Morning News: Fat-Free Edition

The Closest We Will Get – Fat Dan
MLB.com has Dan Vogelbach rated as the 8th best first base prospect in the minors. To which I say, if Dan is a 1B prospect, then Soriano really might play 3B for us this year. In reality, Vogelbach needs to get traded to the AL or hope the DH is instituted in the NL – and quickly. Most talent evaluators have him rated as a 1B strictly because the Cubs keep trotting him out there – not because he’s capable of fielding the position. When you’re 6′ 250lbs (and if he’s only 250 someone should check and make sure he didn’t cut off a limb) there isn’t a lot of hope for your longterm prospects as a fielder.

It’s Been A Slow Weekend For Sports
Novak Djokovic won the Australia (Tennis) Open. The sputtering Lakers & Celtics each scored big, regular season wins. Tiger is likely to run away with the tournament at Torrey Pines when it finishes on Monday. The NFL Pro-Bowl was on Sunday…no one cared.

Travel Tips
Don’t go to Brazilian night clubs. Or Egyptian soccer matches. Or Venezuelan prisons. Or Compton. Or the Isle of Wight.

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Doc Raker

The Blackhawks are off to their best start ever at 6-0 and Seymour has his name hanging on a locker at Fitch Park in Mesa AZ. Mesa’s Subways are going to be busy this week, who says it is a slow news weekend?
YUCottonPickin

With Miami’s loss yesterday, the Derrick Rose-less Bulls are only 3 games behind Miami for first place in the East.
Dusty Baylor

So there’s no hope that, at age 20, and after slimming down considerably, judging from off-season pics, that Vogelbach could be even a mediocre fielding 1B in a couple of seasons? None?
Chuck

The biggest issue fro Vogelbach right now is Rizzo. If Vogelbach is not going to be a better hitter than Rizzo, then he is effectively blocked and should be traded. I can live with a butcher at 1B, but he had better bring a big stick to make up for it.
Dusty Baylor

Well of course. Hopefully, this will be a nice problem to have in two years…Rizzo established as a good player with Vogelbach in the wings…
YUCottonPickin

We should look into moving him to LF
Gymjok

Prince Fielder is listed as 5-11/275.
Don’t know where his glove work is rated.
Average, below average,bad,terrible, butcher.
He sure is being paid a lot of money.
Hang in there Dan.
Gymjok

SEYMOUR SEYMOUR SEYMOUR !!!
YUCottonPickin

Price is an okay Fielder. I never thought of Tubby Veggy though when looking at Vogelbach.
http://swantron.com/ jswanson

Prince can flat out fly for a big dude. Fat Dan moves like a fat kid.
Verncrowe5

My thoughts exactly
YUCottonPickin

I remember when he hit that inside the parker in 2007, SportsCenter clocked him rounding the bases in 17 seconds. And this is with a lazy jog for the first 2 seconds because he thought it was a lazy fly ball
Dusty Baylor

I’ll wait until Vogelbach gets a couple of seasons in before deciding whether he’s going to fail or not. Maybe a couple of seasons as a pro, and working with the Cubs strength/conditioning program will help him lose weight, and help his athleticism
http://swantron.com/ jswanson

They also clocked Vogelbach taking down a foot-long hot dog in eight seconds, three of which were spent scraping off the relish.
YUCottonPickin

Amateur. Kobayashi could eat 5 of those in 8 seconds.
Chuck

If Vogelbach hits anywhere near what Prince does (.313/.412/.528, 152 OPS+last season) he can play anywhere he wants. I believe that Prince is somewhere in the terrible/butcher area for defense but he hits so well that he more than makes up for it.
On a normal team Prince would be a DH. However, Detroit is a team full of bad defensive players such as Prince, Miggy, and Delmon Young so somebody has to play in the field.
Eddie Von White

Yeah, that’s what I say too.
Jerry in Wisconsin

He can’t be any worse than Derrick May.
Jerry in Wisconsin

Delmon is now in Philly, killing any Soriano deal. Obviously Philly likes outfielders if less than we do.
YUCottonPickin

Hopefully the Tigers will take Soriano. We know they’re in win-now mode, if they had another bat it could put them over the top.
Jedi

I don’t think a guy who has never been even a decent fielder is suddenly going to be able to play defense at the MLB level because he shed a few pounds. First base isn’t exactly the ‘stand over there and wait to catch the ball’ position that some people make it out to be. Vogelbach looks more like a late-career Matt Stairs to me. Might someone put him in the field just to get his bat in the lineup? Sure. Will any pitcher ever be comfortable with him in the field? Not a chance.
YUCottonPickin

Younger Matt Stairs played the field decently though. He played a good 1B for us in 2001 before we got the Crime Dog. I think Vogelbach will make a good OF. I wonder how his arm is though, if it’s a noodle like Pierre, or a cannonball like Soriano.
Dusty Baylor

Hey Derrick May was….pretty mediocre.
He was no Kevin Roberson!
Jedi

Younger Matt Stairs wasn’t as hefty or immobile as Vogelbach. Fat Dan today resembles the mid-to-late 30s Stairs more than any recent MLBer in my memory.
Dusty Baylor

Vogelbach has reportedly lost 40 lbs this off-season.
I’ll wait until he, or any player gets past short season-A ball to either write them off, or to trumpet their future stardom. Same with their hitting or fielding ability. He’s got 67 games under his belt. Let’s see how he does in full season ball.
http://swantron.com/ jswanson

Despite what we have heard from every scout and MiLB beat reporter since Fat Dan was signed, you are probably correct. The kid who is too fat to play a serviceable 1B in low A ball is probably going to make a good outfielder.
Dusty Baylor

Maybe not Jedi. But a drop of 40 lbs, as is being reported, is significant.
It could result in an increase in flexibility and agility, which would help his fielding at 1B. We’ll see this year, if that is in fact what has happened.
Jedi

Vogelbach is more likely to be waiting WITH wings. Hot and spicy to be exact.
YUCottonPickin

The guy is young too. Give him time. I don’t care about him being fat, but I want to move him to the OF so that if he does have a good stick, we can keep him and Rizzo. I don’t subscribe to the belief that we’re going to be forced to trade every good 1B in our system away as long as Rizzo mans 1B. It just means that every 1B in our system, the ones that have potential to make it to the show, are going to have to learn another position. Rizzo won’t be getting a 9-figure contract because his defense is stellar. He’ll get a 9-figure contract because he can mash.

Singles hitters drive Fords, Home Run hitters drive Cadillacs.
YUCottonPickin

Not BBQ with blue cheese? Boo!
Jedi

Right, shed a kindergartner in weight and you too can play first base. Look, it’s not unreasonable to think that a guy who has never been servicable at a position will continue to be a terrible fielder. Could an MLB team prop him up over there and hope for the best? Sure; but he could dump another 100lbs and that still wouldn’t make him a major league quality fielder. Guys who grew up playing organized baseball and make it to the minors without any ability to field a position don’t take some magic Tom Emanski pills and win a gold glove. He can’t field, traditionally that means he’ll bounce around the AL and/or become a terrible fielding first baseman that hits the ball a long way. There are worse things…
Jedi

CAPS I don’t think anyone is saying that – the reason we’ll likely have to dump Vogelbach is because his only natural position is DH. If somehow he forces his way onto the 25-man with the Cubs, it’s Rizzo who’ll be moving so that immobile Dan can stay closer to the concessions at 1B.
YUCottonPickin

Why would you move Rizzo? 1B generally have weak throwing arms as they get older, he wouldn’t make a very good OF. Plus we all know that Rizzo has a big head and a bad attitude. Why can’t Vogelbach play OF?
http://swantron.com/ jswanson

#11 1B prospect: Seymour Butts’ buddy Jarod from Subway
Jedi

What didn’t kill him (a fall in the snow) definitely didn’t make him stronger (since he now has no spleen).

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8890035/carl-pavano-spleen-injury-was-very-serious-agent-says
http://swantron.com/ jswanson

I’d go with that. Sori and Fat Dan in the corners and Jarod from Subway in center.
Dusty Baylor

Also, to reasonably assume ….after 67 games?
That’s my point…writing off a 19 year old after 67 games as a bad fielder.
He’s 19 for crying out loud.
He might end up a straight DH…but I don’t agree with giving up on him becoming at least a mediocre fielder at 1B. Outfield…uh..maybe not so much.
Jedi

Typically you move the guy who is less likely to have a heart attack to the position that requires more running.
YUCottonPickin

Soriano will be in a wheelchair from that stupid hop by the time Vogelbach is playing for the MLB team
YUCottonPickin

But what if Vogelbach slims down?
Jedi

It’s not just 67 games Dusty…it’s 20 years of being the fat kid who can’t field. This isn’t a guy who is getting accommodated to advanced coaching on footwork or a refined throwing motion. It’s not technique…it’s lack of physical ability.
YUCottonPickin

And he’s never going to drop the lbs?
Dusty Baylor

Okey dokey.
So no amount of professional coaching, no amount of extra work, and no amount of getting into much better shape can help make a 19 year old player a serviceable fielder.
Got it.
Dusty Baylor

Sheesh….Pavano should wrap himself in bubble wrap from October-February…
Jerry in Wisconsin

That is why I brought up Derrick May he is the only left fielder I ever saw bounce a throw to the relay man
YUCottonPickin

Pierre was pretty lousy too
Jedi

Now you’re just being preposterous. You want to ignore his first 20 years of ‘athletic’ endeavors and assume it’s effort and training that’s lacking. If only playing baseball at the highest level were so easily attainable.
http://swantron.com/ jswanson

Jarod from Subway could just slim down some more and cover LF too. Pretty basic stuff.
YUCottonPickin

I was thinking Vogelbach to play LF once Soriano is gone
Dusty Baylor

Again…its a whole new ballgame if he gets into shape, and works hard at his defense.
I’d like to see Vogelbach get a couple of full seasons in the minors before I judge him a strict DH. I agree, to disagree with you Jedi.
YUCottonPickin

It’s very easy to pack on lbs. I was really skinny the first 16 years of my life, then I got fat and lazy, and my weight ballooned 40 lbs. We don’t know if he was fat or not as a kid.
Chuck

I think any conversation of what to do with Voglebach should wait until he proves he can hit AAA pitching, at the earliest.
YUCottonPickin

Muskat should put that in her mailbag too then, not to have a conniption fit over Vogelbach since he’s only had 67 games of professional baseball
Jedi

Totally disagree – he doesn’t need to hit in AAA before he has trade value. With a normal prospect that you hope to build around that might more sense; but because Fat Dan isn’t a franchise centerpiece (although he might’ve eaten one) the Cubs should explore trading him early and often. His value won’t necessarily be the highest when ‘he proves he can hit AAA pitching’.

Part of the reason that I included this piece today is exactly this – if the Cubs have the No.8 prospect among MiLB 1B and if it’s fairly obvious that he doesn’t have a position in the NL…they need to explore trading him early and often; cashing in on a guy who you don’t plan to build around is one of the ways we can quickly restock with talent. It’s a big reason that trading a guy like Chirinos was possible…even though the whole build around Soto thing didn’t pan out too well either. Part with Fat Dan at the peak of his value – and his peak might be right before everyone else figures out he’s destined to be a DH.
YUCottonPickin

So if Vogelbach wasn’t fat, you would feel better that he could play another position? And that you would advocate moving him somewhere else so that he can play everyday when he makes it to the show?
Chuck

I am not saying he has no value. I am saying that we don’t have to worry about things like “Where should we move Rizzo to make room for him?” until there is a reason to worry about such things.
Jedi

No CAPS…his weight is what has prevented him from fielding a position. But I don’t think you take a guy, lop off 80lbs or more (because even a ‘slimmed down’ 2013 Fat Dan still rates as obese-he still has some losing to do) to get him to a ‘normal’ weight and fling a couple of Tom Emanski videos at him, hit some extra fungoes during BP, and magically you have a defender. Look at a guy who actually one was athletic (Soriano) and all the trouble he had learning different positions. It’s just not an easy thing to do. It’s why guys like DeRosa are so valuable when they can do even a moderate amount of hitting. It’s not beer league softball.
Jedi

I was merely responding to this – “any conversation of what to do with Voglebach should wait until he proves he can hit AAA pitching, at the earliest..”
Dusty Baylor

We’re not saying he’ll magically become a gold glove defender. We’re saying that MAYBE…just maybe…by
-losing weight
-working with Cubs coaches
..he might improve his infield defense, and become a passable first baseman. We’re not talking about pulling some fat idiot off the street and doing this, we’re talking about a 20 year old 2nd round pick, who even playing his first season in the minors at 290 lbs or so, hit the heck out of the ball. So if he can get to 230-240 lbs, who’s to say what he’ll be able to achieve with hard work and the proper instructions from the Cubs?
Dusty Baylor

Also, let’s point point out that Chirinos was nowhere near a prospect until he repeated a level or 2..at age 26-27.
Vogelbach is 20.
Dusty Baylor

excuse me, age 24..sorry
Eddie Von White

How does a 20 year old fat kid who can’t field even make it to the minor leagues in the first place? He must have some redeeming value. No?
Dusty Baylor

Nope..he’s got no hand-eye coordination, and no hope of ever getting any better at the plate, or in the field. He is what is is, and can’t ever get any better.
Jedi

You’re really intent on being as preposterous as you can be here huh? Inserting gold glove above…stay reasonable, my friend.
Jedi

It’s not that he doesn’t have redeeming value – by all accounts he can absolutely rake. The problem is he can’t field worth a lick, which means he’ll have difficulty being a long-term solution in the NL. Truly bad defenders are big liabilities. On a team with a DH, Fat Dan is a hero. On a team with no DH, Fat Dan is a late game defensive replacement waiting to happen. He’d have to be a future HOFer just for his offense to get an NL team to invest in him long-term unless he can magically figure out how to field a position at the MLB level. I’m sure he’s a great kid, but he’s destined for the AL.
Jedi

Never said gold glove, I have a low standard for what would be acceptable; I don’t anticipate him meeting it. Maybe we’ll still be so bad it won’t matter…but I never said gold glove, you need to be a little more honest with your argument.
YUCottonPickin

Why don’t you have faith that he can be the next coming of Prince Fielder?
Norm Bothwell

What a thread.
Vogelbach is likely a DH…but of course there is a “chance” he’s not a liability….anything can happen.
Just 12 months ago, not too many people thought Jeff Samardzija could possibly turn into a top 60 pitcher (which would make him a #2 in some people’s definitions)

-
Jedi, Tom Tango is now exclusively consulting for the Cubs…just thought you’d want to know.
Dusty Baylor

Um…ok.
I was merely stating, that we’re not expecting Vogelbach to become a great defender. He may not even become a good defender. However, you’d be surprised at what losing that kind of weight can do for someone with some athletic ability. Give him another season or 2 with the Cubs strength and condition coaches, and let’s see what happens. Honestly, I hope it’s never an issue..because Rizzo is so good, there’s no room for Vogelbach. But to just write him off at age 20?
This has been my argument the whole time.
Buddy

The Tigers get Victor Martinez back at DH, and they have a fleet of outfielders. Can’t imagine them trading for Skates Soriano.
Dusty Baylor

Please note where I said “he may become a passable defender.” That has been the point I’ve tried to make. He might not become a passable defender, but he might. He’s not a 26 year old, 3rd year at AAA guy. He’s 20, and this will be his first full season in the minors.
Let’s not just write him off yet?
HLCBSL691

Who should they get then for that final piece? Thome? Because used in the right role, Thome can still be the final piece for a playoff team
Cap’n obvious

You mean once Soriano makes the obvious move to 3rd.
Cap’n obvious

But can Jarod hit 60 mph four-seamers out of a machine?
Cap’n obvious

The kid reminds me an awful lot of Bob Hamelin. I seriously doubt that Vogelbach, similarly to Hamelin, will ever be athletic enough to be an everyday defender in the majors. Sabermetric fans can, I’m sure, cook up a new #GB’sbooted>>>big_mac$$$outthewindow metric to establish his defensive atrociousness.

And I’d say, yes, no amount of coaching will make Engleberg anything but the fat kid.
Seymour Butts

I’m not sure how many of you have seen fat Dan play in person, but I have. The dude can hit, but can’t field. The only caveat to his eventual status is IF he loses said kindergardener, he may be able to see things he hasn’t in years (feet) and reach things he hasn’t in years (the ground).
Jedi

And you think Bears’ fans are dumb.
Tyler6972

I really like the website. Great news and more. If you could please check out my blog at http://www.Chicagocubstalk.blogspot.com it would be much appreciated!
Jedi

How does that work with HR, does he have to reveal his true name to them? Or can he get paid with his pseudonym? And if HR knows, does Theo? Or do Theo and Jed have to use intermediaries to get at him? These are the important details.
http://swantron.com/ jswanson

If Vogelbach is Engelbert, Tony Campana is the little guy who tells the Yankees to stick their trophy up their ass.
HLCBSL691

Those are the White Sox-Bears fans who are dumb. There are a lot more White Sox-Bears fans than there are Cubs-Bears fans.
HLCBSL691

Who is Tom Tango?
http://swantron.com/ jswanson

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=tom+tango
Jedi

*very slow claps*
Tyler Brown

Vogelbach will most likely end up being traded. read the article about him and some other prospects at http://www.Chicagocubstalk.blogspot.com…News, rumors, and more!!!
Tyler Brown

Think he will be more of a trade bait player than anything
Jedi

Not cool.
Norm Bothwell

He’s the guy I invited to come talk to Jedi to have an intelligent conversation about some metrics….but don’t think Jedi was up for a discussion.
Jedi

I would’ve done it, but I’d already been cleared and claimed off of waivers. What’s that? You can’t be both?
Joe Aiello

You don’t trade a guy because he’s blocked at his position when he’s still 3-4 years before being ready. Develop him and see what happens.
HLCBSL691

And what if he hits enough to make it to the show? When do you start playing him at another position so we can get his stick in the lineup?
Jedi

No, but you might trade a guy because his position isn’t part of your league.
Joe Aiello

The thing that makes me laugh is everyone talks about Vogelbach as if they know exactly what he will be. The fact is, we’ve never seen the kid play. Give him time and see what happens.

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