The Only Top 13 Prospect List You Will Ever Need
By Scott Caruso | January 15th, 2008 | Posted in General
First of all, let me answer a few questions about this list…
Why are you compiling this list?
Because every other website does one. Far be it from me to be the only Rays blogger in America that doesn’t have one.
That’s not a very good attitude to take. Why do one if that’s how you’re going to act?
It’s important to give our readers a chance to debate over who should be in what spot, or to perhaps give some kind of insight that I might not have realized.
What do you have against doing the list, then?
Because most of us aren’t experts. Most of us haven’t seen any of these guys play, and if we have, it’s been in videos or in a very brief game or two. It’s best to leave these lists to the experts, especially since most of these lists are very much based on what experts tell us about these players anyway.
Go on.
Sometimes, we as bloggers take ourselves way too seriously. I prefer to just try to have fun with it and give you my own analysis of the news stories of the day. Occasionally, something like this comes about and it’s my turn to do one. I’m sorry if I sound pessimistic to you, but I just think some of us pretend to be “experts” when we really aren’t. At the end of the day, though, the best way to promote the site will be through this prospect list which will eventually get posted on another site in the future.
Why 13?
Why not 13?
And now, to the list…
1) Evan Longoria - Come on. Did you really expect anyone else? This guy is immediately the top candidate for AL Rookie of the Year in 2008 as long as he starts in the big leagues sometime in April or May. Plus, he’s got the best name in the organization. I’ll bet you he’s heard the “Are you related to Eva? She’s so hot!” question about 654,217 times so far.
As for the numbers, they jump off of the page with Longoria. .299/.402/.520 in just under 500 at bats last season. 26 home runs. He plays the field well. He runs well for a guy his size. There’s nothing not to like about him. Plus, he plays a position that is traditionally very difficult to fill with an elite offensive player.
The only questions about him relate to his strikeout total and how he will mentally adjust to the big league game. Joe Maddon thinks he’ll be fine, and I’ve stated all along that he should start the season as the third baseman. I suspect we’ll know sooner rather than later if he’s going to be the guy or not.
2008 Expectation: Top 3 for AL Rookie of the Year
2) David Price - Normally, I wouldn’t even think about putting a guy this high that hasn’t thrown a single professional pitch. But everyone else seems to think he belongs this high, so who am I to argue? I honestly thought about knocking him down to around 5th just based on that basic principle, but when you do what he did at Vanderbilt, it’s hard to ignore the sheer talent in his arm.
What exactly DID he do at Vanderbilt?
Dick Howser Trophy Winner
Golden Spikes Award Winner
Collegiate Baseball’s Co-National Player of the Year
CSTV’s College Player of the Year
First-Team All-American by Collegiate Baseball, National
Collegiate Baseball Writers Association and Rivals.com
Brooks Wallace Award Winner
Roger Clemens Award Finalist
SEC Male Athlete of the Year
SEC Pitcher of the Year
First Team All-SEC
No. 1 Overall Draft Pick (Tampa Bay Devil Rays)
How’s that for starters? How about this line: 133.1 IP, 11-1, 2.63 ERA, 17 GS, 5 CG, 194 K, 31 BB, .199 BAA
Yeah, that’s pretty darn good. And that’s why he’s #2 on the list.
2008 Expectation: Late-season call-up. Could see innings if Edloss Jackson, Andy Sonnanstine, and/or Jeff Niemann falter.
3) Reid Brignac - This is the one that I suspect is going to cause the most debate. On most everyone else’s list, Brignac sits down at #5 or so. Why did I put him so high? Honestly, it’s based mostly on personal preference. I LOVE shortstops that can hit, plain and simple. I know it’s stupid to show such biased affection towards one position, but I can’t help it. We’ve seen what can happen with a shortstop that can mash - A-Rod, Ripken, Tejada, Nomar. Now, by no means am I suggesting that Brignac will be the next Nomar Garciaparra, but just the fact that he COULD be a shortstop in that mold is enough for me to push him this high.
His 2007 season wasn’t nearly as bad as many people would like you to believe - .260/.328/.433, and his strikeouts were down while his walks were up. Plus, he cut down on his errors, too. He improved in those key areas, and though his percentages weren’t great, everything else was good enough to stand on its own merits.
2008 Expectation: Full season at AAA. Could compete for starting job in 2009, and definitely by 2010.
4) Jacob McGee - Aside from Evan Longoria, perhaps no Rays prospect has been more talked about over this past year than McGee. To say he came out of nowhere would be overstating it, but he has certainly emerged as a HUGE pitching prospect in this organization. In fact, putting him ahead of David Price - at least right now - might not be a stretch. Plus, he’s a lefty.
He has struck out a lot of guys, his walks are manageable, and minor league hitters haven’t found a way to hit him yet. And, oh yeah, he’s 20 years old. He’s got a plus fastball and a “plus-plus” cruve according to scoutingbook.com. There are concerns about his durabilty, which has led some to speculate he could end up in the bullpen. I don’t see it - at least not yet - but it’s something to keep an eye out for.
2008 Expectation: Start season in AA. Call-up to AAA later on. Could compete for Major League spot in 2009.
5) Wade Davis - It seems like you can’t talk about McGee without talking about Davis. The two are following a very similar career track, and both have put up stellar numbers. Davis doesn’t strike out as many hitters, but he also limits his walks more to offset that. He still wields a power fastball and could jump over McGee with a good 2008.
2008 Expectation: Start season in AAA, but not likely to pitch in the Trop this season. Could compete for Major League spot in 2009.
6) Jeff Niemann - And this is where things begin to get iffy. Nearly everyone disagrees on the order of this next group, simply because it’s really just a subjective placing of players based upon past performance and future projections. I like Niemann in this spot because he’s so close to Major League-ready. He’s HUGE (6′9″, 260), and rose through the system pretty quickly. His 2007 wasn’t quite as stellar as everyone was looking for, but he’s still got a ton of talent and the pitches to match.
Originally, I wanted the Rays to look at him in the bullpen, but with the acquisitions of Troy Percival and Matt Garza, I feel that bullpen depth is no longer an issue this year. If he puts up big numbers in Spring Training or in the first half of the year, he could most definitely be in the rotation before the All-Star Break.
2008 Projection: Could compete with Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine for a spot in the starting rotation. Should make big league debut before All-Star break.
7) Desmond Jennings - Who would’ve thought that we’d be talking about the LACK of outfield depth in the organization? That’s what an injury to Rocco Baldelli and the trades of Delmon Young and Jason Pridie will do for you. Of all of the remaining outfielders, Jennings is probably the most talented but he’s also the furthest away.
He’s FAST. Real fast. He led the Rays’ minor leaguers with 45 stolen bases, and he was going to go to Alabama as an option quarterback. He’s raw, though, getting caught stealing 15 times. His OPS (.866) is good, but it was done in the A league. He’s got a lot of time left to cook.
2008 Projection: Start the year in AA. Don’t expect a call-up unless he absolutely lights it up.
8 ) Eduardo Morlan - He is widely considered the steal of the Young-for-Garza swap, and with good reason. He’s got electric stuff and is the top true relief prospect in the organization. His development timetable probably takes him right up to about the time Troy Percival is ready to retire again, too, meaning he could get a few months as a setup man next season before taking over in 2010 as the team’s closer.
He has allowed a few too many home runs in the minors (18 in 274 innings, a high total for a reliever in the minors), so we’ll see if he can cut down on those.
2008 Projection: Start the year in AA. Could get called up to AAA with great work. Majors by end of 2009.
9) Jeremy Hellickson - Easy to overlook because of Price, McGee, and Davis, he certainly doesn’t get the attention that the others get. Perhaps its his size - just 5′11 - or perhaps its just that he hasn’t been around for very long. Still, he has put up great numbers in 2 full seasons and is certainly on the fast track to success. Could he get lost in the shuffle? Sure. But it’s not likely that EVERY arm will pan out. Give him more time, but he could jump into the Top 5 next year.
2008 Projection: Start the year in AA. Don’t expect a jump this year. Probably not even a sniff of Tampa Bay until 2010.
10) John Jaso - Maybe he’s rated a little bit high because of the position that he plays, but he really is a much better hitter than he often gets credit for. In 5 minor league seasons: .300/.378/.458 (.836 OPS) with 40 home runs… from the catcher position! Plus, he swings the bat lefty and shows a great walk:strikeout ratio.
Rumors about that he’s likely to move to first base in the future, but if the Rays draft Pedro Alvarez or Justin Smoak, I find it unlikely that they’ll touch Jaso in the next few years. Plus, having him around will be good to push Dioner Navarro a little bit. And, as Scout.com said, he can “flat out hit.”
Jaso could really turn into a sleeper and become a potent bat in a few years.
2008 Projection: Begin the year in AAA. Injuries could bring him to the big leagues, as he’s already on the 40-man roster.
11) Chris Mason - Maybe rated a little bit high on this list. He gets guys out, but doesn’t overpower anyone. Could be a sleeper, and maybe a candidate to slide to the bullpen in the future.
2008 Projection: Begin the year in AAA. Not likely to get a call-up unless there’s an emergency.
12) Ryan Royster - This dude hit 30 home runs and had nearly a 1.000 OPS in the SALLY League, so maybe I’ve got him a little low. He strikes out a ton, though, and there’s very little to indicate he’ll be able to continue his mashing once he gets to the next level. Keep an eye on him, but he’s quite a ways away right now.
2008 Projection: Won’t be any higher than AA in 2008. I wouldn’t think he’d even get considered for a Major League spot until late 2010 or 2011.
13) Mitch Talbot - Ahh, Mitch Talbot. Everyone wants you to be good, and your name comes up in nearly every conversation about our organizational pitching depth, but years like 2007 aren’t going to help your cause at all. This hits went way up, the walks were only average, and the strikeout stroke he found in 2006 was nowhere to be found.
Rumors abound that he could be looking at a bullpen spot in the future with all of the Rays’ starting pitching depth. If he continues to struggle like he did in 2007, that looks more and more likely.
2008 Projection: Will spend most, if not all, of the year in AAA. If he sees the big leagues, it will be as a reliever.
Tags: prospect list
January 15th, 2008 at 8:09 am
Good stuff Scott.
January 15th, 2008 at 10:37 am
Ya Scott-
Bravo- I really hope to see Jaso get a real shot to overtake Dioner as the man behind the dish should Navarro look like he did last season 1st half…
January 15th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
I think your choices are very reasonable. I also agree with the modesty in the introduction. For myself, I have seen a few of them play, but not regularly, and in any case I am no scout. Whatever judgments I make are based on what I have read, statistics and a large measure of subjectivity.
That said, I would probably rank Fernando Perez ahead of Mason and Royster. I know he is old for his league, but that is because of his college experience, not because he has a lot of pro seasons in. When I saw him, he really stung the ball, hitting hard line drives into the gaps, and his speed (raw still, I know) and defense add more dimensions to his value. He has more solid season performances than Royster and has shown more plate discipline.
I am also not convinced about Mason whose stuff may not get him far as he moves up. Perhaps my evaluation is colored by the fact that in the one game I saw this year in Montgomery he got hammered. But most analysts seem unimpressed with the raw talent, and his minor league record is not quite as stunning as Sonnanstine’s for example, who might be comparable in terms of succeeding with less than exciting pure talent.