Over the next few weeks, I plan on doing a bunch of these about the key Rays players heading into the coming season. Nothing too ground-breaking: just a recap of 2007 along with some of my own personal observations and a look towards the future. Today, we begin with Akinori Iwamura.
2007: There probably wasn’t a more closely-watched player during Spring Training last year than Aki. When he hit just .220 in Spring Training, people were already wondering if he wasn’t going to be able to handle baseball over on this side of the pond. It took about 30 seconds during the regular season to see exactly what Aki would be able to provide for the team.
Though he didn’t show much of the power that made him a star in Japan, Aki had a slick glove and a patient eye that made him both an excellent third baseman and a good hitter at the top of the order. Though he struggled to drive in runs during the season, he excelled at getting on base and always seemed to be in the middle of Rays rallies. He also finished second in the league in triples with 10 of them.
His strikeouts were too high, as he fanned 114 times during the season. That’s not surprising, though, if you look at his numbers in Japan, where he once struck out 173 times during a season. He was also adept and staying out of double-plays; he rapped into just 2 of them the entire season.
He moved from the bottom of the order to the top quite quickly, filling the leadoff void that the Rays have had for a few years, allowing Carl Crawford to bat in his more comfortable 2-hole.
2008: As has been reported ad nauseum, Aki is moving from third base to second this season to make room for the arrival of Evan Longoria. Even if he puts up the exact same numbers that he did in 2007, he becomes more valuable for playing a “non-power” position.
I don’t think it would be too crazy to think that he would improve his power numbers slightly (closer to the 12-15 home run range), while at least maintaining his other numbers and playing solid defense. With his quick feet and good arm, he and Jason Bartlett should form an adept double-play combo.
After having a year to adjust to life in America, he should be a lot more comfortable at the plate, helping him to cut down on those strikeouts a little bit more and avoid the pull-happy and fly-ball centric swing that he fell into when he struggled last season.
Best-case scenario: Aki exceeds all expectations and hits .300 with 20 homers and 75 RBIs this year. He plays near-Gold Glove caliber defense and erases all questions about whether or not he could completely adjust to America.
Worst-case scenario: Turning the double-play escapes him and it gets into his head, causing him to get even more pull happy and strike out more that he did last year. All key offensive numbers drop and his spot in the lineup soon follows
My Stat Projection*: .290./.370/.435; 25 doubles, 8 triples, 11 home runs, 50 RBI
Did You Know? His brother, Takashi Iwamura, was also a professional baseball player who spent two seasons with the Kintetsu Buffaloes. Coincidentally, the two were drafted in the same year (1997).
* - This stat projection is simply based on my own personal feelings and was not done with any kind of computer simulation or any other kind of statistical analysis.
- Aki’s in camp with a new haircut and another set of those crazy bats from last year. (TBO)
- Shawn Riggans is Joe Maddon’s front-runner for the backup catcher spot, as we have predicted all along. (MLB.com)
February 18th, 2008 at 9:05 am
Can’t we use the super cool DRays bay projection system? Please Please Please!!! On a side note, doesn’t the D in their name mean they should be fined $1 every time someone reads their site?
February 18th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
Joe - we’re fining that site 1/5th of $1 or .20 every time they post something. D is only 1/5th of the word that should not be spoken, we feel this fine is appropriate.
Scott - what is the basis of your statistical projection? A .290 projection seems pretty lofty for a batter that strikes out as much as Iwamura does. We’re hoping for .280 at best because the strikeouts limit his chances for success. Other batters who struck out as much as Aki did last year hit an average of .272.
I am interested in the foundation of your projections.
February 18th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
I wish people were fined a dollar each, we’d be amongst the largest contributor to the Rays of Hope foundation.
In fact; on the guide, I’m upset that the idea of selling it and donating all proceeds to the Montoyo fund didn’t come up sooner. I would’ve gladly paid to re-print projections from my own pocket for that cause.
February 18th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
The foundation of my projection is based partly on a slight bump from 2007 because of his “adjustment” to the big leagues (5 points is slight, IMO) and partly from a completely random guess that I made at it. Not very scientific, I’m afraid, but I like to be optimistic. :)
If you’re wondering if I’m using any kind of statistics program to get the numbers, I’m not. Though I am curious to find out how close I get on some of these players without the use of a computer program.
Wow.. the more I think about it, the dumber it sounds. What in the world good does it do to try and make projections like that? I’m a dummy… I’m probably not going to be doing that for any more players.
February 19th, 2008 at 6:24 am
Scott, actually I for one appreciates the stat line and hope you do it for all the players. Probably just don’t do precise-looking, computer-spitted lines like .278/.343/.412 or something like.