That got your attention, didn’t it? The truth is, I’m dead serious. I’d like to present to you my plan for the offseason as we head toward winning the World Series in 2009. In begins with a drastic move, a bold move that demands teams take notice of Jim Hendry and the Cubs. The move? Trading Carlos Zambrano.
All year we heard that the Cubs needed a move to bring in another starter and we did. Rich Harden came in, pitched well, and in the end it was our hitting that let us down in the playoffs. Say what you will about how pitching wins in the playoffs, but the Cubs have done everything humanly possible to disprove that age old theory in the past two years. We’ve seen the team beat itself and virtually go hitless. Now, I’m proposing we fix that issue with a move to bring in some of the hitting needed.
Move # 1 – Trade Carlos Zambrano and Mark DeRosa to the New York Yankees for Robinson Cano, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy.
The snag with this move is Zambrano’s no trade clause. If you can get him to waive that to have the opportunity to play for the pinstripes, this deal works. In my mind, and obviously I may be wrong on this, Phil Hughes value is lower than the Yankees would have hoped. He struggled in both the Major Leagues as well as AAA this season and forced the Yankees to turn to guys like Carl Pavano and Sidney Ponson. He and Kennedy would give the Cubs two promising young arms to begin to build around. They would be able to slot into the rotation near the back and compete with the likes of Sean Marshall and Jason Marquis for those last few spots in the rotation. Cano would allow the Cubs to have a left handed bat in the lineup that doesn’t strikeout a good amount of times. He hits for above average power and has the potential to one day be a 25 – 30 homerun guy. He’s coming off a down year and because of the need for starting pitching, becomes expendable for Brian Cashman, who loves to move the farm and leave the team with a thin prospect pipeline.
For the Cubs, moving Zambrano makes sense for the simple fact that many may not agree with. He’s now an injury risk. He wasn’t himself down the stretch and was forced to get a cortisone shot to even pitch. For years we’ve seen him take the ball each and every day and never had injury concerns…until 2008. It’s time to move him before he becomes an all to familiar problem for Cub fans. We’ve had our share of arm injuries to franchise pitchers, and I’m not in the mood for another. We had a chance to move Mark Prior back in the day for Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada. In the end, we got nothing for him. Let’s not let that happen with Zambrano.
On the Mark DeRosa front, it would be tough to lose him. He’s one of the most likeable Cubs and was one of the most valuable members of this team over the past two years. He’s versatile and has nothing but a good attitude about he. Sometimes you have to give up to get something in return, and DeRosa would be an appealing replacement for Cano in the lineup.
Move # 2 – Sign Raul Ibanez to a one year deal with a mutual option for a second.
Ibanez doesn’t get much praise as a quality left handed stick, but the truth of the matter is that he has driven in 100+ runs over the past three seasons, all while playing for a bad Seattle team. At 37 years old, he’s not going to warrant a long term deal. He would provide another quality left handed bat in the OF and could play RF for the team next year as well as fill in for Soriano in LF and Derrek Lee at 1B. What would that mean for Fukudome? Just wait and find out.
Move # 3 – Resign Kerry Wood, Ryan Dempster and Reed Johnson and pick up the option for Rich Harden.
These guys all deserve to come back and it’s important to reward them for a job well done all year. All four were welcomed surprises to the team this year and I feel all will be important in the 2009 run as well. Some may worry that Wood and Harden will break down or that Dempster and Johnson were just flashes in the pan. With any move comes risk, but Wood and Harden still have electric stuff. Dempster played a vital role as the ace and seems to have figured out his issues with tipping pitches. Johnson found a role on this team in the platoon and that can help Felix Pie in the long run.
Conclusion - The Cubs have the tools to make it to the World Series in 2009. I liked this team coming into 2008 and I don’t think it needs much tweaking. Sometimes you just go cold at the worst possible times and for the Cubs it’s happened to the bats the past two years. In my mind we were the best NL team this year and in the end, we went home early. Tough break.
That’s it for the off-season. Here is my opening day roster for the season.
Catcher (2) – Geovany Soto, Koyie Hill
Infield (6) – Derrek Lee, Robinson Cano, Ryan Theriot, Aramis Ramirez, Mike Fontenot, Ronny Cedeno
Outfield (5) – Alfonso Soriano, Felix Pie, Reed Johnson, Raul Ibanez, Kosuke Fukudome
Starters (5) – Rich Harden, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, Jason Marquis, Sean Marshall
Relievers (7) – Chad Gaudin, Michael Wuertz, Jeff Samardzija, Carlos Marmol, Neal Cotts, Kerry Wood, Angel Guzman
Down on the Farm
In addition to the 25 man roster, we’re presented with a bright future with possible reinforcements down below. Here are some notables.
-
Micah Hoffpauir (1B / RF)
-
Wellington Castillo (C) – Hit .292 / .362 / .414 in AA in 57 games
-
Casey McGehee (IF)
-
Josh Kroeger (OF)
-
Jake Fox (1B)
-
Ian Kennedy (SP)
-
Phil Hughes (SP)
-
Rich Hill (SP)
-
Mitch Atkins (SP)
-
Donald Veal (SP)
-
Jose Ceda (MR)
-
Jose Ascanio (MR)
-
Kevin Hart (MR/SP)
-
Dumas Garcia (MR)
-
Andrew Cashner (MR)
Maybe. I have no problem with trading Zambrano, but I don’t think you go far enough.
You’re still tweaking a team that has shown nothing in two post seasons.
Every effort should be made to get rid of Soriano, Ramirez, Lee and Fukudome. Theriot, Fontenot and Cedeno too.
Rich, there’s no way Hendry can get rid of them. Their contracts are too big, back loaded and they all have no trade clauses. Fukudome is next to worthless right now. It doens’t make economic baseball sense to trade guys for nothing in return.
My ideas are coming up later in the week, but I for one don’t like the idea of trading Z. That starting rotation scares the heck out of me, and not because they’re good.
no way in anything ever do the yankees do that deal. that’s insane.
I do not have a problem with Joe’s idea. But I would add that we should not sign Dempster and instead go heavy for Sabathia. Dempster’s and Big Z’s contracts should equal about the same value of a Sabathia contract. I could live with a rotation of #1 Sabathia, #2 Harden, #3 Lilly, #4 Marshall, and #5 Marquis. If Rich Hill can shake off this year, he would be an added plus.
Keep Zambrano but as far as I’m concerned, Sori, DP-Lee, A-Ram, Fukudome, and D-Ro are ALL disposable. Especially Sori and A-Ram who once again showed us that under the bright lights, they just piss their pants.
Sorry Joe, but there are Several flaws with your theory on trading Zambrano to the Yankees. Now, I’m not saying trading Zambrano is a terrible idea. If the right deal comes along, then by all means.
In no particular order:
Flaw #1…Zambrano pitched pretty well in his 2 post season starts these past 2 years. He also showed us a couple nights ago that he can keep his cool. In any regular season game this year or any other, Zambrano would have given up several more runs after 3 errors behind him in 1 inning, he would have been pointing at his teammates, and possibly fighting with them in the dugout. Point is, Zambrano was a plus in the Cubs 2008 post season. One of few.
Flaw #2…You made Zambrano out to be the teams biggest and/or most overpaid problem, which is completely wrong. Soriano is the biggest problem with this team, and could have been the biggest problem with the offense in the post season. I see and hear many people say that this team is built for the regular season, and not the post season. Dick Stockton, and Ron Darling (spelling) are terrible announcers, but one thing that they hit on the head was that Soriano is a mistake hitter, and teams in the post season send out top of the rotation starters that make very few mistakes. Post Season Teams also do a lot of scouting, and know the ins and outs of their opponents, and that’s why Soriano suffered at the plate. And as I’ve stated in the past, a hole in the line-up (especially the lead-off hitter) hurts everyone around them, quite a bit. Just imagine what could/would have happened if the Cubs had Theriot/Fontenot hitting 1-2. Ramirez would have seen better pitches, and Lee hit the ball well in the post season anyhow.
Flaw #3…Joe, trading Zambrano because you feel that he will be the next Mark Prior/Kerry Wood yet keeping Rich Harden is hard for me to believe. Zambrano has shown very little reason for us to believe he will be unable to throw 100 innings year after year. Yet Harden could be a pitch away from a season ending injury.
Flaw #4…If the Yankees want a highly paid Front End Starter, C.C. Sabathia is a Free Agent, and won’t cost them their starting 2B and 2 “promising young pitchers.” Sabathia will probably cost more to sign than what Zambrano is signed to, however, if the Cubs had C.C. I doubt you’d be making the same argument you’ve made here about Carlos.
Flaw #5…Despite Zambrano’s 1 playoff game, and his No-Hitter in 2008, Zambrano had a down year. ERA, Win total, # of Starts, Strikeouts, and Innings were all worse than normal totals for Zambrano. Probably won’t help the Cubs get as much in return for him.
Flaw #6…No-Trade Clause. Zambrano has only played for the Cubs, and I believe he wanted to stay with the Cubs and gave them a home town discount on his current contract. Reason I believe that is because he didn’t allow himself a shot at the Free Agent Market. Zambrano also had Scott Boras years ago as his agent, and I think he fired Boras, probably because Boras would have pushed him to sign for the money, and I don’t believe that’s Zambrano’s wishes. Think about all the rumors a year ago when Kobe Bryant was supposedly coming to the Bulls. Kobe with the only No-Trade Clause in Basketball wasn’t going to allow himself to be traded anywhere unless there was enough talent *LEFT* on his potential new team that he could win there. I’ve heard that the Royals are really trying to put themselves back on the radar and contend in the AL Central. They could make a run for Zambrano, but will he want to go there and wait 2-3 years before a play-off run? No. Zambrano wants a Championship and he won’t let himself go somewhere that is clearly not ready. That leaves possibly 20 teams that Zambrano might accept a trade to.
Flaw #7…Zambrano likes to hit. Looks like the AL is out, and that means at most 15 teams for Zambrano to pick from. Sure, Hitting is not the biggest thing on Zambrano’s mind, but if it doesn’t cost him anything, why would he allow himself to be traded to a team that gives him 4-5 at-bats per season? And considering there are more “Re-building teams” in the NL, there’d really only be like 8-10 teams that Zambrano might consider a trade to.
Cut Derrick Lee.
Matt, Lee had a costly error, and maybe he could have caught that pick-off attempt from Harden but Lee and DeRosa were the MOST productive at the plate.
Lou Piniella is much more to blame than people think. And I’m sure you’ve heard him announce that the Cubs didn’t get it done with the bat. Well, Lou, you need to should some blame. Going into a series against 3 Tough Righties, means give me a Stick from the Left Side. You can’t tell me that Hoffpauir was unproven. He had the stats in AAA, and in a small sample had the best Batting Average and OBP on the Cubs. 25 Hits in 73 At-Bats with 6 Walks. He was also 3rd in Slugging Percentage behind Edmonds and Zambrano with 10 Extra Base Hits (8 2B and 2 HR).
73 At-Bats is not enough to prove his spot on the Play-Off Roster? What about a 5 hit game?
Well then tell me what Felix Pie did that proves he earned the spot? Don’t tell me Defensive Replacement, because that is what Fukudome’s role should have been. Not to mention everyone listed as an OF on the Cubs playoff roster was CF. Okay, so Soriano isn’t but if he had to play CF, then that would mean Ward is in RF and Zambrano or Marquis is in LF, and 4 of the 5 Outfielders on the Playoff Roster left the game for some reason.
So please prove to me why Hoffpauir didn’t earn a spot? (let alone be the starting RF?) Tell me again that it’s the lack of ABs? Because Hoffpauir could have had 100 ABs in September alone, in place of Fukudome, and at least 100 more when Soriano and Ward were disabled. In Spring Training we knew about Hoffpauir and were somewhat surprised that he didn’t make the roster out of Spring Training. Yes, many of us understood that Cedeno didn’t have options left to be sent to AAA, and that the OF spots were basically filled when the season started. But when Soriano and Ward hit the DL, Hoffpauir’s Spring Training earned him many more starts in Soriano’s place, and pinch-hitting duties to replace Ward.
That’s just one bad call by Lou. If any of you care to look back to when I was writing for this site, when the Cubs were searching for Dusty Baker’s replacement, You’d see that my 2 choices were Joe Girardi and Bob Brenley. And Brenley was my first choice because he knew the Cubs first hand. Brenley knew the needs of this team at the time, and had he been given the Job, Soriano would probably not be here. In fact I’d be willing to bet a great deal of money on that. However, Lou was much in favor of Soriano, and also has shown us a lack of baseball knowledge to leave Soriano in the lead-off spot as well as not replace him defensively in the late innings.
While Lou is not the majority of the reason why the Cubs took the earliest exit from the playoffs, He’s the reason for the Cubs 2 biggest offensive problems this post season, and 1 of the biggest problems in the 2007 playoffs.
So not having Hoffpauir on the team was “the reason” for the Cubs offensive problems?
And how many at-bats would Hoffpauir have received? Hoffpauir is a nice hitter. But he cannot play defense.
As for Soriano, he he is helluva’ baseball player. I am curious who you would rather have in LF than him.
Dave:
Anyone!!!! As a leadoff hitter Soriano SUCKS!!! Baseball is a what have you done for me lately sport? He has a BIG hole in his swing. His stupid hop in left field. He is no longer the base stealing threat we thought we were getting. He has a 5 cent head and heart to go with his million dollar talent. He will never be the player we want him to be (40/40). He is a very impatient hitter and pitchers now know it. And we are stuck with him for the near future. If we could free up his contract (which we never will)
, we could replace him in LF and have a ton of money to spend on holes that we need filled. Now, if he wants to impress me (and who does not), he should go to the Caribbean winter league, like I believe he does every winter (?), and ask to play CF and bat 3-5. I forgot to add that he is not a clutch hitter and will never carry a team on his shoulders to victory. It is not in his DNA.
He has always been impatient, and pitchers have always known it. He actually had his highest walk rate of his career this year.
Again, who would you replace him with? Without creating a hole and losing significant offensive contributions?
Wow… you don’t remember last September, do you?
Alfonso Soriano was second on the team in OPS and OPS+ (among qualified players). He led the team in homeruns, even though he missed significant time due to an injury. He was second on the team in stolen bases, even though he missed significant time due to an injury. He was also MUCH more efficient than Ryan Theriot was stealing bases.
Alfonso Soriano is a very good baseball player.
See Dave, there you go again. Throwing statistics into the argument.
It’s about perception, not numbers.
This hasn’t been touched on in the Z debate. There have been reports and quotes from Z that suggest he and Lou don’t get along very well. How should that effect the situation? Also, I think Z’s value is higher than what’s been suggested. Personally, although I get tired of his lack of maturity and inability to control himself, I wouldn’t trade him at this point. Our starting rotation is our biggest strength and will help us compete next year.
Soriano will likely never be productive in the post season. Like it’s been mentioned, he’s a mistake pitch hitter. His wheel house is a fastball over the plate around the knees. He is not likely to see those pitches in the post season. He’s virtually untradeable because he’s overpaid, has several years left on his contract and has a no trade clause. So, we’re stuck with him. He is a player that can help you over a 162 game season provided he doesn’t have annual leg injuries. However, he’s worthless in the playoffs. He should be benched in October, but Lou won’t do it. This is where I respect Torre. He moved Soriano to the bottom of the order in the playoffs when he was with the Yankees. He left verterans with large contracts such as Pierre, Kent, Garciaparra and Andrew Jones on the bench in this series. He does what he thinks gives him the best chance to win in the playoffs. Although Lou doesn’t coddle veteran players nearly as much as Dusty did, he does coddle his star players.
Teams have figured out that you can get Aramis out by running the fastball inside on him. Thus, our two biggest hitters have glaring weaknesses. This has been a big reason as to why we haven’t been able to score in the playoffs.
I wish we could get a whole new outfield. I would start by signing Manny to play LF. This team is so tightly wound in the playoffs that he would be perfect to help the team in this regard with production and attitude.
Finally, DeRosa is too valuable to trade. His versatility makes him very valuable to a NL team. He gives you insurance at four positions. You can’t give that up.
Dave,
As my argument stated, if Brenley was name the Cubs Manager, Soriano would not have been here. He was with the team in 2005 and saw the At-Bats Theriot had and knew that Theriot was a good option for 1/2 in the order, and he also knew that the Cubs were in need of a 3-4-5 hitter to compliment Lee and Ramirez. In the 2006 Organizational meetings the Cubs made Alfonso Soriano their #1 priority. That is in part because Lou wanted Soriano. Lou wanted Soriano because Dusty Baker made it clear he saw no potential Lead-Off hitter within the organization, and Soriano was tagged as a “Lead-Off Hitter” because that’s the only place he can, and the only place he wants to hit. Soriano was also coming off a 40-40 season with a bad team which meant that it was perfectly fine for Soriano to go after personal statistics and attempt a steal anytime he wanted with the Nationals.
Carlos Lee was a free agent the same time Soriano was. Lee signed a cheaper and shorter contract and probably would have been made the #1 priority by Bob Brenley, making Lee fatter in the wallet and sporting Cubbie Blue.
No, lack of Hoffpauir was not “THE Reason” the for the Cubs offensive problems. Go back and read post #8, last paragraph, “[Lou is] the reason for the Cubs 2 biggest offensive problems this post season, and 1 of the biggest problems in the 2007 playoffs.” Lou chose to go with a guy that has done next to nothing for the Cubs offensively (Pie) instead of Hoffpauir who has at least the 2nd best Left-Handed bat. Edmonds swung a hot bat for a while, and has the experience, so I’m putting him ahead of Hoffpauir but that may not even be right.
Point is, I have yet to hear Lou take any blame for his 0-6 Post Season record with the Cubs. Lou points the finger to 11 (I think that’s the number) of post season runs the Cubs have scored in 2007 and 2008. And while Lou cannot take an At-Bat, he decides who does, and when they do. I’m not blaming Lou for having Soriano in the Line-up, because he’s on the roster and healthy, and that makes him a better option than most. But I am blaming Lou for being in favor of getting Soriano instead of advising Hendry that Soriano was not as good a choice as Carlos Lee. I am blaming Lou for allowing Soriano to get more post season plate appearances than anyone else on the team.
I’d also like to know where Reed Johnson went these past 3 games. Reed had the 2nd best road average on the team(well playoff roster anyway, since Hoffpauir was left off), and could have been in there at some point in Game 3. And, when you’re backs are against the wall, you have to win or go home in game 3, why is Rich Harden taking that At-Bat in the 4th inning? 2 out, Runners at the Corners and no pinch hitter? Trailing by 2, and only 5 runs total in the 2 previous games, you can’t give away that scoring opportunity.
There’s another problem with the Cubs offense (Harden’s AB in the 4th) and who’s to blame for that? Do you blame Harden who had 2 hits I believe on the season? Harden it’s your fault you didn’t take yourself out of the game there and call for a pinch hitter. That was the perfect spot for a guy like Reed Johnson. And, it’s not like Harden was pitching well. He had an error, gave up 4 hits, and a Walk through 3 Innings ‘til that point. The moment ball 4 was called in the intentional walk to Theriot, you call the bullpen and get Dempster up in the pen, you throw in a pinch hitter and go from a 1 in 10 chance of extending the inning, to a 3 in 10 chance.
I do agree that Lou has to face the music in this last abomination. Last year you let it slide, this year not so much.
I have no idea why he suddenly inserted Fukudome back into the lineup, and then into the 2 hole. Just dumb. And yeah, where was Reed Johnson?
I’m also not a fan of resting the starters after a playoff clinch. Baseball is timing, without regular reps you can lose it. Which is precisely what I believe was part of the problem.
Dave:
Thank you for those wonderful stats. How many walks did he have in the playoffs? How many stolen bases did he have in the playoffs? Can you please let me know one more stat? Where can I go to find tickets to the Cubs second round playoffs this year? I can not seem to find them anywhere on the net. Soriano SUCKS!! And I do not care what his past stats are. They mean nothing when we needed him. When we needed him, he choked. Two years in a row. Too bad we can not face the Pirates in the playoffs. Then maybe he could find pitchers who he can feed off of. He has got one major hole in his swing and he does not have the patience to know that and because of that, good teams will exploit him. He loves the long ball because it feeds his stats. He may feed off of weaker teams, but when it counts, he chokes.
A week ago this would’ve been unthinkable. The reality is, this team is still the same team we watched all summer and no one doubted they could win it all. The fact that they failed spectacularly over three games doesn’t change that. While I’d be in favor of moving any of these contracts, if possible, in the right deal, going out and looking to get rid of them is not the answer. Finding a way to take the pressure off of them and get them to perform in the playoffs the way they do in the regular season is much simpler and has less potential for disaster. But how? Well, it falls on the manager, IMO, to set the tone. The history of failure may be a “curse”, but it also makes the Cubs the ultimate underdogs. And as every manager knows, playing up the underdog aspect is a great motivational tool. Lou shouldn’t be denying there’s a curse; he should be embracing the curse. He should be talking about how everyone knows the Cubs will never win, how even the fans know they’ll find some way to blow it, so they may as well just go out there and play the games and have fun. Every time the media tries to paint them as favorites, he should start laughing. “Favorites! Yeah, right. This is the woeful, cursed Cubs we’re talking about. We all know this is going to end (wink wink)”. Bottom line — this is a very good team that just happens to play for the neediest fan base in history. They need to acknowledge that fact and have fun with it.
Why does everyone talk about Soriano as a 40/40 player? He did it ONCE. And that was on a team where he was the only offense. His post season numbers aren’t atrocious, but they aren’t good either.
D Lee’s are pretty friggin’ good, including this year. A-Ram, however, has sucked since the NLCS against Florida.
Claude, stop believing in curses. And I don’t want a manager that talks up the curse. I also think that if anything, the Cubs were too loose. They didn’t seem pressured, they seemed unprepared and over confident.
Matt, Soriano’s numbers in the Post Season with the Cubs are atrocious, and then consider his salary.
But to go back to Joe’s biggest off season move…I’d like to point out that there has been little discussion about pitching in this thread. The debate has been mostly pointed at the lack of offense, mainly Soriano.
Joe, looks like the consensus is Soriano out, keep the pitching (starters) the way it is.
Soriano’s numbers in the post season with the Yankees sucked too. He’s just bad in the post season.
The best way to see your team in the world series next year (or any of the next 100) would be to give up on the bums from the north side and start rooting for a real baseball team. Even the White Sox have figured out a way to win the fall classic (and they even won a playoff game this year, not to mention the Crew and Rays getting it done at least once this post season)
A 9 game losing streak in the playoffs… priceless (or is the price the highest pay role in the NL?)
ITS NEVER GONNA HAPPEN.
Welcome to the second century of losing for the second city.
Finally, in the words of Nelson, “HA HA”
I think dumping everyone is a panic move. The Phillies are a great example of a core group of star players that went from choke-job to playoff success within a year. Billy Beane thinks the playoffs are a crapshoot; I think he’s right. There is little correllation between regular season success and post-season success, once you get to the post season. You simply have to get there. We should have the horses to get there again next year.
A-Ram, Soriano, and even DLee are good players. They have no-trade clauses anyway, so trying to move them is moot. I do agree that D-Lee is a declining player.
I have no doubt that Hendry will be active this offseason. I think beyond whatever he might pull in trades, there are several decisions/questions:
1. NO-BRAINERS: First moves should be to pick-up Harden’s option, and offer Reed Johnson arbitration. Lock those two down, both decisions to me require no additional thought.
2. WOOD AND DEMPSTER: We should attempt to re-sign both. I don’t think anyone would disagree with that.
3. RIGHT FIELD: Specifically, Fukudome. He will be a Cub next year, make no mistake. Question is how much we rely on him. He has talent, can he make the adjustment and settle into a competent hitter? Or will he continue to bail pitch after pitch and become a very expensive defensive replacement?
4. CENTER FIELD: I think Edmonds was lightning in a bottle, and at any rate he might retire. Pie I won’t go over. Reed Johnson can fill the spot, but we might need him to bail us out if Fuku fails again in Right.
5. SHORTSTOP: Theriot is below league average. He’s cheap though. I can live with him there if we improve in the Outfield. Or, an alternative would be to upgrade here (Furcal?), and live with reduced outfield production. You can’t fill every hole.
6. SAMARDZIJA: Starter or Releiver? If he can be a dominant starter, that is much more valuable to us than relief help.
7. TRADING CHIPS: I think our top trade bait is Sean Marshall. He should be a starter, and we don’t have the room. If Demp moves on, we need someone in that slot more dominant than Marshall. Marshall would have significant trade value, and would net a CF or good LHRP or something useful in return. An alternative, if Marshall is in the rotation, is trading Jason Marquis. Marquis would NOT return much in baseball value, but I think there would be a market for 1 year of Marquis, even at $9.5 mil. Look at what starting pitching costs, and really, he wasn’t that bad for us.
On the subject of pitching, I have to wonder if Lou and Larry Rothschild had the right plan (or any plan) going into the series.
Why didn’t Lou pull Dempster in Game 1 earlier? He was obviously struggling with his control. Was he worried about the backlash from last year’s early hook of Z?
Based on Z’s performance in his last few starts (no-hitter not included) why give him such an important start? why wouldn’t you have Lilly or Marquis ready to go at anytime in that game?
You can’t blame Harden for giving up two runs. That loss goes to the offense that makes every opposing pitcher look like Hall of Famers.
Hughes, Kennedy and Cano for Zambrano and DeRosa?
Can I have what you’re drinking? This isnt MLB 2k8 buddy.
“[Cashman] loves to move the farm and leave the team with a thin prospect pipeline.”
This is completely, 100% false. See the 2007 off-season and the non-trade for Johan Santana.
Good lord. Where do you get your info?
Since when have the Yankees had a system full of prospects? At least in recent memory?
Sam,
Why are you blaming Zambrano? He was deserving of that start, and it’s not like he gave away the farm. Zambrano’s line shows 7 runs, 3 Earned, but Theriots one-handed try wasn’t Z’s fault, and the errors extended the inning, and allowed the runs (earned and unearned) to score. The only run you can pin to Z was the Manny Homer. The infield gave the Dodgers 4 extra outs that inning, but the pitches where made for Zambrano to escape without giving up a run that inning.
ironic thing about DeRosa, perhaps this team’s MVP, solid player anyway you look at it… in 07 he hit into the DP against Livan Hernandez that killed us in Game 3 (down 1 run, bases loaded, 1 out, momentum in the Cubs’ favor), and in 08, Game 2 makes a HUGE error failing to field a sure DP groundball. No fucking way Billingsley throws that ballgame with the added pressure of a 1-run game, plus Zambrano was throwing well up to that point.
i thought each of the 3 games had a key early moment that went against the Cubs… Loney’s 2-out grand slam in game 1, DeRosa’s mistake in game 2, and Loney’s 2-out 2-rbi double in game 3.
The Yankees weren’t willing to do a Hughes/Kennedy trade for Johan Santana. Why would they give both up AND Robinson Cano for Carlos Zambrano?
Ibanez would be a nice pickup, although he’ll want more than just a 1 year, 1 option contract. He will probably get 3-4 years on the open market.
And you are right that Zambrano is a risky guy to root for, both as an injury risk now and a “what the heck is Big Z going to do tonight?” sort of risk. I wonder if the Cubs fans who are suggesting a trade of Zambrano don’t like him because he’s a bad pitcher (he’s not) or because he makes them nervous.
Nbad, I never said I believed in a curse, nor do I think anyone else should. The point is to embrace the IDEA of a curse, as a way of playing up the underdog factor to take pressure off the players.
Guys take a breath and relax. DO NOT MOVE Z!!!! that’s just plain dumb.
Get the free agent 2nd baseman for the Oriels Roberts I believe his name is, move him to the lead off position move Sori to 5th or 7th.
Resign Dempster and Woods. Move Marquis bring Marshall up to 5th starter.
Edmonds is gone and DeRosa also trade him for soem middle relief and a good young prospect pitcher of course. Oh ya give Fukadome a chance to get familiar with our culture and bring in a batting guru from Japan and have at it in 2009.
relax i’ve been a Cub fan longer than most of you have been alive. Just be patient and enjoy making the play offs 2 years in a row.
It’s apparent that this team is just not as talented as the remaining clubs. Deep, yes, but where are the superstars? The game breakers? I am throwing my arms up in the air and saying Soriano is no longer and never will be a marquee player. I defend the guy enough but he is a poor fielding 5th or 6th place hitter and if Hendry and Piniella have any nuts they will tell him so and say, here’s where you bat son. The lack of left handed hitting points to their misread on Fukudome. He showed absolutely no ability to adjust. Not sure if he ever will at age 31. I read several accounts saying that the only option for him is to start next year at Iowa. Does Hendry have the guts to follow through on that, and will Fukudome accept it? Anyway, they need to upgrade the roster. Derrek Lee needs a caddy, I don’t know (although I suspect) if it’s because he was tired all year AND I am sure the wrist factor is still in play. Ramirez is not a featured player. By no means would I say he has to go because in the regular season he’s a key asset, but not the foundation of your lineup. The outfield is kind of a mess, in that they are stuck with the left fielder, they have no regular center fielder and the right fielder is a complete flop. They will have to either stick Pie in center to platoon with Johnson, or find a guy like Chone Figgins or a similar player who can play that spot and bat leadoff. They have absolutely no one at the minor league level who can help at any position next year, so they will have to make deals. I bet everyone asks about Samardzjia so they have to decide if they are going to sign Wood again, and if so, can they afford to give up another power arm in the pen. Pie will be dangled, so will Josh Vitters who at this point is the only minor leaguer who might bring anything.
Me, I would see if I could get a taker for Lee and sign Teixeira, a younger switch hitter. Ask again about Brian Roberts, that would afford a RF platoon of DeRosa and someone else. Dangle some big names in the market, like Zambrano and Lee. Think they wouldn’t get interest? The Angels would love to have both. See if Lowe or Sabathia want to play here, see if they can swing something for Jake Peavy. Go see if there is an outfielder or two, like Figgins or Jeremy Hermida. I bet they could entice Detroit with some pitching for Curtis Granderson. I really don’t know what’s going to be out there on the free agent market for position players besides Ibanez, who is a gamble even if he drove in 100 runs in a pressure-free environment. But upgrade the talent, play a more complete game. I am afraid they will bring him back, but I would dump Harden. Who cares if you get nothing. He will always be a medical worry, and they will have to baby him through a season. That’s not fair to a guy like Sean Marshall who has proven he deserves a full shot as a regular rotation pitcher. Dumping Harden makes you keep Marquis but it’s not like that will preclude any key acquisitions anyway. And that is $6 mil to spend on someone who will help you more than a guy who will start 20 times for you.
Another thing that stuck out not only in the post season but in September is that Ryan Theriot is at best an average shortstop. To me, if you want to go to the Series, you need a top flight talent who makes big plays along with the routine stops at shortstop. His skills are obviously lacking on the field. He also can’t bat leadoff because he can’t steal a base to save his soul. I don’t know of any alternatives, just saying they might have to cut bait with him and if they find a solid defensive shortstop who can hit .260, Theriot might not have higher trade value than now. I would have suggested Ronny Cedeno but (A) they can trade him for something and (B) he gagged up too many key plays this year for my taste.
I just looked it up, the Yankees AAA Team won it all this year. I think their prospects are pretty decent. That trade would never work. The Cubs should go after Burnett if he promises not to get hurt and sign Rocco Baldelli to play CF.
First, I’m tired of all this talk of trading Soriano. It is not going to happen. His contract is too large to move. Furthermore, I’m tired of all this talk about him not being a lead off hitter. Let us not forget that in game 2 he got on with a single, advanced to second on a wild pitch, but was stranded at second. He did his job and the 2-4 hitters didn’t do their job. Also, he leads off only once a game. After the first inning, it is a complete crap shoot of when he bats again. Should we have a line up of 1-9 as nothing but lead off hitters so we can have a “true” lead off hitter for every inning? Didn’t think so.
As for trading Zambrano, there is no way I would do this. The Cubs rotation, 1-5 is one of the best. Dumping him and going with the rotation suggested makes it middle of the league at best. Harden, although I like him and think his option should be picked up, can’t be depended on as a number one. If he goes down, we got maybe a legit number 2 (Dempster – time will tell) and a bunch of 3,4 and 5s. (Lilly’s era is too high to be a effective number 2).
The moves that need to be made in my opinion: (1) Lee has to go or moved to the five or six spot in the lineup. I believe his refusal to take days off is finally taking a toll on his body. (2) Ship Fukudome to the minors (can’t dump his contract) and find a replacement cheap but effective RF (DeRosa and Hoff could work – defense is an issue with these two). (3) Middle relief. (4) CF – Pie (overated – I’ve always felt this way) and Johnson (better of the bench). Only problem is that there isn’t really any good CFs available. Look at past years demand for CF and the over paying for players (Andrew Jones, Rowand and Pierre come to mind) (5) Sign Wood, Dempster (tough with the Lohse deal at 10 mill a year), pick up Harden’s option.
Remember the Cubs had a great team but collapsed in the post season. Why have a fire sale? Only a few adjustments need to be made.
Finally, for all of those who say get rid of ARam, that has to be the dumbest thing I’ve heard. Best player on the team and one of the best 3rd basemen in the league, replace him with who? Someone who has less skill but has been proven in the post season? Thats all fine and good, but the Cubs need ARam to get to the post season. If you do that, then your stuck with a career post season hitter on a team thats not in the post season.
He hit over .500 in the post season, and almost .300 in the regular. Because of double plays he’s tired? People please.
I believe Chone is signed to an extension, and the Orioles have already stated they’re going to resign Brian Roberts. Texeira has an option year, which will most definitely be picked up. The free agent market this year is weak.
No. Just no. Burnett can’t stay healthy, and Baldelli is even worse. He didn’t even start playing until August this year, and he missed half of last season. What kind of help would that bring us at all?
Check back on Wednesday. I think you’ll like my plan.
Harden might be better off as a closer.
Wow Matt! My head hurts reading posts 31-34, as I’m sure yours might too.
Marty-Telling us to be happy about making the post season 2 years in a row, in which the team went 0-6 is like having a Rich Uncle Die and leave you a Billion Dollars which is locked in a trust fund until your 120th birthday. If you want to celebrate it, then go right ahead, but *that’s dumb* and don’t tell us to relax and be happy.
Kevin-About half of the Cubs player you named, Zambrano, Lee, Ramirez, and Samardzjia all have No-Trade Clauses. As Matt said, Lee hit over .500 in the playoffs, and even if you could sign Teixeira, he’d probably cost 1.5x to 2x as much as Lee. And after you’ve gotten Lee to waive his No-Trade clause and trade him off, then sign Teixeira, what money is left to get Sabathia, a SS upgrade, and an outfielder that makes a difference? As for Theriot, I’d like to know where you get your statistics. Can’t steal a base? He’s 63 for 82 in his career. And he has better statistics in basically every category from the #1 spot in the order than any other spot (of 5 or more Plate Appearances). I’ll agree he’s not a gold glover, but he’s not the worst defensive player, and he has good range.
Chris-I laughed. I needed that. A.J. Burnett, good one.
Cardinal Country Cub Fan-I laughed again. You’re right, Soriano got 1 Hit in the whole 3 games, and where was the rest of the team to drive him in? 1 for the Series, but he’s earning his $136 Million. And you’re right, you only “lead-off” the game once per game. But after that, you’re still a guy that is expected to get on in front of D. Lee who got a hit in more than half his At-Bats.
Dude, I don’t think the Yankees would ever do that. They balked on the opportunity of trading for Johan. Why would they go one lower and trade Hughes for Zambrano? Not going to happen. Creative thinking though.
If you think the Yankees would even consider doing that deal you are out of your mind.
Nothing will make me happy until they win the whole god damn thing!!! I simply dont care anymore who plays where? and who comes in. We all know championship will make us happy!! So i can die a happy man!
Well, so far our ideas include getting rid of Zambrano, Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, DeRosa, Fukudome, Theriot, Fontenot, and Cedeno….
Wow, what an awesome idea. That’s totally not an over-reaction at all.
Wow… lots of interesting stuff today. Lets start here:
Wow… three games. Let me repeat that. Three games. While the three games were important, they are meaningless in any real evaluation of a player.
Yup… the Cubs lost because of Soriano. it is all his fault. Maybe we could get another sCrappy player like Ryan Theriot instead of Soriano. Then the team would have won. Oh wait… Theriot sucked in the playoffs too.
Huh? ARam? Soriano? Z? Harden? They are all some of the very best in the game. They had a bad game/series. That doesn’t mean that they are not talented. The Cubs had the best offense in baseball and one of the top few pitching staffs. They were really, really talented, and simply didn’t execute in three games. Three games is hardly enough to make a judgment on a team’s talent.
Don’t use facts. They just get in the way.
i may be biased because im a yankee fan, but zambrano didnt have a good year and kennedy and hughes still have potential. the reports of hughes becoming an ace and an absolute monster have diminished considerably, but he will still make a really good pitcher one day, similar to zambrano. kennedy relies on control and has had trouble adjusting to the smaller zone in MLB compared to AAA. cano almost won a batting title two years ago, and after his swing was corrected late in the season, he hit over 400 for the rest of the year. Also, his defense is great when he tries and his offense coming from the 2B position is irreplacable. this trade makes no sense for the Yankees.
Completing Joe Aiello’s proposed move #1 would require the Cubs to get Brian Cashman and the rest of the Yankee’s braintrust really, really drunk. However down in value Cano, Hughes and Kennedy might be, why would the Yanks trade Hughes and Kennedy for Zambrano when they would not do so for Santana? And why would they want a headcase like Zambrano, who may not be healthy, and a journeyman secondbaseman coming off his career year (a year he is not likely to repeat)? If your going to suggest trades, they must make sense for both teams.
Maybe it’s just me, and I’m probably treading on some dangerous ground…but I really like the way this team is built. Sure, I’d like to add a centerfielder who can hit leadoff, a rightfielder who can hit, and another arm in the rotation and bullpen. It didn’t happen for us the past two seasons but I don’t think it means we have to tear everything up.
The Yankees didn’t trade Hughes and Kennedy for Johan Santana. Why would they be willing to trade them both, AND Robinson Cano for a MUCH lesser pitcher in Carlos Zambrano and an older role player like DeRosa?
I think DeRosa is a great role player, but that’s besides the point. Cano has more upside and is worth more straight up. And it’s hard to justify Zambrano for Hughes straight up. If that’s what you want the Cubs to do or expect them to do, don’t hold your breath.
“And it’s hard to justify Zambrano for Hughes straight up.”
Yeah, contracts aside, Hughes is clearly an established star while Zambrano hasn’t shown he can keep the Kansas City Royals from putting up an eight spot against him. Oh sorry, that’s the other way around. Pitchers like Z are rare in baseball, like it or not. He’s a guy who, when he’s right, is one of the top ten or so pitchers in baseball. Hughes hasn’t done shite. Come back when Hughes has his first good half at the major league level, then we can discuss if he’s better than Z.
Matt Jacobs and Nbad: no trade clauses are there but should not come into the equation where Hendry’s process is concerned. He needs the nerve to explore EVERY option to tweak (not overhaul) this team, and if it entails feeling out the other teams’ interest in Lee, Soriano, whoever, then he needs to pursue that. Then you speak with the player about what you have, and if it comes to it ask that they waive the clause. If they say no, fine. If they agree, there’s your window of opportunity. If it upsets the player, who cares? This team needs to win next year or perhaps 2010 because after that the cupboard is going to be a little empty. NBad, don’t be fooled by Lee’s BA in the NLDS. He drove two balls for doubles, the others were singles. This is NOT what your third place hitter is supposed to do. And after May 15 he had trouble driving any balls at all. Lots of singles, ground balls to the left side. Not much pop or line drive power. That signals that SOMETHING is up, the wrist, being tired, whatever. If Lou continues to let the tail wag the dog in the case of Lee wanting to play every day or Soriano leading off or Zambrano skipping workouts (as I heard on Sports Central last night), then we are going back to the Dusty Clubhouse where two or three “superstars” dictate the makeup of the team. That CANNOT happen. The Angels could renew Teixeira but now that they are out, I know that’s not automatic.
On the subject of Harden, why is this guy automatic for next year? Do you want to see the team baby him through 20 starts for $7 mil, not guaranteeing a quality performance? His specialty is a 98 mph fastball and sharp slider and he showed NEITHER in September and October. Me, I would cut bait, and spend that money on Derek Lowe or a solid middle reliever. I guarantee they get more out of 26-28 Sean Marshall starts than 15-20 Rich Harden outings. They gave up squat for him, they will lose very little.
Joe Aiello, nice breakdown on next year’s roster possibilities, but the vast majority of the minor leaguers you mention will not be close to being ready in even 2 years, or are simply fringe major leaguers. The only guyn who might contribute anything in 2009 is Ceda. The others are either a huge leap or really do not belong on a major league championship 25 man roster. The Cubs’ minor league system is fair to middlin at best and real live help (like Vitters, Flaherty) is years away.
Dave:
You have got be kidding me. Soriano has never had a good game in the post season. Never. And yes, the post season does matter in stats. Who cares what a players does during the season if he can not be counted on during the post season. What, do we have Soriano play during the season and then just sit him durng the post season because he has proven he can’t deliver. Get over it, he SUCKS!!! and yes I am blaming the post season on him. He is the lead off hitter, he makes the most money, and should deliver when we need him. Theriot is not one of our back bone players. He is a fill-in player. And a damn good one. This team was designed around Lee, Soriano, and ARAM. Lee batted well. Aram,he stunk. But Soriano SUCKS!!! Please list one playoff game, ever, that Soriano has performed well. Bet you can’t.
^ You obviously didn’t watch D Lee hit the last three weeks of the season. He was driving the ball.
First, I think it is utterly foolish to look at individual games to analyze a player.
Second, but I will oblige, just for you. Here are several good playoff games from Soriano:
10/10/01: 2 for 4, 1 R, 1 SB
10/17/01: 2 for 4, 1 R, 1 SB
10/21/01: 1 for 2, 2 BB, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 R
10/22/01: 1 for 2, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 2 R
09/30/03: 2 for 5, 2 2b, 1 RBI, 1 SB
10/02/03: 3 for 4, 2 R, 1 RBI, 1 SB
10/15/03: 2 for 5, 1 2B, 2 RBI
10/19/03: 1 for 3, 1 HR, 1 R, 2 RBI
But you are right… he has never performed well in the playoffs. Ever.
Thanks for playing.
Oh I saw plenty of Derrek Lee all year. Didn’t hit the ball much better in September than in July. God bless the guy, he’s apparently a solid citizen, clubhouse leader, respected by players, fans and management alike. If they feel he is their best option at 1B next year fine, he’ll be excellent. He is just no longer the feared hitter that he was back in 04-05. Is it coincidence that his since his wrist injury he is no longer feared by the opposition? Anyway, he simply cannot be the 3rd place hitter for the Cubs next year if he continues along this path. We will experience the same disappointment in the post season.
Hmm… well, being that he just crushed the ball in April/May, I am not so sure you can say it is a wrist issue.
And I have said over and over again, studies have shown that you should have your 4th or 5th best hitter batting 3rd. That is what the Cubs have right now.
Huh? It is Derrek Lee’s fault that the offense didn’t score runs? Really? He and DeRosa were the only two players to hit the ball in the series.
Facts, facts, facts. They only get in the way.
Dave:
Soriano’s career playoff stats are as follows: 44 games, .213 BA, 174 AB, 37 hits, 4 HR, 18 RBI’s, 9 BB, and 53 K’s. Not really great stats are they?. He has more K’s than hits, walks, and HR’s combined. He SUCKS. You really can not be saying that Soriano is a good playoff player. He SUCKS. hard to argue with those stats – right?!Live with it.
Jose, you argued Soriano didn’t have ONE good playoff game. Dave showed you that he has.
If you’re going to make statements like that you better be prepared to back it up with some real numbers. Or eat crow.
I’ll agree his CAREER post season stats aren’t too mesmorizing, but with a small sample size, all it would take is one or two big games to make his number jump significantly.
Kevin,
Just know that Home Runs aren’t everything. And I’ll take a guy that goes 6 for 11 with 3 Doubles (yes he had 3 doubles) than a guy that goes 2 for 11 with a HR.
And Lee’s average was .291 for the season, that’s a good average, nothing wrong there. June-September Lee was 112 for 389 which is a .288 average, not far off his season average. He also had 41 doubles for the season with 25 of them June-Sept.
Yes Lee hit into more Double Plays than we would have liked, but look through the years at the GIDP leaders and you’ll see a lot of Hall of Famers. Good players hit into Double Plays.
No-Trade Clauses are also harder to work around than you make it out to be. Lucky for us, the biggest problem on the team, Soriano, is probably the most likely to waive that clause, and I’m sure Dusty Baker would be the first Manager in Baseball telling his GM (Jockety) to call the Cubs. And that’s a good thing, because the Cubs could possibly get rid of Soriano and his remaining $106M for 6 years, and only be stuck paying maybe $30M of it, which will open up $14 Million per season to be spent elsewhere.
And yes, This has been a Dusty Baker Clubhouse for the past 6 years, and the reason it has been for the past 2 years, is mostly because of a player who was not even here when Baker was. Soriano batting Lead-Off and not being replaced defensively in the late innings is your justification.
Dave,
Yes, Soriano has had good/productive games, and sometimes, all it takes is 1 hit in a game to be considered productive. Hell 1 hit in 3 ABs is a .333 average, and it’s unfair to say that that is not productive.
HOWEVER- 174 Career Post Season At-Bats for Soriano, which is a good sample size, it’s 29% of 600 AB’s which is what I will convert his numbers to so that everyone can understand what his post season stats are compared to in a full season.
Stat-174-600
Hits-37-128
Doubles-3-10
Triples-0-0
Homers-4-14
RBI-18-62
Runs-14-48 (Wow, justification for lead-off)
Strikeouts-53-183
Stolen Bases- 10 for 13 – 34 for 45
Average .213
OBP – .263
Slugging – .299
Yeah, not too good. He actually had a pretty good 58 At-Bats in the 2001 Post Season, where roughly 50% of his stats came from. But that was his first post season, and since then, he’s been terrible. Subtract his 2001 Post Season, he’s .181 Average with 3 Doubles, 2 Homers, 11 RBIs, 6 Runs scored in 116 At-Bats. (translate those 6 runs to a full season, 36 Runs scored? Lead-off Hitter? NO)
He didn’t bat leadoff in most of those series.
Nbad, you make good points. But numbers aren’t everything either, just like homers aren’t. What I meant was to explore those avenues. No trade clauses don’t mean a guy won’t leave town. They don’t mean “don’t even think of dealing me”, in many cases. The vast majority will not be waived…..but this club is in a position where if they want to win a ring in a year or two they have to aggressively go after big name talent and, truthfully, strip some of what they have. The Cub brass need to be of a mindset where they will make ANY deal if the team is better for it. They can’t think, “We can’t deal Fukudome-Lee-Soriano-Ramirez, they have no trade clauses.” Such deals have been consummated before, let’s see Hendry at least consider it. As far as Lee’s numbers, yes, they look good. They do no translate into a hitter who will instill fear into a pitcher in key situations. Pitchers respect Lee, but they know they can get him out. Is that the guy I want hitting 3rd? No, it isn’t. I want someone who lines the ball around the field, takes a walk when necessary, and causes infielders to want to hide. So we can win a post season series. Derrek was not that hitter the last 2 years. And something is behind that, because he never hit into more than 20 DPs in a season before this year. I don’t think this was just coincidence. But as I stated before, if Piniella and Hendry decide that Derrek Lee is the 1B next season, I won’t be disappointed. He brings lots of good to the team, on offense, defense and into the clubhouse. But please PLEASE don’t make him the centerpiece of the lineup. Get a top flight leadoff guy so someone is on base when he bats, he’ll see better pitches that way. Get a 3rd place hitter to take some of the offensive responsibility off his shoulders. There are several routes to take here, and Hendry and Piniella need to explore them.
Matt,
I agree that Jose shouldn’t have stated not a single good playoff game, but, the point is, Soriano is terrible in the post season. And it’s a little bit funny that only 8 games Dave was able to list, in 44 career post season games. And in 5 different Seasons Soriano saw Post Season action, yet, Dave only listed games from 2 seasons.
But, your point about 1 or 2 good games will jump Soriano’s stats? Well, 37 for 174=.213 average. Give him 2 games where he goes 5 for 5, that’s 2 EXCELLENT games, and it takes him to .255 average, which still is not good. Soriano would have to go 17 for his next 17 in post season at-bats to get his average up to .283 which is inline with his career regular season average, and is a respectable average. If he scored in all 17 ABs, that would get him to 31 Post Season runs, still under 100 Runs scored if converted to 600 ABs, Still not a lead-off hitter. If 10 of those where Homers, he’d have 14 which is roughly 44 Homers over 600 ABs. That’s about the only stat that Soriano could really jump to make his post season numbers look respectable in just “one or two big games.”
If Soriano is with the Cubs next year and hits 10 Homers in the NLDS, then I welcome you all to tell me how wrong I was about Soriano. Until then, Soriano Sucks.
Sounds exactly like Lee. Hmmmmm.
And how do you hit into double plays? With a guy on first. Look to Scrappy “I can only hit opposite field singles” Theriot. More chances, more DPs.
Nbad, so I used too small of a size of games to make a huge jump. Sue me.
No one here would even be talking about moving Soriano, if he went 4 for 10 with 2 HR’s in two of those games. We all know he could carry the whole team by himself.
I think we’re all missing the boat. Why is no one laying blame on Lou?
There we go again, there’s once again that implied premise that Theriot is to blame for Lee grounding into double plays. Let me point out again that reaching first base routinely is a GOOD thing.
And Lee’s double plays don’t bother me a ton, he’s a still a good player.
Matt, that is not at all Derrek Lee v 2008. I don’t know how else to quantify the statement that he was not driving the ball without providing 500 replays. Guess we will agree to disagree. Yes double plays are set up with a man on first, I know the rules. Theriot couldn’t steal a base with a gun, that’s a separate issue. It’s the leadoff man who factors into this more than Theriot, anyway. Get a top of the lineup hitter who gets and runs, then we will see if Derrek Lee is truly your best guy to have batting 3rd.
And I say yet again, Lee is a good player. A VERY good player. Could enhance any big league lineup. Just not hitting 3rd, not this version of Derrek Lee. He was retired in far too many critical situations in both the regular and post season.
Great point about Lou, though. I wonder if he allowed both Zambrano (with his antics and self-scheduled workouts and exams) and Soriano (refusing to bat anywhere but leadoff or run full out because he was afraid to pull a muscle again) to Sammy-fy the team. The tails wagging the dog are Z and Fonz. This probably is the only serious error he should be accountable for, because with a non-running lineup, there ain’t a lot of maneuvering he can do.
I don’t get the Hate for Ryan Theriot. He, Soto, and Marmol might be the 3 most valueable players on the team, because they do a lot for the club, and make a combined $1.26 Million.
Sure we’d love to have Joe Mauer, maybe an Orlando Cabrera, and well Marmol is one of the best at his job, but Mauer and Cabrera would add about $20 Million to the Cubs payroll, yet we’d still have holes in RF, CF, and a weak post season player in LF. And if Kevin wants an upgrade at first base, that would probably add $5 Million there. Point is, Theriot is VERY valueable for the money he makes. And because he’s a “scrappy” player, he’ll probably never see $5 Million for a year.
He probably hit in just as many critical situations too. Without going back through every at bat, it’s a silly argument either way.
I just don’t get the “blow this team up” after two Division crowns and 97 wins. Look to Lou, if you have issues. He played the B and C team for two weeks. The regulars got rest, but they rusty.
I’ve posted the free agent list for ‘09: http://viewfromthebleachers.com/blog/2008/10/07/the-2009-free-agent-list/
Matt,
How many post seasons do we need to get swept out of in the opening round before you might think things need to be changed.
Wasn’t that the thought process last year? Sure, the Cubs got swept by Arizona, but the team just needs tweaked a bit. And then through this season, there were complaints that the team still did not seem ready for the post season. So a couple more tweaks. Result. The same.
I understand there are limits on how much can be done given existing contracts. But I haven’t read anything yet to change my mind. The more changes that take place in the Cubs roster (and manager, too) between now and opening day, the better.
This season was great. Lots of excitement and fun. But much of that was infused with the anticipation of a strong post season.
An it’s not just that they got swept. I can imagine three great games of competing and losing all three and I wouldn’t be nearly as upset as I am. But that’s not what happened. If the team isn’t going to even COMPETE in the post season, then what is the point to getting there.
Twenty five years ago, ANY post season appearance was cause to be thrilled. But now I expect a little more.
I just keep looking at the Yankess of the late ninties, and the Braves. Those were the same teams, just “tweaked” each year to keep competing at a high level. Hendry has done that the past two years.
This is going to sound ridiculous, but let spin a yarn about the baseball team I’m on. We stunk up the regular season. With a regular season record of 8-21, we had to play in a play in game, to move on the Division Series. Guess what? We won. This past week, we won the Division Series, and now play for the Championship. The regular season and the playoffs are two completely different animals. We’ve gotten hot over the past three weeks, to which I believe is attributed to us getting consistency in playing time. At all levels, it’s possible to lay an egg even after marching through the regular season. It’s just as possible to squeak into the post season and make some serious noise.
My point, you have to be in it, to win it. The Cubs have done that two years in row.
Huh? Where did I say that? Don’t put words in my mouth. You made a ridiculous assertion, and I gave you facts to prove it wrong.
You know, if you subtract Albert Pujols’ games where he gets hits, he sucks.
Hahaha! Theriot isn’t close to the most valuable player on the team, and he doesn’t belong in the same sentence as Soto and Marmol.
Should the Braves have been blown up in the 90’s?
For all of you Soriano haters… you all seem to hate him for his poor playoffs performances. Would you have also wanted to trade Barry Bonds before the Giant’s World Series year?
Well Said Rich.
And to Kevin…Well, Steve Stone was just on the radio and suprised the guys on the radio by saying he *DOES* believe the Cubs will trade D. Lee this off season. However, he also said he doesn’t think it’s a wise move.
Stone did say, it’s better to move a guy a year early than a year late, which I do agree with, and I suppose I could see him drop off in a few years. HOWEVER, I don’t think it will be in the next 2 seasons for 2 reasons. REASON #1-Because he’s a Free Agent after 2010. REASON #2-Because the 1st Base market is a bit weak.
I don’t actually see anywhere that Teixeira has an option in his contract for 2009. So he would be the one person worth pursuing, however I could see this guy making $17 Million or more since he’s the only 1st Basemen available. Waiting another year gives the Cubs the opportunity to see if Hoffpauir is able to take over 1st, or find someone else from within. Or possibly even pick up a potential 2010 first basemen in a trade this off season.
Steve Stone says a lot of things, and they rarely come true.
There is no option. He is a free agent.
And I would take the over on $17M.
Blalock is the only other 1B that’d I’d look at. But he’s got a history of being hurt.
Not only does he have a history of being hurt, he also isn’t an upgrade over Derrek Lee. He, MAYBE, has slightly more power, and significantly less ability to get on base.
In reality, over his career, Blalock has been a pretty average hitter. And his last seasons in which he actually played more than 65 games, here are his numbers:
2005: .263/.318/.431 OPS: 749 OPS+: 93
2006: .266/.325/.401 OPS: 726 OPS+: 86
No thanks.
My bad. When I am wrong I will admit it. I did not look as far back as Dave did (kudos to Dave) when I reviewed Soriano’s stats. But he still SUCKS in the post season. Ask your self this question – with a key playoff game on the line, Cubs are trailing by one run, two outs, runners in scoring positon- do you want Soriano batting? The answer is no – never. Would I want Albert Pujols – yes always. If you were to subtract games that AB gets hits, that will be a lot of substracting. The guy is a baseball monster. His post season career BA mirrors his regular season stats. He can handle the pressure. I do not understand how people can be defending Soriano right now. He SUCKS.
NBAD – Amen on Theriot. Finally some one gets it. The guy is valuable to this team. FYI, a #2 righthanded batter that can only hit opposite field singles is very valuable bacause that is what he is supposed to be doing. Hit it through the hole. If the leadoff runner is good, he should be on third base when the scrappy #2 hitter hits the opposite field single. First and third less than two outs is a good thing with a dependable #3 hitter.
That is my point.
Yet NBAD wants to subtract almost 1/3 of Soriano’s playoff at-bats in order to make his point stronger. That is bad statistics.
//You know, if you subtract Albert Pujols’ games where he gets hits, he sucks.// Oh, I like that line!! +1
As I said in that paragraph since 2001 his post season stats have been terrible, and then I gave supporting information. I didn’t say something stupid like subtract all his hits. I said take away 1 good post season, and the other 4 post seasons don’t even warrant a starting role.
Another point that can be taken from my statement, is that in 2001 when Soriano was a rookie, and hit where the coach told him he did well in the post season. Since then he’s become more of a superstar and demands where he hits in the line-up, and the whole superstar mentallity is the biggest hole in Soriano’s swing. And since he’s been doing things on his terms, swinging how he wants, probably not taking advice from batting coaches, he’s been even less productive.
Yes Jose, but my other point with Theriot, is that he fills an important role on the team, that we saw with Lofton, Grudz, and Todd Walker, and that is a great on base percentage. AND, Theriot is very valuable because he costs so little, therefore rather than getting a table-setter like Brian Roberts and paying $6.3 Million for 2008 or $9 Million for 2009 and then having $10 Million to spend on another position, you can now spend $16-$18 Million and get someone closer to Superstar Status at the other position.
By NO means am I saying Theriot is better statistically than Brian Roberts. But dollar for dollar he is much better, and the little bit that Roberts is better can be more than made up for by getting a CF or RF or Starting Pitcher that is much better.
Nbad this is the same point I made when we discussed Jimmy Rollins and Theriot. Theriot is one of the most valuable/cost effective players on this team. He hit 300, can steals bases (his selection needs to be better), and plays SS well all at a great price. He is pretty close to Jimmy Rollins on defense and hit for better average this year. Jimmy Rollins makes $8MM and Theriot makes $428K. He is scrappy. The fact that he is productive and makes so little, frees salary that can be spent in higher priced clutch players like Soriano.
I ain’t hatin on Theriot. My original conviction was that he is not a premier defensive shortstop. In fact, he’s good, at best. I wonder if they might be served by getting Furcal to play short and move Theriot to 2B where his arm is more suited. Assuming they can’t get Roberts that is. My arguments against Lee as a prime 3rd spot hitter are not silly. Pitchers respect him, they do no fear him. It’s pretty obvious. If Stoney says the Cubs might trade Lee, don’t take that as anything fact-based. I didn’t hear the broadcast, so if he says that he heard from sources that that was the case, then I will stand corrected; but he often present opinions as to what a team will do as fact. I listened to him on post game shows for years when he was working for the Cubs. Hendry also made a comment today about the club “exploring options in the free agent market” regarding a right fielder. Fukudome’s reaction to potential competition was, “I could care less.” In context, I believe he stated that he will be prepared for competition this spring no matter what. Whether that exploration involves Ibanez or not I have not seen. Marmol was injured in a car accident early this morning too, took some stitches. Harden is being examined by an ortho in preparation for the Cubs’ picking up his option.
That is an understatement.
No… he not even good. In fact, he is average, at best, defensively, though I would argue that he is bad.