I’m sure J.P. Howell’s not a stupid guy. He sees Scott Kazmir, James Shields, and Matt Garza firmly entrenched in front of him. He sees David Price, Wade Davis, Jake McGee, and Chris Mason coming up behind him. He sees Andy Sonnanstine, Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel, and Jeff Niemann standing next to him. His window to prove he can be an effective big league pitcher is closing very quickly, and there’s nearly half-a-dozen other hurlers trying to jump through it at the same time.
To say that the lefty with the tantalizing changeup has struggled in the big leagues is an understatement. He’s 5-14 in 33 career games, but the rest of the numbers look ugly, too. A 6.34 ERA. 1.61 WHIP. 74 walks and just 136 strikeouts. They all look like the numbers of a pitcher who’s bound for mop-up duty forever.
Frustrating - for him, for the Rays, for us - is that he’s done extremely well in the minor leagues during his career. He averages more than a K per inning down there and his WHIP is nearly half a run lower. He looks like the guy who was picked in the first round by the Royals a few years ago. It’s all about location, command, and confidence with him. Pitchers with his kind of stuff - Jamie Moyer and Tom Glavine come to mind - have been successful at the big league level, but not by walking 4 men per 9 innings and telegraphing their changeup and putting it right over the middle of the plate.
Perhaps he’s just another case of a player with a good bit of talent who will forever be the AAAA kind of player - bound to shuttle between the big leagues and minor leagues and serve as the mop-up man once he’s making the major league salary. You don’t see an awful lot of pitchers like Howell stuck out in the bullpen, though. John Halama and Terry Mulholland come to mind, but both of them had decent-to-good runs as starting pitchers before moving to the bullpen. Howell has never figured out how to do it.
There’s a group of people who think Howell is a natural fit to be a LOOGY in the future, a statement which I couldn’t agree with less. His changeup and his cutter are naturally more effective against right-handed batters than lefties, and his soft-tossing nature won’t really deceive any lefty-hitting sluggers. You might as well trot a really good right-handed pitcher out there rather than relying on Howell - at least the Howell that we’ve seen before.
No, I truly feel Howell’s best shot at long-term big league success is as a starting pitcher. I’ve never been shy about saying this before, but I like him a lot better than Edwin Jackson and I hope that if he out-throws E-Jax this spring that the team tooks a good, long look at him before just shuttling him back to Durham. So far, in his brief amount of work, the numbers have been there - 5 Ks and 0 ER in 2.2 IP - but all of that has come late in games against the same type of competition that he has already dominated in the minor leagues.
As I said earlier, with David Price knocking on the door (perhaps as soon as this summer), and Jade McDavis soon to follow in the next year or two, Howell is going to become a forgotten man unless he makes his mark soon. He needs to stand out. He needs to win a spot on the Opening Day roster and start getting big league batters out. He needs to consistently look like the minor league pitcher that’s made me want to see him given a starting spot. More importantly than anything else, though, he needs to make it for himself, because I can’t imagine there will be too many teams interested in a soft-tossing hurler who the Royals gave up on for Joey Gathright and who the Rays gave up on in his mid-20s.
And now, some links:
- I’m not the only guy who wanted to write about J.P. Howell. Marc Lancaster threw up a piece on him yesterday that makes mine look like nothing more than a cheap rip-off. Oh well. You win some, you lose some. There are some very interesting notes in there about how Howell is a changed man, looking less at excuses for why he didn’t succeed and more at ways in which he can succeed. It’s actually a fascinating look at the lefty, I think. (TBO.com)
- Alas, the Rays finally lost a Spring Training game, 8-4 to the Astros yesterday. Not sure if you caught this, but Carl Crawford actually barreled over the catcher during the game. Nicely done, C.C. Bossman Junior continues to mash, but Scott Dohmann and Scott Munter stunk up the joint in the later innings to blow this one. I know you don’t look too much at the numbers during the spring, but this is not the kind of outing that D’oh!-man needs to win himself a spot in the bullpen. (Recap/Box) — (The Heater)
- There are 135 guys whose names most people don’t know crowding the Rays’ minor league camp this week. Speaking of the minor leagues, I hope to be running out weekly Minor League Wrap again starting next week sometime, so stay tuned! (talkalabama.com)
- “Navi came to camp with a great attitude and in great shape,” said Maddon, a former catcher himself. “He just needs to gain confidence with game-calling. It takes time to nurture.” Cap’n Joe also praised Navi’s baserunning ability. (MLB.com)
- In the notes to that same article, David Price will make his Spring debut on Saturday against the Yankees. Here’s to hoping he puts one right in Johnny Damon’s backside on the first pitch he throws. (MLB.com)
- Agressive. One-of-a-kind. Fun. Gamer. Power. Chikara. All words that Jonny Gomes’ teammates use to describe him. He could be primed for a breakout year this season. Look out. (MLB.com)
- Thunder Matt is, by my count, the 4,637,219th person to predict that the Rays will finish .500 or better this season. Of course, most of them actually do so without the snide jokes about Evan Longoria’s name. Not that those are getting old or anything. (Thunder Matt’s Saloon)
- You’ll probably either really love this or really hate this: it sure sounds like Edwin Jackson has all but locked up a spot in the rotation in Joe Maddon’s mind. (St. Pete Times)
- Look out! There’s been a Chuck LaMar sighting! Everyone hide your valuables! (Philly.com)
- Eric Hinske, you’ve got a job in April. At least according to one blogger. (Rays Anatomy)
Tags: J.P. Howell
March 6th, 2008 at 9:25 am
Howell has been given plenty of opportunities to make this squad. Jackson and him threw great last spring, and they went with Jackson because he was out of options. Howell went on to throw well in the minors and was given his opportunity to start in the majors several times. He failed in just about every single outting. Jackson, on the other hand, struggled mightily in the 1st half of the season, and then it all clicked in the 2nd half. He has at least shown flashes of brilliance, whereas Howell simply hasn’t. I don’t know what you guys see in Howell, and why you think he’ll be better than Jackson. Jackson has long been considered a guy who could be a great pitcher in the majors. The same really hasn’t been said of Howell. I’m not saying the guy doesn’t deserve a chance, but if he gets another opportunity and blows it all away again, then everyone needs to finally give up on the guy. Howell doesn’t scare any big league hitter when they step into the box, and he probably never will. I have said for a long time that if Howell would find his fastball that he had in college, he would be much more successful. Then, he at least was throwing 86-88 MPH. Now, he tops out at about 84. You can’t have success in the majors if you don’t have at least 10-12 MPH differential between your fastball and changeup, and right now, he only has about 6-7 MPH differential between the 2 pitches. I don’t see him making this team this Spring, but I could see him being the 1st guy to get the call when a pitcher goes down at some point. Mostly because of the fact that he’ll be so dominating in Durham that we’d have to give him the chance again. But he’ll probably just fail again, and somehow you guys will make an excuse for him to be given another opportunity.
March 6th, 2008 at 10:48 am
Hey Scott, have been looking over the Rays projected line-ups over various blogs and was suddenly reminded of the mid-90’s Indians rosters (don’t ask me why). Lot’s of talent on the field, though the power is shifted a bit. Now if we could just go on the run they experienced, that would be something. LOL
March 6th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Scott,
I enjoyed the read on Howell and he is a really fascinating case to study. I am still in the camp that he just does not have the stuff to succeed at the Major League level. It is amazing that his numbers have been so strong in Durham, but I just can’t see him sticking in the league as a starter. I am not really that high on him as a loogy either, so I guess put me in the AAAA camp.
I guess me and A.J. agree that EJAX has so much more potential than Howell that you have to go down with him. Now, Edwin has to cash in on that potential eventually, and I think he started to do that in the second half of last season. We shall see how it shakes out.
March 6th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
yeah I enjoyes the reading but disagree with you in refering to Ejax
March 7th, 2008 at 6:51 am
Let the record show that not only did I predict the Rays to finish above .500 but I also think they’ll finish 3rd. Of course I was shouted down by the other writers and had to list them 4th in our preview.