First Star – Brian Moehler
Second Star – Ted Lilly
Third Star – Geoff Geary
There is not another way to say it. When the offense gets you one run and that comes on a home run, there is no excuse. I remember Roger Clemens used to have this problem when he pitched for the Astros. Each outing he’d give up one or two runs but have his team not score. Ted Lilly was the victim last night as he went seven strong innings, only giving up a homer. This pleased me because his last outing was anything less than desirable. He’s definitely solidified his spot as a very solid third starter in this rotation and I really trust him.I took a look at the Win Probability added by the offense and the pitching last night and it only confirmed my feelings from last night. Here’s a glance at the numbers.Pitching: .002 (but they were at .188 before the Pence double)
What does that mean? Well look at it this way. When you start a game, each team has a 50/50 chance of winning that game. The -.502 means that our hitting essentially gave the game to the Astros. Not only did the offense not add any chance of winning to the team, but they were so bad that they essentially gave that 50% to the Astros. The easiest way to look at it is like a tug of war. Each team starts with the same amount to pull to win the game. That amount is 50%. By the Cubs offense going negative essentially 50% due to the offense, it’s not the pitching’s fault. At the same time, you could argue that the Astros pitching had some hand in the win, but it’s hard to argue that it was more due to someone like Brian Moehler than it was our lack of hitting. Props to Jimmy ballgame for coming up with another home run. That was all we could muster.