Stat of the Week: A New Pitching Stat
Last week, we evaluated the definition of a Quality Start and concluded that, while still useful, it is seriously flawed. This week, we’re going to introduce an alternative: Gem.
In the baseball vernacular, broadcasters and writers use the term “Gem” regularly to describe a pitching masterpiece: “Felix Hernandez pitched a gem last night in the Mariners’ 2-1 victory over the Tigers.” Bill James took that term and gave it a definition. The end result is an improvement on Quality Start and a way to highlight the best pitching performances.
A Gem is a game in which the starting pitcher earns a Game Score of at least 65 or throws six or more innings of shutout baseball. For the mathematically inclined, we’ll go over the definition of Game Score at the end of the Stat of the Week, but first let’s show some examples of what a 65 looks like. Shaun Marcum earned a Game Score of exactly 65 in his start last Tuesday against the Mets. He went 6.0 innings, struck out one and allowed two hits, no earned runs, and four walks. Kyle Kendrick’s start against the Braves on May 7 also earned a Game Score of exactly 65. He threw 5.0 innings, struck out three and allowed two hits, no earned runs and one walk. Both of those games qualify as gems, albeit at the lowest end of the Game Score spectrum.
On the higher end of the spectrum is Justin Verlander’s no-hitter earlier this year. On May 7 against the Blue Jays, he went the distance with no hits, no runs, a walk and four strikeouts. His performance earned a game score of 90, but that was not the top pitching performance of 2011. Here are the top Gems of the season:
|Top Five Gems of the 2011 Season|
In a Major League season there are 2,420 games. Over the last ten years there have been an average of over 2,300 Quality Starts per year. That’s almost one per game. There are about 1,000 Gems per year. Just under 50 percent of MLB games are a Gem.
|Gems and Quality Starts – Last 10 Years
Through June 12, 2011
|Team Winning Percentage in a Quality Start||.679|
|Team Winning Percentage in a Gem||.815|
Teams win two-thirds of the time when the pitcher has a Quality Start, but while there are fewer Gems, the winning percentage is much higher at .815. As we saw last week, when a pitcher throws a Quality Start of eight innings or fewer with exactly three earned runs, the team winning percentage is only .500. While there aren’t that many Gems with three earned runs, the winning percentage in the 164 games over the last ten years is .689.
The 2011 leaders in Quality Starts and Gems are:
|Quality Start Leaders||Gem Leaders|
|Pitcher, Team||Quality Starts||Pitcher, Team||Gems|
|Justin Verlander, Tigers||13||Justin Verlander, Tigers||9|
|Jered Weaver, Angels||12||Shaun Marcum, Brewers||8|
|Roy Halladay, Phillies||12||Roy Halladay, Phillies||8|
|Cole Hamels, Phillies||11||Randy Wolf, Brewers||7|
|Dan Haren, Angels||11||Jered Weaver, Angels||7|
|Jair Jurrjens, Braves||11||Felix Hernandez, Mariners||7|
|James Shields, Rays||11||Cole Hamels, Phillies||7|
For more on Gems, visit BillJamesOnline.com.
Below is the formula for Game Score, the foundation for Gems, and here is the link for the Wikipedia article on Game Score.
Start with 50.
Add 1 point for each out recorded by the starting pitcher.
Add 2 points for each inning the pitcher completes after the fourth inning.
Add 1 point for each strikeout.
Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
Subtract 2 points for an unearned run.
Subtract 1 point for each walk.
The 12-point penalty for allowing three earned runs reduces the chance that a pitcher can reach a game score of 65, the benchmark for a gem. As I said last week, only allowing three earned runs keeps the team in the game, but it is far from the quality suggested by the term Quality Stat. Gems are a much better way of recognizing superb pitching performances.
Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week®, www.statoftheweek.com.”