As the unanimous, at least as far as I’ve seen, opinion that the Cubs have the best farm system in baseball indicates, the Cubs have a number of talents in their minor league system who project as quality Major Leaguers. Two of these players with elite prospect status are likely to get the opportunity to make big impacts in the Majors early in 2015: Kris Bryant and Jorge Soler.
Kris Bryant (3B, 23 years old)
Tennessee (Double A): 297 PAs, .355/.458/.702, 22 HRs, 26% K rate, 14% BB rate, .347 ISO, .440 BABIP, 220 wRC+, 8 SB, 2 CS
Iowa (Triple A): 297 PAs, .295/.418/.619, 21 HRs, 29% K rate, 14% BB rate, .324 ISO, .367 BABIP, 164 wRC+, 7 SBs, 2 CS
Along with Twins CF Byron Buxton, Bryant has been one of two players mentioned in the top prospect slot in top 100 lists this winter. Bryant has an elite power bat, with at least 70 power on the scouting scale, and a strong ability to get on base.
Bryant’s only offensive concern is a high strikeout rate, but Bryant does not show the concerns that Javier Baez does. Baez incurs a high strikeout rate because of a poor approach and an inability to read breaking balls early enough. Bryant has a typical high power/high walks/high strikeouts approach. He’s going to look for a pitch he can crush, will take pitches until he gets one, and won’t cheat to contact much with two strikes. It’s a Giancarlo Stanton like approach, and Bryant has similar offensive gifts as the Marlins’ slugger.
There are also defensive questions about Bryant, although most scouts I’ve seen have said he should be able to at least be acceptable, if not average, at the hot corner for now. The bigger concern is if, at his size (he’s listed at 6’5”, 215 pounds), his body can hold up to the demands of the position long term. While he’s likely to at least start his career at 3B, he could be moving to an outfield corner based on the success of players like Baez, Arismendy Alcantara, and Addison Russell, and in any case will likely be headed to the outfield meaningfully before his 30th birthday.
A comp I’ve heard frequently for Bryant is Troy Glaus. And before you say “ugh, Troy Glaus?!”, just go ahead and look at Glaus’s early career numbers before the injuries started piling up. If Bryant can avoid injuries and maintain that type of offensive production throughout the next seven season, Cubs fans will be very, very happy.
Bryant will almost certainly start the season in Iowa under some pretense to gain an extra year of service time before he hits free agency. He will be up once that extra year accrues, which should happen on April 15. So it might be a very happy tax day for Cubs fans.
Likely 2015 Starting Spot: Iowa.
MLB Debut: Mid-April to early May 2015.
Jorge Soler (RF, 23 years old)
Tennessee: 79 PAs, .415/.494/.862, 6 HRs, 19% K rate, 15% BB rate, .447 ISO, .457 BABIP, 265 wRC+, 0 SBs, 0 CS
Iowa: 127 PAs, .282/.378/.618, 8 HRs, 20% K rate, 13% BB rate, .336 ISO, .303 BABIP, 149 wRC+, 0 SBs, 1 CS
MLB: 97 PAs, .262/.318/.470, 5 HRs, 25% K rate, 6 % walk rate, .208 ISO, .295 BABIP, 146 wRC+, 1 SB, 0 CS
Soler entered 2014 as the prospect Cubs fans were most wary about due to a somewhat down 2013 season heavily affected by injuries. While he continued to struggle through a couple of hamstring injuries over the first half of the season, Soler’s production when healthy answered any questions of whether he could play at an elite level.
Soler tore up the Southern League so masterfully the Cubs sent him up to Triple A after just 79 plate apperancess, and then beat up the Pacific Coast League to nearly the same extent as Bryant did before Soler received his MLB call up. In both minor league stops, Soler showed an ability to hit for power, get on base, and limit strikeouts to a respectable level.
I think some Cub fans are overrating Soler’s MLB debut based upon their first looks at him because he had such an amazing first five games (.526/.550/1.211, 3 HRs, 391 wRC+ in 20 PAs). Soler struggled for his remaining 19 games of the season (.229/.273/.400, 2 HRs, 82 wRC+ in 77 PAs). By no means, however, does this mean I’m down on Soler. He has elite tools, and is very refined for both his age and amount of professional experience. He should continue to hit for power, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see it take a couple of seasons for the walk and strikeout rates to return to his dominant minor league levels. If not for Bryant, he’d likely be the front runner for NL Rookie of the Year.
Likely 2015 Starting Spot: Chicago. The only way Soler won’t start the season as the right fielder in Wrigley is if he isn’t healthy on Opening Day.