Incautiously Overoptimistic (Notes from the Field)
By Jon Wolfson | February 22nd, 2008 | Posted in General
I sat at home the night a group of friends of mine went to go see “No Country for Old Men.” I just wasn’t in the mood for a movie.
In the following days the adulation of the film hijacked much of my communication with those who had seen the movie. They’d all been blown away; made it sound like the best thing they’d ever seen on a screen.
By the time I got around to seeing the thing, it would have been necessary to have a Victoria Secret model fan me with a palm frond and hand feed me Milk Duds while I viewed the film in order for it to live up to the expectations I had unwittingly put on it.
But there was no Victoria Secret model. I had to use my own hands to eat Milk Duds. I found the movie slow and improbable. And if the ending was clear to you, I respect you as an intellectual superior.
Along with seeing movies, I’ve also been hanging around the ball fields here in St. Pete lately. Talk about high expectations.
In this, my fifth year hanging around the Naimoli Complex in February, I have never seen fans so overwhelmingly positive. The attitude is more that of looking back on a highly successful season rather than beginning one that seems promising. In the numerous conversations I had and strategically overheard this week, a vast majority were glowing with optimism. Only a couple of the folks I spoke with seemed to remember the outcomes of bygone Februarys brimming with only slightly lesser optimism: No preseason air of excitement has ever allowed this team to win more than 70 games; though the 100-loss mark has been breached thrice.
But don’t get me wrong, I certainly understand the optimism.
For starters, the list of villains in camp seems to have been whittled down to just a few. Of the people I spoke with, Dioner Navarro arose as the uncontested least pleasant sight on the field. (It will take a while for him to dig himself out of the hole he dug in the first half of 2007) Along with Navarro, I also heard a lot of negative buzz surrounding Jonny Gomes. (Why is he still around?)
As for Edwin Jackson, I seem to be the only person ready to kick him to the curb. I mean, don’t all of the up and coming arms make him an experiment no longer worth pursuing? No one I spoke to thought so: Potential potential potential. Jackson should have the word ‘Potential’ carved from solid gold and hang it above his fireplace.
The winner of this year’s “I’m Glad He is Not Mad at Me” award certainly goes to Cliff Floyd. The guy somehow makes 6’4” look like 7’4”, and there is no doubt in my mind he could clear cut the Ozarks in a week with just an axe (If he stayed healthy.)
Floyd and CC seemed to be having a good time around camp, and I saw them together quite a bit. Once, when Floyd and Crawford awaited their turn for batting practice, Floyd pointed out a decent looking blonde in the crowd and whispered something to Crawford that sent the normally stoic CC into a fit of uncontrollable laughter. I didn’t know Crawford laughed. (To the anonymous blonde’s credit, she noticed this and yelled, “I better see something good from you!” just before Floyd stepped up to the plate.)
During this same round of batting practice, B.J. Upton was beamed hard in the back by Jae Kuk Ryu. Perhaps Ryu thought Upton was an osprey, but the ball hit Upton good enough to make him send out a very loud, very frustrated yell as he stormed out of the box, ending his session. Ryu stood smiling. It happens.
Akinori Iwamura’s transition to second does not seem to be going as smoothly as one would expect. When I saw him playing third at camp last year, I was instantly blown away by the ease of his movements. Now at second, thought has infiltrated what was once instinct in the field, and it is noticeable.
Today they practiced catching players in run downs between second and third. If you have played baseball above a tee ball level, you know to try and keep the runner caught in a run down as close to the original base as possible. This way if the runner is safe, he is safe without having advanced a base. I was blown away by Aki’s ineptness in this area. He would allow the runner to advance three-quarters of the way to third before he would throw the ball to the third baseman. Aki’s transition to second could be more interesting than anyone would hope.
There is no doubt that 2008 seems to hold credible evidence that there is more to be excited about than excited-ness itself. The team is better. This is almost certain: The troublemakers are gone. The bullpen looks like it may be able to get outs. There’s a good mix of youth and vets. Don Zimmer is still doing what Don Zimmer does. It all sounds good. But expectations have a dangerous tendency to work inversely. And when the local papers are comparing the Rays’ top three starters to some of the greatest top threes in history before throwing a pitch; it’s probably time to install a governor on your consumption of hype.
But while I have tried to keep my expectations for this promising season at what I feel is a realistic level; my enthusiasm certainly matches any fans when it comes to one player hanging around St. Pete these days.
David Price is as advertised. From what I’ve seen of him, he may need a spit-shine in the minors, but he looks awfully ready to me. I have never seen life like he has in his fastball, and if he puts together a decent change-up the Rays could have the next…I’ll stop there.
February 22nd, 2008 at 6:27 pm
I don’t know Jon Wolfson. We need all the hype we can get. 10 years for BS has the hype looking very good for dedicated fans. You need the swagger and the optimism with the player ability to succeed.
February 23rd, 2008 at 6:05 am
I agree, Jon, that cautious optimism is probably more appropriate than assumptions that this team will contend. But I do not think that has anything to do with its history. The 2008 team is not the same team that won 66 games last year or that has never won more than 70, and while there may be some slight psychological effect of past losing seasons, I doubt it is particularly significant. What is important is the composition of this year’s team, not previous ones. Boston did not fail to win the 1986 World Series because of earlier failures nor are the Cubs unlikely to win it this year for any similar reason. That is superstition and nonsense concocted by sportswriters seeking an interesting angle.
More to the point, I think, are the specifics you remark on. Iwamura’s transition, Jackson’s lack of progress, the uncertainty surrounding Navarro and the like. As for Jackson, I don’t think it is a question of getting rid of him unless someone is ready to supplant him. The biggest names are almost certainly not there yet-Price, Davis, McGee. So the question is should Maddon select Niemann, Howell, Hammel or Talbot for his spot or keep Jackson there. I don’t see that the latter three have demonstrated they are better than Jackson, and with Niemann there may be legitimate reasons to give him more AAA time or to start him as a long reliever in the majors. Meanwhile, since I do not see clearly better options, I see no harm in extending the time for Jackson to prove himself. We are still talking about a 24 year old, after all, no matter how long he seems to have been around.
I am not surprised at the distaste for Navarro, although I think it is mistaken and short-sighted. But I am surprised at negativity about Gomes who is generally a popular character. I understand the criticisms of Jonny, but again, do fans really think that Ruggiano is a better option right now? As a RH part of a DH platoon, Gomes should have real value. As frustrating as his year was, against lefties in 2007 Gomes hit .313/.376/.542 and career-wise his numbers against lefties are .292/.396/.537. And if Baldellli goes down, chances are someone like Ruggiano will get their chance there.
February 23rd, 2008 at 10:16 am
“Kick him to the curb,” are you suggesting that the Rays release Edwin Jackson? Once again, bobr nailed it, I can add nothing to his post.
Your analysis of Aki and the rundown technique speaks to your level of experience on a baseball field. You are correct in your assertion that at the teeball level and maybe as high as Babe Ruth leagues, kids are taught to make the extra throw in order to move the runner towards the base he came from. At those levels there is more of a likelihood that the runner may actually be safe.
The teaching at higher levels, (say HS-professional ranks) is to make ONE throw, no matter which direction the runner is going. Further, whether you are playing second base or third base, the rundown technique is the same so to use that as any-type of guage as to how Aki will respond to second base is not reasonable. Aki will be fine at second base, in fact much better than fine.