I’ve really wanted to have an opportunity to write about Dan Vogelbach since we started these pieces a few weeks ago. I was hoping he’d explode with just a massive week or two and he’d fit neatly into the Three Up segment. But, despite having a solid year, he hasn’t done anything to improve his prospect status. So in this edition of Three Up, Three Down, we’ll be looking at three players instead of six. Specifically, these are players who, on first glance, might look to be up. However, a deeper examination at least shows that they have done little to nothing to improve their prospect status since the start of the season. As a note, all statistics are through Thursday, May 15.
Daniel Vogelbach, 1B, age 20, Low A
158 PAs, .292/.363/.438
5 2Bs, 5 HRs, 17 BBs, 21 Ks
.366 wOBA, 126 wRC+
There is a lot of good with Dan Vogelbach’s full season debut to this point. Specifically, he is hitting for a high average, walking, and not striking out. Despite showing excellent plate discipline, there’s still a problem: due to Vogelbach’s limited defensive abilities, he needs to dominate on the offensive end. And that includes hitting for power. As Vogelbach is averaging an extra base hit about every 3 and a half games, he just isn’t doing that yet.
Now, it’s early, the Midwest League is a pitcher’s league, and the Midwest League in the nasty weather of a spring across the north central portion of the United States is particularly nasty on hitters, but Vogelbach was a guy some were pegging as a prospect who could jump into Top 100 lists and fly through the system. At this point, I’d be surprised to see him in Daytona before August, and he probably won’t do enough to be considered a truly big time prospect prior to next season.
Matt Szczur, OF, age 23, Double A
162 PAs, .301/.370/.385
4 2Bs, 1 3B, 2 HRs, 13 SB, 3 CS, 15 BBs, 21 Ks
.354 wOBA, 120 wRC+
Before Vogelbach was the darling of the non-elite Cubs prospects, Matt Szczur filled that role. As a person, Szczur has 80 character, and is a fantastic athlete who probably would have been a mid-round NFL pick out of Villanova as a slot receiver and punt returner. In his second shot at Double A, Szczur has hit for average, walked a good amount and not struck out this season. The problem is that his notoriously slappy swing is hitting for no power, and as Szczur is approaching his 24th birthday in July (he’s actually older than Anthony Rizzo by a few weeks), his time to start adding power is limited.
Quite simply, it’s hard to be a slap hitting, singles only, right handed regular in the big leagues. Szczur’s inability to add any power means he’s almost certainly a fourth outfielder down the road, and not a big time prospect today.
Dustin Geiger, 3B/1B, age 21, High A
143 PAs, .286/.357/.397
5 2Bs, 3 HRs, 25 BBs, 13 Ks
.348 wOBA, 115 wRC+
I’ll admit, Geiger’s cheating a bit on this, as he’s never been considered a significant prospect. However, as a 21 year old in High A Ball, he’s not a nobody either. The unfortunate thing for Geiger is that, despite the healthy OBP, to play in the majors he’d need to hit for power. And he hasn’t done that yet.