Closers – Can’t We All Just Get Along?

As I was racking my brain as to what to write about this week, I heard a discussion on sports radio regarding closers and it gave me the inspiration for my rant. We live in a time where the culture of baseball has changed dramatically from how it was just 10-15 years ago. Gone are the days where scouts opinions are the be all, end all evaluators on baseball talent and ability. They no longer are the sole gatekeepers as to who is considered a legit prospect and who is considered an organizational filler. Instead we now rely on multiple evaluations, including those provided by evaluating numbers. As a result, we’ve seen a pretty severe schisim come about between “statheads” and “traditionalists”. The former will claim that their way is the best way to evalate performance whereas the latter will claim that you have to trust your eyes. As a result, there are frequent arguments as to what stats are meaningless and worthless and which are not. Stats that have been traditionally been relied on for decades are not being challenged and subsequently disgarded as rubbish, which has in tern infuruated the traditionalists. Norms widely accepted by the baseball community as long standing truths are no being questioned and teams are beginning to try new things, which leads to my soap box rant today on the opinion of the closer role in baseball today.

The sabermetric standpoint would argue that the save stat is meaningless and that there is no difference in the outs that are required in the 9th inning as compared with those in the 7th and 8th. Managers and players alike become ill at this statement and have argued accordingly. My question is, why can’t they both be right? Let me explain.

I took a look at the leaders for saves so far this season and found the following. Currently 13 relievers have at least 10 saves on the season, with the leader (Jason Grilli) posting 17. I then took a look at the top 10 pitchers in terms of the average leverage index when they entered the game so far this season. Given that closers are typically reserved solely for the 9th inning save situation, we should see the top 15 list littered with closers. After all, the 9th inning is the most important inning according to traditional thinking. Of the top 15 players in terms of that metric, only six were closers. The other nine names in the top 15 were standard relievers. What that tells us is that the majority of pitchers who come into the game in high leverage situations are NOT closers. Seeing that a manager would not use a non-closer in a save situation unless he absolutely has to, we can reason that perhaps “closer” usage may need to be re-evaluated as the most critical inning of a game may not be in the 9th inning. Stat folks love this argument, and it makes perfect sense from a logical, numbers driven standpoint.

However, and it’s a really unfortunate however because I’m a very logical person, we’re factoring out the human eliment. What the stat folks forget to factor in is the human element. It’s easy to package the 9th inning in a nice box with a ribbon on it and say it’s exactly the same as every other inning in the game, but the fact is that until the game is played by emotionless robots, that will never be the case. Humans are riddled with emotion and cause the vaccuum tube to be burst wide open. It can’t be looked at that way. The fact is that players do feel more pressure based on the situation. The mind is a blessing and a curse. It can do wonderful things, but it can also psyche you out of a lot of things, so the argument that a guy needs to have the stomach for a 9th inning role, unfortunately, is true.

So who’s right? Is there a right answer? Not really, but for either side to argue that their right and the other side is wrong is completely irresponsible and ignorant. It’s time we get along on this and stop fighting as if either side is going to abandon their way of thinking. Ideally, every situation would be perfectly setup for the best reliever to pitch in the most critical situation with that situation being the 9th. Until that happens we need to all just shut up and let a manager manage his team the way he feels is best. When you get your shot, do it how you want.

(steps down from Soap Box)

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The Cubs Way – Rotation Management

Over the weekend, Dale Sveum was asked about what will happen with the rotation when Matt Garza comes back from his rehab assigment with the Iowa Cubs. Garza pitched again this weekend and did so effectively. He’s slated for two more rehab outings before, barring setbacks, he’s activated from the DL and returns to the starting rotation in a quest to showcase him for a trade before the July 31st non-waiver deadline. Dale’s answer, to be honest, pissed me off and, as a result, causes me to step up onto the soap box.

Dale went on record and stated that Edwin Jackson was not being considered for a demotion to the pen to make room for Garza. Also safe are Jeff Samardzija and Travis Wood, as they should be. Not safe, however, are Carlos Villanueva and Scott Feldman. I mentioned on Twitter that this was typical Cubs way of handling things, which caused a few reply tweets disagreeing with me. Apparently Jackson is “part of the future” and Feldman and Villanueva are not, to which I reply….that’s BS.

The true reason why Jackson is safe from demotion and Feldman and Villanueva are not has nothing to do with performance and it has nothing to do with potential. Jackson is safe solely due to money. This off-season all three were signed to help heal a rotation that was very much a sore spot for this team once Ryan Dempster and Paul Maholm were traded at the deadline. With no servicable names in the upper minors, Theo and Jed needed to do something to at least be respectible from a rotational standpoint and these three, along with reclamation project Scott Baker, were brought in to do just that. The difference was the level of committment.

Feldman – 1 year x $6 million

Villanueva - 2 years x $10 million (split evenly each year)

Baker - 1 year x $5.5 million

Jackson – 4 years x $52 million (includes $8 million signing bonus)

See the difference? It has nothing to do with performance. If it did, then any rational human being would be able to look at the numbers and see that Jackson is clearly the odd man out.

Some would argue that Jackson has more potential, however I’d argue that all are in the same age range at 29-30 years old and only one has been a member eight different organizations in his career. That speaks volumes about your potential. Guys who have tons of potential don’t tend to be moved that many times. In addition, looking at potential, you have to weigh the potential value in trade return for each of the three. Jackson’s contract, while not albatrossesque, is not nearly as movable as someone like Feldman or Villanueva. Given that fact, it makes more sense to let them continue with the success they are having in an effort to showcase them for the trade deadline. Teams would love to have a cheap starter with no long term committment at the deadline to help get them to the playoffs. Feldman and/or Villanueva both accomplish that, while Jackson does not.

In the end, it’s not my call to make, but if Jackson is not the odd man out, it becomes a total Cub move.

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Game 37 – A Hard Earned Series Win

Box Score / Highlights

Star of the Game – Gio Gonzalez – .448 (WPA)

At the beginning of the series, I had three thoughts. First, I was frustrated because I had planned to go to this series, but forgot it was so early in the year and it crept up on me. Before I knew it, it was here and I hadn’t made the arrangements to attend. That led to the second thought, which was that I was pretty sure I was not going to be able to see any of the games as MASN is not a channel I get on my lineup and I’m blacked out on MLB.tv due to proximity (5 hours) to Washington. Thankfully, two of the games were on WGN. Finally, I had a thought that if we could get out of the series with at least one win, I’d consider it a success. Instead, we leave with a series win after dropping the first game on Friday. Not a bad way to finish the weekend.

Normally, this is where I would rave about the job that Scott Feldman had done, but we’ll just mention that, once again, he looked really good. Definitely someone who should be a part of this rotation, but we’ll get to that in a little more detail later today when I step on my soapbox. Remember to check back around 2pm for that. Instead, we’d be doing a disservice to you the reader if we didn’t mention the job Gio Gonzalez did today in his limited amount of work. He was perfect through five innings and saw the perfecto broken up in the 6th by Dioner Navarro. He’d leave after seven innings of work, allowing just two hits and striking out six. The curious part about the day for Gonzalez was the length. He had cruised through the 7th and had tossed just 86 pitches. He could have easily come out for the 8th inning, but instead Davey Johnson elected to lift him in favor of the pinch hitter in the bottom half of the inning. It was curious at the time and it may have been the move that cost the Nats the series. It’s easy to say it was a mistake with the benefit of hindsight, but at the time, I questioned it as did Len Kasper. Johnson wanted to put up an insurance run, but there really was no reason to think that the one run they already had would not already be enough based on the day Gio was having. In the end, the Cubs plated a run in the 8th and then again in the 9th on some seeing eye singles and ended the day with a perfect inning save by Kevin Gregg.

RANDOM NOTES

• Shawn Camp was warming up in the bullpen, and while he didn’t make it into the game, he had two nice outings in this series. He’s running out of guys ahead of him that can be optioned or designated for assignment when Matt Garza comes off the DL so he better be pitching like his hair is on fire the next week or so.
• Luis Valbuena missed the game with an injured finger, which is fine with me. I’m not a Valbuena guy.
• Teddy Roosevelt won the presidents race. It was his first win of the year and comes on the heels of William Howard Taft picking up his first win of his career on Saturday.

UMPIRE EVALUATION

During each of my game recaps this season, we take a look at the night turned in by the home plate umpire. In 2012, the league average for correct calls on pitches taken was 87.1%. Today’s man in blue was John Tumpane, who put together an 83.1% correct call rate and really made no friends with right handed hitters, especially Kurt Suzuki late in the game. Take a look at his accuracy by zone and his called strike rate against the righties.

CORRECT CALL RATE

CALLED STRIKE RATE VS RIGHTIES

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Game 32 – Another Feldman Gem

Box Score / Highlights

Star of the Game – Scott Feldman – .246 (WPA)

Roster Moves – Before the game tonight, the Cubs announced that Kameron Loe had been designated for assignment, with Rafael Dolis being called up in his place. It was gonna either be him or Shawn Camp, who may be seeing his days numbered as well as Kyuji Fujikawa is on recab assignment and should be ready to return soon. One thing is for sure, there is no where to go for this pen but up. Hopefully this move helps.

Also announced was that Dave Sappelt was optioned to AAA in favor of Ryan Sweeney. He’s played really well in Iowa so far this year, hitting six home runs so far and posting a split line of .337 / .396 / .627. He has big league experience so hopefully he can take the 5th outfield spot and run with it. I’m not really sure why moves like these have taken so long. We’re not winning. Sappelt wasn’t hitting. Why not shuffle some names in here and see what happens? Teams that aren’t winning don’t need to stand pat with the status quo. When things aren’t working, try new things.

An interesting nugget from Sun Times:

Ian Stewart is taking the 72-hour available time to report to Class AAA Iowa, where he was optioned on Friday. Stewart wasn’t with the I-Cubs during the weekend, but general manager Jed Hoyer said Stewart had the right to wait up to 72 hours to decide to report.

It’s Gotta Be The Beard – Once again, we saw a nice game turned in by Scott Feldman. When you look at the rotation as it’s currently constructed, you have to begin to wonder if there is mystical power in the full beard. Feldman, Travis Wood, and Carlos Villanueva are all sporting it and all are pitching really well. Jeff Samardzija and Edwin Jackson, neither of whom have a full beard, can’t buy a win to save their lives. They need to strongly consider growing the beard. It’s sad how watching a bad baseball team will cause you to write rubbish like that, but it’s like grasping at straws every night. In all seriousness, Feldman really did turn in a nice night once again. Coming off a complete game in his last start, he limited the damage by the Rangers, his old team, and contributed at the plate in the 4th after the Rangers decided to intentionally walk Darwin Barney with two outs to get to him. The at bat would fuel the five run 4th inning that proved to be the difference in the game. Ron Washington would again call for the intentional walk to Barney in the 5th, but Feldman didn’t come through again, despite the crowd rising to it’s feet in a great cheer (not for Feldman, but because of the announcement that the Bulls had defeated the Heat).

We talked about it the other day and it bears repeating again today. Dale is very close to having a dilemma on his hands when Matt Garza comes back from rehab. Garza pitched for Iowa today and went 3.1 IP, allowing four hits and one earned run while striking out three and walking none. His time is drawing nearer to return and that will force Dale to move one of the five members of the rotation into the pen. Considering it’s not going to be Samardzija, that just leaves four names, three of which are pitching really well. It’s hard to see the big free agent signing of the off-season being demoted, but until he catch pitch with his head outside of his butt, he’s got to be the name to go.

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Game 28 – Stop Pissing Away Leads

Box Score / Highlights

To every action there is always an equal and opposite reaction ~ Isaac Newton

Watching the game today, that quote continually came to mind. Travis Wood was once again, and continues to be, outstanding. A look at the box score shows two earned runs, but those need to be split between Shawn Camp and Wellington Castillo. Camp for the wild pitch and Castillo for the boneheaded lack of hustle on the play to make any effort whatsoever to get the baseball and prevent the runner from scoring. It was as if I was watching my three year old when I tell him to….do anything. He just stands there with a dumbfounded look on his face and then walks away. For as well as the Cubs played in the first 2/3 of the game, that play alone was an equal and opposite reaction.

I’ll be honest, I don’t have a lot of patience after this one. My favorite Cub on this team is Travis Wood and I’m tired of this bullpen (I’m looking at you, Camp) pissing away leads not only for him, but for the rest of the starting rotation. What Dale Sveum and the Cubs management continue to see from Camp that gives them any reason to even dress Camp, let alone warm him up and bring him in is a mystery to me. He brings no value to the table and as soon as Fujikawa is ready to return from the DL, Camp has to be the guy that gets passed over to make room. Don’t get me wrong, the rest of the pen can all piss off too, but I’m tired of Camp. I’m tired of watching him in these games, and I’m tired of his sorry tail being on this team. I signed up to watch a team rebuilding, not a team trotting “never was” guys out there to fill a roster and that’s what Camp is to me.

Alright, now that I let you see the shameful side of my anger, let’s finish this off with some sweet smelling pot pouri and go take a rest knowing we split the series (feeling anger welling up again).

If you look past the Castillo boner, there were a couple of nice plays. One by Anthony Rizzo and one by Julio Borboun.

Time to let it go and gear up for the series this weekend against the Reds.

Umpire Report

During each of my game recaps this season, we take a look at the night turned in by the home plate umpire. In 2012, the league average for correct calls on pitches taken was 87.1%. Today’s man in blue was Dan Iassogna who turned in an 80.4% grade behind the plate. Let’s take a look at how accurate he was and what his strike zone looked like.

Called Strike Rates

Accuracy Report

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Game 27 – Maybe Scott Feldman Doesn’t Suck After All

Box Score / Highlights

Star of the Game – Scott Feldman – .248 (WPA)

Coming into the season, Scott Feldman was scheduled to be a part of the rotation, but his spot there wasn’t a lock. With both Matt Garza and Scott Baker on the shelf with injuries, the choice was made a lot more simple for Theo and Jed as to who made the rotation out of spring. The big question was if Feldman would pitch well enough to stay in the mix when either Garza or Baker came back. His first three starts of the season left much to be desired and it looked as if his time as a starter would be a short one. Monday night may have done a lot to change that as Feldman tossed a complete game and gave this team at least a series sweep with a chance to win it 3-1 tomorrow behind Travis Wood.

Roster Roulette – So Feldman’s nice outing tonight did a lot for raising his stock as we wait anxiously for Garza’s return. Garza, who made a rehab start for the Tennessee Smokies (AA) on Monday, is scheduled to return soon barring any setbacks in the rehab. His outing of 2.2 IP (42 pitches) went about as well as can be desired. He allowed one hit and walked two. Now we’ll watch to see how he feels in the next day or so. It’s encouraging for the Cubs as they really need to see Garza back strong and successful before the July 31 deadline. We missed the opportunity to move him last deadline so it’s imperative in the rebuild process that we maximize the return on him to continue to propel the development of this minor league system. The question then is who is the odd mad out when Garza returns? Obviously Jeff Samardzija is safe, as is Carlos Villanueva, assuming he continues along the way he’s pitched so far. Travis Wood, who goes tomorrow in the series finale should also be safe at this point. That leaves Feldman and Edwin Jackson, who has been brutal. Based strictly on the numbers, logic would dictate that it would be Jackson who is the odd man out. However, when you factor in money into the equation you have to start to worry if you’re Feldman. He needs to pitch like his hair is on fire in the coming weeks and force the Cubs brass to make a hard decision.

Moving on in the roster shuffle, the Cubs are nearing deadline day for a decision on what to do with Ian Stewart. He’s been rehabbing since being unavailable to make the team out of spring training and is currently on rehab assignment. According to ML rules, players on rehab assignment have 20 days before they must be recalled, which prevents teams from just leaving them on assignment to rot. It’s a tough problem because of how poorly Stewart has been hitting. He’s not even close to being able to make a difference for this team at the Major League level and the decision needs to be made by Friday. The Cubs are on the hook for all $2 million of his salary since he was not cut before the end of spring training. Last night’s game did nothing to ease the fear that keeping him was a mistake as Stewart went 0-for-4 with a strike out, lowering his average in AAA to an abysmal .091. I can’t see a scenario where he’s recalled based on how well Cody Ransom and Luis Valbuena have played this season.

Batting Order Shuffle – Lots of talk about shuffling of players tonight and the batting order was not immune. Dale Svueum made a change in the order, hitting Starlin Castro in the 5th spot instead of his 2nd spot in the order. The rationale is that it takes advantage of his ability to be a run producer, but personally I don’t see him as that type of bat. I like him in the 2nd spot, but tonight it worked. I wonder if the move stays with Soriano in the lineup. He had the day off tonight against the hard throwing, Andrew Cashner. We’ll see tomorrow what Dale decides to do. Personally, I like to David DeJesus, Castro, Anthony Rizzo, Soriano, Nate Schierholtz lineup one to five.

RANDOM NUGGETS

• Real nice approach to Cashner tonight. When he was a part of the Cubs system, I got to see him pitch a few times in AA and the biggest knock on him was his ability to work deep into a game because of the control issues and the propensity to work deep into counts and rack up strikeouts. You like a guy that can get guys out on the strikeout, but when it causes you to struggle to get through five innings, it’s useless. Rich Harden had similar issues and tonight the Cubs went into their at bats with patience and worked deep into the count, forcing Cashner out of the game after just four innings.
• Keeping with the Cashner topic, if you had to go back right now and decide what to do with that trade, would you still make it? Cashner was traded by the Cubs with Kyung-Min Na to the Padres for Zach Cates and Anthony Rizzo. There is no question as of right now, I would. Time will tell what Cashner will become. I still really like his potential, but I have a feeling the Cubs got the better of the deal by far.
• Much improved fielding by Feldman tonight. He’d been plagued by three errors so far this season.
• Rizzo now leads the team with four stolen bases

UMPIRE REPORT

During each of my game recaps this season, we take a look at the night turned in by the home plate umpire. In 2012, the league average for correct calls on pitches taken was 87.1%. Tonight’s man in blue was Brian Knight who turned in an 85.2% grade behind the plate. Let’s take a look at how accurate he was and what his strike zone looked like.

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Sounding Off On Roster Management

I am going to admit something to you. It’s a little embarrassing, but I feel like, in light of Jason Collins coming out as a homesexual, I need to come out with this secret that I’ve kept buried deep inside of me for way too long.

/Takes deep breath

I am a roster management addict. I am fully addicted to pouring over the roster make up and looking for ways to improve from not only outside of the organization via waivers, free agency and trades, but from within the organization via the farm. I can’t help it. I’ll be watching a game, see a player leave for some reason related to an injury and immediately begin to speculate on who the replacement might be and how Jed and Theo can make that work under the current CBA constraints. As a result of this crazy addiciton, I’ve come up with my ideal roster construnsruction and right now the Cubs are not following it.

Obviously you need to go in with all the starting position players filled as well as a rotation of five pitchers (don’t get me started on this one right now). From there, it’s a personal preference when it comes to constructing this roster for the other twelve spots.

Bench – Some would say that contruction of this would vary based on if you’re in the NL vs the AL, but I disagree. I build my roster the exact same way. The only difference is that it gives the AL manager a little more flexibility in how he uses the bench because the need for pinch hitting for the pitcher is not needed. I contruct my bench with six position players. This varies from the traditional bench of five or even four, but I do it for a reason. First, I carry an outfielder with the ability to play at least one of the corner spots, preferably the ability to play both. From there I also carry a centerfielder to back up my starter. Ideally one of those two backup outfields will have the ability to play multiple OF spots. I also carry a backup third baseman with the ability to play first if needed in a pinch or on a day off for the starter. I carry a backup middle infielder. I carry a backup catcher (if the backup 3B can’t cover first, I look for a catcher who can). That leaves me with the extra spot, which I liken to the flex position in fantasy football. I use this spot for a specialist of some sort, preferrably focused on speed and defense, in that order. The rationale is that I can use this player in a pinch late in the game as a runner, in an attempt to get my tying or winning run in scoring position. If I cannot find a player that fits this mold, I look for a third catcher, if and only if, my backup catcher has a bat I feel is valuable as a pinch hitter.

Bullpen – This one is short and sweet. Carrying 12 pitchers is ridiculous. It leads to some guy getting burried and forgotten at the end of the bullpen bench and as a result, rusting like the tin man. This year it’s Hector Rondon who is suffering as a result of the bloated pen. He’s been used in seven games this year, but has only thrown six pitches in the last week. It’s no way to develop a bullpen arm from within. I understand he needs to remain on the active roster due to his rule five status, but he’s pitched a lot better than someone like Shawn Camp, yet Camp continues to answer the phone when it rings. Carrying 11 pitchers solves this problem. In the event that someone gets tired or a game goes long, you call a fresh arm up and option a guy down. If you construct the pen with that flexibility, it doesn’t become an issue.

Maybe this is just me ranting, but I’m tired of people just following the mold when it comes to the way things are done in this game. Try something new. That is all.

/steps down from the soapbox

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Game 24 – The Sweep That Almost Was

Box Score / Highlights

Star of the Game – Giancarlo Stanton – .471 (WPA)

Coming into the series, the Cubs and Marlins have met for a four game set seven times. None of those were won by a sweep. This weekend’s series continued that trend as the Marlins salvaged a game thanks to a hint of offense, something they hadn’t gotten much of all series.

It’s  a little frustrating to not come away with a series sweep, but a series win is a start. Carlos Villanueva, who was outstanding coming into the game, tossed is first so so start, but still managed to get through six innings while allowing just four runs and left with his team down just a run. He kept it close, which is what you want from your starter. Unfortunately, this year we need the starter to either go the distance or be supported by a plethora of runs to the extent that the bullpen can’t give it away. It didn’t happen and we saw a loss because of it. Not much other major things to report, so we’ll end with some minor notes and noticings from the game.

• Anthony Rizzo continues to hit the ball hard and I believe he’s going to have a huge series against the Padres. He has a chance to tie Alfonso Soriano for most home runs by a Cub in April. The record is 10 and he stands at eight.
• Through the first two games of the series, the Cubs really did a good job minimizing Stanton. When you look at their lineup, he’s essentially a one man show. I was amazed at how few players on that team that I knew. Next time you get discouraged by our rebuilding process and the lack of talent, watch a Marlins game and be encouraged.
• The centerfield camera is really good for alignment with the plate. It’s almost completely straight away.

Umpire Report

Jim Joyce had the plate on Sunday. You might remember him from such games as the Gallaraga “perfect game” that wasn’t. What made me laugh is that the Marlins broadcast crew raved about Joyce and said he was one of the most accurate in the game. When you’re a broadcaster, apparently you can say whatever you want without looking up the numbers to make sure they support your claim. A quick look at the data since 2009 shows that Joyce ranks 40th for correct call rate behind the plate. An 82.7% correct call rate was what he put up today, which equates to a below average day behind the plate. His strike zone was quite accurately vertically. It was horizontally that he got a little crazy. The outside pitches were particularly generous to the pitchers.

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Game 22 – A Win Streak Begins

Box Score / Highlights

Star of the Game – Anthony Rizzo – .321 (WPA)

BREAKING NEWS – The Cubs have a win streak. Last night a win meant the first streak of the season. Nevermind that it comes at the hands of the Marlins. A streak is a streak.

Watching the game yesterday, I came away with two main talking points. If you’ve read my recaps before, you know that I don’t really focus on retelling you what happened in the game. You have eyes and can watch the game yourself. You don’t need me to repeat it back to you. Instead, I try to look for topics to discuss.

A Glimplse of what Rizzo can be – He’s been criticized a great deal this year for the somewhat cold start. At times he’s looked confused at the plate and has struck out more than you’d like to see, but last night we caught a look at the potential that he has. Coming into the game, Rizzo was just 1-for-19 and fresh off an 0-for-4 with three strikeouts on Thursday. He more than made up for that lack of success with a pair of two run bombs to singlehandedly provide all the offense that would be needed in the game.

I’m not going to sit here and say that I know Rizzo is going to be a hall of fame caliber player in his career. No one can project that. What this is important is to set realistic expectations for this season as his first full season in the Majors, and those can’t be for him to win the MVP. We need need to see improvement and progression. There are a few things I’m looking for from Rizzo. If I can see improvement in these areas, I’ll continue to be encouraged an excited about the future.

First is his strikeout rate. We saw in 2011, when he was in the Padres system, a strikeout rate of 21.5% in AAA and 30.1% for the big league club. Last year those numbers hovered around 17% between ML and Iowa combined. For Rizzo, and for any player in general, that’s a huge step forward. This year it’s not gone as well, but if he can get that strikeout rate around 15%, I’ll be thrilled as the development we’ve seen from him in the short time he’s been here.

Second is his walk rate. I want him at or above 10% in this area. By decreasing the strike outs and increasing the walks, it shows that the plate discipline is growing. That should help that power continue to translate to run production. I don’t expect him to be an on base machine like a Joey Votto, but if we can see him just make pitchers work a little harder I’ll be happy.

Third is the power. You might say that third should be the batting average, which I’ll admit is low at this point (.200), but if you look at his BABIP you’ll see that the balls just aren’t finding the holes right now. His BABIP is at .176. That’s going to improve and we’ll see the average increase. I say that third is power because this team doesn’t have a lot of it. Rizzo is projected to be a middle of the order bat and with that needs to come power production. Last season we saw a combined 38 home runs between AAA and ML. It’s tough to just put that as his bench mark since half of those homers came against minor league pitchers, but I think it’s reasonable to expect 30+. That’s what I am setting as the expectation.

Scott Feldman looked much better – His first few outings have been less than desireable and it was looking like his starting rotation spot might be in jepopardy when (and if) Matt Garza returns. Last night he looked really good, with good movement and bite on his pitches. It’s an encouraging sign. He’s not going to be a guy that overpowers you with strikeouts. He’s a guy that tends to throw strikes and wins by pitching to contact. It’s not ideal, but last night it got the job done.

UMPIRE REPORT

After each game I’m assigned to recap, we take a look at the success of the home plate umpire. Last night’s man in blue was Joe Wolf, who had less than a stellar night making judgement calls behind the plate and came in with a correct call rate around 77%. That’s really below average. Let’s take a look at the heat maps that tell the story.

What you’ll see in this first map is that Wolf was all over the place with his strike zone. It was wide. However, the next graphs give you a little bit better picture as we see that it was primarily wide to the righties.

As a result, we see a correct call rate for the night that was less than stellar. Not a good night for the man in blue behind the plate.

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