Stat of the Week

A hot start can make a big difference in how players are perceived for the rest of the season. However, many times these same stretches occur in the middle of the season and may go unnoticed. A miniscule season ERA or a batting average above .400 for a couple of months at the start of the season makes fans take notice. Ubaldo Jimenez had a red-hot first two months, and thanks to a flashy 10-1 record and a 0.78 ERA through the end of May, he earned the start for Charlie Manuel’s NL All- Stars. However, if Jimenez’s hot streak had come in June and July rather than April and May, would he getting the same amount of Cy Young talk? Here are the best pitchers from the first two months of the season, based on allowing opposing hitters the lowest OPS. (We’ll abbreviate Opponent On-base percentage Plus Slugging percentage as OOPS)

Now, let’s look at the best pitchers in the last two months:

Regular baseball fans know about many or most of the players on the first list. Players like Jimenez, Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, and Phil Hughes got off to great starts, earning them attention. These great starts stick in your mind. It’s human nature. But maybe the more interesting names are the guys on the second list. Did you know that over the last two months, Mat Latos and Trevor Cahill are the top two pitchers in the league in opponent OPS? Did you know Gavin Floyd had the second best ERA over June and July, behind only Josh Johnson? In the last couple of months all of these pitchers have pitched at an exceptional level, just like the guys who did the same in the first two months of the season. But there’s no question that it’s still the players on the first list that are getting the most attention.

“Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week™, www.statoftheweek.com.”

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Who are the Top Defenders in 2010?

Two and a half months into the season, it is a good time to look and see who have been our best defensive players of the year. Let’s take a look at our overall leaders, in terms of Defensive Runs Saved.

Ben Zobrist is no surprise here, as he finished near the top of the league last year with 31 runs saved. What’s impressive about Zobrist is that he has accumulated his runs saved at numerous positions, having spent time at first base, second base, and all three outfield spots.

Yunel Escobar has always been one of the best defenders at shortstop, with runs saved totals the last two years of 12 and 13. Always strong on plays to his left, Escobar is now making some of those plays to his right. He has already eclipsed his previous career high in Defensive Runs Saved.

Overshadowed a bit by his hot start with the bat, Austin Jackson has been the best defensive outfielder in baseball. Jackson excels especially on deep balls, as he rates a +14 in Enhanced Plus/Minus so far this year. This young star has a bright future ahead of him.

Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week™, www.statoftheweek.com.

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Rare and Near Perfection – What are the Odds?

Prior to this season, in 134 seasons of Major League Baseball dating back to 1876, only 18 perfect games had been thrown. That’s one every seven or eight seasons. This year, we’ve had three in less than a month (though only two count).

Dallas Braden was on top of the pitching world with his perfect game on May 9. Not to be outdone, Roy Halladay matched his feat going 27-up, 27-down on May 29. Two days ago, on June 2nd, Armando Galarraga retired the first 26 batters followed by the umpire gaffe on the final play to deny him the official perfecto.

What are the odds of so many perfect games in such a short period of time?

With the advent of the 162-game schedule and gradual expansion from 16 to 30 teams, there is a greater chance of a perfect game happening in the modern era than there was previously; however, the odds still remain quite low.

The odds that a perfect game occurs in a season: 4-to-1

For two or three perfect games, the odds start getting quite remote:

The odds that there are two perfect games in a season: 43-to-1
The odds that there are three perfect games in a season: 580-to-1

But we had all two (three?) in a month. The odds on three perfect games in a month are astronomical at 16,033-to-1. Maybe Jim Joyce was thinking this subconsciously when he made the bogus safe call in Galarraga’s game.

The odds that there are two perfect games in a month during a season: 212-to-1
The odds that there are three perfect games in a month during a season: 16,033-to-1

You’ve seen history, folks.

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Flat Bat Award 2009

Each year we give the Flat Bat Award to baseball’s best bunter. During the 2008 season, Carlos Gomez had 30 bunt hits. We awarded him with the 2008 Flat Bat Award as he unseated the previous champ, three-time Flat Bat winner Willy Taveras. We are a little late with the 2009 award, but it’s better late than never. Below is the information we used to determine the 2009 winner. We’ll also take a look at the 2010 leaders.

We start by looking at the best bunters in sacrifice situations. Here are the best sacrifice bunters in baseball for 2009, listed in order of most sacrifices:

We then look at the best performances when bunting for a hit, listed in order of most bunt hits in 2009. As you can see, the most successful bunters have a very high average when bunting for a hit. Of the 31 players who had at least 5 bunt base hits in 2009, their combined average on bunts was .563!

And now for the 2009 Flat Bat Award: Erick Aybar, shortstop of the Los Angeles Angels, led the league with 18 bunt hits while posting a stellar .621 average when bunting for a hit. He also successfully laid down 12 sacrifice bunts in 13 sacrifice bunt attempts. He is the 2009 Flat Bat Award Winner. Congratulations, Erick Aybar!

Taking a look at 2010 so far, we can see who has the early lead in bunt hits.

The frontrunner for the Flat Bat award is last year’s winner, Erick Aybar. Scott Podsednik, Elvis Andrus, Michael Bourn, and Ben Zobrist are on the board, but the race is still wide open to become the 2010 Flat Bat Award Winner.

Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week™, www.statoftheweek.com

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Who is Baseball’s Best Player?

No question: Albert Pujols. He is baseball’s best hitter. Has been for years. And he is baseball’s best defender at his position. He is the only four-time recipient of the Fielding Bible Award. You can’t get much better than that.

Or can you?

I submit, for your consideration, that baseball’s best player right now is Chase Utley. Let’s compare Pujols and Utley year by year, going back to 2005, Utley’s first full season. By that point, Prince Albert had already established himself as baseball’s best, but let’s see what happens from that point forward.

In 2005, Albert Pujols won his first MVP award. He hit .330 with 41 home runs and 117 RBI. He led the league in Runs Created with 139. Chase Utley was no slouch, but he was no Pujols either. He hit .291 with 28 dingers and 105 RBI. He had 102 Runs Created.

What about baserunning and defense? In The Fielding Bible—Volume II we developed a method to compare players so that we include their baserunning and defense as part of the equation. It’s called Total Runs. It uses a slightly different definition of Runs Created, a version that eliminates the clutch hitting component. In our calculations we are assuming that there is no such thing as clutch defense and clutch baserunning. Eliminating clutch hitting for Runs Created puts everything on the same basis. Pujols’ Runs Created changes to 142 and Utley to 108.

As a baserunner, Pujols is pretty good. In 2005 he saved his team an estimated two runs on the basepaths. As we’ll see as we go through this, Chase Utley has been, arguably, the best baserunner in all of baseball. In 2005, he saved three runs on the basepaths, only one run better than Pujols.

Defense is where Utley catches Pujols. There are two elements. 1) How much better than average is the player at his position, and 2) How much more important is second base defensively than first base?

Pujols had a great year defensively at first base in 2005 with 9 Runs Saved. That means he saved 9 more runs than an average defender at first base. That was the fourth best first-base total in all of baseball. But Utley was even better. He saved an estimated 18 runs defensively for the Phillies at second base, compared to an average second base defender.

To come up with the relative importance of each defensive position, Bill James developed a formula to estimate the run value of each position defensively. It’s called a Positional Adjustment. Based on the innings each player played at their respective positions (including some innings at first base for Utley), Pujols gets 12 runs in 2005 and Utley gets 27. In essence, this adjustment is saying that Utley was worth 15 more runs defensively than Pujols in 2005 because he played a more important defensive position.

In total, with the defensive and baserunning adjustments, Utley almost caught Pujols, but Albert beat Chase by seven runs, 165 to 159. Two other players beat them overall, Derrek Lee and Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod won the AL MVP that year and led the league in home runs, slugging percentage and OPS. You can make a good case for D-Lee for NL MVP over Pujols. He finished third in voting but led the league in batting average, hits, doubles, total bases, slugging percentage and OPS. Here are the top four players in Total Runs in 2005:

In 2006, Pujols had an even better year than 2005 hitting .331-49-137, but finished second in MVP voting to Utley’s teammate, Ryan Howard. Utley bettered his 2005 as well with .309-32-102. When adding all the components, Utley actually beats out Albert Pujols for the number one spot in baseball. Teammates Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins are tied for sixth. Here are the 2006 Total Runs leaders:

By his own standards, 2007 was an off year for Pujols. Utley’s home run total is down, but everything else is up and he has his best year. Pujols goes .327-32-103 and Utley is .332-22-103. Pujols has a huge year defensively with 29 runs saved and finishes fifth in total runs in baseball while Utley is seventh:

In 2008, Albert won his second MVP award with .357-37-116. Utley had another great year with .292-33-104. Offensively, Chase pales by comparison but he had such an incredible defensive year, saving 34 runs, that he overtakes Pujols. Utley and Pujols finish one-two in Total Runs:

In 2009, Pujols wins his third MVP with a .327-47-135 season. Utley continues his steady performance with .282-31-93. And he’s 23-for-23 in stolen bases, which, by the way, is included in Runs Created, not Baserunning Runs. Pujols and Utley finish one and two again in Total Runs, this time with Pujols on top:

So far in 2010, Pujols is doing well hitting .320 with seven home runs and 25 RBI. But that’s actually a bit down from his previous norms and he is tied for 14th in baseball with 33 Total Runs. Utley’s standard line of .302-8-18 doesn’t look that impressive but he currently has his career highest on-base and slugging percentages at .434 and .578. With his usual stellar defense, Utley leads all of baseball in Total Runs once again:

Summarizing the past five-plus seasons, we have Utley with 907 Total Runs and Pujols with 878. And that’s why I submit that Utley is currently baseball’s best. (By the way, over that time span, no one else is close; Jimmy Rollins is a distant third with 742 Total Runs).

Here are summary charts for Utley and Pujols:

Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week™, www.statoftheweek.com

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A Couple of Alternatives to ERA

For years and years and years, and to this day, the standard stats to quote when talking about a player are home runs, RBI and batting average for hitters, and wins, losses and ERA for pitchers. Here are a couple of examples. From MLB.com’s Player of the Month section where Carlos Lee was named NL Player of the Month last September, “Overall this season, Lee batted. 306 with 35 home runs and a career-high 111 RBIs.” From today’s Chicago Tribune, “With his victory Sunday, John Danks is 7-2 with a 1.73 earned-run average in 11 April starts.”

More and more, however, we are starting to see usage of OPS (On-base plus Slugging). From ESPN.com today: “David Ortiz (.549 OPS this season) reportedly wants to play “2 or 3″ more season in the big leagues.” Hmm, not with that OPS. The trend toward using OPS is excellent. As we all know by now, OPS is a much better stat than batting average to understand a hitter’s overall effectiveness, and all that’s left is for fans and media to gain that frame of reference that we all know about batting average (.300 is good. 200 is horrible). For OPS, a corresponding frame of reference might be .900 is good, .600 is horrible. Looking at this, a quick rule of thumb might be “Divide by three”. If you take a guy’s OPS, divide it by three, and it looks like a good batting average, it’s a good OPS.

Over on the pitching side, by comparison, ERA is a much better indicator of effectiveness for pitchers than batting average ever was for hitters. The need for an alternative hasn’t been as great. Nevertheless, there are a couple of alternatives, favorites of mine, that I think are better that I’d like to share with you.

One is Opposing OPS. I find it very surprising how infrequently this is used. If it’s a good stat for hitters, and there’s no reason it shouldn’t be a good stat for pitchers. Maybe people simply don’t like the acronym that falls out of this one (OOPS). However, in terms of overall performance, it is a better indicator than ERA. Let’s look at this year’s top five ERA leaders and top five OOPS leaders

ERA is subject to a lot of variables that make it a much more volatile statistic. When the starter leaves the game with men on base, his ERA is in the hands of the relief pitcher. Not so with OOPS. ERA is subject to random timing of when hits take place. If a pitcher happens to give up a bloop single with a couple of men in scoring position, that hurts his ERA big time while having a much smaller effect on his OOPS. In the long run and especially in the short run, OOPS is a much better indicator of pitcher effectiveness than ERA.

One other pitcher stat I’d like to point out is Pitcher Runs Created. This was invented by David Gassko over at the Hardball Times (www.hardballtimes.com) a couple of years ago. This is a stat meant to correspond with Bill James’ Runs Created for hitters. Here are the Pitcher Runs Created leaders for the current season, and for 2009. I like this stat as well. In fact, Pitching Runs Created predicted both Cy Young Award winners in 2009, 2008, and 2007. Neither ERA nor OOPS got more than one right each year.

“Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week™, www.statoftheweek.com.”

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Which players are poised for a breakout based on their Spring Training statistics?

This is our sixth annual list of possible breakout players based on Spring Training statistics. We researched the value of Spring Training stats a few years back and it was quite revealing. For the most part, we agree with the common perception that they don’t have value. A bad spring training means nothing. An average spring training tells us nothing. Nevertheless, we did find that when a player has an exceptional spring, it does suggest a better than 60% chance they will take their game up a notch. It applies to teams as well.

We define “exceptional spring” as a positive difference between a hitter’s spring training slugging percentage and their lifetime slugging percentage of 200 points or more.

We analyzed hitters with both a minimum of 200 career regular season at bats and with a minimum of 40 spring training at bats (through spring training games of Tuesday, March 30) and found the following 18 players.

Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week™, www.statoftheweek.com.

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Can the Mariners top 2009?

Most everyone knows by now that the Mariners are the best defensive team in baseball, but by how much? At Baseball Info Solutions, we’ve recently projected Defensive Runs Saved (as introduced in The Fielding Bible – Volume II) for the 2010 season. We evaluated each player’s defensive performance over the past three years and prorated their performance based on the number of innings each is expected to play this year. We expect Seattle to nearly match their 110 Runs Saved from 2009 and dwarf the second-best Phillies, 2008’s best defensive team.

The Red Sox will be the most improved team, going from -52 Runs Saved in 2009 to a projection of 35 Runs Saved in 2010 thanks to their offseason acquisitions.

Franklin Gutierrez led baseball with 32 Runs Saved in center field in 2009, though new Mariners teammates Chone Figgins (31 Runs Saved) and Jack Wilson (27 Runs Saved) finished close behind. We project Gutierrez to retain his crown, but Wilson and 2008 champion Chase Utley should give him a run for his money.

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USA on Track (and on Snow)

With six days left, Canada has fallen too far behind. Before the Olympics started it looked like they had a good shot at winning the medal race. But the United States has risen to the occasion and is in the lead, with Germany coming on strong the last couple of days. Vancouver’s proximity to the United States gives the US an element of the home field advantage as well. Here is the medal situation as of this morning:

Nevertheless, based on the remaining events, we still predict that Canada will come on strong. In fact, we predict them to win the most medals in the remaining six days (15, compared to 9 for USA and 7 for Germany). Our projected final totals at this point are:

While we fell short on our original projection for Canada, our original United States projection (10 golds and 33 total medals) is still right on the button.

“Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week™, www.statoftheweek.com.”

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The Missing Ingredient of Pitcher Defense

Mark Buehrle won both the Gold Glove and Fielding Bible Award last season, and justifiably so. The White Sox southpaw saved a league-leading seven runs by fielding his position, according to the Plus/Minus System.

However, Buehrle also excelled in the often-overlooked part of pitcher defense: controlling the running game. Buehrle only allowed four stolen bases in 213 innings, but he didn’t get any help from his catchers. Buehrle caught four runners stealing without a throw to the plate, and picked off four additional runners, tops in the league. All said, this adds up to four Runs Saved for the holding runenrs component:

Over the past seven seasons, Buehrle has led the league four times and has totaled a remarkable 27 Stolen Base Runs Saved by controlling the running game.

Carl Pavano is the other extreme. Pavano has rated below average in six out of the past seven seasons costing his teams an estimated ten runs (-10 Runs Saved); the only thing that kept Pavano from rating below average in 2006 was an injury which forced him to miss the entire year. AL Central baserunners were thrilled to see Pavano re-sign with Minnesota this offseason. The worst pitcher at holding runners over the last seven seasons was Tim Wakefield with -10 Runs Saved.

“Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week™, www.statoftheweek.com.”

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Stat of the Week: The Super Bowl Prediction System

All the betting lines favor the Colts right now by five or six points, but in my book it’s a toss-up. If I were a betting man, I’d take the Saints and the points. But if you do that, don’t blame me if you lose. It’s that close.

In my Super Bowl prediction system there are 12 different indicators, each one taken by itself predicts the Super Bowl winner 56% to 69% of the time. Taken collectively, the indicators have an even better track record. The system favors the team that wins the most indicators and it has predicted 15 of the last 19 Super Bowl winners. This year the prediction system picks the New Orleans Saints to win a Super Bowl in their first appearance in history.

However…

The margin is the slimmest of margins. The system has the Saints winning 7 of the 12 indicators. That goes against the grain given that the Indianapolis Colts are favored in Las Vegas. I like that. The system has a strong track record going against the line. But the prediction system has not performed well when a team wins less than eight of the indicators. Going back 19 years to 1990, the system is only 3-2 on games with less than eight indicators going to the favored team. Going back all-time, the system is 6-7 with less than eight indicators.

Plus, if we had gone to the tiebreaker (when six indicators go to each team), the tiebreaker would favor the Colts. The tiebreaker gives the nod to the team with previous Super Bowl experience. In 17 Super Bowls where one team has been there and the other hasn’t, the experienced team has won 13 times.

For record keeping, if the Saints win, the system will also notch a victory. If the Colts win, the system loses. But I learned my lesson two years ago when the system favored the Patriots with 7 of the 12 indicators and the Giants won. I am calling it a toss-up.

Each indicator is shown here. Interestingly, while the system favors the Saints overall, the three best indicators (the bottom three) each favor the Colts.

There are five defensive indicators, four offensive ones, and three based on overall stats. The strongest indicators overall are the defensive ones.

“Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week™, www.statoftheweek.com.”

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