VFTB

Shame on me…

Why we need to do something…maybe even big:

The old saying goes “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me” though President Bush butchered it when he tried to use it. The gist being that when something catches you off guard twice then you have to look at yourself to blame. The sad end to the Cubs 2008 season has left people scratching their heads and even questioning their allegiances. Two years in a row of a quick and quiet exit. Two years in a row of futility, silent bats, and ineffective pitching. Last year was understandable with the Cubs fighting their way into the playoffs only to travel to Arizona and face Brandon Webb. This year was supposed to be different. The best team in the National League wins home field advantage where they have been ultra dominant only to go away really bad and really fast. It doesn’t make sense. But it is the second time and so you must consider a different road.

I know it is difficult to consider a different road because multiple winning seasons and playoff bound teams in a row is a nice situation. It is certainly much different than we have been accustomed to over our lifetimes. Yet the goal is winning championships and the last two years we haven’t been close. We can analyze everything that happened and why Lou did what he did and why the players didn’t seem to show up and why the Dodgers might have been the better team at that time but this gets us nowhere really. The thing is that we didn’t even contend, we didn’t battle, we barely showed up. The most competitive thing we did the entire month was bust up some plumbing in Dodgers Stadium after losing the series. We did beat ourselves with walks and errors but even without those we probably still lose three straight because we couldn’t hit. The series showed some fatal flaws that must be addressed or we will continue this cycle.

To make things clear I believe that the Cubs will still make the playoffs next year even as constituted. They will make moves but a rotation of Zambrano, Lilly, Harden, Marquis, and Marshall probably goes to the playoffs. The defense and bats remain pretty much the same with the addition of Pie in Center. The bullpen would move Carlos Marmol to closer and would be serviceable. I think as constituted the Cubs would still win the Central because I doubt that the Brewers will resign Sabathia and still have no bullpen or defense. The Cardinals and Astros are OK but fading for now. The Reds are a step away. The Pirates are the Pirates. Of course we will not stay as constituted but my point is that they would still win the division. However, the goal is not just to win the division. Which is why we must do something because winning the division and being easily bounced from the first round is not going to cut it.

Why it will be tough:

The Cubs contract numbers are frightening from a business sense and they make you wonder if they will even be able to afford to field a 25 man roster next year. Jim Hendry built the team with back loaded contracts believing the team would win a World Series and that the team would have a new owner to deal with the payroll…wrong and wrong. So the contracts are beginning to blossom into a nightmarish garden of trouble for the future. Look at these numbers:

• Carlos Zambrano will make 2.75 million more in 2009
• Aramis Ramirez will make 1.65 million more
• Alfonso Soriano will make 3 million more
• Ted Lilly will make 5 million more
• Kosuke will make 5.5 million more
• Jason Marquis will make 3.5 million more
• Rich Harden will make 2.5 million more

This is an additional 24 million dollars on the payroll for next year. This does not include new contracts for Ryan Dempster and potentially Kerry Wood.

So the Cubs will consider trading some guys but that will not be easy either. The Cubs have given no trade clauses or no trade protection to Carlos Zambrano, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano (Whose contract is ridiculous…I think Jim Hendry also promised him a piece of Lake Michigan), Derrek Lee, Ted Lilly, and Kosuke.

This means that any off season plan will be tricky and take the work of a magician. This leaves the Cubs in a really tough place to try to win a World Series.

What should we do?

If you’re thinking trade you might want to begin by looking at one of the big 3 bats. Soriano and Ramirez did not show up in the playoffs again. While Derrek Lee had very good numbers in the playoffs his numbers on the year were down slightly and he plays in one of the most wealthy offensive positions in baseball. The Cubs need a powerful left handed bat and Lee plays at the most likely position to find that, although there are no guarantees that you can. I think you need to at least kick the tires on trading one of these three. Ideally, it would be Soriano but trading that contract will be almost impossible. It will be hard to trade any of them with the no trade clauses but you start here. Two of the three didn’t perform and the most money will be gained here. They are stars who would demand a sizeable return…if anyone would be interested.

The trouble with Sori

As has been said in the past few days a big deal was made about Alfonso Soriano being a mistake hitter. He pounds the mistakes other pitchers make and hits well against the other team’s third, fourth, and fifth in the rotation. The thing is I saw mistakes that were thrown to him in the Dodger’s series and he didn’t hit those either. He has been on really good teams and not one has won the World Series. His fault? Maybe not. But it can’t be completely unrelated either. When he played with the Yankees, Joe Torre wound up dropping him in the order for the playoffs due to lack of production. This is not a coincidence.

His playoff numbers are poor and maybe abysmal. They are based on a large sample size and are not fluke. 179 playoff at bats, only 7 extra base hits, only 14 runs scored from a guy who was leading off most of the time, 18 rbi, .213 batting average, .263 obp, .299 slugging. Really bad numbers.

It is amazing because no one has taken the team on their back the way Soriano has at times the last two years. But he has proven an inability to perform in the playoffs. You can’t have a lead off hitter who goes one for the playoffs every year. I am finally ready to say that Alfonso Soriano cannot lead off if the Cubs want to go to the World Series. This means that he cannot lead off during the year either. I think ideally the Cubs would love for someone to take Soriano from them. That probably won’t happen. Which means their only other option is to drop him in the order and it has already been reported that this decision had been made.

At the top

One interesting free agent of note is Rafael Furcal whom Jim Hendry wooed a few years back only to be jilted when he went to the Dodgers. He is a lead off or number two hitter who can get on base and can hit from the left side. He plays one of the few positions that can easily be replaced on this team. While I like Ryan Theriot I still wonder if he has the stuff to be more than a nice gritty guy. Adding Furcal would help you at the top of the order and add a consistent bat that can hit from the left side. Furcal had a .459 obp this year. With this addition you could drop Soriano and bring Lee, Fukudome, or DeRosa to number two. OR…

Another spot that you could easily switch up is second base. This brings up the potential of the rumored Brian Roberts deal again. If you were pursuing Roberts in this scenario you would have Theriot, Cedeno, Fontenot, and all of your other pitching and hitting prospects at your disposal to try to get him. While other teams will go after Roberts as well it remains to be seen if the Cubs have the horses to win that race.

This is a realistic scenario. You have to pay for Furcal but you have the money. You have to trade for Roberts but you have the guys to do it. This is not convincing guys to forego their no trade. This is not adding multi million dollar players who are not available or won’t come. This scenario could change everything. Imagine Roberts and/or Furcal at the top of the order in front of Lee, Ramirez, Soto, and Soriano.

Outfield

Assuming that Soriano will be here you have question marks at the other spots. I think a first step is re-signing Reed Johnson. He is a platoon guy who can play all three outfield positions when needed. I would think you would have Pie on the roster again. If you do have Roberts at 2B you can then use DeRosa in right field if Kosuke does not work. If Kosuke is hitting he could be an option in CF- nobody questions his defensive ability. You would have Soriano, Johnson/Pie in CF, DeRosa/Fukudome in RF. This is not saying that DeRosa and Fukudome will platoon.

Offensive Roster

I think a reasonable (and potential World Series winning) roster on offense would be:

• Geovany Soto
• Henry Blanco
• Derrek Lee
• Micah Hoffpauir
• Brian Roberts
• Rafael Furcal
• Aramis Ramirez
• Alfonso Soriano
• Reed Johnson
• Kosuke Fukudome
• Mark DeRosa
• Either Felix Pie, Mike Fontenot, or Ronnie Cedeno

We know that DeRosa can play many positions and give you depth in many places so he can rotate out of the outfield as needed.

Pitching staff

You would start with the contracts of Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood. I would attempt to re-sign both guys depending on what they were asking. I think Dempster is more vital than Wood but if you don’t re-sign Wood you will need another quality right handed arm in the bullpen. Jeff Samardzija looked good at times and looked spotty at other times. He is an unproven commodity. Chad Gaudin should be more effective next year as he should be recovered from injury by then. The Cubs need another left hander. Sean Marshall has been a valuable resource because he could spot start but he might be a trade focus and isn’t really a bullpen guy anyway. The Cubs need to get a strong lefty out of the pen.

As of now I have only mentioned one free agent pursuit (aside from a bullpen arm or two). But I think there is another realistic possibility out there. I would like to see the Cubs pursue Ben Sheets. I know he is injury prone, but when he is good he is an ace. You will be able to get him much cheaper than other guys and if he stays healthy he is a stud. The good thing about this is that he would be coming in as a number five. With Harden and Sheets people might say that is like counting on Wood and Prior. It is completely different. Wood and Prior were counted on as one and two. Harden and Sheets would be four and five. Imagine a rotation of Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, Harden, and Sheets. What do you do with Marquis? Would it really matter?

I think these thoughts are somewhat possible and would answer a lot of questions. Perhaps in this scenario we would not have to find out what “Fool me thrice” would bring.

Posted in General | 14 Comments »

Fool me once…

I will be writing a longer post about off season plans for next year in about an hour. However, I want to throw out a few questions  to get things started this morning. Is this team still, even with the potential losses of Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood and others, the best team by far in the National League Central? Which of the other teams can compete? As you look at things are the Astros, Brewers, Cardinals, and Reds on the way up, down, or stagnant? And what are we?

Posted in General | 7 Comments »

Let It Roll or Matt’s Crazy Off Season Plan

The Chicago Tribune had a poll up Sunday asking which Cubs collapse broke your heart the most. Honestly, I’d have to rank it, and this is only in my lifetime, the 2003 team, the 1984 team, and then this 2008 team. After the 2003 meltdown, I was literally numb for about two weeks. Mountain Dew wasn’t as sweet, Snickers bars weren’t as nougaty, and Old Style still tasted like crap. I believe when, or should I say if, the Cubs win the whole shabang, Old Style will be as fine as a vintage champagne. Yeah, who am I kidding. I didn’t even watch Game 3 on Saturday evening. I was done, the Cubs were done, and to listen to Dick Stockton one more evening would of driven me to the heights of insanity. I had lost my heart in Cubs baseball, all in a matter of four days.

 When Joe asked about each of us doing a “what do they do for next year” post, I actually had no ideas. On paper, and for most of the season, I saw nothing glaringly wrong with the team as it was. They needed a centerfielder, Jim Hendry grabbed Reed Johnson, and later Jim Edmonds. A starter to help fend off the Brewers, he traded for Rich Harden. What else could you ask for? Maybe a little bullpen help, but most of the time they were fine. Do you really make a major change with a team that just won back to back NL Central titles? I don’t think so, much to the chagrin of all some of you that want major changes. My bigger gripe about the team’s failure in the post season. Management. Why in god’s name did Lou reinsert Kosuke Fukudome into the lineup? Better yet, why did he bat him second? Why would you mess with a lineup that you’ve stuck with almost the whole year, and change it for the biggest series of the year? Blame the offense all you want, I blame Lou just as much. He tinkered when it wasn’t necessary.

Here’s my realistic ideas:

• Re-sign Reed Johnson. Platoon him with Pie in centerfield.
• Make Mark DeRosa your everyday right fielder. Put Mike Fontenot in as your second baseman. You’ll get two good bats in the lineup, and a lefty which is sorely needed in the right handed heavy Cubs lineup. You lose some defense in right, but after this year, they need to reward Mark with an everyday position, not as a super sub. If necessary, go sign a Felipe Lopez, utility type player to fill the super sub role.
• Kosuke Fukudome heads to Iowa to learn American styled hitting and pitching. The Mets did it with Kaz Matsui, maybe it’s Kosuke’s time. He’s in Lou’s doghouse as it is, I don’t see this ending well, any way you slice it.
• Micah Hoffpauir becomes the pinch hitter. He’s no worse defensively than Ward. And cheaper.
• Re-sign Dempster and Wood. With the NLDS loss, they may take a hit in salary to see if they can get the job done, like they should have this year.
• Sign Jeremy Affledt to strenghten up the middle relief, and give Lou another lefty in the pen. 
• Resign Hank White. He’s a great mentor to Geo, and is one of the few people that can probably keep Zambrano under control.

And of course, some pie in the sky ideas:

• Don’t resign Dempster. Make a serious run at CC Sabathia. Heck, sign Dempster, then go get Sabathia. Get us a dominating scary #1 pitcher.
• Go balls out, and sign Manny Ramirez. Move Soriano to right field. Again, Fukudome gets to check out the cornfields of Iowa for awhile.
• Trade for Robinson Cano.  The Yankees are looking for pitching and a centerfielder. We seem to have both of those. If you trade Pie, you resign Edmonds. I think a full Spring Training will benefit him. He became a clubhouse leader, from what I’ve been told, the day he arrived.

I’ll be honest. I’d be very happy to see the same team next year, with a tweak or two. Hendry’s close, and I think this team is going to be hungry next year. Really hungry. Not to mention, the free agent crop is below average, and most of them are past their twilight years. I’m not sure it’d be worth the risk. Of course, I see a nice young power pitching right hander is available. Mark Prior anyone?

Tags: Carlos Zambrano, CC Sabathia, Jim Edmonds, Mark DeRosa, Reed Johnson, Robinson Cano, Ryan Dempster
Posted in General | 37 Comments »

Morning Cuppa Joe: Carlos Marmol Injured

Carlos Marmol was injured in a car accident in the Dominican Republic (Source) - “Out of precaution they did different studies on my body, and I don’t have any kind of serious injury” Do you think that involved any kind of test on his shoulder after Lou pitched his arm off? I’m curious to see what route the Cubs are going to go this off-season with the Marmol and Wood situation. Marmol will be here and if Wood returns, you have to think the roles will remain the same. If Wood moves on, Marmol would step into the closer’s role, but is he ready?

The Reds have paved the way for the Cubs to bring back Corey Patterson (Source) - Obviously you know I’m kidding when I say that, but I found it funny that amid all the rumors that Patterson was getting his freak on with Dusty’s daughter, the Reds have decided not to bring back the one time prized prospect in the Cubs system. Question of the day then becomes. Would you rather rely on Corey Patterson or Felix Pie for your centerfield future? In other news, Shawn Estes also became a free agent. Anyone interested? Anyone?

Could Jim Hendry leave the team? Anything is possible. (Source) - “In recent days, the Cubs’ brass have taken the first steps toward convincing general manager Jim Hendry to stay with the team.” Wow, that’s something I hadn’t heard before today. I thought Hendry was happy here, and maybe he is. The fact that he can opt out never even came to my mind. Awhile back some might have been in favor of this, but I like Jim Hendry and the job he has done with this team in his tenure. It would be a disaster if he were to leave this off-season, especially if it happened in December.

Rich Harden decision not made yet. (Source) - Carrie Muskat mentions that Jim Hendry is still weighing his options on this one. I’m not worried about it one bit. I fully expect him to be back and ready to go for this team in 2009. That’s not to say that I see him making 32+ starts.

I genuinely feel bad for Fukudome. - So many people have hated on the guy and trashed him. “My record as an individual wasn’t good at all, and I’m sorry that I disappointed some of the fans who had really high regards for me.” That was what Fukudome had to say and I would imagine it was a hit to the pride to say it. Call me a softy, but I’ve forgiven him for the bad season and I’m ready to embrace him come next year.

Posted in General | 3 Comments »