I’ve always been told that the reason we study history is to learn from the past in an effort to change the future. That being said, it’s important to see what happened in the month of July in an effort to explain the struggles the team went through.
Granted, we went 15-11 in the month, but it seemed like it was a lot worse than that. So what happened? Let’s compare July with the season as a whole.
Here are the stats and MLB ranks in some various categories for the season as a whole as well as the month of July in isolation.
As you can see, the offense as a whole went down in every category and it actually seems like pitching stepped up their game. If it were not for the pitching, primarily the starting pitchers, this team may have lost the lead in the division before the month was over. What amazes me is whole far in the ranks the offense fell in that month.
It’s not a major breakthrough, as I think everyone noticed the lack of production from the offense. What I wanted to emphasize was the important of getting on base. If we continue to focus on that, working the count and putting the pitcher in sticky situations, this stretch run is going to be a mighty fun one.
This is really nice, Joe, great to look at it this way. WOW.
You should do this each month. Here’s hoping July is the worst of the bunch!
I imagine we played fewer home games.
What jumps out at me in that list is that the difference between a great team and a mediocre team is so slight.
OBP drops .02 and the rank goes from 1st to 13th!!
I would guess the biggest reason for the drop in offense was the absence of Soriano and Johnson.
OBP drops .02 and the rank goes from 1st to 13th!!
A 2% drop in OBP is fairly significant.
Think about like this… the difference between a player hitting .300 and a player hitting .320 is significant. The same thing with a player with an OBP at .380 and a player with an OBP of .400.
This is even more so when it is a whole team.
The Cubs, before today, averaged 38.8 plate appearances a game.
In July the Cubs played 26 games, which would mean 1009 plate appearances for the month.
With a .356 OBP… the reach base 359 times. With a .336 OBP the reach 339 base times (which makes sense… being that there were about 1000 plate appearances, you have a 20 point gap).
That means the Cubs reached base 20 less times in the month. So while only averages to a little less than one less person on base a game, it still makes a pretty big difference.
Over the course of a season, a 20 point difference in OBP would mean about 125 more (or less) base runners.
I would guess the biggest reason for the drop in offense was the absence of Soriano and Johnson.
Nah… not really. Edmonds and Fontenot filled in well for those two.
The bigger reason were the huge slumps that Lee, ARam, Fukudome, DeRosa, and Soto all saw.
Much better–an insightful article without any disrespect of opposing fans. Love the breakdown of stats to explain the troubles that made the division more of a contest. Incidentally, the ERA is the one thing that went in the right direction, and is the reason that I think the Cubs come out of the NL. The other things are likely to come around.
Much better–an insightful article without any disrespect of opposing fans.
Seriously… are people that upset about a small attempt at some humor?
Read through this blog… 99.9% of the blog is actual content with out “disrespect of opposing fans.”
But then again… maybe Joe should keep writing the “disrespecting” stuff, as it sure drove some traffic over here!
Yeah, it did bring me to the site, and I wasn’t as much upset by it as by some of the responses to my attempt to give crap right back. I mean, I said there was nothing redeeming about Illinois, and of course I don’t think that–I have relatives in Chicago.
If I had enough interest in the Cubs, I would read more of the stuff. However, in the absence of those experiences, I should say I am not assuming it is littered with that kind of negativity. I just want to encourage those articles that do not have it.
10 Home Games
16 Road Games
[Month of July]
During the month of July, the Cubs went from 17 games over .500 to 21 games over .500 while building a 5-game division lead, sweeping a four game series from their division rivals, and (oh yeah…) acquired a top of the rotation starter who has been striking out an average of 9 batters per start.
It’s my opinion that the headline of ‘What Went Wrong?’ is misleading and not at all indicative of the kind of month the Cubs had. Let’s be a LITTLE more positive guys!!
Go Cubs!!!
During the month of July, the Cubs went from 17 games over .500 to 21 games over .500 while building a 5-game division lead
That doesn’t mean that they played well.
That is kind of like saying… “Look – that pitcher has 20 wins!” and forgetting the fact that his ERA was 4.50.
Just because St. Louis and Milwaukee have played worse since 7/1 doesn’t mean that the Cubs have played well.
The Cubs essentially maintained their lead, which was good. But it wasn’t a great month of baseball.
A few things:
-The Cubs were more aggressive at the plate in July. Even Fukudome was swinging at the first pitch, which is not like him. Only recently, it seems, have the Cubs started going back to working opposing pitchers into the deep counts. It worked against Sabathia and Sheets and it worked thiese last two games as well. I’m not neceassarily a believer in pitch counts for EVERYONE, but they certainly have relevance. Working the pitcher is almost always a good strategy.
-The Cubs have become more aggressive on the base paths lately and that’s been a good developement thus far.
-There’s no mistaking it- despite his misplaying balls in the outfield from time to time and his thinking he can hit a ball pitched anywhere within 10 feet of the plate, Soriano adds something to this team’s potency. Going 3-for-5 yesterday not withstanding, the Cubs are just more lethal even if Soriano goes hitless in the game.
It’s great to see we’re getting the approval of the Brewer fans. Thank God we’ve elevated ourselves to such lofty standards. I can be happy again…
Dave – are you really making 20 wins sound like a bad thing? Regardless of how he got them, or how a team acquires a lead, if you look at the end of that stretch, the final numbers are the final numbers, whether they played well or not.
It looks like a line drive in the box score.
Dave – are you really making 20 wins sound like a bad thing? Regardless of how he got them, or how a team acquires a lead, if you look at the end of that stretch, the final numbers are the final numbers, whether they played well or not.
No, 20 wins are not a bad thing. Where did I say that?
What I DID say was that just because a pitcher has 20 wins does not necessarily mean that pitcher pitched well.
In the same way, just because a team expands its lead does not mean that the team played well. And just because a team won a few more games than they lost, it does not mean that they played good baseball.