Archive for May, 2009

Let's face it peoples

Thursday, May 21st, 2009

Joe will likely offer a more analytical article soon about tonight’s Cubs game. What I want to comment upon now is the fact that we haven’t looked too good recently but all is not lost. It isn’t even June first and the Cubs are within four games of first. Are we playing good ball? Of course not, it’s been a while since I’ve seen an offense as anemic as this one. Three runs in twenty-seven innings in a crucial series is nothing less than under whelming. Our offense isn’t even going through the motions, it’s sleep-walking.

So what should be done? Should Uncle Lou throw a hissy-fit and get tossed tomorrow? Might not hurt but methinks more concrete actions should be taken. Right now we need bats. What I’d like to see is as follows:

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  1. Bring Jake Fox up immediately and demote Fontenot or Scales
  2. Hoff should be substituted for Bradley for a few games and Lee for one or two
  3. Hill for Soto until results prove otherwise
  4. The Cubs should get a deal done for DeRosa. Miles/Fontenot/Scales/Freel ain’t getting it done at third and super-sub and moves should be made.

Now I’m sure that there will be lots of people that don’t agree with my specific causes of action, anybody can disagree. But what concrete steps do you as readers think should be taken? What would you do if you had the reins for the team?

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About Last Night: On the Farm

Thursday, May 21st, 2009

Tennessee 2, Chattanooga 0 – (Box Score

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Star of the Game – Casey Lambert

(SP) 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K. He hasn’t allowed an earned run in either of his last two starts and now has an ERA of 1.91 as a starter. He also went 1-for-3 at the plate.

Forgettable Performance of the Game – Ty Wright

and Steven Clevenger Silent Venom movie full both went 0-for-4 with a K.

Peoria 2, West Michigan 6 The Accidental Husband Body Bags hd – (Box Score)

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Star of the Game Changing Lanes divx Josh Harrison was 3-for-3 with three doubles, a walk and a run scored. The three-hit day raised his already league-leading average to .386.

Forgettable Performance of the Game – Chris Siegfried hit two batters and gave up a run in his two innings of relief. His ERA is now up over 6 at a forgettable 6.23. Considering it’s his third year in Peoria and he’s 23, I think it’s time to start having some success or he could find himself out of a job very soon.

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Sources: Peavy to White Sox deal awaits his OK

Thursday, May 21st, 2009

Sources: Peavy to White Sox deal awaits his OK Ruthless People

Dog Soldiers rip

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Is Derrek Lee really declining?

Wednesday, May 20th, 2009

Many people, especially here at VFTB, do not like Derrek Lee. They think that he is declining, they think that he isn’t as good as Micah Hoffpauir (or even Jake Fox), they think he should he traded, they think he should just be released, etc.

But the overall trend in the posts and comments here are that Derrek Lee is on a downward spiral, so I decided to take a look.

I looked at the following numbers, after taking out any season where he didn’t see 500 plate appearances, including this season.

1998 0.323 0.292 2.3 4.4 96
2000 0.372 0.291 4.1 6.4 124
2001 0.351 0.284 4.7 5.6 112
2002 0.375 0.306 5 6.6 131
2003 0.381 0.308 6.54 7.1 131
2004 0.367 0.285 4.3 6.3 117
2005 0.446 0.344 7.4 10.7 174
2007 0.391 0.299 4.9 7.6 131
2008 0.360 0.279 5.2 5.6 110

And here is the above data in graph form so that we can easily look at what kind of trends exists in Lee’s performance:

Interesting… what I see is a huge outlier in 2005, and other than a pretty steady performance trend. So lets take out the 2005 season, and see what we get:

Now the picture becomes a little more clear. As we take out his injured years and partial seasons, and his obvious outlier year of 2005, we see a fairly consistent and obvious trend of similar performances each year.

Now I already know that people will complain that I left out his numbers this year. And Derrek Lee has obviously struggled this year, so much so that his numbers this year look like as much of an outlier as his numbers in 2005 did, but in the opposite direction. Derrek Lee currently has 103 plate appearances this season, so the first obvious caveat when looking at his 2009 numbers is that we are still looking at a small sample size. The second obvious caveat is that he is and has been battling a back injury. The back injury, to me, is much more concerning than any alleged “downward trend.” But if Derrek Lee can get and stay healthy, I expect him to continue to produce at a similar level as has in the rest of his career.

Of course, there is one more thing to look at concerning Lee’s 2009 season so far. He currently is sporting a .263 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). This is low, and is almost assuredly not sustainable when you look at the rest of his career. The average BABIP in baseball hovers around .300, but Lee’s career BABIP is .325. Basically this means that has been significantly less “lucky” than he has been over his career, and that you can expect this number to regress (or in this case… progress) to the mean. When it does, we can also expect Lee’s overall number to “progress” to the mean.

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Mark DeRosa available?

Wednesday, May 20th, 2009

John Heyman of Sports Illustrated

reports that Cleveland has DeRosa on the market; allegedly they’re looking for pitching in return.

I’d like to see the Cubs jump all over this; despite DeRosa’s mediocre 2009 numbers I’d say he’s worth parting with a decent minor league pitcher. DeRo is a free agent after this year and I’d bet his numbers would jump if he returned to the Cubs dugout. He’d be a good guy to give a $6M/2 year extension to as well, solid insurance at third in the event that Ramirez doesn’t stay healthy and we all know he can play corner OF and 2B well too. What do y’all think?

On an unrelated note, Iowa outfielder Brad Snyder fractured his wrist and will likely miss 2-3 months, perhaps more. It’s a shame because he was hitting .312 with 12 homers and would have been a nice insurance policy for our corner outfield players.

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