the BA which was about 40 points higher than expected. Although he may not walk quite as much (which may have also resulted from his dangerous hitting last year) or hit 40+ home runs, he has always walked a lot and always hit home runs at a good rate. So while he may not match last year (I think he still can because the story is he altered his approach some which might account for the breakout season), he should remain a valuable hitter.
There is also some story that in his early years he was considered a hard-head which is why he rarely got a chance at full time duty and was prone to long slumps. That no longer seems to be an issue.
April 24th, 2008 at 9:43 am
It just seems from the eye test that Pena has been trying to yank everything, and last year he used left center and dead center quite a bit. Ever since the Yankees series, when the yanks played that EXTREME shift he has not seemed comfortable up there. He faked a few bunts, which makes me think it was in his head some.
He will be ok, but he is and will be more of a .250 hitter…
April 24th, 2008 at 10:51 am
Is A Rod a fluke, his numvers are down too.
April 24th, 2008 at 11:17 am
Richard, that’s not a fair comparison. A-Rod has consistently had elite production for over a decade. Carlos Pena has had only one good season in his entire career.
That said, like I mentioned earlier, I don’t think Pena’s a fluke. I think it’s just a bad slump.
April 24th, 2008 at 11:25 am
Does Pena’s slow start possibly change the thinking for who will be the Rays selection as the top pick of the draft? If Pena is still struggling come July (or not putting up the same great numbers he did in 2007), does it mean Pedro Alvarez is back in play?
One of the reasons Alvarez as the top pick was kind of shelved was due to the emergence of Pena at 1st. People felt the clog of Longoria/Pena would have relagated Alavarez to DH status. But does that change if Pena doesn’t get back to last year’s numbers, his new contract not withstanding?
April 24th, 2008 at 11:43 am
I like Alvarez. I think he’ll be a very good big league player. And I want to avoid him because of his signability issues.
April 24th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
How are you going to compare Arod and Carlos Pena?