Rays of Light

Roster Moves Made Today

Was I surprised that the Rays sent Jorge Cantu to Durham, no I wasn’t. The whispers have been out there since the beginning of spring training that Cantu was not a lock to make this team and would have to EARN his spot on this team. Many people believe that Cantu should have made this team because of what he did two years ago. We have to remember that professional sports are about what have you done for me lately and not what you did in one season, two years ago. Cantu can be upset, but I doubt the Rays will trade him or release him, so Jorge go to Durham and show the team they made a mistake in sending you down.

The AP is reporting that the starting center fielder for the Rays on opening day will be Elijah Dukes and not Rocco Baldelli. Baldelli is still nursing his hamstring injury and will be the teams DH until he is able to play the field. Dukes was informed on Friday about the news and Joe Maddon asked him to be quiet about the situation. With Dukes making the roster, the three players that caused an uproar in a USA Today article last year are all on the roster for opening day. With Cantu out of the picture, B.J. Upton will become the starting second baseman. One question I have about Upton, is how many errors will he have this season?

There was some surprising moves that the Rays made. I was surprised that Chad Orvella was sent to Durham and that Gary Glover is going to make this team. Orvella was having a good spring, but Rays management elected to send him to Durham. Of course, I was not surprised that Seth McClung was sent to the minors and I was happy to see that move. Hopefully, the Rays have made the right moves and this team can improve from last season.

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Cantu cut

As has been discussed at length over the past few days, Cantu’s option to Triple A came to fruition today. (Source)

Cantu reacted in the most rational way possible, saying he had nothing left to prove and going as far as to indicate that he might not even report to AAA. On top of that, he demanded a trade. Grow up, you primadonna. Maybe if you had played with that kind of intensity over the Spring Training haul, you’d be on the roster.

Meanwhile, Greg Norton’s knee is bothering him, and he might be on the way to the DL. Carlos Pena might have a job after all, if Norton has to go on the list. The problem with Pena, however, is that his addition would mean that the Rays would have to make room on the 40-man. You know what? Cut Cantu. Get that jerk out of here. At least Pena acts like a man instead of a child.

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Seo bombed early, but rebounds in close loss

Box Score

After falling into a 5-0 hole early, the Rays rallied by came up short - dropping a 5-4 decision to the Reds at Sarasota. (Source)

What Went Right
Jae Seo bounced back from a horrific first inning to throw 3 solid innings after that. Al Reyes, Shawn Camp, and Gary Glover each followed with a combined 4 innings of shutout ball. B.J. went 3-4 with a run and an RBI and stole 2 bases while starting in center. He also made a fabulous sliding catch. Iwamura got a couple of hits. Navarro saw some action.

What Went Wrong
The first inning. Seo was hammered, as the Reds clocked him for a 5 spot in the first. The Rays got the first two on in the 1st inning, then Wiggy, Norton, and Delmon left them on base.

Scott’s Take
We’re getting close! Just one more exhibition game before the regular season starts - and I can’t wait! B.J. Upton has played himself into an everyday role - and good for him! With all of the flack he’s taken (including from me), he’s managed to really heat it up this spring and DESERVES to start the season at second base. Navarro finally saw major league action, and went 0-3 with 2 strikeouts. The one time he did make contact, he hit a hard line drive at the shortstop though. After the game, Maddon said that he came out of it with no problems. No Rocco today. I haven’t seen a story on if he played today or not, but you have to wonder if he’ll be ready to go on Monday or not. I say DH him, play Upton and second and let Elijah get a taste of Yankee Stadium on Opening Day!

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Rays Season Preview - Starting Pitchers

Here’s day 2 of my Rays season preview. We’re going to focus on the starting pitchers today. Enjoy!

NOTE: All projections below are ZiPS projections from www.baseballthinkfactory.org.

Baby steps, or a bunch of quicksand?
Looking at the Rays pitching rotation, its really hard to get a handle on what we’re going to see this year. Of course, we’ve got Scotty K at the top of the rotation - but, he’s still young and could very well hit a wall one of these seasons. Beyond him, there’s a whole lot of “I hope” and “Let’s pray.”

The Ace
He’s already proven himself as one of the top lefties in the American League, and he’s only been able to legally drink for 2 years. Scott Kazmir is the face of this rotation, and if all goes well, should be for the next decade. Victor Zambrano will go down in Rays history, because this is the absolute best thing he could have ever done for this organization. We can only hope, of course, that he hasn’t peaked yet and that the league doesn’t eventually catch up to him. He’s still got a plus fastball and plus slider, and his changeup is definitely coming around. Really, all he needs to work on is his endurance and his command - keeping his pitch count down will be important. At the end of the day, he’ll likely be an All-Star again and will win at least 15 games for the club - as long as he stays healthy.

PROJECTED: 12-8, 3.57 ERA, 179 IP, 165 H, 75 BB, 176 K

The #2
Let’s be honest - James Shields might not be a number 2 starter on any other team in baseball, but that doesn’t mean that he’s garbage. He started out hot last year, but started to lose some juice as the year went on. Still, he dominated in AAA, and has a great change-up that can keep major league hitters off-balance. He needs to limit the damage and avoid the longball (18 in 124 IP last year). Absolute best-case for him, you could see him winning 12 to 14 games. Worst-case, he’ll be in Durham by July with a 3-10 record.

PROJECTED: 9-10, 4.70 ERA, 184 IP, 211 H, 46 BB, 136 K

The Journeyman
There’s a reason both the Mets and the Dodgers gave up on Jae Seo, and that’s because he is terribly inconsistent. You can just look at his outing on Friday as an example. He was hammered - and I mean HAMMERED - in the first inning but then slammed the door on the Reds for the next 3 innings. Which Jae Seo shows up on any given day is going to be a mystery - a mystery that will greatly determine how he does for the club this year. He’s extremely good against left-handed hitting, and he’s got a plus split-finger pitch. If he can find a way to get right-handed batters out with more efficiency, and get through some quality starts, he will be bargain. Otherwise, it’ll be just like his 3-12 season last year.

PROJECTED: 5-8, 5.43 ERA, 141 IP, 167 H, 50 BB, 80 K

The Potential Stopper
Casey Fossum has long been known as a guy with great potential, but aside from a 2002 run with the Red Sox has never looked like a guy who would make good on that potential. This spring, he looked like the guy that everyone thought he could be. Murder on lefties, when he’s on he gets a ton of ground balls and can get a decent number of K’s. Over the winter, he really seemed to figure it out. By the end of this season, I think the Rays will have a decision to make - use him as a veteran anchor in the rotation, or send him to a contender for some value. I think he’s going to be that good this year.

PROJECTED: 8-10, 5.31 ERA, 156 IP, 169 H, 65 BB, 127 K

The Stuff
Being the #5 starter for the Rays is an awful lot like being the backup goalie for the Philadelphia Flyers. Its not an enviable position, but at least you’re in the bigs! As is the case with every other pitcher on this staff, Jackson’s future will be entirely dependent upon his consistency. If he can continue to command the strike zone and mitigate the walks, he has the potential to be a solid #2 or #3 starter. If he forgets where home plate is and can’t get anyone out, then he’s on his way to the waiver wire. You love, love, LOVE his stuff - especially from a 23-year old. If this spring is any indication, we could be looking at a special season from Action Jackson.

PROJECTED: 5-13, 6.32 ERA, 131 IP, 159 H, 64 BB, 80 K (OUCH! I have to think that they are undercutting him a bit here, eh?)

The Others
J.P. Howell had a great spring, and should get the first call if there’s an emergency. Jeff Niemann, Jason Hammel, and Mitch Talbot all have a chance of seeing some time in the bigs this year depending on how the rotation shakes out. Of course, I hope that we don’t have to see either of them, because the current staff holds the fort. Its unlikely that that will be the case, though. Someone will get hurt, or someone will be inconsistent, or - perhaps - someone will be traded. There’s a number of live young arms in the minors that could contribute down the line; keep an eye on them.

Tomorrow, I’ll spotlight the infielders.

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Rocco Update

Since Rocco hasn’t appeared in the game versus the Reds today, I can only assume he is taking part in the minor league game today, as reported by the Bradenton Herald. (Source)

According to the article, Maddon is not expecting Baldelli to be 100% by opening day, and the team is likely going to limit his time in centerfield early on. Could this mean Rocco will DH, with Upton in center and Cantu at second when the season starts? How about Elijah Dukes starting in center on Opening Day? There’s lots of possibilities here! Whatever gets Rocco into the lineup works for me.

I’ll be back with an update on Rocco’s game today (if I find one) later.

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McClung gets chance to stink up Durham

According to Marc Lancaster (gosh, I’ve been going to him a lot lately!), the Rays sent Seth McClung down to Durham today. Chad Orvella was also sent down, and Carlos Pena was cut. (Source)

If you’ve talked to me over the past few days, you know that I feel McClung didn’t deserve to be anywhere near this club after the stinkbomb he dropped on the Spring Training complex. Orvella is a little bit more of a surprise to me, since he’s actually pitched well. I suspect he’ll get some work at Durham, and be back before too long. He could be very effective out of the bullpen if he puts it all together.

Carlos, we hardly knew ye. It’s a number game, and there just wasn’t a spot for you.

UPDATE: Get this. McClung didn’t even know he had an option left. He claims that he was trying out new things under the impression that he couldn’t be sent down. (Source)

“I was very surprised. I’m very disappointed that I was not made aware of that I had another option, and that’s not the team’s responsibility to make me aware of that, it’s my agent’s responsibility to make me aware of that, and I am disappointed,” he said.

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Former Managers keeping tabs

Real quick one to pass along to all of you, there’s a short article from the Tampa Tribune about Lou Piniella and Larry Rothschild both keeping an eye on the Rays from a safe distance up in Chicago. Check it out if you get a chance. (Source)

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Rays Season Preview - Outfield

Over the next four days leading up to the regular season, I’m going to be breaking down the four major areas of the D-Rays: Infield, Outfield, Starters, and Relievers. Since the outfield and starting pitchers are the most clear, I’ll be tackling those over the next few days. I’ll pop in with the bullpen and infield over the weekend. Hopefully, some of my compadres will jump in and provide their two cents as well.

NOTE: All projections below are ZiPS projections from www.baseballthinkfactory.org.

Best outfield in baseball?
There’s a lot of talk out there - A LOT - that the Rays have the most talented outfield in baseball and, perhaps, the best all-around as well. There’s three guys firmly entrenched out there that could play centerfield on a lot of teams in the big leagues, and each one of them can hit the ball. Are they truly an elite group, though? Surely, they don’t yet have the track record of Matsui/Damon/Abreu. No one is going to confuse them with the Albert Belle, Kenny Lofton, and Manny Ramirez outfield that the Indians employed a decade ago. Still, there is an awful lot of talent in the outfield when - in this day and age - overall outfield talent seems to be down.

The Kingpin
Carl Crawford is the man in this outfield, no question about it. His combination of tools - and his developing power - put him on the cusp of being an elite player in this game. In 20 years, its very likely that people will speak about C.C. the way that we speak of players like Rickey Henderson or Tim Raines. He produces from anywhere in the lineup, steals nearly 60 bases every season (and is rarely caught), and plays absolutely stellar defense. If there is one flaw in his game, its that he doesn’t take enough walks. You can live with it, though, because he also doesn’t strike out a lot. If there is one player on this team you don’t need to worry about, its Carl.

PROJECTED: 157 G, .306/.344/.464, 15 HR, 71 RBI, 49 SB, 100 R

Joltin’ Rocco
So maybe the Joe DiMaggio references aren’t fair, but Rocco is still a fine centerfielder. Of course, the biggest question is whether or not he can stay healthy and play in 150 games or more this season. The Rays, of course, will be a much better team if he can pull off the feat. When he’s healthy, he’s a dangerous hitter that gives opposing pitchers fits. Like Crawford, he doesn’t walk a lot, but he’s got a great mix of power and speed that is difficult to find anywhere in the game. I think we sometimes forget that he is still 25 years old and has not yet entered the prime of his career. Having Elijah Dukes around should only help to push Rocco even more. If the Rays falter, and Rocco stays healthy, you can bet that his name will pop up in trade talks as the season goes on.

PROJECTED: 117 G, .299/.342/.476, 15 HR, 61 RBI, 10 SB, 71 R

The Rookie
We’ve all heard the stories about how Delmon Young is the next big thing. He’s been compared to Andre Dawson and Vlad Guerrero and nearly every other great outfielder that we’ve seen over the past 20 years. Its probably not fair to try to put any labels on a kid who has only played a smattering of games at the big league level, but that’s the current sports climate that we live in. He’ll never avoid the comparisons, just like he’ll never be able to completely escape his past (and “Batgate”). The best he can hope for is to push all of those things to the back and let his playing do the talking. Instead of being compared to the great outfielders of our era, Delmon Young needs to go out there and play baseball his way so that one day he might be one of those outfielders who people are compared to. What can we expect from him? It’s really hard to tell. What if opposing teams find a hole in his swing? What if his inability to be selective at the plate leads to a run of bad luck where he can’t buy a hit? There are so many unknowns with Delmon. Still, I feel he is a front-runner for the Rookie of the Year, and is a fine player to begin to build a winning culture around.

PROJECTED: 130 G, .288/.321/.451, 15 HR, 66 RBI, 18 SB, 67 R

The Wildcard
Watching the evolution of the Elijah Dukes story over the course of the season is going to be extremely interesting. Let’s assume that the entire core outfield stays healthy. Where does he get his at bats from? Sure, you can use him at each position and DH one of the regulars every day, but then that takes at bats away from people already on this team. It will be very interesting to see what Cap’n Joe and company do with the kid. His talent, of course, is through the roof - and I wouldn’t be surprised if, when given a chance to play, he completely rips the cover off the ball. In fact, the emergence of Dukes is what makes me believe that Rocco Baldelli might find himself in a different uniform before the season’s end. The best place for him, in my opinion, is in the majors - where the organization can keep a closer eye on him and make sure he avoids the same pitfalls and perils that hounded him in the minors. He’s a great story, brings a great energy, and should be a great player for many years to come. The question is - when will we get to see it?

PROJECTED: 109 G, .262/.340/.439, 14 HR, 54 RBI, 9 SB, 54 R

The Gamer
Jonny Gomes is a gamer, and no one will ever doubt his hustle, his drive, or his will to play the game of baseball. The doubts that we do have, however, are about where he will play in 2007, and if he can return to the form that made him one of the team’s most dangerous hitters in 2005. Ideally, he would begin the season as the DH, and then filling in for Delmon whenever the need arises. He is, unfortunately, a man without a position on this team. If he hits, the team will find a way to play him. But will he hit?

PROJECTED: 134 G, .247/.345/.457, 22 HR, 67 RBI, 6 SB, 70 R

Others
Dustan Mohr saw extended play time in Spring Training, but he’s not likely to make much of an impact on the team. Fan-favorite Damon Hollins is gone. You can expect that any additional outfield innings would be covered by Greg Norton or B.J. Upton. There’s no other outfielders on the 40-man. The future is RIGHT NOW for this outfield. Get used to these guys.

Tomorrow, I’ll spotlight the starting pitching.

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There’s no ties in baseball!

Box Score

The Rays and Red Sox played to a 3-3 tie today at Fort Myers. Edwin Jackson got the start for the Rays, and a handful of regulars saw playing time. (Source)

What Went Right
Action Jackson was solid, going 6 strong innings, allowing only 1 run on 7 scattered hits. He struck out 5. He also got more ground outs (8) than fly outs (5), which is always encouraging. Carl Crawford was a legit baller today, going 2-for-3 with a triple. He accounted for all 3 runs the Rays scored, knocking in two of them and scoring the third. Dukes went 2-for-2, and Carlos Pena went 2-for-4 in a last-ditch effort to make the club.

What Went Wrong
3 errors today. BenZo made a poor throw from short on a Julio Lugo grounder that he probably should have squeezed, while Jackson and Velandia also both booted one. Zobrist’s error led to the Red Sox’ first run. Though you don’t expect Ryu to be closing out games for the Rays, he suffered from a case of 2006-itis, as he allowed solo homers in the 8th and 9th innings to tie the game. Cantu got a hit, but struck out twice and left a few guys in scoring position.

Scott’s Take
Well, I never really know how to feel about a tie. At least they didn’t lose, right? A bunch of regulars played. Some guys were trying to play their way onto the roster. Cantu probably didn’t do anything to help his cause today, while Carlos Pena might have. Crawford hit his 4th (FOURTH!) triple of the spring, and stole his 8th base in 8 tries. I think he’s ready for the season. Upton played the whole game at second - could this be a foreshadowing of things to come?

Friday is a big day, as the hope is that Baldelli, Navarro, and Paul will all see playing time against the Reds. Also, a number of cuts are expected to go down before the weekend. If you ask me, the smart money is on Cantu going, Gomer staying, and Upton starting the season at second.

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Bye bye Danny

As reported by Marc Lancaster on his blog, Dan Miceli has been cut by the Rays today. (Source)

Miceli has a track record as a bit of a problem in the clubhouse, and I’m sure you remember the comments that he made earlier in the spring about the club. Its probably best for both sides that the split took place. Let’s be honest - he did a decent job last year, but there’s lots of people that can do a decent job in middle relief. He was never going to be lights-out, and with him on the roster, it was taking away from the flexibility to find someone who could be.

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