View From The Bleachers

December 5, 2012

Morning News: Cubs Rumors

Filed under: Featured,General,Stat of the Week — Joe Aiello @ 4:00 am

Top Stories

  • Apparently the Cubs are interested in some non-tender names. – Looking at the list, I’d be interesting in at least kicking the tires and seeing what the cost is on Jair Jurrjens, John Lannan, and Ian Stewart. You may remember that Jurrjens was a name that was rumored to be coming to Chicago in the deal for Ryan Dempster, so there may be smoke there.
  • Rumors that Cubs are also looking at Brandon McCarthy as well. – We already signed the poor man’s McCarthy in Scott Feldman, so why not sign the rich man’s McCarthy as well, right?
  • Odd story on Cubs.com about how Dale Svuem has spent his winter vacation so far. Apparently he decided to go out and get himself shot.
  • Yesterday was the 10 year anniversary of a great trade in Cubs history. Chris Jaffe of the Hardball Times has the story.

Stat of the Week

by John Dewan

Most of the public discussion of ballpark effects is of the extremes. We know that Coors Field in Colorado sees a lot of home runs because of the altitude and we know that Safeco Field in Seattle and PETCO Park in San Diego see fewer home runs because of their dimensions. The perception of those bookends is correct, but it is not comprehensive. They are not the only parks that have dramatic effects on the run environment.

We measure park factors in indices that compare statistics compiled by both teams in a specific home park and then in all other parks. If a park has an index of 110 in home runs, for example, it allows 10 percent more home runs than average. If a park has an index of 90 in home runs, it allows 10 percent fewer home runs than average. The Bill James Handbook 2013 has a variety of park indices for all 30 teams. Let’s look at a few interesting examples.

Here are the most hitter-friendly ballparks since 2010:

Park

Runs Index

Rockies (Coors Field)

143

Rangers (Rangers Ballpark in Arlington)

122

Red Sox (Fenway Park)

115

White Sox (U.S. Cellular Field)

113

Diamondbacks (Chase Field)

112

Yankees (Yankee Stadium)

110

It is little surprise to see Coors Field on top of the list for runs. Colorado sees 21 percent more runs than the next closest park, which is Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. The rest of the list is less differentiated and features a pair of AL East venues, Fenway Park in Boston and Yankee Stadium in New York, as well as U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago and Chase Field in Arizona.

Here are the parks that have allowed the most home runs since 2010:

Park

Home Runs Index

Rockies (Coors Field)

138

White Sox (U.S. Cellular Field)

138

Reds (Great American Ballpark)

134

Brewers (Miller Park)

129

Yankees (Yankee Stadium)

128

Rangers (Rangers Ballpark in Arlington)

124

Home runs are a large part of the high overall run environment in Colorado, but Coors Field is not the only park to play to that extreme. In fact, U.S. Cellular Field has been its equal in home runs for the past three years, with both parks surrendering 38 percent more home runs than average. A couple of NL Central parks, Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati and Miller Park in Milwaukee, are close behind. Yankee Stadium and Rangers Ballpark in Arlington round out the top-six.

Here are parks that have allowed the fewest foul outs since 2010:

Park

Foul Outs Index

Rockies (Coors Field)

77

Red Sox (Fenway Park)

78

Angels (Angel Stadium of Anaheim)

79

Rangers (Rangers Ballpark in Arlington)

83

Cubs (Wrigley Field)

83

Giants (AT&T Park)

86

Royals (Kauffman Stadium)

86

New to The Bill James Handbook 2013 is the Foul Outs Index, which generally corresponds to those parks that have the least and the most foul ground in which to convert extra outs on foul popups and flyballs. Once again, Coors Field is on top. Home runs and foul outs represent two of the three biggest hitter advantages in Colorado by percentage, with triples being the third. Fenway Park is famous for having stands up against the foul lines, but Angel Stadium of Anaheim is not much roomier. Rangers Ballpark in Arlington and Wrigley Field in Chicago are tied for fourth-friendliest for hitters, and AT&T Park in San Francisco and Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City are tied for sixth-friendliest.

Here are the most pitcher-friendly ballparks since 2010:

Park

Runs Index

Mariners (Safeco Field)

78

Giants (AT&T Park)

80

Rays (Tropicana Field)

83

Angels (Angel Stadium of Anaheim)

84

Padres (PETCO Park)

85

Mets (Citi Field 2012)

87

On the other end of the spectrum, Safeco Field allows the fewest runs in baseball. Seattle, San Francisco, and San Diego were the easy guesses on the list. Tropicana Field and Angels Stadium of Anaheim are lesser known as pitchers parks, and yet both have been more pitcher-friendly than even PETCO Park. The Index for Citi Field includes just the numbers from 2012, after they moved in the fences. Surprisingly, the run environment became more depressed after the changes despite the increase in home runs. From 2009 to 2011, Citi Field had a Runs Index of 91 and a Home Runs Index of 83. In 2012, Citi Field had a Runs Index of 87 but a Home Runs Index of 109. We like to look at three years of data to get a handle on a park’s true tendencies. This drop in the Run Index at Citi Field may be a one-year aberration.

Here are parks that have allowed the fewest home runs since 2010:

Park

Home Runs Index

Giants (AT&T Ballpark)

69

Marlins (Marlins Park)

73

Mariners (Safeco Field)

75

Pirates (PNC Park)

75

Padres (PETCO Park)

77

Angels (Angel Stadium of Anaheim)

80

Athletics (O.co Coliseum)

80

Marlins Park opened in 2012 and fell short of only AT&T Ballpark in home run prevention. The old Sun Life Stadium was much closer to neutral with a Home Run Index of 94 from 2009 to 2011. One wonders how many home runs that could cost Giancarlo Stanton over his career. Safeco Field, PETCO Park, and Angel Stadium of Anaheim make this list, as well. PNC Park in Pittsburgh and O.co Coliseum in Oakland tie for third and sixth, respectively.

Here are parks that have allowed the most foul outs since 2010:

Park

Foul Outs Index

Rays (Tropicana Field)

139

Athletics (O.co Coliseum)

136

Tigers (Comerica Park)

121

Mariners (Safeco Field)

120

White Sox (U.S. Cellular Field)

118

Cardinals (Busch Stadium)

111

Finally, Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay and O.co Coliseum in Oakland are the clear leaders in foul outs allowed. They allow 39 percent and 36 percent more foul outs than average. No other ballpark exceeds the 21 percent of Comerica Park in Detroit. List frequenter Safeco Field is just behind with an index of 120. U.S. Cellular Field is next, and Busch Stadium in St. Louis rounds out the list as the only NL park with a Foul Outs Index greater than 10 percent above average.

These and many other park indices for all parks can be found in The Bill James Handbook 2013.

Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week®, www.statoftheweek.com.

Joe’s iPod Song of the Day

Like what you see here? Never miss new content. Follow Us:
Share

Joe Aiello is the founder of View From the Bleachers and one of the lead writers. Growing up in Chicago, he fondly remembers attending games in the bleachers before that was the popular thing to do. Currently Joe resides in North Carolina with his wife and three kids and helps people protect their assets as an independent insurance agent. Connect with Joe via Twitter / Facebook / E-mail

  • mrbaseball2usa

    I like bringing in Jair… Still gas left in that tank. I also like the idea of bringing Ian back to play 3B. I honestly believe he hasn’t been healthy, and I see huge potential rewards if his wrist surgery gets him back to his rookie form. I see a bargain here at best, and at worst, he has GOT to be better than Yuneski B.

    Go CUBS!

  • Norm Bothwell

     I don’t think there’s any gas left in Jurrjens.
    He’s went from a 92 mph fastball to 88.
    Minor league deal? Sure.

  • Noah_I

    Yeah, a Jurrjens deal would have to be a minor league, let’s try and get you healthy kind of deal akin to when the Cubs brought Dempster in.  

    Honestly, of the non-tenders the ones I’d probably be most interested in are Lannan and Gorzelanny, who would be willing to sign into a swingman type of role and could provide another LHP out of the pen as well as start some games.

    Jack Hannahan could also be an option at 3B if the Cubs can’t get anything done with Stewart.  He hits for no power, but will at least take a walk and plays solid defense.

  • http://swantron.com/ jswanson

    Betancourt, Vitters, and Stewart are all viable options to hold Valbuena’s jock strap.  He has Sveum’s endorsement…pretty sure third is his to lose still.  

  • Seymour Butts

    I had no idea Sveum even knew Dick Cheney.

  • http://www.facebook.com/mark.strickler.73 Mark Strickler

     I wouldn’t put the two in the same sentence. Besides Sveum was the shootee not the shooter.

  • Darth Vader

    He doesn’t. I’d have got him in the face.

  • http://swantron.com/ jswanson

    Who here likes flying?  What’s the deal with airline food?  

  • Cap’n obvious

    My best friends sisters boyfriends brothers girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who’s going with a girl that saw Svuem, Theo, Jed, and obviously Hendry at the 31 flavors trying to work a deal for Bryce Harper and Mike Trout in exchange for Jurrgens and prospects. Svuem looked like he’d been shot. Hendry looked like he’d lost weight.

    That’s what I think of trade rumors.

  • Buddy

    I sure hope not. I’ve seen enough rotten Valbuena at bats to last five life times.

  • Gymjok

    Well Joe, another piece has been added to your outfield question.
    Cubs signed Nate Schierholtz and it’s a major league contract.
    I guess that means DeJesus is now in center unless he or Soriano gets traded.

  • http://swantron.com/ jswanson

    Also, we snagged Cleveland’s #7 prospect in the Rule 5.  Actual baseball stuff to report today.  

  • Seymour Butts

    Cubs also lose 4 farm hands in same draft.

  • Gymjok

    Wow that must be one powerful draft.
    That’s got to be what, at least 150 mph to lose a hand? 

  • Cubs Future

    Thank goodness no Hannahan.  The way things were going he gets non tendered but in free agency looking for a multi year deal.  Keppinger gets 3 year 12 Mil and the cubs were even looking at Betancourt.  Ouch.  I was hoping for Stewart coming back.  He still has to prove things in ST or not guaranteed contract.  Jurrigens sure on a minor league deal.  Others interested in as well, but hard to take on so many players looking to rebuild.  Now if Garza gets traded or can get some to minor league deals with incentives upon reaching the majors, then fine.

  • Cubs Future

     Hard to say with him as has hardly pitched over past couple of years.  Obviously he has to be on the major league roster and if he can regain anything from before, he could be effective.  Sounds like Grilli has backed off his request for 3 years.  As it is, looks like the Cubs are going to have to cut a man from the 40 man roster unless trading someone for prospects soon.  Probably going to be Campana.

Powered by WordPress