It’s fitting that the home schedule ended the way it did last night; it was like the Rays put the entire season into a jar and let it spill out last night. Everything that has defined this Rays team during the season came out last night.
It started with an awesome performance by Scott Kazmir, who left it all on the table during 6 short innings of work. He gave up only 3 hits, didn’t walk a batter, and struck out 10 Yankees to take the league-lead in the category. It’s unlikely that he will lose that distinction, by the way. Then, like the script from the season has been written, Kazmir left the game tied and wouldn’t get a chance to win the brilliant outing. The bullpen was unable to hold onto the tie and the offense was unable to make up the gap. And that, my friends, has been the story of the Rays’ season in a nut-shell. A great starting pitching effort was supported by a little offense from Carlos Pena and some weak bullpen work and just like that you’ve got another loss.
As the season winds down, I need more time to reflect before I write an official “this is how I feel about the season” article, but on the surface, it’s hard not to feel a little disappointed in how things turned out. The team was WORSE at home this year than it was last year and the bullpen - though improved from earlier in the season - still didn’t end up very good. I’m almost leaning towards saying that we’re at a “push” compared to last year; neither better nor worse.
Of course it will increase in 2008. If it doesn’t, we’ll have a team of players from Durham making up the roster; Scott Kazmir, Carl Crawford, Brendan Harris, Rocco Baldelli, Carlos Pena, and others will all be making more money than they made this year. Just to maintain status-quo is going to cost the team a lot of money.
I can already see the message board posts that guys like Lancaster are going to get on their blogs in a few months. They’ll go something like: STU STRNBRG SED THAT HE WUZ GOING INCREASE PAYROL BUT THIS TAEM IS THE SAME SA TI WAS BE4 LAST SEASN STRTED!1!! GOT TO FIRE FREEDMAN AND STERNBERGS NOW!!1!!
I for one would much rather see the team spend the money to lock up the really good players we’ve already got to long-term deals - Kazmir, Shields, and Pena for starters - and ignore the high-cost, low-ceiling options like David Eckstein. I know that the “Little Shortstop that Couldn’t” is a popular option amongst kids and fans, but please people - he’s not very good. I’d rather see another season of Harris and Wilson. Oh crap, look what you’ve done - you’ve gone and made me say something I’ll probably regret.
1B Carlos Pena was voted team MVP for the 2007 season by members of the Tampa Bay Chapter of the Baseball Writers Association of America. Pena has set team records with 43 home runs and 118 RBIs.
Other award winners announced Thursday are RF Delmon Young as the team’s outstanding rookie, and Pena as winner of the Paul C. Smith Champion Award, given to the player who best exemplifies the spirit of true professionalism on and off the field.
Before you jump all over me on this one, compare Jason Bay’s years before 2007 to what Delmon Young did this year. Bay is certainly a more valuable offensive player, and Delmon’s value is likely VERY high right now.
September 28th, 2007 at 8:44 am
I looooove Jason Bay, but- I think Delmon’s ceiling is slightly higher than JB’s and I wouldn’t want to give up on that yet. With that being said, I wouldn’t rip the Trop down if this deal was done, but i just don’t see it…
September 28th, 2007 at 9:04 am
I wouldn’t do the deal for Bay because Bay will never be the defender that Young is. I think Young might be the better option because of his upside and his defense. I am definitely not against the opinion of trading Young. But I would want to get a pitcher in here for him. We would be able to pull off a Dontrelle Willis or possibly a Jake Peavy trade with the right package with Young as the center piece.
In terms of Payroll, does anyone know what the increases would be approximateluy for some of our players? I know they want to lockup Kazmir, probably a 5/$50 million deal, and I’m sure Shields is on the radar for one. Shields would probably have to settle for 5/$35 million because he doesn’t have the service time of Kazmir. Pena deserves one, but they could possibly just wait another year on locking him up. He could have just had a flash in the pan type of season, and the Rays might be better off waiting another year and just give him about $5-6 million for next year in arbitration. It looks like we’ll be having the first overall pick again next year, and the early favorite was a teammate of David Price, Pedro Alvarez. Alvarez is a third baseman, just like Longoria, but he could be moved to first base if we draft him. Then you could just live with Pena until Alvarez would be ready. You have to look down the road in this situation. Pena’s deal would be very risky this year because of the "come out of nowhere" type of season he had. Those deals can come back to bite you in the rear if you’re not careful. I’m not saying we shouldn’t lock him up long term, but Boras is his agent and he will want a 4/$50 million at the minimum. If he returns to old form, which I hope he doesn’t, this deal would kill us worse than the Greg Vaughn deal ever did. I say lock up Kazmir and Shields this offseason, and get pena a fair one-year deal for 2008. I’m not sure where that puts us in terms of increasing payroll by 20% as Stu mentioned, but I think it would be close. So, I definitely think the people who were hoping for Renteria in a trade need to forget about it. Crawford’s salary also goes up this year if I remember right. So, we’re going to have the same players more than likely. But we could trade for young established players in the majors, like Khalil Greene. I know, I’ve been pumping that one to death, but give me some credit for trying.
September 28th, 2007 at 10:06 am
Delmon is 21; Bay is 28 and having a bad year.
Delmon has a chance to be something special; Bay has been special but is near the other side of his prime.
Delmon has not had a good year for a star right fielder, but he has had a fine year for a 21 year old. He works hard and should improve over the next few years.
I cannot imagine SD trading Peavy under almost any circumstances. He may be the best pitcher in the majors right now, certainly in the argument. He will win the Cy Young this year, possibly unanimously, and is just 26 years old. We could not get him for Young and Crawford. As for Willis, I would not trade Navarro for him let alone Young. He has declined significantly the last 3 years and may be done as a major league pitcher.
Actually, the bullpen was not terrible last night. In fact, it is just possible that it was done in again by a weak infield defense. The first hit against Switzer was a ground ball that Wilson just missed. The Cano double was hard hit to left, but the Molina single off Glover was another 2 hop ground ball up the middle through a drawn in infield with Wilson again just missing it. Glover then got an easy DP and Dohmann pitched fine in his inning.
The feeling in the Trop as Kazmir did his thing was electric.
September 28th, 2007 at 10:19 am
1) forget any SS FA…Stu is cheap. If we get one it will be via trades and cannot come with a big price tag.
2) Bay?…knee surgery, past youth, etc. Nope. Burnt out on all the losing? Then the Trop is not for him either as the Rays lose even more than the Pirates!!!! The worst losers in ALL OF BASEBALL.
3) Outside starter and reliever? Maybe, but STU IS CHEAP and we could only get Seth back on this budget. Jeez. I am depressed even BEFORE the end of the season.
4) Rays management should buy playoff tickets for every Rays player and coach so they can see what the goal REALLY is. Not to win 70 games or make it to .500.
5) If Stu is only seeking to run a profitable business and is not committed to winning a championship, then he should pack up his freaking carpetbag and go home, root for the Yankees and never return to Florida.
September 28th, 2007 at 12:13 pm
1. I think we need to spend money first on keeping players we have, but I think we need to spend money on a SS that can field, and a player that can extend pitch counts. We strike out and swing at first pitches way too much. That’s what Eckstein does, and that is why he’d be a fit for us.
2. No way in a million years I trade Delmon Young for Bay, or for just about anything for that matter. The guy has over 90 RBIs as a 21 year old and as he develops, the doubles he hits now will turn into homers, and there are very few people who hit the ball as hard as Young does. You cannot teach that, the kid’s got some kind of special talent. With Crawford, Upton, and Young, we have 3 5-tool players, all of which will be affordable for at least a couple more seasons.
September 28th, 2007 at 12:21 pm
I now live 5-10 minutes from the Astro’s Minute Maid park. I think I will have to start getting "wiggy with it" more next year. The Rays are causing me too much heartache.
September 28th, 2007 at 12:55 pm
The only thing that concerns me about Delmon is his family ties. When Dmitri was coming up with the Reds, he was supposed to be the next guy to hit .400. Now he looks like he might weigh that much. Dmitri lost his competitive edge for a while, and we all just have to hope that the apple does fall far from the tree in this situation. Delmon has already had his problems in the minors, and I know he’s been much better in the bigs, but there’s just something about him that I don’t like. I can just sense something in him. He’s had a very good second half, but he could be someone that you just sell high on and reap the benefits.
We don’t need Eckstein. If we were going to bring in a shortstop, we need to bring in a guy who will be an upgrade. Eckstein doesn’t give us anything that Harris doesn’t. This team would be better off trying to trade for a great shortstop. But we probably won’t. The payroll is going up by 20%, and that really does only cover what the guys we currently have with their raises in salary. Now, when Stu says we’ll be raising the payroll by 20% by bringing in outside help, I will start to get excited.
September 28th, 2007 at 1:25 pm
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: JUST SAY NO to Eckstein. He’s without question baseball’s most overrated player.
September 28th, 2007 at 1:26 pm
Bobr -
I agree on everything you said. One ammendment, D-Train isn’t done, he’s just done as an elite pitcher. He should settle in as a workhorse #3 starter, think Livan Hernandez a few years ago.
September 28th, 2007 at 1:30 pm
The Rays are spending money on talent, not just from the draft but in their Latin American academies, for example. If Sternberg is using a business strategy to build a solid sub-structure to support a contending team for a while rather than try to buy his way to contention and then fall apart, the fans should be happy about it. There is no evidence that the Rays will not spend when it is intelligent to do so (extensions to Baldelli and Crawford, above cap for Price, bidding on Iwamura), only that they will not sink funds into foolish gambles.
The lie that Sternberg is cheap probably does not merit a response. The problem is that letting it pass allows it to enter the realm of "commonly well known", that is of myths that somehow are believed. There is not a shred of evidence that Sternberg is cheap or unwilling to invest money to build a winner. The only evidence we have is that he is not stupid and will not buy mediocre talent that will not help the team win.
Focusing on salaries, aside from ignoring other areas of expenditure intended to prepare a winning team, distracts from the real concern which is to acquire talent. The Rays could have spent a lot more and had Sexson instead of Pena, Pierre instead of Upton, Drew instead of Young, Baez instead of Reyes. There is no correlation between salary and productivity. Instead of worrying about the Rays salary structure, we need to consider its talent structure.
Some fans are screaming for the Rays to make a big splash in the free agent market this off-season to build the bullpen. DUMB! At the end of this post I list the relievers available. As Rivera, Nathan, Isringhausen and Hoffman will not be, the only one who we can expect to be better than who we already have is F. Cordero. Whether it is wise to invest what it will take to sign him is debatable, but otherwise, not one other pitcher is worth much of a gamble. Should the Rays spend on someone like Benitez just to do it and wind up with someone likely worse than whom we have?
Bullpens are not built by spending; they are built by amassing as many arms as possible and then sorting through them until you figure out who can do the job. Just about every successful or improved bullpen (Angels, D-Backs, Padres, Royals, Braves) is made up of spare parts while the big spenders (Yankees, Mets, Orioles) have generally been disasters.
Here are the upcoming free agent relievers:
Jeremy Affeldt COL
Armando Benitez FLA
Hector Carrasco * LAA
Francisco Cordero MIL
Rheal Cormier CIN
Elmer Dessens COL
Scott Eyre * CHC
Trevor Hoffman * SD
Jason Isringhausen* STL
Todd Jones DET
Jorge Julio COL
Joe Kennedy TOR
Byung-Hyun Kim FLA
Scott Linebrink MIL
Ron Mahay ATL
Trever Miller HOU
Mike Myers * CWS
Joe Nathan * MIN
Chris Reitsma SEA
Mariano Rivera NYY
Rudy Seanez SD
Mike Timlin BOS
Mike Venafro STL
Luis Vizcaino NYY
Bob Wickman ARI
Scott Williamson BAL
Jay Witasick TB
Kerry Wood CHC
September 28th, 2007 at 2:00 pm
Guys don’t count on any big free agents coming here. Stu said 20%. I think he said 15 to 20 for 2007 and it didn’t come through. If they resing Pena that will ear up a bifg part of the 20. I just don’t see them committing any monies to big free agents. I think they think there way of doing things is working because, look how they got Kaz and then Pena. I just see them keeping everything in house (Rays and the Minors) and making a few swaps. But you know the ticket prices will go up 10 to 15% and free parking and bringing it food is gone. This will be there 3rd seasib and they know what the team needs. I hope I am wrong but I don’t see the Rays being any better in the wins and loses next year. When the second and third string Yankees beat us, didn’t do anything for me. Of course the Yankee 2nd and third string payroll is probable 10 times the Rays. I just don’t think the owners are baseball people and they’re more concerned with improving the bottom line and if improving the bottom line accidentally improves the team it would be a bonus. I know I’m going to waid till the end of spring training to make a decision on my season tickets.
September 28th, 2007 at 4:01 pm
Eckstein is not a power hitter, nor is he a speedster. He doesn’t have great range on defense. Here is what he does.
1. He almost never strikes out. He strikes out about once for every 14 plate appearances. We have too many people who strike out a lot. That’s why we lead MLB at that.
2. He sees a lot of pitches. We cannot have a lineup full of guys who swing early in counts.
3. He typically doesn’t make errors. This year he has a few. But he averaged less than 10 a season for his previous 5. Our SS fielding percentage over the last 4 seasons is .963. Eckstein’s career percentage is .979.
4. He is one of the best baserunners in baseball. Not basestealers, but baserunners, and I think he can teach the Rays a few things about running bases. In 2006, he was not thrown out once taking an extra base on a hit.
5. He was raised in the Angels system that Maddon is trying to teach to our team, and can be a leader.
As far as him being overrated. He’s been a key member of 2 world championship teams. He was a great player on the Angels championship team and I believe he was voted team MVP that season, and he was the World Series MVP last year. Sure he doesn’t hit for power, but he does everything else well.
September 28th, 2007 at 4:45 pm
Eckstein’s WARP1 is 2.1. His VORP is 19.2.
Brendan Harris’ are 2.6 and 26.9.
Eckstein was in the starting lineup for 2 World Series teams… so what? Joe Girardi was, too. Does that make him a better catcher than Benito Santiago?
Come on, people… logic and reason dictate that David Eckstein is not a good fit for this team. We have PRECIOUS FEW dollars to spend. To waste them on a player who is un-needed and un-good is NOT worth it.
September 28th, 2007 at 4:55 pm
Sternberg managed to have a sense of humor when asked if he would like to lock up Scott Kazmir and James Shields to long-term deals.
"Like Bob Barker would say, ‘If the price is right,’ " he said, allowing himself a chuckle. "If the price is right."
ARE YOU FING KIDDING ME??? IF THE PRICE IS RIGHT??? KAZMIR WILL WIN A CY YOUNG, AND SHIELDS IS A VALID #2, MAKE THE PRICE RIGHT, AND GET IT DONE!!!!
My barometer for this particular version of the DRO hinges on keeping the talent we have… The promise has been to chaeply develop "OUR GUYS" then pay them when the time is right. Now is that time for at least Kazmir, possibly Pena for the long term…
With the coup we got Kazmir by, and the fact he has been electric ever since makes it worth as much money as it will take to get this done…
September 29th, 2007 at 3:09 am
I have to agree with bobr with what he is saying about the way that Stu is spending money. What the DRays need to do is build the foundation so that we can be successful year after year, more in the mold of the Twins and A’s, who have more good years than bad years and always seem to have some talent in the system. Actually, I think we have been doing much better than both of those teams with our young talent, as I don’t think any team in baseball has the farm system the DRays do (Dodgers might be closest, but I like our mix of hitter and pitchers).
I am a bit surprised though that no one has really talked though about one idea to shore up the bullpen. Bring up the younger starters and put them in the bullpen. Remember a guy named Earl Weaver? What was his idea with young, hot-shot pitchers, put them in the bullpen, let them get use to being in the majors and letting them build their confidence and learn the skill of being a pitcher in the majors. After a year in the bullpen, they should be ready to be in the rotation. Along those lines, heard of Pedro Martinez. I remember his first full year in the majors and what was he, a reliever and a very valueable one for the 93 Dodgers.
It is just an idea to try to help the bullpen out, since spending a lot of money to better the bullpen will just drive us all mad. Just look at the Orioles this year, they spent something like $43 million to shore up their bullpen (Baez, Walker, Bradford, Williamson) and you can see that is money will spent. Some smart free agent pick-ups (like Pena and Harris) for the bullpen would be nice, but I would like to see some of the kids get their feet wet in the bullpen.