The Chicago Tribune had a poll up Sunday asking which Cubs collapse broke your heart the most. Honestly, I’d have to rank it, and this is only in my lifetime, the 2003 team, the 1984 team, and then this 2008 team. After the 2003 meltdown, I was literally numb for about two weeks. Mountain Dew wasn’t as sweet, Snickers bars weren’t as nougaty, and Old Style still tasted like crap. I believe when, or should I say if, the Cubs win the whole shabang, Old Style will be as fine as a vintage champagne. Yeah, who am I kidding. I didn’t even watch Game 3 on Saturday evening. I was done, the Cubs were done, and to listen to Dick Stockton one more evening would of driven me to the heights of insanity. I had lost my heart in Cubs baseball, all in a matter of four days.
When Joe asked about each of us doing a “what do they do for next year” post, I actually had no ideas. On paper, and for most of the season, I saw nothing glaringly wrong with the team as it was. They needed a centerfielder, Jim Hendry grabbed Reed Johnson, and later Jim Edmonds. A starter to help fend off the Brewers, he traded for Rich Harden. What else could you ask for? Maybe a little bullpen help, but most of the time they were fine. Do you really make a major change with a team that just won back to back NL Central titles? I don’t think so, much to the chagrin of all some of you that want major changes. My bigger gripe about the team’s failure in the post season. Management. Why in god’s name did Lou reinsert Kosuke Fukudome into the lineup? Better yet, why did he bat him second? Why would you mess with a lineup that you’ve stuck with almost the whole year, and change it for the biggest series of the year? Blame the offense all you want, I blame Lou just as much. He tinkered when it wasn’t necessary.
Here’s my realistic ideas:
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Re-sign Reed Johnson. Platoon him with Pie in centerfield.
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Make Mark DeRosa your everyday right fielder. Put Mike Fontenot in as your second baseman. You’ll get two good bats in the lineup, and a lefty which is sorely needed in the right handed heavy Cubs lineup. You lose some defense in right, but after this year, they need to reward Mark with an everyday position, not as a super sub. If necessary, go sign a Felipe Lopez, utility type player to fill the super sub role.
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Kosuke Fukudome heads to Iowa to learn American styled hitting and pitching. The Mets did it with Kaz Matsui, maybe it’s Kosuke’s time. He’s in Lou’s doghouse as it is, I don’t see this ending well, any way you slice it.
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Micah Hoffpauir becomes the pinch hitter. He’s no worse defensively than Ward. And cheaper.
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Re-sign Dempster and Wood. With the NLDS loss, they may take a hit in salary to see if they can get the job done, like they should have this year.
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Sign Jeremy Affledt to strenghten up the middle relief, and give Lou another lefty in the pen.
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Resign Hank White. He’s a great mentor to Geo, and is one of the few people that can probably keep Zambrano under control.
And of course, some pie in the sky ideas:
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Don’t resign Dempster. Make a serious run at CC Sabathia. Heck, sign Dempster, then go get Sabathia. Get us a dominating scary #1 pitcher.
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Go balls out, and sign Manny Ramirez. Move Soriano to right field. Again, Fukudome gets to check out the cornfields of Iowa for awhile.
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Trade for Robinson Cano. The Yankees are looking for pitching and a centerfielder. We seem to have both of those. If you trade Pie, you resign Edmonds. I think a full Spring Training will benefit him. He became a clubhouse leader, from what I’ve been told, the day he arrived.
I’ll be honest. I’d be very happy to see the same team next year, with a tweak or two. Hendry’s close, and I think this team is going to be hungry next year. Really hungry. Not to mention, the free agent crop is below average, and most of them are past their twilight years. I’m not sure it’d be worth the risk. Of course, I see a nice young power pitching right hander is available. Mark Prior anyone?
Tags: Carlos Zambrano, CC Sabathia, Jim Edmonds, Mark DeRosa, Reed Johnson, Robinson Cano, Ryan Dempster
Matt: Nice job; a thoughtful analysis. I feel your pain.
I watched Game 3 on Saturday but I, too, couldn’t listen. The alternative soundtrack which I did listen to was somewhat hypnotic and effectively kept a lid on my bubbling emotions during that event. Screw the Extremely Annoying BiCoastal Media Jackals!
On the Fuku front, I’m reminded of the slogan/motto on Iowa’s license plates from a few years back (altered slightly): “Iowa. A Place To Grow……..(Corn)”.
Matt, good sound points. One thing I don’t like is the platoon thing, but that’s only because I don’t feel that a championship team should platoon at a key spot. Also, exposing DeRosa in RF every day might be a drain on him and leave a hole in a key defensive position. The Cubs have the dough, I say sign Dempster and Wood and go for another front line starter. And I wonder why no one is talking about Blanco, I think that guy is a tremendous presence on the bench and as a backup. They should absolutely bring him back. Is Affeldt a FA? If so, shrewd observation, he’d be a huge plus to the pen and an upgrade on Cotts.
I see Harden may be going under the knife so moving Marshall to the rotation now becomes even more important. Also have heard that Lee might be asked to waive his no-trade, and that he would likely only do so for a West Coast deal. The Cubs were interested in Garland last year, so if Teixeira leaves, Angels might be interested. The Cubs might be able build a blockbuster around Lee, Garland and Figgins in some form.
Garland? No thanks… Sean Marshall could do what Garland does, and do it for a LOT less money.
Dave, I agree. But that’s not to say Hendry won’t do it. He inquired about him at the deadline this past summer, and Anaheim would like to move him. Just pointing out that it’s a possibility.
Affeldt is a free agent.
John Garland is also a FA. You don’t have to trade for him, if you like him, just get out your wallet.
I don’t think we need him though. We have enough 3rd starter-types, we need front of the rotation material and he isn’t it.
If we could - a big if (I know there are no-trade clauses that need to be addressed- but what the hell). Move/Remove - DLee (@$13MM), Zambrano (@$16MM), Dempster (@$7MM), Howery (@$4.5MM), Ward(@$1.2MM) and Leiber (@$3.5MM) - potential savings $45MM Add CC Sabathia and Teixeira. I am assuming that we could sign them at around $18- $20MM/year since the benchmark I have heard is the Johan Santana contract which was worth $17MM. We would be basically trading three starters for two. This would give us a premier left handed bat,power hitter, and a good first baseman plus a true #1 pitcher - a real workhorse. My rotation would be CC Sabathia, Harden, Lilly, Marshall, and Marquis. We would also be getting younger at first and slightly younger in the rotation. I could live with DeRosa/FDome in RF and Johnson/Pie in CF. The only thing my idea does not address is our leadoff position. I would be happy with Roberts if we could pull that off as well.
So the Cubs would replace Lee, Zambrano, Dempster and some bench players with CC and Texiera? Really? And this is supposed to make the team better?
And Ward, Lieber and Howry are free agents, and will almost assuredly not be back.
And, FWIW, Texiera is not a “premier left handed bat.” He is a switch hitter.
Matt and Everyone Else,
There is 1 VERY IMPORTANT move the Cubs need to make, and that’s a Left Handed Bat. Mike Fontenot is a Left handed version of Theriot, and Fontenot has a hole in his swing.
If the Cubs were to make only 1 Move this offseason (besides bringing back Wood and Dempster) that would make them much much much better, it would be to pick up Adam Dunn. In the past 5 years, 40+ Homers, 100+ Walks, and an average of 100 RBIs each year. He’s got a .381 Career OBP, and that would make him a good #3 hitter for the Cubs. Move Lee down to 5th.
Bringing back Wood and Dempster is almost a must, and is probably pretty easy for the Cubs to do.
After that, the next priority is to bring in Brian Roberts. And then if Defense is RF is a priority for the Cubs, then they need to find a trade to get rid of Soriano. The money they would free up from Soriano might be enough to cover Dunn’s salary, and then finding a new RF could be much easier. With Dunn in LF, the Cubs could find a cheap RF Left or Right Handed Hitter, who is an above average defender, and can hit 7th or 8th in the order. DeRosa is a below average RF, and with an addition of Roberts, the Cubs should trade DeRosa while his value is high, and besides, DeRosa will be a Free Agent after 2009, and when he walks, you get nothing for him.
And looking at the Orioles, Soriano would be an Upgrade offensively in LF for the Orioles, and with the departure of Roberts they could use a 2B, so maybe Soriano and DeRosa for Roberts is a possibility. Unfortunately I don’t pay any attention to the Orioles during the season, so the Depth Chart I’m looking at may not be telling me the whole story.
2B-Roberts
SS-Theriot
RF-Dunn
3B-Ramirez
1B-Lee
C-Soto
CF-Edmonds?/Johnson
RF-TBNL
Dick Stockton was reason enough to not watch. Loved when he proclaimed Edmonds was “0 for 4 with a single” … and Ron Darling was no better, went on a long diatribe in the early innings with a runner on 1st and 3rd about why the Cubs had to play for the double play to get out of the inning rather than getting a sure out and letting a run score because they’d been so bad with the bats, one run may make all the difference. Except there were already 2 outs. Not saying mistakes can’t be made, but they should have owned up to them. Instead they just talked louder and more forcefully because that must mean you know what you’re talking about.
Matt, I like your plan. I’m not a “clean house” kind of gal, whether we be talking about the cubs or my residence. Love the Hank White reference.
When Adam Dunn hits home runs he’s a joy. Except that he hits em in bunches, just like Soriano. And can do little else. Batting him 3rd will clog the bases and cause you endless grief with 195 ill-times strikeouts. Besides, Soriano is going nowhere. He basically quit running full tilt and demonstrated that he’s a 5th or 6th place hitter at best who can’t play the field very well. Me, I can’t see them winning a World Series platooning at 2 positions. That itself robs you of 2 bench spots in at least half your games, when the opposition bullpen comes into play. Thins out the bench, which was a strength this past season. I agree a tweak is needed, it’s just a huge tweak: front line left hand hitter. This isn’t even talking about replenishing the pitching it will cost you to get that left hand hitter. I still say they should make a run at adding one of the top starters available as well as seek a hitter. Note I say “adding”, meaning they need to sign Dempster as well. They could go into 2009 with a rotation of Zambrano-Dempster-Lilly-new guy-Marshall-Marquis, which is as deep as you can get. I think we saw with the injuries to Zambrano and Harden this season that it’s true, you really cannot have too many starters.
They absolutely need another left handed bat. I’m just not too excited about what’s on the market. Fontenot may have a hole in his swing, but every batter does. It’s about making adjustments, which I believe Fontenot can do. I also don’t compare him to Theriot. He has power, which Theriot does not.
Adam Dunn is a monsterous, no. I don’t ever want to see that guy roaming left field in Cubbie Blue. You guys bitch and moan about Soriano striking out, can you imagine the griping with him?
Heh. Yea… that career .381 OBP sucks. As does the career OPS+ of 130.
LOL. Is Dusty on this blog now?
Other than them both playing crappy defense, they are not really anything alike as baseball players.
Dave,
I was thinking the same on the Adam Dunn dislike. I don’t complain about Soriano’s Strikeouts. I complain that that Soriano is not a lead-off hitter. Dunn’s OBP makes him a better Lead-Off Hitter, but he has the ability to hit in the Middle of the order where a Home Run hitter belongs. I don’t care if all of the Outs Adam Dunn Makes are Strike Outs, as long as he still hits 35+ HRs and gets on base at .381 thats fine with me.
Matt and Kevin, can you name 1 player on the Free Agent Market that fills the Cubs biggest need? And that need is Left Handed Bat.
Fontenot maybe able to improve, and I’ve seen improvement. In 2007 he was that left handed version of Theriot. He did get stronger in 2008 and was able to make his 2007 Warning Track Fly Balls become Homers in 2008. But Fontenot is not going to be the Left Handed Bat we need in 2009 to balance the line-up.
I agree with you that Fontenot is not the LH bat that this team needs.
But Mike Fontenot had a 100 point advantage in SLUG in the minor leagues. The Theriot and Fontenot comparisons start and end at their bad defense.
Theriot’s minor league numbers: .271/.352/.337 OPS: .689
Fontenot’s minor league numbers: .291/.362/.437 OPS: .799
UPDATE:
The Cubs have picked up Rich Harden’s Option.
That I feel comfortable with? No.
Are there a few available? Yes. Brian Giles, and Raul Ibanez are two that come to mind. But we’re starting to talk about age issues. If you’re going to sign Ibanez, might as well just stick with Edmonds.
I would not want Dunn. He’s too one-dimensional. I don’t see him as much of an upgrade over Soriano.
I would like a lefty specialist in the pen. It seems like we’ve never really had one in the Hendry era. Cotts doesn’t have to go, but I see him more of a second lefty out of the pen or long middle relief since he has experience starting. I could see Marshall potentially filling that role since he has a big sweeping curve ball.
It’s an interesting situation. I think we could bring back the same team with tweaks and contend for a playoff spot. However, I would basically expect the same results in the playoffs with the same team. Thus, if the goal is to win it all as it should be, what do you do? How do you get it done considering that many of our players are overpaid and have no trade clauses and the free agent market is weak?
Dave:
By default a switch hitter is a mostly left handed bat since most pitchers are right-handed. If we had him, he would get most of his at bats from the left side and when we faced a left-handed pitcher he could bat right-handed. WOW the best of both worlds. And since Teixeira is a premier hitter that would get most of his AB left-handed, by default it makes him a premier left-handed batter. 2/3 of Teixeira career stats are as a LHB and technically he hits for higher average from the left side than the right side (.311 vs .303). Chipper Jones has the same percentage of LHB at 65%. Do you think that there are more left-handed pitchers than right-handed pitchers? If so, why are the two best switch hitters batting mostly from the left side? Is it because they like to hit the left-handed curve ball breaking away? Is that a succesful strategy? Not in my league. Maybe in Soriano land.
Yes, replacing those players with CC and Teixeira would make the team better. Teixeira is a better hitting first baseman and a better fielding first baseman than DLee. (DL:FPCT .994 /RF 9.12 / ZR .860 MT: FPCT .996 / RF 9.85/ ZR .873). He has won two gold gloves at first base. While DL has won three, he is five years older. It is a safe prediction that MT could easily win another gold glove within the next five years. His career batting numbers are also better across key stats. MT has a higher batting average (.290 vs .282), he hits HR’s more frequently one HR per AB 17.0 AB vs 21.2. He also K’s at a lower percentage than DL 20.3% vs 23.2%. He is also 5 years younger and has played other positions. He is heading right into his prime. DLee is slowly moving towards the downside of his career. Although no there yet. But the point is that MT has more producitve years left in his body than DL. If you believe Zambrano is a head case waiting to explode and Dempster is at best a #2 pitcher who potentially had a career year, I would gamble on trading away two #2 pitchers and get a proven #1 pitcher. It sure would have been nice to have a lights out #1 pitcher to open the series vs the Dodgers. If you had Dempster, Zambrano, and Sabathia on your staff, who would you have pitched for the first game of the playoffs? I would have sent Sabathia out there instead of Dempster or Zambrano.
Jose, the strength of this team is pitching.
I wouldn’t mess with the rotation one bit, unless it meant adding Sabathia.
Brian Giles is not yet a free agent. The Padres have a team option on him, and are supposedly leaning towards keeping him.
How is a guy with a career .380 OBP and a career SLUG of .518 one-dimensional?
Yes… I know.
Where did I say that?
Look… don’t get me wrong - I would rather have Texiera and Sabathia than Lee and Zambrano. But if, in order to do that, the Cubs also have to get rid of Dempster, I am not sure that it would make the team better.
Tex and CC are better than Lee and Z.
BUT… Tex and CC are not better than Lee, Z, AND Dempster.
You’re right. Not sure how I missed that.
So, then no. There aren’t any lefties I like out there. C Pat anyone?
I think a rotation of Sabathia, Harden, Lilly, Marquis and Marshall, is a winning rotation. It gives us three strong pitchers including a solid #1 and a strong lefty /righty combination. The rest of the staff can remain the same except for Lieber and Howery who can be replaced with younger, cheaper, and equally productive arms. I can’t help but think two things (1) Zambrano is a head case and will never be a #1 pitcher - get what you can for him now (2) Dempster had a career year - he may never repeat what we just saw and will be asking for the world to resign. He is also 31 years old. I would not want to invest too many years in a contract for him.
But that is not the question. The question is whether that rotation is better than Z, Harden, Lilly, Dempster and Marquis/Marshall.
And I say no. Even with the upgrade of Tex over DLee.
Dave, yeah that’s a great on base for Dunn, but it’s generally agreed he’s not going to help much when he does not hit a home run. And as I’ve said in other threads, I want a productive 3rd place hitter. Not Dunn. I really don’t know what position players are coming out this winter, much less left hand hitters. Besides, Hendry can’t and I am sure won’t limit himself to what’s available on the free agent market. If he wants a top left hand hitter, he needs to look at all of them, signed or not.
By the way, Harden’s MRI came back “normal wear and tear” and tendinitis. Watch, this guy is going to have to be babied again in 2009.
Holy Cow! This is driving me insane!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WE JUST WON 97 GAMES THIS SEASON!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The way everyone is talking about changes, you would think we just lost 97 games. This team is just fine. We just choked in the playoffs. Look at the Red Sox. They were once lovable losers. They kept putting pretty much the same team on the field year after year and kept knocking. Once again, we won 97 games, there is no need to make HUGE changes. Chill out people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I have no idea how Adam Dunn is not productive. At all. No idea.
A guy batting 3rd at a .236 “clip”? He and Ryan Howard had similar seasons, great when they’re on, killers when they’re not. That kind of inconsistency is unacceptable in that spot, OPS notwithstanding.
There is a lot more to baseball than batting average.
Further, Dunn’s .233 batting average is deceptively low, being that he had a very low .258 babip. If that moves up to his career .287, and it will almost inevitably move back up, then his batting average will significantly improve.
So I still have no idea how a guy with career numbers such as a .381 OBP and a SLUG of .518, who has averaged 40 HR and 96 RBI over his career, is unproductive.
That is not inconsistency. It is a low batting average. A low batting average is not the same as inconsistency.
Kevin… just curious… do you believe that Ryan Theriot and Juan Pierre are more productive than Adam Dunn?
The numbers don’t tell it all. It’s the guy’s performance, day in and day out. He’ll go on a streak with 9 homers in 7 games, .600 OBA. Then for a week or two he disappears, strikes out 15 times in 5 games. This doesn’t even address what he calls defense. He can hide at 1B perhaps. But yes, Adam Dunn’s history is a streaky one, and unless he bats 5th or 6th, it’s very very difficult to live with.
Okay… so now you have changed the argument from “productive” to “inconsistent” (based on batting average) and now “streaky.” I will grant you that Dunn has a tendency to be “streaky,” but so do most hitters, especially power hitters.
And we were not talking defense at all. I think that we can all agree that Dunn sucks defensively.
Inconsistent is not productive, and not productive does not bat 3rd. I think we have to agree to disagree, because despite the pretty power and OB numbers, I can’t see Adam Dunn as the main offensive cog in a winning lineup, just as you can’t believe he isn’t productive.
Kevin - you didn’t answer my question earlier.
Do you think that Juan Pierre and Ryan Theriot are more productive than Adam Dunn?
And… what left fielders do you think are more productive than Adam Dunn?
In other words, “despite the great numbers, he isn’t productive.” Huh?
Looking at raw numbers, Pierre and Theriot don’t line up with Dunn, but I don’t get the apples-oranges comparison. If you want to compare Theriot and Pierre with other top of the order hitters, fine. They are not middle of the order, like Dunn. Off the top of my head, I don’t know the productivity rankings of major league left fielders. Are you asking would I take Dunn over all other LF? Don’t know, don’t have the facts at hand. I just believe, and have read several accounts that agree, that Adam Dunn puts up numbers that do not accurately reflect what he brings to a team in day to day productivity. His slumps are game killers, his hot streaks can carry you. Again, I say, a part of productivity is consistency. But, you disagree, and I’ll leave it at that. You can’t paint a whole picture with Sabermetrics.
why not ramon vazquez instead of felipe lopez as the super sub. as for right field they should take a look at brad hawpe, hes younger and cheaper than abreu and produce the same. get fukudome a head start and have him take some at bats in winterball, and get him ready to play center.