Re-Evaluating the Garza Trade

We’re inching toward the trade deadline and the rumors surrounding Matt Garza being traded are heating up. With that in mind, let’s take a quick look back at the deal that brought Matt here to begin with now that it’s a year and a half in the books.

January 8, 2011: Matt Garza traded by the Tampa Bay Rays with Zach Rosscup (minors) and Fernando Perez to the Chicago Cubs for Hak-Ju Lee (minors), Chris Archer, Robinson Chirinos, Sam Fuld and Brandon Guyer.

CUBS RECEIVE

Matt Garza – He’s been really good at times, but it’s hard to really evaluate how good he could have been last year considering how bad the team has been. Fielding has been an issue for him, but overall his 2011 season was a better than the 2o10 season with the Rays that got him dealt and his value should be about the same as we paid for him. The positive is that with the new wild card rules, there are a lot more teams that still feel they have a shot, so it’s definitely a seller’s market. – Total Wins Above Replacement (WAR) = 2.9

Zach Rosscup – He was a throw in player in the deal and looked decent in Daytona last year. He’s tossed a couple innings this year and, if I’m not mistaken, was released ealier in the year. – Total WAR = 0

Fernando Perez- There was talk that he would be the 5th outfielder coming out of spring training last year, but was beaten out by Reed Johnson. He was sent to Iowa, sucked there too and was released. The Mets signed him, sent him to AAA and he sucked even worse. It’s probably for the best that he’s out of baseball because he has a lot of talent in other areas, like writing. That should be his focus. – Total WAR = 0

RAYS RECEIVE

Brandon Guyer – Coming off a monster year in the minors in 2010, Guyer was named the organization’s player of the year. He started the season with the Rays big club and was less than impressive. In 43 plate appearances he finished with a split line of .195 / .214 / .366. He’s seen a couple at bats this year, but that’s been more of the same. At the minor league level, his numbers continue to be acceptable so you begin to wonder if his future is that of a AAAA player or a 5th outfielder at best. – Total WAR = 0.1

Sam Fuld – Ah, the legend of Sam Fuld. I’ve never seen a player reap more benefits from a crazy catch than Fuld did after the catch and subsequent throw back to the infield for a double play late in the year as a September call up. A lot of people were pretty disappointed to see Fuld included in the deal as if we were losing an impact bat. He made a quick impact with the Rays, especially in the field, but gradually regressed to what he is…a bench player at best. – Total WAR = 1.9

Robinson Chirinos – The Rays felt like Chirinos could be their backup catcher at worst and perhaps a starting catcher at worst. Instead what they got was a guy who was in the minors as long as he was for a reason. He’s just not very good. He saw action last year but wasn’t anything to write home about. He’s not played this season, which leads me to believe he’s out of baseball. – Total WAR = 0.2

Chris Archer – This was the gem of the deal. This was the arm that was supposed to continue to add to the Rays stellar collection of young arms. Archer was recently called up to the Majors in June to make his debut. He’s made two starts to date and has been average. There is a still a lot of upside when it comes to his potential, so it’s tough to evaluate at this point. How he and Hak-Ju Lee perform will determine who wins this deal. The Rays are gambling that they can get more value from the two of them than they would have gotten from Garza and they may be right. – Total WAR = -0.1

Hak-Ju Lee – Starlin Castro and Lee were projected to be the middle infield of the future. In fact, Lee was supposed to be the one to push Castro to second base due to his fielding. Instead he’s playing in AA for Montgomery and playing OK. He’s not great, though he’s not projected to be a power guy. – Total WAR = 0

CONCLUSION

At this point, the scoreboard for the trade looks like this:

Cubs – 2.9 Wins above Replacement

Rays – 2.1 Wins above Replacement

How that plays out is anyone’s guess.

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As an added bonus, the trade cleared a roster path for Clevenger, Shark, and Katie’s tiny fiance.
Noah_I

Chirinos is on the 60 day DL due to lingering concussion symptoms.
Joe Aiello

Gotcha…..still sucks
Noah_I

LOL. Well, I don’t know if that can really be determined based on 60 Major League PAs, although there are other signs of concern: (1) his offense dropped drastically when he moved from the PCL with the I-Cubs to Durham in the IL; and (2) offense first catchers generally make me nervous. But yeah, Chirinos is older, and essentially got a second crack at the minors when he converted to catcher. He was much more successful the second time through than the first.
Chuck

I would still rather have one good player than a few mediocre players.
Timothy Scarbrough

I feel like we might be turning that one good player back into a few mediocre prospects.
Buddy

Loved the Garza trade at the time, and I haven’t changed my mind.
charley

Zach Rosscup is on the Peoria roster. He threw 1.2 innings for the Arizona Cubs and so far has only thrown 4.1 for the Chiefs. Although he has thrown 11 k and only given up 2 hits 0BB and 0 runs.
Kizzfastfists

I won’t be surprised if Lee and Archer both end up having better careers then Garza. It was a bad trade at the time as the Cubs were horrible and giving up two high-ceiling prospects for a solid starter did nothing good for the team. The real question about this trade is what do the Cubs end up getting for Garza and is it more then what they gave up? If the Cubs can get Jacob Turner or another pitcher with a higher ceiling then Garza along with other solid prospects then it will end up being a good trade. If the Cubs end up getting less then what they gave up it will continue to be a bad deal.

The grade right now is incomplete. Garza will never play for a relevant Cub team and unless he brings back pieces that speed up the Cubs return to relevance they should have stayed put and rolled the dice with Archer and Lee.
wisconsinjpc

With Dempster (apparently) on the block, the only question about keeping Garza should be, “Is he the staff ace to build the team around?” My answer is no. He might be a decent 2 and great 3, but I just don’t see him as a dominant starting pitcher. Looking back, it’s easy to call this trade a loss for the Cubs. WAR doesn’t really explain value when you look at where the teams are and what they’re trying to do today (really, what’s 2.9 wins between a broken, dispirited fan base and a farm system bereft of pitching talent?). Garza doesn’t really fit with the Cubs’ long-term plans, and we probably won’t get back for him what we paid (though one can always hope). Seems to me we gave away our last stock from the pitching cupboard in exchange for a 2-year rental.
BLPCB

What are their WAR’s?
Dusty Baylor

Hi. Where do you get your crack?
Dusty Baylor

Ok. Now non-sarcastically: Archer has had a ton of control issues, Lee is struggling in AA with a .264/.325/.371 in AA, and was blocked by Castro, Chirinos is a throw in, Fuld was a throw in, and Guyer is probably a good 4th OF type.
Garza is only 56-60..but with a career 3.85 ERA, and an ERA+ of 108.
Let’s wait and see if Archer gets a full time job for a season?
Dusty Baylor

Again, we have a 28 year old pitcher who has been healthy his whole career….who can be dominating at times, but is most likely a solid #2. We gave up:
A SS who is struggling in AA, an OF who is a 5th OF type, an OF who is a 4th OF type, a catcher who couldn’t hit in the minors until he was 27, and a pitcher who may get another shot in Tampa Bay, or may not….who struggled with control every year but 1 in the minors. I think Archer might pan out, but calling the trade a loss? How exactly? Who of those guys would be on the Cubs in 2012, except Archer?
Doc Raker

I agree, we will now try and trade Garza to get a Chris Archer in return. Garza was done on the Hendry regime and if Thed thinks he needs to undo it then make the trade. We are trying to make the team better for 2014, restocking the farm system for the future big club is more important than holding on to an expensive starter right now.
Dusty Baylor

If the Cubs can get a pair of Chris Archers, and maybe another decent prospect then sure I can see trading Garza. Otherwise, with the $$ coming off the books after this year and next, having at least 1 solid veteran starter isn’t such a bad idea. If Samardzija and Wood keep improving, a rotation of Garza, The Ninja, Wood, and two others…isn’t so bad a building block is it?
Kizzfastfists

2012 is irrelevant. The question is which would be contributing the most in 2015. The Cubs will not be relevant again until 2015 and at that point Archer and Hak-Ju Lee is probably worth more then Garza. However, we do not know that. If Garza gets traded again the question then becomes who has more value between the players traded away and the players acquired in 2015 and beyond.

The only thing we know for certain is Hendry making the trade because thought it would make last year’s team competitive was a failure. That team had no chance to compete so Hendry made a move that offered no long-term upside, but gave up high upside prospects. If Garza is still with the Cubs at age 31, when the Cubs could be relevant again, then we will have to see how Garza is pitching at that time compared to two players in Archer and Lee who will still be under the age of 25.
Dusty Baylor

Valid point. I just question the gnashing of teeth over Archer or Lee currently, last year, or until 2015. If the Cubs are a better team iin 2015, I won’t care about those two..at all.

Re-Evaluating the Garza Trade

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