A lot of the talk lately has been about the playoff rotation and who will take the ball in game 1. I’m more worried about who is going to NOT take the ball in the series. I think it’s a given that guys like Sean Marshall and Jason Marquis are not being considered for the rotation in the playoffs, apart from them you have four talented guys that probably can get the job done and yet only three spots.
Carlos Zambrano, since June 2nd is 5-4 with an ERA of 4.50, serving up 11 HR in those 12 games. It’s hard to think of him as the game 1 guy at this point but you have to factor in his ego when making your decision. Will he take the news well if someone like Ryan Dempster is out there for game 1? Would he pout and break all of Dempster’s bats over his knee in the clubhouse? I’d like to think he’s done some growing up this year, but I’m not so sure. I know one thing. If we were to give the spot to someone other Zambrano, and he did pout, he needs to be traded. We could get a ton out of a team for him. Deep down inside, I think the talk is going to drive him down the stretch and he’s going to earn that spot.
Ryan Dempster, as I mentioned earlier, has to be a lock for the rotation and should probably be the top guy. He’s outpitched everyone on this staff all season long and has been one of the biggest surprises in a season of surprises around baseball. After Dempster, you have Ted Lilly and Rich Harden. Which one do you send to the bullpen? Do you really move the guy you brought in via trade to the pen? If not, do you go with three righties when you have a good lefty that can start a game?
I want to know. What would you do if the playoffs started this Sunday?
My rotation would be…
Game 1 – Ryan Dempster
Game 2 – Carlos Zambrano
Game 3 – Rich Harden
Game 4 – Dempster or Lilly (Demp if we’re down 2-1 or Lilly if we’re up 2-1)
Game 5 – Ryan Dempster or Carlos Zambrano (depending on game 4)
Misc. Notes
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Mark Pawelek has been shut down for the rest of the season and it’s safe to say that this former 1st round pick is a bust. I had high hopes for this hard throwing lefty and he’s done nothing but dissappoint since tripping over his Playstation a few seasons ago.
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Bleed Cubbie Blue had an interview with Mike Fontenot the other day. (Source)
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Manny Corpas has been waived by Colorado. Seriously, jump on this guy. He’s young and could be huge for this pen as we try to replace an aging Bob Howry.
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Ryan Flaherty hit 2 extra-base hits
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Kyler Burke hit 2 extra-base hits
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Doug Deeds was 3-for-5
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Micah Hoffpauir was 3-for-5
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Tyler Colvin (AA Tennessee) was 2-for-5 with a home run
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Josh Kroeger (AAA Iowa) was 2-for-5 with a home run
Iowa 5, Oklahoma 8
Tennessee 4, Montgomery 6
Boise 3, Spokane 2
AZ Cubs 1, AZ Rangers 8
DSL Cubs 6, DSL Reds 1
Its not even a question. Harden DEFINITELY starts over Lilly, and it isn’t even close. Harden is the best starter on the team.
My guess is that it goes Z, Demp, Harden, Z, Demp.
Harden is the best pitcher, but can’t come back on short rest so you dont want him pitching in game 1 or 2. Obviously Lilly could pitch game 4 and Z or Demp could pitch game 5 if they decide to go to a 4 man rotation.
And boo… it looks like Vitters’ hitting streak is over.
Dave’s right. When Harden is healthy, he is the best starter on this team. I would like to see Lilly in Dave’s suggestion. The four man rotation would make sure that our pitchers could have an extra day’s rest if they needed it. Plus it woudl ensure that the opposing team faces a lefty.
RE: Trading Z, per Joe’s post, Zambrano has a full no-trade clause. We would have to drive him out of town.
I think you start Z game one. He is the best pitcher we have, when he is focused on pitching. Don’t distract that by changing the order, or telling him what a great hitter he is. The more Z worries about his hitting, the more he gets hit.
We might need 4 starters, because Harden should not be starting on short-rest.
We might need 4 starters, because Harden should not be starting on short-rest.
If Harden doesn’t start game 1 or 2, the Cubs wouldn’t need a 4th starter. They could bring Z and Dempster back on short rest.
I think you go with a 4 man rotation. Big Z should get the opener. It would most likely be at home and he pitched great in his playoff start last year. I would think he would be completely focused. I think the big question would be where do you put Lilly? Should we break up the the three righties rotation or do we have him pitch the 4th game?
oh man…you have to go:
Z
Harden
Dempster
Z (if necessary)
Harden (if necessary)
You have to go all out, and let’s face it, Lilly is NOT the guy you want in there in the postseason unless it’s super cold out, and it’s in Chicago, because that’s the only time when the gopher ball is somewhat mitigated. If they make it out of the first round, I think you have to start differently like:
Dempster
Z
Harden
Dempster
Z
Harden
Dempster
I don’t know…I mean, Samardzija and Marshall could be wild cards in all of this, and I’m glad they’re on the team. It gives us two very capable guys to come out of the pen if the starter gets in trouble, though I like Samardzija more as a set-up guy, and not long-man. I always wondered if the Cubs might give Ceda a shot, and just DFA Howry, or sign a guy like Corpas who was just waived….I guess we’ll see.
And just one final comment….with all of this, I think we’re getting quite a bit ahead of ourselves. Let’s get to the postseason first….but I completely understand the excitement, yet we all know about “Cubbie occurrences” throughout the years.
Arbear… there is almost no way that Harden is brought back on short rest. They will continue to be cautious with him, even in the playoffs.
Further… Dempster has pitched so well at home that I think you would want him throwing at Wrigley, which would mean him throwing in either games 1 or 2.
it’s tough to argue you’re a cubs fan if you advocate trading Z. He’s just Z being Z (much like Manny, but far less egotistical).
He’s also good, and he has only had three bad starts all year, really. YOu’re going to demote him for that? Please.
Harden can’t go deep into games, so you start with Z. Then Demp, Harden, Z (or Lilly based on record) and Z or Demp in 5. That keeps you fresh for the next series without losing anything in this one.
yeah, forgot to comment on that Z bit….I think that’d be a HORRIBLE trade right now…..Now, if you’re saying in the offseason after he has a BIG TIME problem, then maybe you consider it, but fact is, the guy is so competitive, and so durable, and he’s even single-handedly been our entire offense in quite a few games this year with our terribly inconsistent offense this year. Joe, I definitely agree with you that we could get an amazing haul for the guy, but with Harden’s durability issues, Dempster’s first full season as a starter in what 6 years or so….and Lilly and Marquis’ inconsistencies….I don’t think there’s anyway you can trade him. Who do we have in the minors? We traded Gallagher, who we now know has shoulder issues in Oakland. Veal has flamed out in AA, Samardzija lacks 3 or more effective pitches to be a starter at the MLB level, Hart was a one year wonder and now in AAA, Ceda has been switched to closer at AA, Pawelek has flamed out without even reaching above rookie ball, and so on and so forth….so unless you get a Clayton Kershaw, Joba Chamberlain-type in a trade, PLUS sign a guy like Sabathia AND Burnett in the off-season (highly likely actually, if Cuban wins the bid for the Cubs), then there’s no way you can even trade him in the off-season…
in all seriousness though, what would you guys think if Wood returned to the rotation next year if he can make it through healthy this year (a la John Smoltz), and we insert Ceda in his place, and name Marmol the closer?
Z
Harden
Dempster
Wood
Lilly
If healthy, that rotation might be the best the league has ever seen….but I’m must be dreaming to think Wood could ever make it through healthy as a starter.
I think a bigger topic of discussion needs to be what to do about Derrek Lee, and not the rotation. Dude grounds into double plays so often and at the most in-opportune times, that you just know, he’s going to do it in the post-season, much like DeRosa did last year….Last year, DeRosa was the GIDP goat, and this year, Lee has taken the cake, and gone above and beyond terribleness.
Consider this, Derrek Lee, at this pace, in right on target for Sean Casey’s career average. Casey has never really fit in well with any team, because of his lack of power in an obvious power position at first base. He beats Lee in nearly every offensive averages category except home runs (15 vs 27), but beats him in hits, doubles, average, OBP, and is even close in SLG.
Regarded as one of the slowest players in the game, Casey has an average of 18 GIDP’s per season. His career high was 27 in 137 games. Lee has 24 in 125 games already, which is about once every 5 games. The major league record is 36—Jim Rice…with 35 games left, at this average, he’ll fall just short of the record at 31 GIDP’s…However, as we all know, Lee hits them in bunches, and has had several games with 2 GIDP’s in one single game, so I wouldn’t put it past him. I tell you what….game on the line in a crucial situation and runners on base, I NEVER want to see Lee up there ever again, especially in games where we might be behind and desperately need runs. He’s a living, breathing, rally killer. I’d almost rather have Hoffpauir than him, and Hoffpauir has definitely earned that opportunity.
FWIW… Theriot has a higher double play rate than Derrek Lee.
Absolutely not on Wood starting. First, the Cubs need to be able to re-sign him. Second, does anyone have any confidence that Wood would be able to stay healthy as a starter?
Huh? You think it is highly like that the Cubs sign Sabathia and Burnett? Or even two comparable players? Not a chance.
Career OPS+:
Lee – 123
Casey – 110
They really are not even close. Lee has a 50 point career OPS advantage – that is not “close.”
Hmm… Casey has the advantage in hits, doubles, average, and a very slight advantage in OBP.
Lee has the advantage in runs, 3bs, RBI, SBs, BBs, SLUG, OPS, OPS+, and Total bases.
Lee, over his career, has been a far superior player to Sean Casey.
Further… 31 GIDP is also not “just falling short” of 36. 36 is 16% more than what Lee is on pace for… that is a big difference.
I can confidently say that Lee is also much better defensively. And with A-Ram at the hot corner, that’s a much needed glove.
I go with Z, Demp, and Harden. Although Lilly would be nice to get a lefty arm in there for a different look. If Harden could pitch on short rest, I’d have him #1. That being said, I’m almost use him as a pitcher to close out a series.
Speaking of Harden, is it me, or does it look like he’s altered his delivery. The other day that fastball looked like he was coming right over the top, instead of of to the side.
Where can you confirm that Manny Corpas was waived?
Piniella would be as foolish as he sounded as a color analyst if Harden doesn’t get the ball every time he is rested in the Post-Season. He is the only starter on the Cubs with Playoff dominant stuff. The reason he is always criticized is because his pitch counts are always high in the early innings. If you watch it is because he throws so much unhittable stuff that he has to throw at least three or four pitches to every hitter rather than getting one-pitch outs a la Greg Maddux. He will win every start he makes in the post-season and it would be a shame if that was only Game 3 of the NLDS!