A simple question to get the discussion going today: B.J. Upton or Rocco Baldelli - if you could only have one of them, with the guarantee that Rocco would be as healthy as you’d expect any other player to be, which one would you rather have?
Begin… now.
First, the Twins do the Rays a favor by dealing Johan Santana to the Mets instead of the Sawx or Yankees. Now it appears that the Orioles are on the verge of dealing Erik Bedard to the Mariners if he can’t be signed to a contract extension soon. (MLB Trade Rumors)
Okay, I realize that the Twins didn’t actually do that as a favor to the Rays. I was just kidding. Nor are the Mariners doing it for the same reason; everyone is just trying to get the best possible deals for their hurlers. It’s kind of strange, though, to see two top-tier pitchers like that dealt during the same offseason, within a few days of each other, when both are in the prime of their careers. These aren’t two journeyman southpaws we’re talking about there; these are two bonafide big league guns.
What does this have to do with the Rays? Well, I’m kind of interested in how this thing plays out because it can give us an idea what kind of market value a pitcher like Scott Kazmir might have. Sure, he’s in a bit of a different spot because he’s not in line of a huge payday just yet (soon, though), but Bedard and Santana are probably the closest value-wise that we’ll see dealt before the “Scott Kazmir to the (Insert Team Here)” rumors start popping up again in the not-too-distant future.
To be honest, I’m not overwhelmed by the Santana offer. I think the Twins had to accept relatively low value compared to some of the packages we were hearing about early on. Not one of the four prospects sent back is a “sure thing” - and I think in a trade for someone of Santana’s caliber, you need to bring back at least one of those types of players. If that’s a sign of what the Rays would get for him, forgive me if I’m not excited about it.
It’s hard to judge the Bedard deal until it is done, but the name Adam Jones keeps popping up. He’s been a masher in the minor leagues (similar numbers to Evan Longoria, actually) and he’s just 22 this coming season. With that short fence in right-center field at Camden Yards, he could do some damage. If he’s ALL the Orioles get, then its probably a win for the Mariners, but if Baltimore manages to grab a few more players, you could say that both teams did pretty well in the deal.
It leaves me underwhelmed for the future prospects of Scott Kazmir, though. Granted, I’m one of the guys who thinks the team should pony up the money and keep him when that time comes, but it’s a lot easier to spend someone else’s money. Who knows what the situation is going to be like in 2 years? All I know is that the Rays have gone from potentially having to face Santana and Bedard a combined 7 to 9 times in 2008 to having to face just Bedard 1 or 2 times. And that makes me a very happy boy.
Let’s talk starting rotation today.
We’re all pretty sure that we know that Kid K, Jamie Shields, and Matt Garza are going to occupy the first 3 spots of the rotation. But those last 2 spots are still pretty much up for grabs, with up to 5 pitchers vying for 2 spots.
Who would you use as the fourth and fifth starters heading into the season?
Just to reiterate the picks I’ve made before, I think it’s going to be Andy Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson, even though I wouldn’t be sad if Jackson were dumped into the bay, never to be seen again. I think Sonny showed enough last year to warrant another season in the rotation, while I think Jackson - as bad as he is - is a better starter than a reliever and the team doesn’t seem inclined to just cut bait with him. That bumps Hammel to the bullpen, while Howell and Niemann head to AAA to start the season.
Time for another edition of the Question & Answer & Answer mailbag. Bill Chastain was nice enough to provide us with another mailbag this week, and I didn’t have anything else to write today. (MLB.com)
First up, Rich B has a question about 2 of our starters:
I have a hunch that J.P. Howell and Andy Sonnanstine would do great in the ‘pen based on the control they’ve shown over the first three innings. Do you agree? Howell had a no-hitter in four innings, but was bad after that.
– Rich B., TampaI’m more convinced Howell belongs in the bullpen than I am Sonnanstine. Why? Howell would give the team a competitive lefty out of the ‘pen. I like the way he battles and he gives hitters a different look, and, as you noted, they seem to catch on against Howell the second time around the order.
On the other hand, Sonnanstine seems to have a way of keeping hitters off balance longer, whether it’s using different arm angles, different pitches, or doing as he did at the end of the season by relying more on his fastball. The bottom line is there are two open spots in the Rays’ rotation heading into Spring Training, so there are going to be some interesting candidates for the bullpen among the pitchers who don’t win one of the slots.
Well, I’ll be. An intelligent question. Although, you closed it with “Howell had a no-hitter in four innings, but was bad after that.” I think you’re referring to a specific game, but pretty much every pitcher in baseball history has had at least one game where he’s thrown 3 or 4 no-hit innings. Not sure what that proves.
When Chastain says he “likes the way Howell battles” does he mean that he likes the .825 OPS he has allowed over his career? Or maybe its that his lefty split is nearly identical to his righty one?
Don’t get me wrong, I’ve also been a fan of Howell because of what he’s done in the minor leagues, but I have no idea how you can extrapolate from his big league performance that he’d be a more effective reliever than a starter. I’ll be the first to admit that his numbers suck and he doesn’t belong in either spot, at least not yet. I suspect the team may give him a look in the bullpen at some point this year, but that’s only because of the huge amount of starting pitching we’ve got.
I think Sonnanstine, on the other hand, might be a ‘pen candidate sometime down the road, but it’s not going to be this year. He’s gotta be almost a lock for that 4th starter spot, with Edloss, Niemann, Howell, and Hammel duking it out for spot #5. He was good enough last year to warrant another look.
I don’t have to grapple with the grueling Florida sun, but anyone who states that they retain some kind of affinity for Tropicana Field has to be out of their mind. It looks like the team plays half its games within the confines of a crypt. How could one pine away for such a stifling atmosphere?
– Tom L., San FranciscoSounds to me like you have never been to Florida or Tropicana Field. Generally, I believe the national perception of Tropicana Field is negative based on the team’s poor performance, and over the years this negative publicity built up through a “piling on” mentality. Having said that, the new ownership definitely agrees with you about wanting to take the Rays outdoors. And given the desired location for their new stadium — which is on the water — I think this proposed stadium could be a real showplace.
I’m a little ticked off at Chastain for this one because I think he really had a chance to defend the Trop, the fans, and the team, but he chickened out and gave a much more generic response. Way to stick up for us, Bill.
That said, he was right in what he STARTED to say: the Trop gets a TON of unwarranted negative publicity. It looks a little bit goofy from the outside, but there is nothing wrong with the inside of the place. It is temperature-controlled, comfortable, and LOUD. I THINK the crypt reference might be to the fact that the games inside the Trop look darker on TV than do games at other fields? If that’s so, it’s only because of the crappy cameras that our local stations use, because the place is plenty bright on the inside, too.
Either way, the IDEA of the new stadium is here to stay. It’s just a matter of time to see if it sticks or not.
How long do you think it will be before speedster Fernando Perez is the leadoff hitter for the Rays? His on-base percentage in 2007 was .425.
– Howard, N.J.Perez is one of the Rays’ pleasant problems. The speedster is a real talent who will likely be the center fielder at Triple-A Durham this season. From what I have heard and read about him, he’s close to being Major League-ready. Just one problem: B.J. Upton is in center field for the Rays. As with most young players who have potential, the Rays would rather have Perez playing every day, which he should do at Durham, rather than coming off the bench and occasionally starting at the Major League level.
It’s going to be at least 2010 before Perez is playing every day for the Rays. Once the Cliff Floyd contract runs out, a spot opens up and then you can shift some players around (B.J. or Rocco to DH, the other in right field), which could open up a spot for Perez. A lot can happen in 2 years, though. Perez could prove to be terrible. Upton and Baldelli could be Gold Glovers. The Rays might find a trade partner who is willing to sell us the farm to get Perez. There are just so many things that could happen that it’s so hard to try an project out that far.
How long until top catching prospect John Jaso makes it to the team? He tore up Double-A Montgomery and showed that he is ready for Durham.
–Steven G., Ballwin, Mo.I don’t look for Jaso to be with the team on Opening Day, but stranger things have happened. Right now Dioner Navarro, Shawn Riggans and Mike DiFelice are blocking Jaso’s way. I think the Rays want to see Jaso compete at the Triple-A level before thinking about giving him the call.
This year will not be Jaso’s year, but I think he’ll get a serious look in 2009. If Dioner Navarro puts up just mediocre numbers, or if Cliff Floyd (there’s that name again) hurts himself like he’s wont to do, it could open up a spot for Jaso to split time between catcher and DH. He’s done nothing but hit in the minors, but he’s probably looking at a full year at Durham. Of course, a number of injuries to guys like Navarro and Shawn Riggans could also that.
Do you think Evan Longoria has a chance to be a star in the years to come? I have met and talked to him about baseball and he has the talent, but most importantly, he has the mental part of the game down. I see him doing very well next year, maybe pushing for Rookie of the Year.
–James B., Claremont, Fla.I have talked to Longoria as well, and he is an impressive kid. From everything the Rays have said about his abilities, the Rays believe their top prospect is the real deal and should be earmarked for stardom. But there are more players who have looked like stars at Triple-A then washed out at the Major League level than there are success stories. That’s because of the quality of baseball played at the Major League level, which is drastically different than Triple-A. So while Longoria has the look of a can’t-miss prospect, he still has a challenge in front of him.
“Do you think Evan Longoria has a chance to be a star”? Did you seriously ask that question? I’m not even going to dignify that with a response.
What are the Rays’ plans for Carl Crawford? They could potentially trade him now while he is still under contract with options, as his value would be extraordinary with his age and skill set. Because realistically, the Rays probably won’t be able to keep him around with the salary he will command in future years. Also, the older he gets and the closer he gets to free agency, the lower his value will be.
It would be a Miguel Cabrera-type situation, where the Rays could get three to five players/prospects for Crawford alone, and most likely they would be able to put themselves into a position where they could get some of the best up-and-coming prospects in the game along with some Major League talent as well. Crawford is an awesome player, but he also could potentially net three young pitchers and up to around five players. This is the way small-market teams build for the long haul. Look a little farther south at what the Marlins have been able to do, turning over their roster for prospects in the past. What are your thoughts on the subject?
– Josh L., Lebanon, Ill.For starters, I think you are right in your contention that the Rays could land three to five players for Crawford, who is an extraordinary talent. And from what the team management has said, they are always willing to consider any deal that will make the team better. But for now, they have a sparkling Rolls Royce with Crawford and I think they are content to take it out for a spin.
You REALLY shouldn’t look at the Marlins for an example of what to do to build a team. I’m much more interested in being competitive for a number of years rather than competing one year, then dropping off for 6 years, before competing again for one more year.
That said, sometimes a player and his worth to a team is more important than what you can get for him on the trade market. C.C. is the face of the franchise, the team’s most popular player, and one of the most exciting players in the game. He is essentially the embodiment of what the Rays are - young, fast, hungry, exciting. To trade him now - or soon - would probably be seen more as a regression than a progression, no matter what is brought back in return. Could you get 4 or 5 players for him? Sure you could. But would you want to? It’s not as if the Rays have a ton of holes left to fill, anyways.
This isn’t homepage worthy, so I figured I would pose the question via the diaries section. With the pending deal of Santana to the Mets and not the Yankees or Red Sox, does this make you breath a sigh or relief or were you not really worried either way?
If you haven’t done so already (and you live in Florida), make sure you get out and vote! I’m not going to get into my own personal candidate preferences or how I feel about Amendment 1, but I’m one of those who feels it’s important for everyone to participate. So get out there!
Now that that’s out of the way, who’s up for a little bit of a “guys just chatting” kind of lunch break today? Good, me too.
Who is the best baseball player you have ever seen play IN PERSON? Though most of us will often say that Willie Mays or Mickey Mantle or Joe DiMaggio or Ted Williams was the best player ever, very few of us have actually seen him play. I’m interested in guys you’ve actually seen.
For me, the best I’ve ever seen is Alex Rodriguez. Every time I’ve ever watched the guy, he has absolutely dominated opposing pitching. At the Trop last year, for instance, he hit two of the longest home runs I’ve ever seen. When my wife were up north vacationing over the summer, we took in a game at Yankee Stadium and he hit one so far over the monuments that I don’t think it has come down yet. Not only that, but the guy seems to play the game so effortlessly. He doesn’t even have to try!
Junior Griffey probably ranks second - back in his prime with Seattle, of course. And Miguel Tejada has made some of the greatest shortstop plays I’ve ever seen. They say he’s gotten lazy over the past few years, but when he first came up, he could pick it with the best of them.
We looked at the offense yesterday and how it compares to Rays teams of old. How about we compare this year’s pitching staff to past incarnations? I think you’ll be in for another nice surprise; a surprise that makes you look forward to this season even more.
For the “depth chart” in past years, I used Games Started (or Total Games) to organize the pitchers. For this year, I did it based upon my most recent prediction of the 25-man roster and depth chart.
| Pos | 2008 | 1998 | 2000 | 2002 | 2004 | 2006 |
| SP | Scott Kazmir | Rolando Arrojo | Bryan Rekar | Tanyon Sturtze | Mark Hendrickson | Casey Fossum |
| SP | James Shields | Tony Saunders | Albie Lopez | Joe Kennedy | Victor Zambrano | Scott Kazmir |
| SP | Matt Garza | Wilson Alvarez | Steve Trachsel | Paul Wilson | Dewon Brazelton | James Shields |
| SP | Andy Sonnanstine | Julio Santana | Ryan Rupe | Ryan Rupe | Rob Bell | Tim Corcoran |
| SP | Edwin Jackson | Dennis Springer | Dave Eiland | Jorge Sosa | John Halama | Jae Seo |
| CL | Troy Percival | Roberto Hernandez | Robero Hernandez | Esteban Yan | Danys Baez | Tyler Walker |
| RP | Al Reyes | Jim Mecir | Doug Creek | Steve Kent | Trever Miller | Shawn Camp |
| RP | Dan Wheeler | Esteban Yan | Rick White | Jesus Colome | Lance Carter | Ruddy Lugo |
| RP | Juan Salas | Albie Lopez | Jim Mecir | Victor Zambrano | Travis Harper | Brian Meadows |
| RP | Gary Glover | Scott Aldred | Mark Guthrie | Travis Harper | Jorge Sosa | Jon Switzer |
The first that that really jumped out at me was - especially when I looked at the stats - that 1998 pitching staff wasn’t nearly as bad as the names look. It was actually halfway decent. Not great by any stretch of the imagination, but not the nuclear holocaust waiting to happen that you could find in later years.
There were so many “legendary” Rays pitchers that just didn’t make it onto this list because of the cut-off that I used. Seth McClung and Doc Gooden, we hardly knew ye.
In looking at this year’s staff compared to past years, there’s a few things I think you can take out of it:
Hope you all enjoyed this trip down memory lane over the past few days. More than that, I hope it helps get you excited for what I really believe will be our most exciting season yet.
In his very impressive responses to questions at mlbtraderumors.com, Brian Bannister comments on the element of randomness in baseball. While I am very optimistic about the 2008 season and think the Rays have made excellent moves to prepare for it, I am nervous because of the always present element of randomness. The Rays really have to show significant progress in their record this year or casual fans will begin the attack on management in earnest. Still, we have to realize that randomness can undermine the best of plans.
Looking at the off-season, it was clear the Rays had to improve their ability to prevent runs. While there were weaknesses in their run production too, it was at least acceptable, but the prevention of runs was awful. Essentially that meant addressing two weaknesses, pitching and defense. That accounts for adding Garza to the rotation, signing Percival and acquiring Bartlett. The rotation should be more effective, the bullpen deeper and more reliable and the infield defense significantly better. While Delmon’s arm will be missed in right field, upgrading shortstop more than compensates. And other than his arm, Young was not an outstanding defender. If Baldelli can play there, he might be better than Young, and his arm is not bad either.
The question is did the Rays sacrifice too much offense in giving up Harris and Young. To me what marks their attention to detail and seriousness is reflected in their less obvious upgrades or cut and paste jobs. Harris is replaced by Aybar. Delmon is replaced by a platoon that now includes a pretty good left-handed hitter, another part of the offense that could use upgrading from last year. And one element of the offense that was weak last year, OBP, has probably been improved with the additions of Floyd, Bartlett and Longoria when he arrives. We even added some speed and base-stealing with Bartlett, a kind of extra bonus. It seems to me that the Rays not only addressed needs in each case, but came away with the best or at least better options in every case: Floyd, not Erstad; Aybar, not Feliz. I even think signing Percival was at least as good a move if not better than pursuing Dotel or Gagne.
What impresses me is the clear targeting of needs, filling them and then compensating for losses in other areas in a reasonable manner. Naturally, every move is susceptible to backfiring. Injury and age concerns are real. So too are concerns about relying on an unproven pitcher while sacrificing a high-ceiling hitter. Just as we may legitimately hope that Upton and Pena will remain threats and that Navarro and Iwamura will improve, it is also possible some will regress or fail to develop. There is no guarantee that Wheeler will return to form, and the back end of the bullpen is filled with players whose record of failure is far more extensive than their record of success. Glover, Dohmann and Balfour have little to recommend them beyond some promising tools (Balfour) or scattered performances last year. Even Salas remains more a project than a reliable reliever.
So kudos to the Rays for such clear-headed and targeted actions. I think given the range of possible off-season moves, the Rays have acted with vigor and intelligence to build a contender. I expect it will show results. We know that nothing is certain, but we can respect preparation that makes success more probable.
Jim Hickey said over the weekend that Gary Glover was one of the pitchers he trusted in a big spot. (TBO.com)
We can take that for what it is - just a comment - right now, but it does seem to indicate that G-Love and the Special Sauce could find a spot on the opening day roster come March. I’m trying to figure out if this love for Glover is justified or not, though.
G-Love allowed nearly 1 1/2 runners per inning, had an E.R.A. near 5, and served up 12 home runs in 77 2/3 innings. (If he were a starting pitcher, he would’ve allowed somewhere near 30 over the course of the full season.) He struck out 20 fewer batters than innings pitched and was the loser in 5 of his 67 games. He DID only blow 2 saves, though. I guess my question to you is: is this love justified for a pitcher who allows well over an .800 OPS to opposing hitters? Am I looking too closely at stats? Was he better than I remember in 2007? I don’t remember him being that great, but someone must have seen something that I’m missing.
Please, enlighten me.
