Time for another edition of the Question & Answer & Answer mailbag. Bill Chastain was nice enough to provide us with another mailbag this week, and I didn’t have anything else to write today. (MLB.com)
First up, Rich B has a question about 2 of our starters:
I have a hunch that J.P. Howell and Andy Sonnanstine would do great in the ‘pen based on the control they’ve shown over the first three innings. Do you agree? Howell had a no-hitter in four innings, but was bad after that.
– Rich B., TampaI’m more convinced Howell belongs in the bullpen than I am Sonnanstine. Why? Howell would give the team a competitive lefty out of the ‘pen. I like the way he battles and he gives hitters a different look, and, as you noted, they seem to catch on against Howell the second time around the order.
On the other hand, Sonnanstine seems to have a way of keeping hitters off balance longer, whether it’s using different arm angles, different pitches, or doing as he did at the end of the season by relying more on his fastball. The bottom line is there are two open spots in the Rays’ rotation heading into Spring Training, so there are going to be some interesting candidates for the bullpen among the pitchers who don’t win one of the slots.
Well, I’ll be. An intelligent question. Although, you closed it with “Howell had a no-hitter in four innings, but was bad after that.” I think you’re referring to a specific game, but pretty much every pitcher in baseball history has had at least one game where he’s thrown 3 or 4 no-hit innings. Not sure what that proves.
When Chastain says he “likes the way Howell battles” does he mean that he likes the .825 OPS he has allowed over his career? Or maybe its that his lefty split is nearly identical to his righty one?
Don’t get me wrong, I’ve also been a fan of Howell because of what he’s done in the minor leagues, but I have no idea how you can extrapolate from his big league performance that he’d be a more effective reliever than a starter. I’ll be the first to admit that his numbers suck and he doesn’t belong in either spot, at least not yet. I suspect the team may give him a look in the bullpen at some point this year, but that’s only because of the huge amount of starting pitching we’ve got.
I think Sonnanstine, on the other hand, might be a ‘pen candidate sometime down the road, but it’s not going to be this year. He’s gotta be almost a lock for that 4th starter spot, with Edloss, Niemann, Howell, and Hammel duking it out for spot #5. He was good enough last year to warrant another look.
I don’t have to grapple with the grueling Florida sun, but anyone who states that they retain some kind of affinity for Tropicana Field has to be out of their mind. It looks like the team plays half its games within the confines of a crypt. How could one pine away for such a stifling atmosphere?
– Tom L., San FranciscoSounds to me like you have never been to Florida or Tropicana Field. Generally, I believe the national perception of Tropicana Field is negative based on the team’s poor performance, and over the years this negative publicity built up through a “piling on” mentality. Having said that, the new ownership definitely agrees with you about wanting to take the Rays outdoors. And given the desired location for their new stadium — which is on the water — I think this proposed stadium could be a real showplace.
I’m a little ticked off at Chastain for this one because I think he really had a chance to defend the Trop, the fans, and the team, but he chickened out and gave a much more generic response. Way to stick up for us, Bill.
That said, he was right in what he STARTED to say: the Trop gets a TON of unwarranted negative publicity. It looks a little bit goofy from the outside, but there is nothing wrong with the inside of the place. It is temperature-controlled, comfortable, and LOUD. I THINK the crypt reference might be to the fact that the games inside the Trop look darker on TV than do games at other fields? If that’s so, it’s only because of the crappy cameras that our local stations use, because the place is plenty bright on the inside, too.
Either way, the IDEA of the new stadium is here to stay. It’s just a matter of time to see if it sticks or not.
How long do you think it will be before speedster Fernando Perez is the leadoff hitter for the Rays? His on-base percentage in 2007 was .425.
– Howard, N.J.Perez is one of the Rays’ pleasant problems. The speedster is a real talent who will likely be the center fielder at Triple-A Durham this season. From what I have heard and read about him, he’s close to being Major League-ready. Just one problem: B.J. Upton is in center field for the Rays. As with most young players who have potential, the Rays would rather have Perez playing every day, which he should do at Durham, rather than coming off the bench and occasionally starting at the Major League level.
It’s going to be at least 2010 before Perez is playing every day for the Rays. Once the Cliff Floyd contract runs out, a spot opens up and then you can shift some players around (B.J. or Rocco to DH, the other in right field), which could open up a spot for Perez. A lot can happen in 2 years, though. Perez could prove to be terrible. Upton and Baldelli could be Gold Glovers. The Rays might find a trade partner who is willing to sell us the farm to get Perez. There are just so many things that could happen that it’s so hard to try an project out that far.
How long until top catching prospect John Jaso makes it to the team? He tore up Double-A Montgomery and showed that he is ready for Durham.
–Steven G., Ballwin, Mo.I don’t look for Jaso to be with the team on Opening Day, but stranger things have happened. Right now Dioner Navarro, Shawn Riggans and Mike DiFelice are blocking Jaso’s way. I think the Rays want to see Jaso compete at the Triple-A level before thinking about giving him the call.
This year will not be Jaso’s year, but I think he’ll get a serious look in 2009. If Dioner Navarro puts up just mediocre numbers, or if Cliff Floyd (there’s that name again) hurts himself like he’s wont to do, it could open up a spot for Jaso to split time between catcher and DH. He’s done nothing but hit in the minors, but he’s probably looking at a full year at Durham. Of course, a number of injuries to guys like Navarro and Shawn Riggans could also that.
Do you think Evan Longoria has a chance to be a star in the years to come? I have met and talked to him about baseball and he has the talent, but most importantly, he has the mental part of the game down. I see him doing very well next year, maybe pushing for Rookie of the Year.
–James B., Claremont, Fla.I have talked to Longoria as well, and he is an impressive kid. From everything the Rays have said about his abilities, the Rays believe their top prospect is the real deal and should be earmarked for stardom. But there are more players who have looked like stars at Triple-A then washed out at the Major League level than there are success stories. That’s because of the quality of baseball played at the Major League level, which is drastically different than Triple-A. So while Longoria has the look of a can’t-miss prospect, he still has a challenge in front of him.
“Do you think Evan Longoria has a chance to be a star”? Did you seriously ask that question? I’m not even going to dignify that with a response.
What are the Rays’ plans for Carl Crawford? They could potentially trade him now while he is still under contract with options, as his value would be extraordinary with his age and skill set. Because realistically, the Rays probably won’t be able to keep him around with the salary he will command in future years. Also, the older he gets and the closer he gets to free agency, the lower his value will be.
It would be a Miguel Cabrera-type situation, where the Rays could get three to five players/prospects for Crawford alone, and most likely they would be able to put themselves into a position where they could get some of the best up-and-coming prospects in the game along with some Major League talent as well. Crawford is an awesome player, but he also could potentially net three young pitchers and up to around five players. This is the way small-market teams build for the long haul. Look a little farther south at what the Marlins have been able to do, turning over their roster for prospects in the past. What are your thoughts on the subject?
– Josh L., Lebanon, Ill.For starters, I think you are right in your contention that the Rays could land three to five players for Crawford, who is an extraordinary talent. And from what the team management has said, they are always willing to consider any deal that will make the team better. But for now, they have a sparkling Rolls Royce with Crawford and I think they are content to take it out for a spin.
You REALLY shouldn’t look at the Marlins for an example of what to do to build a team. I’m much more interested in being competitive for a number of years rather than competing one year, then dropping off for 6 years, before competing again for one more year.
That said, sometimes a player and his worth to a team is more important than what you can get for him on the trade market. C.C. is the face of the franchise, the team’s most popular player, and one of the most exciting players in the game. He is essentially the embodiment of what the Rays are - young, fast, hungry, exciting. To trade him now - or soon - would probably be seen more as a regression than a progression, no matter what is brought back in return. Could you get 4 or 5 players for him? Sure you could. But would you want to? It’s not as if the Rays have a ton of holes left to fill, anyways.
Tags: mailbag
January 30th, 2008 at 11:02 am
The Howell-Complex is something I have had a number of conversations about. My argument is that he reminds of a young Jamie Moyer. He is a junk-ball lefty in the truest form. The problem is, if you go look at Moyer’s career, he wasn’t so good when he was younger.
Soft-tossers can win, but they need to learn how to win and there is no room for error. A young pitcher that throws 97 also needs to learn how to win, but until he does, he can get by on pure heat and be fine. Guys like Moyer don’t have that luxury. So it is my contention that he either needs to stay in the minors as long as possible or make him a long reliever/change of pace guy. He will never win 20 games, but he could be Moyer-lite in 5 years.