You’re going to read and hear a lot of “experts” break down the deal that took place between the Cubs and A’s as well as the deal that took place the day before between Cleveland and Milwaukee. Please don’t buy in wholly to any of them, including this “expert”. It’s not a knock on anyone’s talent or intelligence, it’s simply a fact that trades can’t be evaluated fully until a few years down the road. If there was ever more proof of that statement in a season it’s this one. Both the Tigers and the Mets made major deals in the off-season to pull in potential game changers. Both were essentially anointed the representatives for their respective leagues in the 2008 World Series. Both have gone on to hover around .500. Sometimes you just never know. You just have to wait and see. With that being said, I think the best way for me to break down the deal is to give my thoughts on each of the six players involved and let you decide for yourself. I’ll preface it by saying that I’m pleased with the deal.
Rich Harden – This is the staple of the deal, yet most are skeptical of his health. Obviously when you have a player that has missed the type of time that Harden has missed, you have to enter the deal with a bit of apprehension. At the same time, you have to look at the extreme upside of the deal and the talent of Rich Harden. Let’s take a look at his injury history over the past five years.
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2005 – Missed 34 games due to a strained left oblique.
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2006 – Missed 34 games due to a back strain
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2006 – Missed 129 games due to a sprained right elbow
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2007 – Missed 151 games due to a strained pitching shoulder.
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2008 – Missed 31 games due to a strained pitching shoulder.
When he’s on and healthy, Harden is one of the best pitchers in the game of baseball. He makes very little in relation to the talent he possesses. He’s signed through 2008 at a rate of $4.5 million with a $7 million club option. That’s less than Ted Lilly and less than Jason Marquis, both of whom he is better than. If he pays off, the Cubs have a legit 1-2 combo in 2009 in a division that will see the Brewers lose both of their top two.
Chad Gaudin – No one seems to mention Gaudin in the trade as a key part, but rather as an afterthought. I disagree with that assessment. Gaudin provides the bullpen help we could use with the versatility to be able to pitch out of the rotation if needed next year. He loves to rely on his slider and has good movement on his fastball. A’s fans felt that he was more valuable to their team than Joe Blanton, and that tells me a lot because Blanton has been a very good pitcher for the A’s. Don’t get me wrong, Gaudin isn’t going to dominate the top of the rotation, but he has found his niche in the bullpen and that’s what we had as a need. Ideally, it would have been better if he threw left handed, but I’ll settle. He’s in his arbitration years, which means his salary is low and we’re in control of his next two years. He could turn out to be the gem in the deal.
Matt Murton – Let’s get this straight. Repeat after me. Matt Murton is NOT an all star, nor will he ever get close to being an all star. Murton is a weak hitting, high on base, poor fielding outfielder with low versatility. He’s an average starter on most teams. Losing him, especially when we have no need for him, is not a loss.
Eric Patterson – I was a big Patterson fan from the day he was drafted, but like Murton, he was a player that was ready for Major League time on a team without a spot for him. Those types of players need to be moved and exchanged for other pieces that are needed. Patterson has good speed and works hard, but he doesn’t have the talent potential of his brother. I’m not bothered by losing him either.
Keeping Mum buy Sean Gallagher – The 2008 Minor League Baseball Analyst mentions the following on Gallagher. “Strong/durable pitcher with three average to above pitches and the ability to get hitters out without his best stuff. Keeps the ball down, prevents the long ball, and has good fastball command, keeping hitters off-balance by throwing all three pitches at any time. Improved velocity, but curveball regressed.” They project him as a 4th starter. I have a little higher hopes for Gallagher and like his makeup, but you have to give up talent to get talent in return. At his best, I don’t think Gallagher projects to anywhere near the potential Harden projects to.
Josh Donaldson – A lot of bloggers haven’t heard of Donaldson, which is fine. Some people aren’t as up on the farm system and prefer to focus their efforts on the players involved on the field right now. Donaldson is a pretty good prospect, though. He’s a college guy out of Auburn that was picked in the supplemental part of round 1 last season by the Cubs as compensation for losing Juan Pierre to free agency. Coming into the season, he ranked as the # 7 prospect in the system by Baseball America, but was off to a rough start. What worries me a little is the slow start he’s off to this year after playing so well last year. Some have said that the Cubs made a mistake including him in the deal, but with Geovany Soto playing the way he is, I’m OK with dealing Donaldson. If he wasn’t 22 years old, it may be a different story, but the fact is that if Donaldson develops, you have a log jam at a position you really can’t afford to have a jam at. Deal him now and bank on Geo. Is that really a bad thing?
Athletics Fans React
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Wow. I’m surprised Gaudin left in the deal as well. I hear Donaldson is a “walk machine” and Murton and Patterson seem AAAA talent at best….
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I totally agree. I’m not seeing anything here that was worth losing Gaudin over! He is starter ready and was only put in the bullpen due to Harden’s return in a crowded rotation. I could of let Harden go but Gaudin just crosses the line. I don’t know much about these guys from the cubs but I’m not thinking the cubs fans will miss any of them.
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Murton is more or less Bobby Kielty – that’s useful to the A’s right now, but not terribly exciting. Donaldson is a catcher who appears to be not hitting in A ball. Patterson is a toolsy outfielder who’s hit decently in the minors and is already 25. Gallagher is a young pitcher who’s put up good (but rarely great) numbers at every level in the minors, but hasn’t had major league success. Clearly Beane sees some real upside in at least one of these players, but I’m honestly not sure which.
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The A’s were robbed blind by this trade. Robbed blind. Quite possibly the saddest day of my A’s fan life…Not even someone like Pie? Vitters? And dealing Gaudin too? Jeez
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I honestly don’t think Harden is 100 percent healthy. His last two games were his two worst games of the season and I’m guessing Beane is pulling a quick one because, hell, you have to sell on Harden while you can still get something for him and he isn’t on the DL for the 100th time. Interesting that Cubs fans are delighted about it given that they had two of the most legendary injury prone pitchers of the last decade in Wood and Prior. I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s why Gaudin was included as the Cubs insurance policy in case Harden shows up, pitches one game and winds up back on the DL. I could be wrong, but that’s how I’m viewing this right now. I knew a Harden deal was coming. I could just sense it. But I was hoping Beane would get more for him without having to include Gaudin.
Thoughts from Last Night
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Geo is legit and has me excited. He hit another homer last night and rightfully deserves the starting spot in the all star game.
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Does bat wagging scare you as much as it scares me? When I see guys like Brandon Phillips and Gary Sheffield wag that bat it scares the crap out of me.
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Jerry Hairston got robbed blind all night at the plate. He’s hitting the ball really well and those are going to get through tonight I fear.
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Kudos to Bob Brenly for talking a little trash during an at bat by DeRosa. Harang had him 3-0 and Brenly says something to the effect of “before DeRosa gets walked by Harang, I want to send a birthday wish to….” Harang walked DeRo on the very next pitch.
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Should it really be called an RBI when the hitter walks to bring in the run? RBI means run batted in, but if the hitter doesn’t actually use the bat, that seems weird.
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In the 4th inning, Fukudome had a ball drop in front of him and he went on to throw out Adam Dunn at second on a force because he had to hold up. The hitter is given a fielder’s choice, but when you think about it, Fukudome didn’t really have a “choice” in the matter.
My fear exactly is that Harden turns into Prior v 2.0
I do think that he is tougher than Prior and so will see the field, but I am worried about him.
I don’t really think that the Cubs gave up anything in Murton, Patterson, or Donaldson. Although the team has been high on Donaldson in the past, Josh is really struggling at low A Peoria this year. If you can really struggle with Ryno as your manager, it concerns me a bit. Even if he does turn into an All-Star catcher, you have to remember that we’ve already got one of those… I’m glad that the Cubs got something for him.
Gallagher is the only one that I am sad to lose. He seems to be a legit #3 starter that (contrary to what the A’s fan above sees) I was pretty impressed with. Particularly when you remember that he is only 22 years old and already a legit back of the rotation starter. However, Harden IS a MUCH better pitcher than Sean will be. My only concern about the deal is Harden’s injury history.
“I don’t really think that the Cubs gave up anything in Murton, Patterson, or Donaldson.”
I agree. Donaldson is a long ways off from becoming a major leaguer and it appears, injuries not withstanding, that we have our catcher for a long, long time to come.
Gallagher is the only guy I’m really going to miss. I think he’s got the raw materials to become a very effective pitcher in a year or two.
Patterson is one of those guys I really wanted to see grow into a good player with the Cubs, but he was clearly going to take a little longer. I think he could become solid player…just not for another couple years…with someone else.
I’m glad to see Murton go. I don’t dislike the guy, I just got tired of the Cubs seemingly wasting time on him. Peter Gammons commented that he thought Murton has been the victim of too many hitting coaches. Anyone have any thoughts on that?
Regarding Harden and his injury issues:
Jim Hendry made what I think is an extremely important point in the Trib. Hendry: “He has never had surgery.”
The neysayers who want to evoke the name “Mark Prior” need to grasp the fact that Prior was a man who, to date, has had TWO shoulder surgeries. There’s a big difference.
Also, Harden is supposedly going to go either Friday or Saturday. That’s on 5-6 days rest, so he should be in great shape whenever Lou and Co. decide to send him in.
I love the deal. I do not feel like we needed Harden to make the playoffs. However, our goal is the World Series and I think if healthy the combo of Z, Harden, Dempster, and Lilly gives the Cubs the best 1-4 that I can remember. You may say that 2004 was better, but you must remember that Zambrano was just becoming the No. 1 he is today and that Prior and Wood weren’t great that season. The rotation in 1989 was also very good, but I think this trumps these 4. We didn’t give up much that was going to help us this year or next year. I think this move extends the window of opportunity, just in case we lose Dempster to free agency next season. This is something people aren’t talking about. Gaudin, Marquis, Marshall, and Lieber are all capable of taking a 4th and 5th spot, but finding someone to fill a 2nd or 3rd slot is very difficult and much more expensive than $7 mil.
When it comes down to it I don’t care if Harden’s arm falls off if he assists us in getting a W***d S****s win this year.
Yep. For me it is like getting Harden and Gaudin for Gallagher because it seems to me the rest were basically “who cares” type guys especially for this year. Murton was a cutie though.
So, who do you think will go when Eyre and Soriano come back? Let’s talk it two ways:
1. Who would you send down/out if you could send anyone (regardless of options and waivers and contracts and no-demotion clauses and all that stuff). I’d say adios to Marquis and I suppose Wuertz.
2. Who will you want to send down since options do matter. I can’t answer that one, that’s why I’m asking you guys. Heh heh.
Good post. I agree, 11.5 mil for 1.6 years of Harden sounds like a good deal to me. And I think Harden’s actually going to want to play here.
His interview about the trade suggested just that fact. Dan Haren had some comments concerning the “trade bubble” around Oakland. Basically, when you know you’ve crossed the kind of salary requirements the A’s can handle, the trade buzz surrounds you with such fervor (since everyone knows you’re gone), sometimes for years, that it certainly affects your happiness and performance. Let’s get him home shopping and settled in. Pronto.
Oh, I don’t think JHJ is going to smack the ball around with such impunity tonight as he did vs. Dempster last night. Z will shut the RedLegs down. He’s got to show the new dog who the Alpha is.
Spot on with the alpha dog remark! That will be an interesting dynamic to watch.
Regarding ManInTheBox’s post at 11:17.
To me, the fact that Harden has never had surgery is a big bad sign, not a good one. He’s missed tons of time, for a lot of different injuries — yet none of them were either serious enough for surgery or reparable through surgery.
If Harden had a serious injury, underwent surgery, sat out a year or even two, and them came back, there would be good reason to think he was “over” whatever the injury was. While surgery may have been death to a pitcher’s career in the past, it does seem that over the past few years, a lot of pitchers have had surgery and come back to be very successful. But with Harden, there is no reason to think he’s over anything. He’s just between injuries.
And there is also no basis to suggest that Harden is tougher than Prior. In the past three-and-a-half seasons (2005-2008), Harden’s been out for nearly 3 full seasons. And again, that was for different injuries. There is no reason to think that Harden is tougher.
All that said, hopefully Harden will remain between injuries for the next three months. And if not, I still think it was a good trade, and worth the risk, as the Cubs didn’t really given up anything substantial to get him.
A’s fan quote:
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Interesting that Cubs fans are delighted about it given that they had two of the most legendary injury prone pitchers of the last decade in Wood and Prior. I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s why Gaudin was included as the Cubs insurance policy in case Harden shows up, pitches one game and winds up back on the DL. I could be wrong, but that’s how I’m viewing this right now.
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This is how I feel about the trade after looking at it from a few angles. I think the Cubs were able to get a good pitcher and a potentially great pitcher in exchange for four guys who couldn’t fill any immediate needs of the team. Gaudin is Harden insurance, and Harden was the means by which the Cubs could dump some mediocre talent.
The White Sox might want to thank the Cubs. As often as the A’s have loved to screw with the Sox, the Cubs might have opened some big holes in the team.
it’s termed a fielder’s choice because the fielder technically had the option of throwing the runner out at 2nd or 1st. whether it was a legit option is a different question, but since the ball dropped and fukudome was in a position to toss one of them out, the batter’s given an o-fer on the FC.
I knew Harden had been on the DL 6 times but did not realize the length of time he had serviced there. Now I real have the shakes over this deal. His record makes Prior look like Superman. Hendry can say what he wants but this was a hurry up deal BECAUSE of the Brewer deal. I don’t care what Hendry says, he talks out of both sides of his mouth.