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Farm Report – Team OPS Leaders

Wednesday, June 20th, 2012

If you follow the minor leagues, you may have heard how some leagues are “pitchers leagues” and some are “hitters leagues”. Included below in the team leaders are the league averages. The raw numbers tell you a little about a player, the numbers relative to the league they play in tell you a little bit more. Matt Szczur might have a higher OPS than Arismendy Alcantara, but the latter’s age, relative to the rest of the league, makes his offensive performance a bit more impressive than Szczur’s.

As you can see, Iowa plays in quite the hitters league, with an average OPS of 775. In fact, that is the highest of any of the minor leagues. So while it’s nice that Josh Vitters has nearly an 800 OPS, he’s basically a bad game or two away from average. On the plus side, he’s significantly younger than the average AAA player. These are a couple of factors that people seem to leave out of their analysis and is also a reason why I, for one, am not ready to give up on Josh Vitters being a big league regular.

The average age could be a bit misleading, however. For example, AAA has a number of 30+ year old men to skew it on the high side. Also, guys like Peoria’s Paul Hoilman is also skewing the average age for the Midwest League by playing there instead of Daytona. And that would be one reason why Hoilman isn’t really much of a prospect.

Three players on this list, not including Anthony Rizzo, intrigue me:

  1. Junior Lake is having an excellent season in AA, at the plate anyway (he’s struggling in the field and on the basepaths this year). What I like most is the career best walk and strikeout rates. If those continue to hold, he’s got a future in Chicago at some yet to be determined position, be it third base or perhaps right field, where he can showcase his arm.
  2. Kevin Goldstein recently commented on Arismendy Alcantara saying he has the tools to stick at shortstop, has plus speed, and described him as a line drive hitter with a quick bat. Scout see him as a utility player at the least, with the chance to be an everyday guy. I’m a big fan of his performance as he is the 8th youngest player in the Florida State League.
  3. 2011’s top draft pick, Javier Baez, is crushing the ball down in Peoria. It’s a small sample, but there has been a lot of hype about his power and quick bat. He’s also showing some speed with 7 stolen bases without being caught, in only 18 games. He’s still playing shortstop, but a move to the hot corner is likely in his future.

So, anyone in particular impressing you? Besides Anthony Rizzo, of course.

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Farm Leaders – Extra Bases

Wednesday, June 13th, 2012

This week the Cubs finally added Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler to the organization and he brings with him a much needed infusion of power. Soler hasn’t seen a pitch, but once Anthony Rizzo graduates to the majors later this year, he’ll be in the discussion for the best power hitter in the system. The leaders in ISO (basically, how good is he at getting extra base hits? .250 is usually considered ‘excellent’, .180 is ‘above average’):

“Not much” is the theme with the farm system.

Anthony Rizzo is just a beast in AAA. In 650 AAA plate appearances, he has 46 homers and 49 doubles.

At his current pace, Brett Jackson, in 650 plate appearances, would strike out 198 times. Remember, that’s against AAA pitching. He might have a hard time just hitting the ball.

Nelson Perez and Luis Valbuena are non-prospects, so that leaves Josh Vitters and Paul Hoilman as the only others in the “above average” range. Vitters will be a big leaguer one day, but he might only be a Jeff Baker replacement.
Hoilman had a long hitting streak earlier in the season and tops the list in doubles. But he’s a bit old for the league he plays in and strikes out in over 30% of his plate appearances. Not going to go too far.

When Rizzo joins the Cubs, he leaves the farm system barren of a true power hitter. A year from now, I think we’ll see two new names at the top of this list, Jorge Soler and Javier Baez (who is at .191 right now after 54 PA).

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Top 20 Prospects Update

Wednesday, June 6th, 2012

The strategy in this years MLB draft appears to have been, not surprisingly, to stock up on pitching. After selecting center fielder Albert Almora with the sixth overall pick on Monday the Cubs drafted seven pitchers in a row. Most of these picks were of the “high ceiling” variety, and with the signing deadline being about a month sooner (July 13th this year) we’ll get to see some of these guys in action and get a first impression. How many of them will fall into VFTB’s Top 20 prospects next year? Based on the state of the Farm System, it may be quite a few. Here is how the Top 20 of 2012 are performing to date:

As I said a few weeks ago, ugly. Theo/Jed/Jason really only have one way to go here.

I highlighted both Anthony Rizzo and Ben Wells as they would be my choice for the current best hitting and pitching prospects in the system.

Keep your eye on the Peoria box scores as Javier Baez is showing the bat speed and power that got him drafted #8 overall last year. He’s also showing some immaturity. He ignored the coach’s take sign, swinging at a 3-0 pitch in a blowout, and earned a pitch to the ribs on the next throw. He was benched to start the next game but had to come in as an injury replacement and homered on the first pitch he saw over the batters eye in center…at least 420 feet out.

There is nothing really new to say about any of the other guys, so I included a couple of hitters and a couple of pitchers that weren’t ranked in the Top 20 that I find interesting this season.

  • Michael Burgess because of his drastic reduction in strikeouts. Last year he had 111 K’s in 495 plate appearances. This year, he’s on pace for 67 in the same about of PA.
  • I’m partial to players who are young for their league. Arismendy Alcantara is one of the youngest players in the Florida State league at 20 years old, but is showing he can hold his own offensively. The 301/327/442 line doesn’t do him justice; the league average is only 255/324/373.
  • I’m also partial to strikeout pitchers. Eric Jokisch put up a career best 8.6 K/9 before being promoted. He was an 11th round pick in 2010 and might be the first Cub draft pick to reach the majors.
  • Jose Rosario is inching his way up the system. He’s been with the organization since 2008, is playing in his first full season league, and already has a career high in innings pitched. Slow and steady!
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Cubs Minor League Strikeout Leaders

Wednesday, May 30th, 2012

Jed Hoyer:

“As an organization I think our pitching depth is one of our biggest concerns,” Hoyer said. “We don’t have a ton of arms in the minor leagues. I think the best organizations are just littered with power arms. Some guys will become starters, some guys will become relievers but the best bullpens are built internally.

“The more we can add those kind of arms during the draft the better. That will be a focus, not just in 2012 but every year. It is a little bit of an organizational hole so our ability to close that will be really important.”

Pitching depth, power arms, bullpen built internally. Sounds fantastic. Hopefully that means no multi-year free agent deals to relief pitchers. So who might we see in Chicago one day? These guys aren’t necessarily “power arms”, but striking guys out is one of the qualities I assume Jed looks for in those power pitchers, so here are the strikeout leaders per 9 innings, minimum 25 innings, no pitchers over age 27 included, cuz I just don’t care about them:

Matt Loosen tops the leaderboard with 31 strikeouts in 31.1 innings of work. He’s a bit old for the league, so it’s wait and see how he does as he climbs the ladder. 8.9 isn’t a very high number to be an organization leader. There are HUNDREDS of minor league pitcher that have higher K rates than 8.9.

Getting his first taste of full season baseball, Jose Rosario would be 21 out of 24 in hits allowed. His age, BB/9, and K/9 all look solid, but he’s light years away.

Travis Wood, like Rosario, gave up a lot of hits, but maintained solid BB and K rates before being promoted to Chicago. With a better defense on the big league team, could be here for good. I think he’ll be a 4th starter for a few years which is a good return for 70 innings of Sean Marshall.

Jeff Antigua is a relief pitcher I think we’ll be seeing in 2013 at the earliest.

Recently promoted to AA, Eric Jokisch is a starter worth following as he faces better players.

Two years ago I opined that Casey Coleman would never make it because he couldn’t strike out enough minor leaguers. I don’t know what’s changed, but he’s gone from 4.5 K/9 in 2010 8K/9 last year in the majors and this year in the minors…small sample size and all, but I’m curious to see how performs.

And that completes the list of minor leaguers that can strike out at least 8 batters per every 9 innings. The cupboard is pretty bare.

Noah talked about Ben Wells yesterday. I wanted to add one more link to the story, Adam Foster at Project Prospect listed Wells as one of seven “Elite” teenagers in full season leagues. Longs ways from Chicago as he is just 19, but he just might be the Cubs best pitching prospect right now.

That may change come Monday when the Cubs make the 6th pick of the draft.

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Cubs Minor League OBP Leaders

Wednesday, May 23rd, 2012

Last week we gave the ugly update on the VFTB’s Top 20 prospects. This week we’ll try and be a bit more positive and look at the leaders in on-base percentage. It’s led by none other than Anthony Rizzo, who continues to dominate AAA. In 592 plate appearances across the last two seasons, Rizzo is destroying the PCL to the tune of 335/407/661 with 40 doubles, 40 home runs, and 140 RBI.

The OBP list:

You might be looking at this list and thinking to yourself, “Who the heck are these guys?” I don’t blame ya. A lot of these minor leaguers are just organization filler with no hope of ever seeing Wrigley Field. It’s great that Daytona has Greg Rohan hitting 280/358/459, but he’s a 26 year old minor league veteran playing against guys 3 and 4 years younger. So let’s skim through the list and touch on the players you may have actually heard of.

Luis Valbuena is not a prospect, having accumulated over 800 plate appearances in the majors, but he has a slim chance of seeing time with the big league club. He’s not good, so don’t let the AAA numbers for this year fool you. He’s a September roster expansion possibility and that’s only if he somehow gets added to the 40 man roster. Although on this team, he might get some regular playing time.

Matt Cerda was a 4th round pick back in the 2008 draft. He’s split time at 2B and 3B, and his one offensive skill is that he can take a walk. He might get a cup of coffee, but more likely than not, Cerda is a career minor leaguer.

You may have heard of Paul Hoilman when he had his long hitting streak this year (I believe it ended at 23 games), but he’s also a guy that probably won’t sniff the big leagues. He plays 1B, and to be a 1B in the majors you need to be a pretty good bat. He’s struck out 51 times as a 23 year old in A-ball, and unfortunately, that’s not a sign of a pretty good bat.

Finally, down at #11 on our list, a potential major league contributor in Matt Szczur. He’s significantly improved his walk rate this year and has stolen 18/24 bases. His strikeout rate is solid, but he doesn’t hit for much power. The nationally known prospect guru’s are split on him. Some see him developing into an everyday centerfielder that can leadoff and steal bases while others see a speedy, slap hitting 4th outfielder. I lean with the slap hitting side, but his May numbers, 313/384/484, are a step in the right direction.

2011 3rd round pick Zeke DeVoss had a good looking debut with a .449 OBP, but he was a college player in short season Boise. This year, his numbers have fallen considerably, and despite a solid .353 OBP this year, he’ll need to hit a bit more to be a top of the order, switch hitting option at 2B.

We’re getting down to mediocre OBP’s now, but there are a couple more guys I wanted to highlight. Michael Burgess came to the Cubs as a lottery ticket in the Tom Gorzellany trade before the 2011 season. He didn’t have a good 2011, and 2012 isn’t much better, but his 2012 strikeout rate is about HALF of what is was while in the Nationals organization and he has some power potential, so the jury is still out on him.

I went 25 deep on this list for the sole reason of including Brett Jackson. His year in Iowa (228/324/430) looks bad and his 58 strikeouts look even worse. But he’s still a guy that could be a centerfielder with 20/20 potential and an average OBP. That is a good player to have…maybe not an all-star, but not a black hole in the lineup at an important defensive position. His stock is down, but he will still be a major leaguer by next season.

Like last weeks Top 20 recap, not very pretty. Bottom line is the Cubs farm system lacks talent. The draft is about two weeks away and is still the best way to add talent to the organization. Many of you hated the Carlos Pena signing last year, but he netted the team a draft pick, and that’s enough for me (he was also good enough to be signed by the Rays and bat leadoff last night!). The more draft picks, the better the chance of adding an impact player, which this system sorely needs.

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Top 20 Prospects Update

Wednesday, May 16th, 2012

We are well over a month into the baseball season and most full time players have at least 100 plate appearances under their belts. With the Cubs in a rebuilding year, I was pretty excited to watch the development of the young players in the farm system. While preparing this post and seeing the performances of VFTB’s pre-season Top 20, all I can say is “Thank God for Anthony Rizzo.”

It’s not pretty. First, the hitters (all stats through games of 5/14/12):

Ugly. Ugly ugly UGLY!

Rizzo is the only prospect that looks like he can handle the level he is at. Welington Castillo was doing pretty good in AAA before Steve Clevenger’s injury, but not a lot to be excited about down on the farm.

Except, maybe….Junior Lake. He  just came back from an injury, and is honestly, shocking me, with his patience at the plate. Last year he drew 19 walks all year long…this year he’s already at 8 in only 8 games. I was one of his biggest detractors, but this extremely small sample is a complete 180 from his 2011 approach, and outside of Rizzo, is now the most exciting guy that I follow.

It isn’t any better on the pitching side:

Trey McNutt has been successful when he’s pitched, but has only gotten through the 4th inning one time.

Gerardo Concepcion had a good outing on Tuesday that does not show up in these stats, and has his ERA under 10.00. YAY! He’s going to need some time to learn how to pitch.

Rafael Dolis has had the best season so far, but that’s not going to continue if he keeps on walking more than he strikes out.

Overall, a very disappointing 2012 so far for at least 11 of the 16 prospects that have played in a full season league. Next week I’ll dig a little deeper in the minors and see if we can find a few more players to get excited about.

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Farm Report: May 9 – Draft Watch

Thursday, May 10th, 2012




Iowa (8-7 loss)
Anthony Rizzo (1B)- 1 for 3, HR, 2 BB
Luis Valbuena (2B)– 2 for 3, 2B, 2 BB

Tennessee (4-1 loss)
Logan Watkins (2B)-
3 for 4, 2B, SB (6) (3 of the team’s 4 hits)

(5-1 loss)
Nothing notable here; team had two hits in the loss, both by shortstop Arismendy Alcantara.

Peoria (2-1 loss)
Paul Hoilman (1B)- 2 for 4, 3B, 22 game hitting streak
Kyler Burke (SP)– 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 4 K

Draft Watch

The annual Rule 4 draft is just under one month away and our favorite team has the sixth overall pick. This will be the sixth time since the 2000 draft the Cubs have had a single digit pick; previously taking such notables as Lou Montanez, Mark Prior, Ryan Harvey, Josh Vitters, and last year, Javier Baez. The 2012 class is not as top heavy as 2011’s ridiculously talented crop, but luckily for the Cubs, the top tier of players goes about eight players deep this year, so they will likely grab one of these players in June’s draft. Those eight player plus one wild card:

Byron Buxton, CF, High School
Buxton is widely considered the best talent in this years draft and will be off the board before the Cubs get their pick. He’s blazing fast with a cannon of an arm (he’s hit 97 mph off the mound) and will be a great defender in centerfield. His tools are raw, so he’s not the safest choice, but he’s drawn comparisons to Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and Eric Davis. The Houston Astros, with the #1 pick, might go after one of the college pitchers, but Buxton won’t fall out of the top few picks.

Mike Zunino, C, University of Florida
It’s a weak year for college bats and Zunino is the best of them. Even in a deeper draft, he’s still likely a top 5 pick. The way he is described reminds me of the Cubs own Brett Jackson; none of the tools are “plus”, but besides speed, everything is average to above average, and he does it at the most difficult position on the field.
He’s not the most exciting pick but most think he’s the safest. Also likely to be gone before the Cubs pick.

Carlos Correa, SS, High School
One of the youngest players in the draft, the 17 year old Correa already stands at 6’4″, 190 lbs. Because of that size, most scouts believe he’ll have to move off shortstop as his body fills out. He has the arm to handle 3B and the bat should play anywhere. Cubs first round pick in 2011, Javier Baez, was considered one of the better high school bats in last years draft, and I’ve seen reports saying Correa tops him. He is my preferred choice for the Cubs at six, but his stock has risen in the last week when scouts visited Puerto Rico and he connected with two home runs. Might not make it to six.

Albert Almora, CF, High School
Almora will almost certainly be on the board when the Cubs choose and if the three players above are all taken, the Cubs decision will be Almora or pitching. Almora doesn’t have the speed or arm strength of Buxton, but has great instincts and athleticism to expand his range, despite the average speed. He projects as a plus hitter with 20-25 home run potential, above average in centerfield, and is one of the “good makeup” types. I don’t think the Cubs take him, but included him because he is the best of the rest of position players.

Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford
Appel was a pre-season favorite, topping the charts of many. He’s had an up and down season so there’s really no telling where he might go. I think he’ll be taken in the top five, but there is a chance he slips. If he does, his stuff might be too good to pass up. He throws 94-97, touching 99 deep into games and has a good change up and breaking ball. Sounds perfect, but for some reason, he’s struggling to miss bats in college. He has #1 potential and would instantly become the Cubs best pitching prospect.

Kevin Gausman, RHP, LSU
The other player I think goes top five (along with Appel, Buxton, Zunino, Correa) but has a chance of being around for the Cubs. He’s similar to Appel with a 94-97 fastball that’s touch 99 (triple digits on some guns) and good secondary pitches, but Gausman is missing more bats this year than Appel and is now in the conversation for best pitcher in college. With Houston maybe leaning towards a college player, Gausman could be taken first overall.

Kyle Zimmer, RHP, University of San Francisco
Zimmer wasn’t a top tier player coming into the season, but flew up the charts when he was throwing 94-98 early in the season with a knockout curve. His change is decent and he’s very athletic (he’s a converted position player) so he fields the position well. He had a velocity drop in April that may have scared some, but it bounce back for a start before missing last weekend with a sore hammy. Zimmer is the toughest to pinpoint; he could go anywhere from 1-9.

Max Fried, LHP, High School
Rumor has the Cubs interested in Fried at #6. 6’3″, 170 lb left hander, he throws 89-93 and is projected to be a command/control pitcher with better secondary stuff than fastball but he could fill out and add a few MPH. Projects as a #2 with three average to plus pitches, although one report I saw had the scout saying he’d take Fried first overall.

One more:

Luc Giolito, RHP, High School
Fried’s teammate, Giolito was considered the best arm in the draft before a “minor” elbow injury shut him down early in the season. He just started throwing again, and he’s my wild card because if his medicals are clear, he could jump back into the top 5. He has the size (6-6, 230 lbs), fastball (hitting 100 multiple times), and is one of a very few in this draft that has Ace potential. If his medicals are OK, I would love to see the Cubs take Giolito.

I would rank them:


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Farm Report – May 6: Junior Lake back in action

Monday, May 7th, 2012




Iowa (12-4 loss)
Brett Jackson (OF)- 2 for 3, HR (3), BB, K
Jay Jackson (SP)- L, 4 IP, 5 R, 5 ER, 6 H, 3 K, 4 BB

Tennessee (4-2 loss)
Junior Lake (SS)-
 2 for 4, 2B, 3B, K, E (1)
Elliot Soto (2B)- 2 for 3, 2 BB, CS
Brooks Raley (SP)– 6 IP, 2 R, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 K, 2 BB


Matt Szczur (DH)– 1 for 4, BB, SB (16)
Arismendy Alcantara (SS)– 2 for 5, 2 3B’s, K, SB (6)

Peoria (9-2 loss)
Zeke DeVoss (2B)- 1 for 4, BB, K, SB (6)
Rafael Lopez (DH)-  2 for 5
Paul Hoilman (1B)- 1 for 4, 19 game hitting streak


Today we continue the prospect highlight segment on the Farm Report. Every Monday we will look at a prospect or two in the Cubs system. Are they meeting expectations? Surpassing them? Failing to meet them? And why?

Triple A IowaAdrian Cardenas (Util)

I’m highlighting Cardenas today because I think he’s going to be a guy we see much sooner rather than later. As soon as today, to replace Blake DeWitt with Travis Wood returning to Iowa after his spot start on Sunday, isn’t out of the question.

The 24 year old, left handed hitting Cardenas was a supplemental first round draft pick of the Phillies back in 2006. His worst batting average in a minor league season is .295. His worst on-base percentage is .354. This year, he is hitting a solid .319/.376/.521 with only five strikeouts and 11 walks. He won’t hit for much power, but he can make contact and draw a walk; a combination that neither Ian Stewart nor Darwin Barney does with any regularity.

Cardenas could be a pleasant surprise with the bat while filling in at 2B and 3B. He can also fill in at short, so he can play three positions, but he’ll play them poorly. That’s the reason Oakland let him go on waivers in the first place, and why no American League team claimed him before the Cubs…he doesn’t have a position.

But that’s not a problem for your 2012 Cubs. They are looking for any talent they can find and Cardenas just might be more talented than the current 2B and 3B options in Chicago.

Double A TennesseeJunior Lake (SS)

Junior Lake is finally back in action, playing in his first game of the season on Sunday and going 2-4 with a double and a triple. Lake, along with Matt Szczur, is a prospect that Cub fanatics love to be in love with while the expert prospect analysts tirelessly attempt to temper the expectations.

He jumped on the radar of many fans in 2011 when at 21 years of age, he hit .315 at Daytona before being promoted to Tennessee. He didn’t play all that well there but ended 2011 with 12 home runs and 38 stolen bases. The knock on his offense is that he just doesn’t have an idea of what to do (you can actually say the same thing about him at shortstop). His approach as the plate is deplorable; he’s only had one season where he’s received 20 or more walks and he’s struck out a high of 138 times in 2009, and 109 last year. That kind of all or nothing approach makes it very tough to succeed, and is reason why I left him off my personal top 20 Cubs prospect list.

One thing no one disagrees about with Lake is his arm. He arguably has THE best arm in all of minor league baseball. The arm is so good, that combined with his problems on offense and defense, some foresee his future on the pitchers mound.

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The Farm Report – May 3rd: Simpson Win, Vitters HR, BABIP

Friday, May 4th, 2012


Iowa / Tennessee / Daytona / Peoria


Josh Vitters (3B): 1st home run of season
Frank Batista (RP): The Cubs Minor League Pitcher of April pitched 1.2 innings, only gave up a hit, and struck out 2. Has a 0.00 ERA so far at Iowa…and picked up the blown save.

Jae-Hoon Ha (OF): 2-5 with a double
Trey McNutt (SP): 44 pitches, 26 strikes in 2.2 innings. 5 runs (2 earned), 2 walks, 1 K

Rubi Silva (RF): 2-4 with his first home run and first successful stolen base in six attempts
Matt Szczur (CF): 0-3, SB, run
Hayden Simpson (RP): Yup, relief pitcher. And WTF? 4 innings, 1 hit, 0 walks, 4 K’s and his second career win. Still, nothing to get excited about if he’s still only throwing mid-80’s. However, this article mentions he “touched 90” on Thursday.

Zeke DeVoss (2B
):  0-5 with 4 K’s
Paul Hoilman (1B): Extended his hitting streak to 16 games with a 1-for-4 night.
Pin-Chieh Chen (LF): 3-3 with a double


  • After seeing Hayden Simpson’s line, I looked him up and never noticed his career numbers before:
    97.2 innings, 1 win, 13 losses, 6.63 ERA, 1.88 WHIP
    And he’s 23 years old in High A.
  • I’ve become more and more interested in Daytona’s 2B/OF Rubi Silva because of his line of  333/386/469 (prior to yesterday’s game). But minor league numbers are to be taken with a large grain of salt and may not be indicative of ‘true talent’, so I make completely subjective adjustments to see if I should temper my excitement, proclaim him the next big thing, or, usually, something in between.
    His BABIP is .415. To give me a better read on the true talent level of minor league players, as a rule of thumb, I reduce the BABIP down to the .330-.340 range (which is near the high end of sustainability) and subtract the difference from his line. By doing that with Silva, I become less enthusiastic on him maintaining that 333/386/469 line and that line is probably not indicative of his true talent.
  • Another minor leaguer with some pretty looking numbers, and one we’ll probably see in Chicago before the year is over, is Iowa’s Adrian Cardenas. He’s only struck out 4 times in 93 plate appearances; nearly the best in the PCL. I like what I see in his numbers: 354/398/585 with a .342 BABIP. As I mentioned, that .330-.340 range of BABIP is in the high range, so with Cardenas, even if we project a low range BABIP of say, .290, and adjust from there, he maintains a solid line of 302/346/533 (although I’m not a believer in that slugging).  Cardenas’ knock has been his defense, but he is someone I think will contribute in the majors over the next couple of seasons.
    I’m not saying that adjusting a minor leaguers BABIP and AVG/OBP/SLG is a sure fire way to see what the team has in a player, but it’s a simple process I can do at a glance that I think gives me a better read than just the raw AVG/OBP/SLG line.
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