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Super Bowl Predictor System

Written by , Posted in General

by John Dewan

After correctly predicting the Super Bowl winner 90 percent of the time over a 20-year period, the Super Bowl Predictor System is ready for mothballs.

Why is that?

Just like many of you, I am a fan of a specific team. I haven’t missed a Chicago Bears game since the start of Walter Payton’s career. In January of 2007 the Bears were going to the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl Predictor System said the Bears were an overwhelming favorite. The Chicago media was all over this.

Except, Peyton Manning had something to say about it. Despite an opening kickoff return for a touchdown by the Bears’ Devin Hester, Manning led the Colts to an upset victory.

I should have quit while I was ahead. That Bears Super Bowl launched a performance slump where the Predictor System has missed five of the last seven Super Bowls. The overall record of the system is down to a 64 percent success rate. Not horrible, but with its recent record, here’s what I have to say: Sayonara.

For those of you who still want to know what the system says, it says that Manning is going to lose again. But I ain’t gonna bet against him a second time. The Seahawks won 7 of the 12 predictors, with two going to the Broncos, and three ties. The details:

Category

Win%

Team with Advantage

Points Scored

.553

Broncos

Points Allowed

.617

Seahawks

Point Differential

.617

Broncos

Fewer Net Passing Yards

.596

Seahawks

Rushing Yards

.532

Seahawks

Rushing Yards/Carry

.553

Seahawks

Opponent Net Passing Yards

.553

Seahawks

Opponent Rushing Yards

.596

Tie

Opponent Rushing Yards/Carry

.574

Tie

Opponent Total Yards/Game

.638

Seahawks

Turnover Differential

.574

Seahawks

Regular Season Record

.532

Tie

For old times sake, here’s how the system is designed to work. Each of the 12 predictors predicts the Super Bowl winner correctly 53 percent to 64 percent of the time. When taken together they have a greater success rate. However, now for the first time since we started the system, there is one stat that is just as successful as the 12 indicators put together. It’s Fewer Opponent Total Yards, which has predicted the winner 30 out of 47 times (64 percent). This too suggests that the Seahawks, the better defensive team, are going to win.

I’m picking the Broncos.

Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week®, www.statoftheweek.com.

  • Doug S.

    It’s tough to argue with 90% but I’d add intangibles/other factors that play into this such as:
    -Number of loud mouth players providing extra incentive to other team
    -Broken curfews week of the game
    -Failed drug tests
    -Team arrests
    -Etc.

    Or….you could consult the ape in Salt Lake City who’s nailed the last 6 SBs.
    Ape likes the Hawks and get this……..his name is Eli.

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/2013/story/_/id/10379111/utah-ape-predicts-seattle-seahawks-win-super-bowl

    • Eddie Von White

      Or…you could just pick the team you want to win on a purely emotional basis. Out of all the players out there, I like Peyton Manning the best. I’ll be rooting for the Broncos.

      • PLCB3

        Exactly how I feel. He’s good. Because I like 6-5 230 lb QB with a laser rocket arm.

  • PLCB3

    Awwwwwwwww…The Denver Broncos!?

  • Doug S.

    Manning beating Sherman deep would be beautiful.

  • Chuck

    Who cares. I have no interest in football games that my kids are not playing in.

  • Noah_I

    Very interesting stuff, but some Cubs news broke! The Cubs reportedly agreed to terms with RHP Jason Hammel. This is another Maholm/Feldman type of move, although more of the Feldman variety (better stuff than results to this point) than the Maholm variety (whose stuff is only meh).

    I generally viewed Hammel as the most desirable of the third tier starting pitchers. There was only one first tier starter (Tanaka) and there are three second tier starters (Garza, Santana, Jimenez), the way I look at it. Haven’t heard about money, but odds are it is something where the Cubs could flip him if they can get a good return.

    Presuming Hammel passes his physical, the rotation will be Samardzija, Wood, Jackson, Arrieta, Hammel, with Villanueva in the pen. My bet is Rusin will continue to start in Triple A.

  • cap’n Obvious

    60% of the time, it works every time…

  • cap’n Obvious

    60% of the time, it works every time…

  • PLCB3

    What did the system predict the year it was Colts-Saints and Manning lost? Did the system say COLTS stands for Count On Losing The Super Bowl?

  • AC0000000

    What did the system predict the year it was Colts-Saints and Manning lost? Did the system say COLTS stands for Count On Losing The Super Bowl?

  • Bryan

    I have a fool-proof Superbowl prediction. Let me just wait until Monday morning and I will tell you all my pick…

    • That would be a postdiction.

    • PLCB3

      I know what the score will be before the game begins.

  • Bryan

    I have a fool-proof Superbowl prediction. Let me just wait until Monday morning and I will tell you all my pick…

    • That would be a postdiction.

    • AC0000000

      I know what the score will be before the game begins.

  • Buddy

    I really dislike both Super Bowl teams, so I’m not sure what to root for this year. A competitive game I guess. And a day without snow in my town!

    • jswanson

      I’ve got a 3-day plow streak with my 4-wheeler. Some sort of hillbilly suburban hat trick probably.

  • Buddy

    I really dislike both Super Bowl teams, so I’m not sure what to root for this year. A competitive game I guess. And a day without snow in my town!

    • jswanson

      I’ve got a 3-day plow streak with my 4-wheeler. Some sort of hillbilly suburban hat trick probably.

  • Doc Raker

    Yeh football is over, one step closer to Spring Training.

  • Doc Raker

    Yeh football is over, one step closer to Spring Training.