Tuesday, April 29th, 2008
I am cautiously optimistic about the Cubs this year. On the hitting side, it is the first time I have seen Cubs players walk to the plate and look like they have a plan. Whether Fukudome is wearing off on the other players or not, the fact is that the Cubs are more patient at the plate from the top to the bottom of the order (Soriano excluded). Whatever the reason, if they keep it up, the offense shouldn’t have many days like last Sunday. On the pitching side, I am still positive about our bullpen as well. As Howry continues to get warmed up (tough luck on the high outside pitch to Nieves - a couple extra mph would have lead to a different result I think), we have the ability to turn games into a 6 inning affair, similar to what the Astros did a few years ago with Lidge/Dotel/Wagner. If you were losing after 6 to those guys, it was over. The rest of the bullpen will have highs and lows, which is why they’re in middle relief, and Marshall seems as though he can actually accomplish the job he’s being asked to do, which can be a challenge for a starter. As for Lieber, you couldn’t ask for a better long relief man. Even if he’s not having a good day, he’s got enough experience to be left out there to take some lumps without any permanent psychological damage, which can save the rest of the bullpen on “those days.”
Now, starting pitching… We have quantity, but not quality. We have a #1 or #2 starter in Zambrano, and then a bunch of number #3/4 types. It simply may not be enough to win in the playoffs (and that’s all we care about… having a chance for the World Series). We need another ESTABLISHED #1/2 starter to be able to match up with the Arizonas, not to mention the Angels, Red Sox, etc. It is a bit early to tell who may or may not be available in the trade market, but my sense is, not a whole lot. I don’t think landing a guy like Joe Blanton (if he’s even available) helps the team at all. We have 3 Joe Blantons already.
The question is this: assuming there is a top of the rotation guy available at the deadline, is this the year Hendry should push all his chips into the middle? I say yes, and for multiple reasons. I have been hesitant in the past to overpay for guys at the deadline. However, in the past, we’ve always seemed to be more than one guy away from being true contenders, so we might as well keep our guys and see if we can catch lightening in a bottle in the playoffs. This year, I think we CAN win as constructed if we can add one top of the rotation starter (not saying we will - the playoffs in baseball are a crapshoot - see 2005 White Sox). You can throw on top of that the fact that the Cubs are just atrocious at developing talent (or they simply don’t identify it well to begin with). Zambrano is the only homegrown Cub on this team with a shot at the All Star team. I have heard about all these guys in our organization that are going to be great in a couple years, and it hardly ever happens (Have you seen the list of Cub #1 draft picks - http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/history/draft/first_picks.jsp?feature=chc - a veritable who’s who of guys who never became stars or even played in the Majors). The best players that come up seem to be the guys that fly under the radar (Zambrano was not a top prospect as I recall, and no one expected this out of Soto).
If trading away Sean Gallagher and a handful of other guys will land a legitimate stud (again, not a #3 starter), let it fly. The Cubs are built to win now. Its best players (In no particular order - Lee, Ramirez, Fukudome, Soriano, Wood, Lilly, DeRosa, Howry, etc..) are in their 30s with the remainder in their baseball prime (Zambrano, Marmol, Theriot, Cedeno, Soto, etc…). This is not a team or a franchise that should be “building for the future.” The Cubs as presently constructed are likely to never be as good as they are now unless they continue to develop talent to replace the older players (see comments above) or the younger players become better, which is unlikely given their ages. I just don’t see any Cubs prospect as being able to improve the Cubs’ chances of winning a World Series title this year or next. At most, we’d get a Joba-type guy who can add depth to the bullpen, but in the playoffs, you only need 3 reliable relievers, assuming you have the quality starters who will get you 6-7 innings. The Cubs SHOULD have that come October.
All that being said, I don’t think Hendry should just ignore offense either. If he can add a real CF or even a RF (moving Fukudome to CF), he should go for it. As much as I also like DeRosa (he may be the best bargain on this team), I see 2B as an area where we could improve. SS also - I like Theriot/Cedeno, but let’s face it, this has more to do wit lowered expectations and the fact that they’re better than we thought they’d be than with them being above average players. Either would be expendable in a trade package, assuming the other could play SS or you’d get a SS in return. I think Cedeno has really improved this year (you could just tell that he wasn’t going to strike out in those ABs against the Mets last week as he would have in the past - and that was in a huge spot), but he’s a bench player on a World Series contender. That improved trade value could come in handy.
Bottom line - I hope to God Hendry pushes his roverbial chips into the middle this summer, assuming there’s a trade to be made. of course, with the Cubs luck, this will be the summer when no one will become available.
I am interested to see what others think.
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