Don’t get me wrong: If the Rays make a run in ’08, I’ll be happier than the time it rained naked ladies holding 18-year-old bottles of scotch. But I’m also a realist (or is it pessimist?)
The AL is simply too rich with organizations hitting their peak potential in ‘08 while the Rays are still (quite brilliantly) building up.
Why be weary of ‘08 being the year? There’s the World Series winning Red Sox who remain largely intact and very capable of repeating, the Angels who are easily capable of thwarting any kind of repeat, and I don’t know what the Tigers could do to get any better. Not to mention the omnipresent Yanks.
But what the Rays are very much in line for in ‘08 is the elusive .500 season; that thing of Tampa Bay folklore that seems to get sighted every May only to disappear in June.
But even a season in which the Rays win as much as they lose lies in a very delicate balance. A lack of depth and plethora of unproven talent may make even .500 tough. (The depth is undoubtedly coming, but it’s a season or two away.)
Here’s a list of six things that must happen for the Rays to make 2008 the first winning season in franchise history.
The New Old Pen
This perennial pariah has been upgraded from “Bomb” in 2007 to “Time Bomb” in 2008.
There’s no doubt that Al Reyes and Troy Percival can throw, but there’s also no doubt that at ages 37 and 38 respectively and each with a history of injury, they are much closer to their last pitch than their first.
However, in 2007 Reyes proved serviceable as a closer and Percival (Who has already been given the closer role in ‘08) had a 1.80 ERA and 36 K’s in 40 innings for St. Louis. So there’s no question these guys can still get outs; just a lot of questions about how many more outs they’re good for.
Best Case: The old guys shut the door on the 8th and 9th innings all season.
Best Case II: Strong first halves inflate trade value and are dealt for more than they’re worth to a stretch run team.
Worst Case: A wasteland of exploding tendons.
Likely Case: One of these guys is bound to feel a pinch or two in the old throwin’ arm at some point this season. Smart money says Dan Wheeler will get a look at the 8th or 9th inning before too long.
House of Pena?
Perhaps the most interesting of the wildcards, Carlos Pena enters 2008 with the luxury of knowing that even a significant dip from 2007’s production could still exceed expectations. And perhaps this lack of pressure is just what he needs to keep his remarkable work at the plate on track.
Best Case: 2007 season all over again.
Worst Case: Return to 2001-2006 form.
Likely Case: A plus contributor to the middle of the lineup, look for steady power and high OBP to balance out a low batting average.
Dioner Tomorrow?
Dioner Navarro seems to be the man in the plan, but for the love of God start hitting.
The Rays can’t afford his bat to be the rally killer it was for much of 2007; and with no depth at this position, that’s scary.
Best Case: Builds on strong second half in 2007 and just keeps getting better.
Worst Case: Plays like first half 2007 Dioner Navarro.
Likely Case: Navarro set the bar awfully low in 2007, so a pleasant surprise both offensively and defensively is in line.
Speed Kills
The Rays have a chance to do real damage if they run smart and run often. An encouraging model? Maddon’s Alma Mater, the Angels.
Best Case: Hit and runs, SB’s and extra bases set the table for the power guys.
Worst Case: Speed potential kept as a reserve threat instead of primary weapon.
Likely Case: This team is going to run. If they don’t lead the AL in SB’s, they’ll be close. (Finished 3rd in SB’s in the AL in 2007 behind the O’s and Angels.)
Get Defensive
While the outfield had a few hiccups due to inexperience and injury in 2007, the middle infield was a disaster. Brendan Harris was at times Cantu-esque, and Josh “Who the hell is Josh Wilson” Wilson was not much better; neither proved to be more than a stopgap.
Best Case: Aki plays second as well as he did third, Bartlett locks down SS and Longoria (assuming…) is as advertised at third.
Worst Case: Lived it in 2007.
Likely Case: The absence Delmon Young’s arm in right field will be felt, but the aggressive moves to improve the infield will outshine the missing cannon.
When Edwin?
If any player has benefited more from being out of options than Edwin Jackson, please show him to me. Jackson’s starts in 2007 ranged from brilliant to fecal, and his future in the organization from bright to non-existent.
Best Case: Pitches up to amazing potential.
Worst Case: Continues mixing putrid with phenomenal, further extending his reign as the world’s biggest question mark.
Likely Case: One of the AAA up and comers makes Jackson expendable as early as Spring Training and he becomes someone else’s potential problem.
January 16th, 2008 at 8:40 am
Solid work-
I agree on most fronts…
The ‘pen still scares me until they prove otherwise. I have seen way too many blown leads in the 7th, 8th and 8th innings to last the whole rest of my lifetime. I am not ready to breathe easy until I see Perci and Al mow em down nightly.
Navarro should have all of the incentive in the world, because IMHO John Jaso is a legit catching prospect (Riggans in some ways also) and will be nipping at the heels should Navvi put up another stinker.
I am AFRAID of the lack of middle infield depth. If Aki or Bart gets hurt who gets called up? Is it Zobrist at 2nd then?, E-Johnson? Cannizaro? Do they dare put Upton back there, and shift Rocco back to CF for a minute- hmmm
I would really like to keep Edwin because of the immense amount of talent, but this has to be a put up or shut up spring for him. His periphs must get better. I mean is a WHIP of 1.45 too much to ask?
January 16th, 2008 at 9:58 am
Well-done Jon. Perhaps there is a 7th “Maker or Breaker”, obvious I know, but still critical. Without your catchy title, it is that those who shone in 2007 continue to do so in 2008. You mentioned Pena already, but in addition:
Best Case: Upton cuts down on the Ks while rediscovering his outstanding plate discipline and increasing his power output while Crawford takes his game to the next level and Iwamura excels at 2B offensively and defensively. Kazmir breaks out to Cy Young status and Shields and Garza create arguments over who is among the best #2 starters in the league. Sonnanstine proves himself a solid mid-rotation starter.
Worst Case: Upton’s K rate is exploited by pitchers, Crawford stagnates and settles in as a speedy left fielder with poor walk rates and medium range power. Iwamura cannot make the pivot. Kazmir continues his inconsistency and Shields proves a one year wonder while Garza disappoints. Sonnanstine simply doesn’t have enough stuff and the home runs kill him.
Likely Case: One of the hitters and one of the pitchers is less than hoped for while at least one of each shows real growth.
I know it is a lot of different players, but it is really one issue-the development of our still young stars.
January 17th, 2008 at 7:06 pm
Nice read. I’m hoping (and would expect) the offense to maintain a similar level as last year (maybe a bit less production from Pena, but an increase in right from Floyd/Gomes). I think the biggest change we can hope for is an improvement in defense. How many time last year can you remember where we have a routine double-play or ground-ball out that isn’t made that turns into a 2+ run inning? I can think of more than a few unfortunately. Solid defense can change the whole mindset and attitude of the team and pitching staff, and improve the pitching numbers as well. I think the Rays still pull off a trade for a 3rd baseman who’ll slide into a utility role once Longoria is called up. I had a chance to see Cannizaro play in Scranton, I think he’ll surprise a few people and has a chance to make the team. Also like the idea of having Guzman work in right field as well. Could be an Upton situation in the making. Should be a fun and exciting season!