USA on Track (and on Snow)

With six days left, Canada has fallen too far behind. Before the Olympics started it looked like they had a good shot at winning the medal race. But the United States has risen to the occasion and is in the lead, with Germany coming on strong the last couple of days. Vancouver’s proximity to the United States gives the US an element of the home field advantage as well. Here is the medal situation as of this morning:

Nevertheless, based on the remaining events, we still predict that Canada will come on strong. In fact, we predict them to win the most medals in the remaining six days (15, compared to 9 for USA and 7 for Germany). Our projected final totals at this point are:

While we fell short on our original projection for Canada, our original United States projection (10 golds and 33 total medals) is still right on the button.

“Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week™, www.statoftheweek.com.”

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The Missing Ingredient of Pitcher Defense

Mark Buehrle won both the Gold Glove and Fielding Bible Award last season, and justifiably so. The White Sox southpaw saved a league-leading seven runs by fielding his position, according to the Plus/Minus System.

However, Buehrle also excelled in the often-overlooked part of pitcher defense: controlling the running game. Buehrle only allowed four stolen bases in 213 innings, but he didn’t get any help from his catchers. Buehrle caught four runners stealing without a throw to the plate, and picked off four additional runners, tops in the league. All said, this adds up to four Runs Saved for the holding runenrs component:

Over the past seven seasons, Buehrle has led the league four times and has totaled a remarkable 27 Stolen Base Runs Saved by controlling the running game.

Carl Pavano is the other extreme. Pavano has rated below average in six out of the past seven seasons costing his teams an estimated ten runs (-10 Runs Saved); the only thing that kept Pavano from rating below average in 2006 was an injury which forced him to miss the entire year. AL Central baserunners were thrilled to see Pavano re-sign with Minnesota this offseason. The worst pitcher at holding runners over the last seven seasons was Tim Wakefield with -10 Runs Saved.

“Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week™, www.statoftheweek.com.”

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Stat of the Week: The Super Bowl Prediction System

All the betting lines favor the Colts right now by five or six points, but in my book it’s a toss-up. If I were a betting man, I’d take the Saints and the points. But if you do that, don’t blame me if you lose. It’s that close.

In my Super Bowl prediction system there are 12 different indicators, each one taken by itself predicts the Super Bowl winner 56% to 69% of the time. Taken collectively, the indicators have an even better track record. The system favors the team that wins the most indicators and it has predicted 15 of the last 19 Super Bowl winners. This year the prediction system picks the New Orleans Saints to win a Super Bowl in their first appearance in history.

However…

The margin is the slimmest of margins. The system has the Saints winning 7 of the 12 indicators. That goes against the grain given that the Indianapolis Colts are favored in Las Vegas. I like that. The system has a strong track record going against the line. But the prediction system has not performed well when a team wins less than eight of the indicators. Going back 19 years to 1990, the system is only 3-2 on games with less than eight indicators going to the favored team. Going back all-time, the system is 6-7 with less than eight indicators.

Plus, if we had gone to the tiebreaker (when six indicators go to each team), the tiebreaker would favor the Colts. The tiebreaker gives the nod to the team with previous Super Bowl experience. In 17 Super Bowls where one team has been there and the other hasn’t, the experienced team has won 13 times.

For record keeping, if the Saints win, the system will also notch a victory. If the Colts win, the system loses. But I learned my lesson two years ago when the system favored the Patriots with 7 of the 12 indicators and the Giants won. I am calling it a toss-up.

Each indicator is shown here. Interestingly, while the system favors the Saints overall, the three best indicators (the bottom three) each favor the Colts.

There are five defensive indicators, four offensive ones, and three based on overall stats. The strongest indicators overall are the defensive ones.

“Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week™, www.statoftheweek.com.”

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Stat of the Week: Going First to Third

The Angels in 2009 advanced from first to third on a single 128 times — twenty more than any other major league team. The only three major league players who have gone from first to third on a single more than 50% of the time in their careers (50 or more opportunities) are Torii Hunter, Chone Figgins and Erick Aybar — all Angels in 2009.

This is an example of over 300 nuggets from the Bill James Gold Mine 2010, coming out in March. Here’s another nugget:

Why Does This Always Happen to Cleveland?

The Indians lost their last 15 road games of the season, the most consecutive road losses by any major league team to end a season since the infamous 1899 Cleveland Spiders.

“Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week™, www.statoftheweek.com.”

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Stat of the Week: The Red Sox Believe in Defense

The Boston Red Sox fell from an estimated 20 Defensive Runs Saved as a team in 2008 to second worst in baseball at -52 Runs Saved last year. This, no doubt, was a key contributing factor for the pitching staff’s increased ERA. Mike Lowell played through a hip injury that turned a previously good defender into an abysmal one, totaling -18 Runs Saved at third. Additionally, young shortstop Jed Lowrie hit the DL early in 2009, forcing Nick Green, Alex Gonzalez, and the defensively-challenged Julio Lugo into the lineup as fill-ins. The team acquired another bat in Victor Martinez, a notoriously bad defensive catcher.

Recognizing their defensive shortcomings, General Manager Theo Epstein has brought in three defensively-minded acquisitions this offseason: Adrian Beltre, Marco Scutaro, and Mike Cameron. Here’s how each performed in 2009 compared to the Red Sox at their respective positions:

Source: Bill James Online

If the new acquisitions manage to repeat their performances from last year, that’s an upgrade of 84 runs on defense alone. Beltre, Scutaro, and Cameron all had defensive seasons consistent with their previous seasons, based on Defensive Runs Saved, so a repeat of 2009 isn’t out of the question.

Additionally, the Red Sox will move centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury to replace average defender Jason Bay in left field, where Ellsbury’s weak arm can hide and his range will shine. Based on his previous performance at the corner outfield spots, Ellsbury is likely to be a five to ten run defensive improvement over Bay.

Using the rule of thumb that 10 runs equals one win, defense could boost Boston as many as eight or nine wins beyond their 2009 win total. While the Red Sox haven’t signed any big name free agent hitters (though they did add pitcher John Lackey), it is our estimation that improved defense alone will easily more than make up for lost offensive production (primarily the loss of Jason Bay).

“Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week™, www.statoftheweek.com.”

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Aaron Harang’s New Year’s Resolution

The Following is used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week®, www.statoftheweek.com.

I, Aaron Harang, resolve to get more run support in 2010.

Harang received the worst run support in baseball last year as the Reds only scored an average of 3.2 runs per nine innings while he was on the mound. Basically, the Reds’ offense hit opposing starters like they were facing Cliff Lee or CC Sabathia every time out.

Here’s the list of pitchers who received the lowest run support in 2009:

Harang’s record was 6-14, thanks in large part to an offense featuring Willy Taveras, Jerry Hairston, Paul Janish, and Alex Gonzalez. With persistent rumors about a trade to a contending team, Harang’s resolution is likely to come true in 2010. But even if he stays with the Reds, his run support should improve anyway. While the Reds’ team scoring rate of 4.13 runs per nine innings is poor, it is still well above the 3.22 runs they averaged for Harang.

Barry Zito pitched well for the Giants despite his 10-13 record. The Giants were 18-15 overall in Zito’s starts, and the former Cy Young Award winner allowed just 4.17 runs per nine innings. Matt Garza (8-12 record) received the lowest run support in the American League at just under 3.7 runs per nine innings despite pitching for one of the league’s stronger offense.

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The Tiger and the Mariner

I recently had a chance to sit down with The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010 and was completely captivated by the quality writing and analysis it contains.  I cannot recommend a book more highly than this year’s THT annual.  I was honored to contribute a piece on two interesting defensive developments from the 2009 season.  Here’s an excerpt from the article:

The Tigers

Two years ago, in 2008, the Detroit Tigers were going to set the world on fire.  There was talk of scoring 1,000 runs as a team, a feat accomplished only twice in the last 70 years.  They were supposed to be an offensive juggernaut.  They threw defense to the wind.  To bolster the offense, they moved their slick-fielding third baseman (Brandon Inge) to catcher.  This made room for the newly acquired basher Miguel Cabrera.  At that point Cabrera already had proven with his previous team (Marlins) that he was woeful at third, but the idea was that his offense would more than make up for his defense.

That particular experiment lasted exactly 14 games.

Cabrera made five errors and lost three runs defensively in those 14 games.  The Tigers then threw everything and everybody but the kitchen sink at the third base position. It was like tee-ball. (You know: Everyone gets a chance to try out at every position.)  Seven different players played third for the Tigers that season, and every single one of them lost runs defensively for the club.  Except Inge, the guy they could have been playing all along:

Defensive Runs Saved – 2008 Detroit Tigers Third Base

This motley third-base crew lost 21 runs defensively for the Tigers, their worst defensive position in 2008.

The thing is, in 2007 the Tigers were a very good defensive club. They had 57 defensive runs saved as a team, fourth best in baseball, and they won 88 games.  And third base was their strongest defensive position with 20 runs saved, thanks to Inge.

In 2008 the Tigers lost 88 games, and third base was their weakest defensive position.

In 2009 the Tigers rediscovered defensive religion.  They realized that what they tried in 2008 simply doesn’t work in major league baseball.  All offense and no defense doesn’t cut it.  A team needs balance.  Inge went back to third base, and the Tigers brought in one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, Gerald Laird, to take his place behind the plate.  At shortstop, the offensive-minded but mediocre defensively Edgar Renteria was sent packing.  He was replaced by the best defensive shortstop of the 21st^rrd century so far, Adam Everett. (That is my assessment based on my defensive metrics outlined in ! The Fielding Bible and The Fielding Bible, Volume II.)

What happened? The Tigers improved by 29 runs defensively at third base.  They improved by 17 runs at shortstop.  They improved their win total by 12 games and won 86 games for the season. They just missed the playoffs by losing the 163rd game of the year to the Twins, but they spent more time in first place in 2009 than any other team in the American League.

The Mariners

The Seattle Mariners were the most improved team in baseball in 2009.  They improved their record from 61-101 in 2008 to 85-77.  That’s an increase of 24 wins in one year.

The Seattle Mariners also were the most improved defensive team in baseball  this past season. This is not a coincidence.  They improved their Defensive Runs Saved as a team from 17 runs saved in 2008 to 109 runs saved in 2009.  That’s an increase of 92 runs in one year.

The rule of thumb among stat-heads is that 10 runs is about equal to a win.  Using this, we can estimate that Seattle’s defensive improvement gained the Mariners about nine additional wins in 2009 over the 2008 club.  That certainly doesn’t account for the entire 24-win improvement.  After all, hitting and pitching are also essential, but it does show how much defense matters.  Nine games out of the 24-win gain are significant. Give any team in major league baseball 92 more runs and see how far it moves up in the standings.

How did the Mariners do it?  Outfield defense is the main answer.  In 2008 they had only 11 runs saved defensively from their entire outfield.  Defensively, all they had was Ichiro.  He split time between right field and center field.  In right field he saved 15 runs defensively, but in center field he was pretty much average (-1 run saved).  In 2009 the team brought in two of the best defensive outfielders in the game to join Suzuki.  Franklin Gutierrez had just completed two seasons playing right field for the Indians, where he saved a total of 32 runs defensively.  Endy Chavez saved 23 runs playing all three outfield positions in the previous two years for the Mets.  And neither player was a regular on his team those years; neither started as many as 100 games in either season.

On the 2009 Mariners, Ichiro was moved back to right field and Gutierrez became the center fielder.  Chavez didn’t play full time, but played most in left field.  The results were spectacular. The outfield saved 56 runs defensively, the best in baseball.

Don’t like defense? Then you would be clueless in Seattle.

Team defensive charts accompany the article in The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010, and full defensive analysis is available on Bill James Online.  (Full disclosure:  THT 2010 is published by ACTA Sports.)

“Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week®, www.statoftheweek.com.”

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Do #1 starters face tougher opposing starters?

Teams traditionally line up their ace starters to pitch on Opening Day in order to get the season started off right.  If team schedules aligned perfectly, we’d see the aces square off against each other every fifth day; but injuries, off days, trades, and general ineffectiveness often jumble up the rotation and fans don’t get to see as many marquee matchups.  But how often do two teams’ Opening Day starters face fellow aces?

In 2009, the 30 Opening Day starters combined for 824 starts, and around 20% were against fellow #1 starters, more than any other single rotation spot.  However, a surprising 31% of their starts come against pitchers who weren’t even in the opposing team’s starting rotation to start the season!  Here’s the breakdown by rotation slot:

Ace Starters’ Opposing Starters (2009)

Some starters oppose more fellow aces than others.  Justin Verlander faced the opposition’s ace 11 times in 35 starts, the most in the majors.  The runner-up was Brad Penny, who faced 9 aces during his 24 starts with the Red Sox but just one in 6 starts with the Giants.  Penny went 7-8 for Boston but 4-1 while with San Francisco.  (He also cut his ERA in half, which surely helped his record.)

Here’s the list of starters who faced the most aces in 2009:

Pitchers Facing the Most Opposing #1s

Cy Young contenders Justin Verlander, Adam Wainwright, and CC Sabathia all racked up high win totals despite facing fellow aces quite frequently.  It helped that they had powerful offensive support as well.

“Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week®, www.statoftheweek.com.”

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Who are baseball’s best and worst baserunners?

In The Bill James Handbook 2010 we analyze a player’s baserunning ability.  For each player, we measure his ability to move first to third, second to home, and first to home in addition to the number of outs he records on the bases and how he fares in double plays.

While this year’s Handbook evaluates how each player performed in 2009, I thought it would be fun to take a look at baserunners over the past five years.  We took a look at each player’s baserunning gain (stolen bases are not included) in order to determine baseball’s best and worst baserunners for the past five seasons.

Best Baserunners, 2005-2009

According to this study, Grady Sizemore is the best baserunner in baseball with a  +104, despite only a +4 in 106 games played this year.   Think of that +104 as 104 extra bases taken compared to an average runner. Chase Utley, the only infielder on this list, comes in second with +96 and had an excellent year this year with a +27.  Willy Taveras is slightly behind Utley, followed by Ichiro Suzuki and Randy Winn.

Worst Baserunners, 2005-2009

Ordinarily, when we do a Stat of the Week that involves catchers, the Molina brothers appear on some sort of  “best-of” leaderboard.  When it comes to baserunning, however, the two Molina brothers with starting jobs are two of the five worst baserunners in baseball over the past five years.  At -97, Carlos Lee is right behind Bengie Molina’s league worst net gain of -106.  Mike Lowell also makes the list of worst baserunners, and is the lone infielder in the bottom five.  In 2009, Lowell was an abysmal -27.  The worst baserunner in 2009, Juan Rivera at -35, just missed the five-year list with -80.

Interestingly, despite Rivera’s -35, the Angels were baseball’s best baserunning team with a +77 team score.  The top five teams in 2009 were:

Best Baserunning Teams, 2009

The Kansas City Royals were the worst at -97 as a team.

Happy Thanksgiving!

“Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week®, www.statoftheweek.com.”

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Did Adam Jones and Torii Hunter deserve Gold Gloves?

Last week the Gold Gloves awards came out and American League center fielders Adam Jones and Torii Hunter were both honored.  Hunter won his eighth Gold Glove and Jones won his first.

However, neither did well in the Fielding Bible Awards.  Hunter finished ninth in the voting among all MLB center fielders.  The four AL center fielders that finished ahead of Hunter were 1-2-3-4 in the voting: 1-Franklin Gutierrez, 2-Carlos Gomez, 3-Curtis Granderson and 4-Rajai Davis. Jones did even worse.  Ten Fielding Bible Award panelists cast 10! 0 votes overall (10 each) for center fielders and Adam Jones received only one ninth place vote.

Interestingly, there is one area where Hunter and Jones are the absolute best in baseball.  And an important area it is, as it is the most valuable defensive play a player can make: making home-run saving catches.  Torii Hunter has the most in baseball over the last three years with five.  Adam Jones had the most this past season with four.  Based on our methods, Hunter saved eight runs over the three years on these plays and Jones saved six in 2009.

That’s impressive.  It’s an important part of the defensive profile of an outfielder, but it is only a part. We also measure two other areas of defense for outfielders, their ability to cover ground and the strength/accuracy of their throwing arm.

Let’s look at their throwing arms first.  Based on our methods, Torii Hunter is nearly the exact definition of average.  Over the last three years he did not hurt or help his team and had exactly zero defensive runs saved, based on how many runners he threw out and how many runners advanced extra bases on plays to center field.  In 2009, Hunter had one defensive run saved. But Adam Jones is a different story. This is another area where he excelled.  Jones saved 12 runs with his arm and was the best in all of baseball in 2009.  Again.  The best outfielder in all of baseball at making home run saving catches and the best outfield throwing arm.  No wonder he won a Gold Glove.  But should he have?

Let’s look at the final area, covering ground in center field. The method we use is the Plus/Minus System.  We measure plays made compared to what an average center fielder would make on the balls hit to each player.  Once again, Hunter is the definition of average.  Over the last three years he saved zero runs defensively covering ground in center field.  His +4 runs saved mark in 2009 was better than the previous two years.  Hunter didn’t make any more plays than the average center fielder, but he performed better on plays that were hit deep into center field.  He saved 17 bases on deeply hit balls, while he cost his team 9 bases on shallow and medium hit balls, for an overall enhanced plus/minus of +8, ranking him 12th in baseball.

Covering ground in center field is not Adam Jones’ forte.  The 11 runs he cost his team defensively in center field was the second worst in the American League (Vernon Wells was the worst in baseball with -17). He was the opposite of Hunter.  He was okay on shallow hit balls with two bases saved (+2), but he was very poor on medium hit balls (-7) and atrocious on deeply hit balls (-16).  That gives him an overall enhanced plus/minus of -20.

Should Adam Jones, being the best in baseball in two areas on nearly the worst in a third, win a Gold Glove? Let’s compare him and Torii Hunter to the three AL players that the Fielding Bible Award panelists like.  Overall, while they came at it from totally different directions, Hunter and Jones had the same number of defensive runs saved in 2009, seven.  That tied them for 11th among all center fielders.  The Fielding Bible panel would have given the AL Gold Glove Awards to Franklin Gutierrez (31 runs saved), Carl Crawford (24) and Ichiro Suzuki (11 runs saved).  Here are their totals by defensive category! :

I think it is fair to speculate that Gold Glove voters are influenced by defensive plays that look great.  The home-saving catch and, to a lesser extent, the great throw to nab a runner.  But there’s more to defense than that.  It’s like saying the league MVP should be the guy who leads the league in grand slam homers.  It’s a big deal to hit grand slam homers (or to make home runs saving catches), but it doesn’t show the whole picture.

Runs Saved leaderboards can be found in the Bill James Handbook 2010.

“Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week®, www.statoftheweek.com.”

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Stat of the Week: Fielding Bible Awards

THE 2009 FIELDING BIBLE AWARDS have been officially announced after one of the closest races in the history of the award centered around the keystone sack. Second basemen Aaron Hill, Dustin Pedroia and Chase Utley finished with 76, 76 and 73 points respectively, forcing a tie-breaking procedure that awarded Hill his second Fielding Bible Award.

One important distinction that differentiates THE FIELDING BIBLE AWARDS from most other baseball awards, such as the Gold Gloves, is that there is only one winner at each position, instead of separate winners for each league. This distinction came into play this year as Jack Wilson, who split his time between Pittsburgh in the National League and Seattle in the American League, won the Fielding Bible Award at shortstop.

Joining Hill as repeat winners are Albert Pujols (four wins in the four years of the award), Carl Crawford (his third), Yadier Molina (his third), Ichiro Suzuki (two) and Franklin Gutierrez (his second, this one for center field after claiming last year’s right field award). First-time winners are Mark Buehrle, Jack Wilson and Ryan Zimmerman.

A panel of ten analysts, listed below—including Peter Gammons, Bill James, Joe Posnanski, and me—examined the 2009 seasons of every defensive player in Major League Baseball and then used the same voting technique as the Major League Baseball MVP voting. First place votes received 10 points, second place 9 points, third place 8 points, etc. A perfect score was 100.

Here are the results of THE 2009 FIELDING BIBLE AWARDS. A complete record of the voting can be found in The Bill James Handbook 2010.

FIRST BASE—ALBERT PUJOLS, ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (95 POINTS)
Four Fielding Bible Awards in four years. What’s left to say?

SECOND BASE—AARON HILL, TORONTO BLUE JAYS (76)
Hill wins the tie-breaker on the strength of four first-place votes, as opposed to only one for runner-up Dustin Pedroia.

THIRD BASE—RYAN ZIMMERMAN, WASHINGTON NATIONALS (84)
Third base is a strong, deep defensive position in baseball right now, but Zimmerman has set himself apart by becoming the leader in Defensive Runs Saved over the last three years.

SHORTSTOP—JACK WILSON, PITTSBURGH PIRATES/SEATTLE MARINERS (86) Even though he split time between leagues, Wilson was the best shorstop in baseball this year, leading all shorstops in Runs Saved by a wide margin (27 compared to Brendan Ryan’s 19).

LEFT FIELD—CARL CRAWFORD, TAMPA BAY RAYS (99)
No player has ever won with a perfect record (10 first-place votes from 10 panelists), but Crawford came as close as possible, garnering nine out of ten possible first-place votes. His 99 total points is an all-time record.

CENTER FIELD—FRANKLIN GUTIERREZ, SEATTLE MARINERS (97)
Winner of the 2008 Fielding Bible Award for right field, Gutierrez moved over to center field in 2009. His 31 Runs Saved were tied with Chone Figgins for the most in baseball.

RIGHT FIELD—ICHIRO SUZUKI, SEATTLE MARINERS (93)
Hunter Pence gave Ichiro a run for his money, but Ichiro finished with 93 points to Pence’s 84. This is Ichiro’s second Fielding Bible Award.

CATCHER—YADIER MOLINA, ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (96)
Everyone knows about Molina’s incredible throwing arm (well, maybe not the eight guys he picked off this year), but Molina was also the third-best bad-pitch-blocking catcher in baseball behind Carlos Ruiz and Jason Varitek.

PITCHER—MARK BUEHRLE, CHICAGO WHITE SOX (86)
Buerhle has defensive chops, but his ability to hold runners is legendary. In the last four years he’s allowed a total of 15 stolen bases, picked off 14 baserunners, and thrown over to first—only to have the runner break for second and be thrown out—16 times.

The Panel

1. Bill James is a baseball writer and analyst and the Senior Baseball Operations Advisor for the Boston Red Sox;
2. The BIS Video Scouts at Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) study every game of the season, multiple times, charting a huge list of valuable game details;
3. The man who created Strat-O-Matic Baseball—Hal Richman;
4. Named the best sports columnist in America by the AP Sports Editors, Joe Posnanski is a Senior Writer at Sports Illustrated and occasional columnist for the Kansas City Star;
5. For over twenty years, BIS owner John Dewan has collected, published and analyzed in-depth baseball statistics and is the author of The Fielding Bible and The Fielding Bible—Volume II;
6. ! Mat Olkin is a sabermetrics consultant to major league teams;
7. Hall-of-Famer Peter Gammons serves as a studio analyst on ESPN’s Baseball Tonight and Baseball Today;
8. Rob Neyer writes about baseball for ESPN.com and appears regularly on ESPN radio and ESPNews;
9. Todd Radcliffe is Lead Video Scout at Baseball Info Solutions;
10. The Tom Tango Fan Poll represents the results of a poll taken at the website, Tango on Baseball (www.tangotiger.net);
The three tie-breakers are Steve Moyer, president of BIS, Dan Casey, veteran Video Scout at BIS, and Dave Studenmund, one of the owners of www.hardballtimes.com and the editor of The Hardball Times Baseball Annual.

Complete results and voting on THE 2009 FIELDING BIBLE AWARDS are presented in The Bill James Handbook 2010, published on or before November 1 every year. For more information on The Fielding Bible Awards visit www.fieldingbible.com.

“Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week®, www.statoftheweek.com.”

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