Rays of Light

Meet Your New Rays

With Julio Lugo off to the other side of the country, it’s time to meet the new faces in the Devil Rays organization.

Joel Guzman - SS/3B/OF
To get a guy like Joel Guzman in a deal for Lugo is fantastic. Guzman has the potential to be a star in the big leagues. Here is what John Sickels had to say about him earlier in the year.

Joel Guzman was signed by the Dodgers as a free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2001. One of the most sought-after players in Dominican history, he signed for a record bonus in excess of $2.2 million. He struggled early in his career, but started to put things together in 2004 at the age of 19. Guzman had some disciplinary problems initially, but has outgrown this and is now regarded as a hard worker.

Guzman is a righthanded hitter and thrower, tall, lanky, but strong at 6-5, 225 pounds. He is an excellent overall athlete. His running speed is average but good considering his size. Although not a large stolen base threat, he’s improved his reads on the bases and is increasingly skilled as a baserunner. His best defensive tool is his arm, strong enough for third base or shortstop. The Dodgers moved him to the outfield this spring, and he has more than enough arm for right field. He needs to improve reading balls and running routes, but the early reports on his defensive transition are positive and he is expected to become a good outfielder with experience. With the bat, Guzman has excellent bat speed and plus/plus power potential. He can be fooled by breaking balls at times, leading to strikeouts, and in general he needs to improve his plate discipline. If he can refine the strike zone, he is capable of Miguel Cabrera-type numbers.

Guzman is only 21 years old, and is farther away from his peak. As stated, scouts believe that Guzman has Miguel Cabrera-like ability, if he can gain sufficient command of the strike zone.

~ Minor League Ball

If that was all we got, I’d be happy right there. But, we also add an OF in the deal as well.

Sergio Pedroza - OF
Pedroza came into the season as an average prospect with great power. This is a guy that has 40+ homerun power. He is a 3rd round pick out of Cal State Fullerton, where they always play good baseball. In just 61 games last year he hit 16 homeruns. Combine that with the 16 he hit in college and you’re talking 32 homeruns in his college/minor league totals combined in 2005. This season he has spent the majority of his time playing for A ball affiliate, Columbus. In 89 games for them, he has a .281 average with an OBP of .437 to go along with his 21 HR and 75 RBI.

When you look at what we got in this deal. I think we made out like bandits.

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Scouting Report on the Detroit Tigers

Starters for the series

Monday - Kenny Rogers

Tuesday - Justin Verlander

Wednesday - Zach Minor

Kenny Rogers
Control woes have put the American League’s All-Star Game starter in a slump. He has allowed 27 runs over his last 26 innings, despite holding the White Sox to a run in six innings during that stretch. However, the Devil Rays might be the solution to those struggles. He held Tampa Bay to a run on four hits in eight innings earlier this season at Comerica Park, improving his career record against the Rays to 9-3. ~ (MLB.com)

Ever since he had a rib removed to improve circulation in 2001, Rogers has seen improved velocity. He’s not a power pitcher by any means, but he still can get a fastball up to 90 MPH when he needs to. He’s got a nice little curve and uses the changeup, and he’ll throw them just about anywhere, though he likes to stay away with the change. Rogers never gives in to hitters and isn’t afraid to go into deep counts. Hitters used that against him in the second half, though, pushing his pitch count high and tiring him out earlier.

As a groundball pitcher, Rogers helps himself with quick reactions, good hands and impeccable instincts. He won his third Gold Glove in the last five years in 2004. During that period, he’s handled more total chances than any pitcher in the American League. He has an outstanding pickoff move and can vary his times to first base. The only drawback is an occasional preoccupation with the baserunner, which can affect his concentration on the hitter. ~ (STATS Inc)

Justin Verlander
So much for worrying how Verlander will hold up over the season’s second half. The AL Rookie of the Year candidate has won each of his three starts in dominant fashion since the All-Star break, the latest a 4-1 win over the Indians in which he took a shutout into the seventh inning at Jacobs Field. He gave up two runs on three hits over six innings in a no-decision against the Devil Rays on June 12 at Comerica Park. ~ (MLB.com)

Verlander is a three pitch pitcher with a good fastball. He also throws a curveball, and a changeup. He uses the fastball about 65% of the time and will use the whole strike zone against right handed batters. Against the lefties, he tends to keep the ball away. When he does come inside, it’s almost always low. His ability to keep the ball low has allowed him to keep the ball in the park effectively. ~ (Rays of Light)

Zach Minor
Miner recovered from a series of struggling starts by keeping pace with rookie sensation Francisco Liriano on Friday at Minnesota. He must pitch aggressively to succeed, forcing ground ball outs and keeping his pitch counts down. ~ (MLB.com

Minor is a guy that can be very good at times. After a very good June, where he went 4-1 with an ERA of 2.59, Minor was not good in July. He mad five starts and went 2-1 with a 5.79 ERA. If the July Minor shows up on Wednesday, the Rays should be able to get to him early and force his pitch count up with patience at the plate. Just like the MLB report says, Minor needs to get the ground ball to be effective. His biggest problem is keeping the pitch count low. Currently, he is averaging 17.5 pitches per inning and just under 96 per start. That translates to under 6 innings per start.

Craig Monroe - hitting .480 with 4 doubles and 3 RBI in the last 7 days
Dimitri Young - 3 Homeruns in the last 7 days and hitting .467
Magglio Ordonez - hitting .231 but does have 7 RBI in the last 7 days

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Gotta Look at the Positives

BOX SCORE

What sort of baseball world do we live in now when we actually look forward to facing Randy Johnson instead of a guy like Wang? It seems like just yesterday that the Unit was dominating the Braves for a perfect game on TBS. I might add that I had planned to watch that game, but decided to watch a rerun of PBA bowling on ESPN classic. Good choice on my part. As a result, I have still never seen a no hitter live from open to close.

As far as today goes, I cam away impressed by what Jamie Shields showed on the mound today. When you look at the lineup he had to face, which features not one, not two, but five potential hall of fame hitters, to come away with a seven inning outing and only allow four runs is a victory. He had good command all day and even struck out A-Rod three separate occasions. Shields has now looked encouraging for two straight starts. Hopefully that is an indication that he’s over the first hurdle that a young pitcher must face, the adjustment stage. When Shields came up the big leagues, he dazzled in his first few starts. He was a fresh face and it took hitters a little bit to develop a scouting report on him. Once they caught on, he began to get pounded. Hopefully now, he has begun to make the adjustments necessary and will continue to improve as the season winds down. I was particularly impressed with the job he did in the 6th inning. With two outs, Crawford loses the ball in the sun which ends up being a double. Shields, who had all but put the inning in the book was visibly shaken by the mistake but kept his focus and retired the new hitter to keep from being scored on as a result of a boner play. That takes poise at Yankee stadium and Shields showed me some onions on his part. I tip my cap to him.

This game also left me with some questions that I would love to hear your answers on. Feel free to help with that by leaving your thoughts in the comment section.

1. Why is Travis Lee hitting in the cleanup role? - Last I checked, a “clean up” hitter is someone who can do exactly that, clean up the base with men on. Travis Lee does anything BUT that. He is now 4 for his last 51 with runners in scoring position. That is far from a cleanup hitter in my book and I would love an explanation why I should accept that lineup placement of him as a fan of this team.

2. Why do guys like Pujols, Giambi, etc. not work on their bunting so they can lay one down with the massive shift on? - If i’m a hitter and I see that the third basemen is playing virtually behind the 2nd base bag, I am beginning to work like a mad man on my third base side bunting ability. You wouldn’t want to do it often, but could you imagine the shock in a clutch situation when everyone is thinking hit and you lay a bunt down and walk to first? It would be classic. I hate the big shift that teams play and I would love to see players like Pujols begin to combat it with the bunt. Keep those defenses honest.

3. With a runner on 3rd base and our 1 and 2 hitters at the plate and one out, how can we not score a run? - Not only do we not score, but we Lugo and Crawford both strikeout. All Lugo needs to do is put the ball in play and that run scores. These are the kind of plays that winning teams make and losing teams like the Rays flounder. Regardless of the fact that the Rays came out in the 4th to score two runs and answer back, they failed to execute in the clutch in that situation in the 3rd. That has got to stop.

4. With the loss of Wigginton and Kazmir to the DL, who gets the call as of tomorrow? - My money is on B.J. Upton grudgingly and either Jason Hammel or J.P. Howell for the rotation. If it were me, I would call Upton up to play 3b and call up Juan Salas for the pen, which would allow you to move Jon Switzer to the starting rotation for a start or two. We’ll wait and see. The Rays will make that call tomorrow and we’ll comment on it after the decision has been made.

Another good series coming up. The most intriguing game appears to be Tuesday as the Tigers will send Justin Verlander to face TBA. I have yet to see the youngster pitch, but if he’s half as good as Liriano was in his start, we’re in for a low scoring contest.

On a side note, be looking for the next installment of the Big League Baseball Report podcast on Tuesday evening. Phil and I will be breaking down all the deadline deals for you. A website is coming soon. Until then, I’ll provide links and iTunes subscription info right here for you.

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Yankee Spankee

Box Score

I am beginning to think someone slipped me some LSD. I could have sworn I saw Tomas Perez hit 4 doubles while going 5-5 against the Yankees. But seriously, who were these people? Gomes, Cantu and Lee all went long, Jae Seo picked up his first win as a Ray and the Rays pummeled the Yankess 19-6. Man that feels good to write.

The Rays continued their twiglight zone dominance of Randy Johnson, chasing him off after a horrific 3 1-3 innings, during which he gave up 9 runs, six earned. As brilliant as Randy Johnson has been throughout his career, it is safe to say night is falling on that golden slider of his. He left it up in the zone and it tuned into something reminiscent of a batting practice fastball.

Unfortunately, the main story here is the injury of Ty Wigginton. It appears he broke a bone in his hand after getting hit be a Shawn ìI suckî Chacon fastball. Early reports indicate a 4-6 week stint on the DL, which may keep us out of the playoffs. But seriously, the injury is bad not only in that he has become an integral component of the team, but there were rumors that the Rays were pleasantly surprised with some trade offers that were coming in for the man. Of course what those offers were is a mystery and not made public. But bottom line, this injury will render him useless on the field and in the market. A cruel world indeed.

It looks like the Rays are aggressively trying to lock up Julio Lugo, and I have to admit I am surprised. It doesnít follow that cutthroat management Sternberg and Co. have been showing off in the last month. If they are able to work something out, we are going to get a chance to see what some no name prospect can do at third. He is name is B.J. something or other. I wonder if heís ready to come up?

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Rays @ Yankees - Series Preview

Game 1 Starters			Game 2 Starters			Game 3 Starters
Corcoran	Wang		Seo	Johnson		Shields	Mussina
Stats	Stats		Stats	Stats		Stats	Stats

Note - I have decided to go with a series preview instead of individual game previews because I think it will be less clutter overall. The starters for each game are listed. Under them is a link to their ESPN player page where you can view splits, career stats, etc. If you like the old preview better, be sure to let me know that.

Season Series - The Yankees lead the season series 6 to 2

Trends - The Yankees come into the series with a three game win streak and 1.5 games out of the lead in the divisional race. The Devil Rays come in on a loss to the Angels on Wednesday afternoon.

Chien-Ming Wang
Wang is primarily a two pitch pitcher. He throws Fastball and Slider over 90% of the time and usually will rely on his fastball to get hitters out. However, he rarely throws the Slider to the left handed hitters and relies on his changeup as the second pitch against them. He’ll generally try to work away from the lefties and righties. He rarely comes inside with his pitches. He is not a strike out pitcher and will get the majority of his outs on ground balls. He’s an efficient worker that likes to get out of the inning with as few pitches as possible. ~ (Rays of Light)

Wang didn’t have his strongest outing in his last start, but kept the Yankees close enough to win. He allowed four earned runs and 10 hits in six innings, which is below Wang’s high standards he has set this season. Wang is 2-3 with a 4.97 career era against the Devil Rays. ~ (MLB.com)

Randy Johnson
Johnson no longer regularly cranks it up to 99 MPH. He may hit 98 on a good night, but pitches at 90-96 MPH and regularly works inside. His slider doesn’t have quite the wicked break of the past, but he has better command of both pitches. Sometimes he will even throw back-door sliders to the outside corner against righthanded hitters, as well as one that breaks toward their shoes. Johnson also throws a split-finger pitch that acts as a changeup and a two-seam fastball that can get him a groundball. His pickoff move is nothing special. He is a below-average fielder and often is late covering first base on grounders to the right side. ~ (STATS Inc)

Johnson was solid once again in his last start, going six innings while giving up just two earned runs. Johnson topped 100 pitches for the second consecutive start. The Big Unit has a 3.15 ERA in his past four starts. Johnson is 3-3 with a 4.65 ERA against the Devil Rays during his career. ~ (MLB.com)

Mike Mussina
Despite a drop in his 2004 numbers, Mussina still possesses the stuff to dominate at times, as when he held the potent Red Sox’ lineup hitless through 6.1 innings in Game 1 of the ALCS. Mussina has impeccable command of a low-90s fastball. It has late life in the strike zone and occasionally he will sink it arm-side for added effect. To complement this pitch, Mussina mixes in a knuckle-curve, slider, changeup and splitter. With age, he has become adept at changing speeds with his breaking pitches and has experimented with different arm slots to disrupt the hitter. A workhorse his entire career, Mussina failed to reach the 200-inning plateau for the first time in a decade. An excellent fielder, Mussina has enough Gold Gloves to fill a basement. Two errors this season matched the most he had ever made in a single campaign. Instincts and good positioning always have been his recipe for proficient fielding. The nearly 30-percent jump in successful stolen-base percentage probably was due to a tender right groin he nursed midseason. ~ (STATS Inc)

Mussina wasn’t spectacular in his last start. But as he’s done since the All-Star break, he pitched well enough to win. The Yankees’ ace allowed three earned runs in six innings and the bullpen held the lead. Mussina has allowed at least three runs in each of his past four starts. He is 14-5 with a 3.40 ERA in his career versus the Devil Rays. ~ (MLB.com)

Series Outlook - Right now the Rays are not playing good baseball. We really need a big series from our pitching staff. I would love to see them come out and shut down the Yankees for us to win two of three. I think our best bet will be the Seo game and the Corcoran game. If we can win those two, it would take the pressure off of Shields and hopefully allow him to throw well on the big stage of Yankee Stadium.

I look for Jorge Cantu to hit at least two homeruns in this series and be the offensive star for the Rays over the weekend.

Prediction - Rays get a good outing from Corcoran but fail to score enough to support him. Jae Seo goes 6 strong and the Rays hang on for a win. Jamie Shields reverts back to the pre-last start Jamie Shields and gets hammered, leaving after 3 innings of work.

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Podcast is here

I am pleased to announce the arrival of a podcast on this site. I have teamed up with new blogger Phil Zuber of A Cub Fan’s Obsession. Phil has a degree in radio so it helps to have someone like that to get the ball rolling.

The Podcast will be called the Big League Baseball Report. We have plans to produce a podcast at least every other week. It will be increased if there is a demand there. This first podcast is a little longer than they will normally be, but we have some good topics on there. Here is a rundown of the broadcast (33 min)

• Discussion of booing in sports
• 5 Hitters potentially on the move before the deadline
• 5 Pitchers potentially on the move before the deadlne
• Cubs that could or should be moved before the deadline

We’re excited to bring this podcast to you. We really value your feedback. Give it a listen and please use the comment section. Enjoy!!!

Download the Podcast (MP3) - Here

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The Battle for Supreme Mediocrity

Box Score

Today the recap fell to me. What a day to have to write. This was a game in which the Devil Rays players held a battle to see who was the king of sucktatude.

Exhibit A - Jorge Cantu got the ball rolling with his bonehead, two out error that opened the floodgates slightly for the Angels. Casey Fossum, who could use all the help he can get right now, was pitching decent in the first. He got the first two men he faced with relative ease and was looking for a rare perfect inning. Cantu’s boner and immediately the wheels begin to fall off the Casey Fossum good start bandwagon.

Exhibit B - Casey Fossum decided that giving up unearned runs is not as fun as giving up earned runs and decided he would give up a whopping 5 of them in 1/3 of an inning in the 2nd. What happened to the guy who started so well in the first?

Exhibit C - Enter Edwin Jackson to stop the bleeding, or in this circumstance, start a new gash. Jackson, who I am embarrassed to say that I thought should be in the rotation, has now seen his ERA balloon to a most triumphant 8.72. Way to announce your presence with authority big man. I think maybe a trip to Durham may do you some good. Tell Crash I said hello.

Exhibit D - Three errors in the field. One by Cantu, one by Wigginton, and one by Lugo. Obviously you can’t blame the errors for the loss directly, but they certainly didn’t help our cause at trying to achieve baseball respectability. The Rays can’t afford to make errors like this. They don’t have the pitching to cover their butts for mistakes of this caliber.

There is no excuse for the performance today. This team has got to address some of it’s glaring flaws and do it soon. There is no reason to waste these last 2 months. Let’s start evaluating some minor league talent, especially in the pitching area.

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The Ty That Binds

He did it in the Boston series, he did it in the Yankees series, and he did it tonight. Ty Wigginton has shown us again and again that he is the one off season acquisition that has been unwaveringly positive. Tonight it was his 2 run homer in the sixth that tied the game and shifted the momentum towards the Rays. He went on to have 4 RBI on the night in support of James Shields sloppy, yet effective 6 1-3 innings.

Jon Switzer took the win, coming in with 2 on and 1 out in the sixth and retiring both batters he faced with no damage done. It was the finest performance to come out of our ëpen since before the break, and I wouldnít be surprised to see him become our setup man once things fall into place.

Ervin Santana looked spotless until he hung the slider that Wiggington took for a ride. Once the gates were opened, the Rays flooded through, tacking 6 runs onto Santanaís tab before running him off after 6 1-3. It was his first loss in 10 starts.

It was nice to see the Rays execute. They didnít need a dozen runs to keep the lead. The great outing by Raysí pitching was not left high and dry without run support. Fundamentals were intact, there was patience in the batterís box, and the team continued to perform on all levels no matter which side of the scoreboard they were on. It makes all those losses that much more frustrating knowing that the team is capable of such solid play.

This and That
Jonny Gomes is in a bad place right now. My friends and I were predicting the pitches he would see and were correct more than we should have been. While it used to be breaking balls that were his kryptonite, he is now getting attacked by high heat that he is not catching up too. He does have the shoulder issue, and of course I have no idea how that is affecting his bat speed, but he appears to be over-guessing at the plate. He is looking for breaking balls and therefore swinging through or behind fastballs that he used to knock over the Skyway Bridge. He is much too talented a hitter for this to be a long term issue, but the opposing pitching has adjusted for his batting, and now he must make adjustments in order to compensate for this.

Julio Lugo was once again benched with a sore finger he got when he was hit by a pitch in the Oriole’s series. It’s the same old baseball injury: the player says, “I’m fine,” the manager says, “He’s day to day,” and the translation is, “We might tell you when we know more.” In the meantime, we’re all day to day.

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Angels @ Rays - Game 2 Preview

	VS
J. Shields		E. Santana
4-4	W-L	11-3
5.75	ERA	4.03
1.67	WHIP	1.22
7.03	K/9	6.55
.317	BAA	.234
5	HR	10
vs. Ana		vs. TB

This is an important start for Jamie Shields. He came up with a flash of greatness and has since tapered off in a big way. One or two more bad starts and he could be replaced in the rotation and sent back to AAA for some fine tuning during the last part of the minor league season. Shields needs to step up and show he belongs in the big leagues in this next start or two if he wants to stay.

Scouting Report on Ervin Santana

This is a kid I really like. I would love to somehow see him end up in a Rays uniform. He has great stuff and is beginning to show he belongs in the league. He is on pace to win 19 games if he makes 35 starts. For a second year pitcher, that’s tremendous. He throws fastball and slider primarily and will generally start hitters out with the fastball and use it almost exclusively when behind in the count. He doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, but can get the strikeout with regularity. He likes to work away and low on the right handed hitters, which means we’re going to need to try to take the ball to rightfield. He rarely comes in on their hands so it’s very imporant for our hitters to be looking away. He has a ground ball to fly ball rate of 0.86 which is improved from the 0.78 of last year. He’s beginning to learn to get the ground ball and keep it in the park. However, he is still susceptable to the longball if we can get to him. ~ (Rays of Light)

Santana is 7-0 in nine starts since his last loss on May 31 against the Twins. Santana, however, is coming off perhaps his worst outing of the season. In a no-decision on Thursday at Kansas City, Santana walked a career-high eight batters and uncorked two wild pitches in 4 1/3 innings. He threw just 46 strikes in 103 pitches, allowing four runs and five hits. ~ (MLB.com)

Game Notes

• Dan Miceli has begun he rehab at AA Montgomery but did not see action for some reason. He has been out since early in the year and should be on pace to return by the end of the month or early August.
• Ervin Santana has owned the Devil Rays in two starts this season. In two starts, he has a pair of wins and an ERA of 1.93
• Since the All Star Break, the Rays have been brutal. That’s not a new statement. How brutal? Here are some numbers for you. The team ERA is 7.34 and opponents are hitting an astounding .363 against them. Think it’s just the starters? The Bullpen has an ERA of 8.63 in that time period.
• If you take out the two wins since the all star break, the Rays are hitting .182 in that stretch. Ouch!!!
• This will be Shields third straight start in which he has faced a Santana. After today, he’ll need to line up a gig with Carlos and he’ll have the trifecta.
• Jonny Gomes has yet to get a hit on this homestand. He’s 0 for 10 with 2 BB

Joe’s Fearless Prediction
For some reason, I have a hunch on this game. Since it is the third time we will have seen this guy this season, it’s time we get to him. I look for the Rays hitters to be on top of their game and be on Santana for a few early runs. Santana will settle down and give the Angels 6 or 7 good innings and leave with a quality start. That leaves it all on Shields. I have a feeling he’ll get roughed up early and head to the showers before the 4th inning is complete.

Final Score:
Angels - 5
Rays - 4

Jon’s Cowardly Prediction
The Angels are hot. Their offense is running perfectly right now and it seems like the table is constantly set for their big bats. Santana is rolling also, and while I agree he’s not going to shut us out, I do think he will effectively keep our bats quiet enough until their bullpen takes over. And this is not one of the bullpens you look foward to getting into, they can flat shut you down. As for our friend James Shields, the honeymoon is officially over for this guy. While I wish him the best, I predict the worst.

Final Score:
Angels - 7
Rays - 3

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Winds of Change are Blowing

The White Sox have wasted no time going out and getting the pieces they need to move closer toward a repeat championship. On Monday they deal for Mike MacDougal who has just returned from the DL. In addition, they’re rumored to be very close to a deal that would send Brandon McCarthy to the Nationals for Alfonso Soriano. This move would give the White Sox arguably the most potent offense in the majors to go along with a very good pitching staff. Seeing what the Sox have done recently, turning a franchise marred by ineptitude and scandal into a perennial repeat champion should give the Devil Rays fans some hope.

Dustin McGowan

2006 AAA Statistics GM W L IP K ERA 20 4 5 78 80 4.73

As the deadline quickly approaches, there is still a lot of talk about Julio Lugo, who many believe will not be back after this season. The main rumor around now is that Lugo will be on his way to the Blue Jays in a deal that would see the Rays acquire at least one, maybe two arms from the Jays farm. The names that have been kicked around are Dustin McGowan, a former first round pick, Brandon League, and Shaun Marcum.. I’m not incredibly intrigued by League, who really hasn’t ever been dominant in the minor leagues. That tells me that success in the Majors will be tough to come by. McGowan does intrigue me. He’s not having the greatest year down in AAA, which could lower his value to the Jays and could yield an extra player for us as a result. If we can secure a couple of arms for a player that would have left via FA anyway, it’s a win for us.

In other news, Deadspin is reporting a story that Baseball Tonight analyst Harold Reynolds has been fired from ESPN very suddenly. Neither side would comment on the firing, but Reynolds was not on the Monday night Baseball Tonight broadcast. To me, this is a sad move. I liked Harold Reynolds. He wasn’t a great broadcaster, but he held my interest and seemed to be likable to the players and fans. This now throws a major kink into the celebrity softball game that he always manages (and loses). Maybe that’s why he was fired. I’m anxious to see what it was that Reynolds did or did not do to warrant getting canned so quickly. I can think of a number of people that deserve to be fired more than Reynolds. I won’t name any names, but one of them has a last name that Rhymes with organ. =)

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