I don’t post much regarding the Rays, and make it no secret that I’m a Cub fan first and foremost. However, I can’t help but be intrigued by this offense. I wanted to take a look at what the batting order did last year as a result. This was a terrible Achilles heel for this team. As a unit, the Rays leadoff hitters put up dismal numbers.
April - .307 / .386 / .525
Rocco Baldelli got the bulk of the time in April in the spot and it went extremely well as he put up .323 / .391 / .565 averages. The team played .500 ball in those games. Unfortunately, Carl Crawford was also used in that spot and saw the team go 2-5 when he did. Maybe I’m wrong on this, but just because a guy can run like the wind it does not mean he’s a leadoff hitter. Crawford has demonstrated over his career that the number two spot is his best spot in the order.
May - .149 / .271 / .376
Ouch!!! Those are brutal numbers, but I think I figured out what the issue was. I’ve narrowed it down to two potential causes. Seeing that Baldelli was still in the leadoff spot the majority of the plate appearances, something must have happened. First, I am curious to know if perhaps Jen Sterger was in the house more during the month of May and cause Rocco to be visually distracted. His strikeout rate and contact rate both declined during the month and eventually Elijah Dukes was tried in the spot. How’d that go? Dukes is playing elsewhere, does that answer your question?
June - .205 / .269 / .325
Man, it’s getting worse. We got on base more via singles, but the extra base hits continued to decline at at an alarming rate. Elijah Dukes continued to get a few chances in the role and put up an eye popping 0 for 17. It’s at this point that Akinori Iwamura got his shot and did not deliver, the team going a delightful 7-15 in those games.
July - .297 / .346 / .373
Thankfully the on base percentage rises again, but unfortunately the slugging still isn’t where we’d like to see it. Aki continued in the role and seemed to begin to figure it out. Unfortunately the team continued it’s poor play and went 7-19 in those games.
August - .268 / .333 / .407
Despite the batting average drop, the on base percentage did not drop as bad and the slugging increased. It seems like Aki began to feel a little more comfortable in the role and the Rays put up a 14-13 record in those games.
September - .282 / .339 / .410
The final month of the season continued to see Aki improve in the leadoff spot. His .290 / .350 / .430 numbers in the month are very acceptable to me. 11-15 are what the Rays did in those games, but overall it seems like Aki continued to show he has the potential to be a very good leadoff man.
That leads me to this question. Should Aki be the Rays leadoff man this year or does the job go back to Rocco?
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February 23rd, 2008 at 4:00 pm
It is and should be Iwamura. Although in 2007 his OBP hitting leadoff was only .336, his overall OBP was .359 and when leading off an inning it was .372. I really doubt that the lower OBP as the leadoff batter in 2007 is very meaningful; more important is that he does take pitches and can get on base.
Rocco, on the other hand, has a .324 lifetime OBP and rarely walks. He should bat down in the order, and one reason I think the Rays have a chance to be pretty good offensively is that he will not be in the 3-5 spot but more likely #6 or even 7 where he is more suited. Should his power develop as it seemed to for a while, he might fit higher, but is not well-suited to lead off.
Incidentally, although his power and decent BAs help, Soriano seems misplaced as the leadoff hitter on the Cubs. Why isn’t Lou considering Fukodome there?
February 23rd, 2008 at 4:20 pm
Because Soriano likes to hit leadoff.
In addition, it’s his best spot statistically over his career.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=soriaal01&year=00
February 23rd, 2008 at 5:37 pm
I suppose his stats are best when he hits leadoff, but is that necessarily what is best for the team? I agree that as he is such an important part of the offense it is important to get the most out of him, so I cannot argue he definitely should not be in the #1 spot, but it seems to me somewhat debatable that a person’s position in the lineup has that much effect on his performance. More likely it is a statistical accident which may have some psychological significance.
In any case, even at #1, his career OBP is .341 which is not particularly good. For all we know, were he to get enough PAs in the number 7 spot his numbers there would improve dramatically, but that would be no reason to hit him there. Apparently Fukudome’s strength is getting on base so it would seem logical to bat him first in front of the power.
February 23rd, 2008 at 6:15 pm
This was an excellent post, Joe. I also think Aki will develop into one of the leagues best leadoff hitters (~.360 OBP). There are not many great ones out there. Past Sizemore, Ichiro, Damon, and Roberts nobody pops out at me.