If you didn’t already know it, Fan Graphs has taken some cool data on pitch usage as well as velocity over the past three seasons. I decided to take a look at some of the members of our staff to see if we notice anything. What will we pull from the data? Who knows, maybe nothing. Let’s take a look.
Carlos Zambrano
A lot have said that big Z has lost some velocity on his fastball, yet he maintains that he hasn’t. Let’s let the data do the talking here. The following are the average velocities of his fastball over the past three seasons.
2005 - 92.8 mph
2006 - 92.2 mph
2007 - 91.6 mph
On the whole it doesn’t look drastic, but there is no doubt that the fastball has, in fact, declined in velocity. Whether or not that indicates any type of dead arm or concealed injury is up to you to speculate. One thing I know is that it bears watching this year to see if the decline continues. If he averages in the range slightly below 91 this year, I’m going to be a little concerned.
As for pitch usage, I noticed something interesting about his pitch selection. In 2005, his usage of the slider was roughly 16% of the time and he used his cutter just 1%. Fast forward to last year and you see roughly the same fastball usage, but the slider use has declined to 13% with the cutter use increasing to 9%. That’s a significant change and I wonder if it’s the result of his feeling less confident in the slider or more confident in the cutter.
Ted Lilly
Lilly appears to provide absolutely nothing to discuss other than his consistency in approach. His pitch usage breaks down to 56% fastball, 15% slider, 17% curveball, and 12% changeup. His fastball averaged a velocity of 88.4 mph.
The only other thing worth noting about Lilly’s pitch usage is his increase in curveball usage from 2005 - 2007 as he’s gone from 13.6% to 16.9%.
Rich Hill
I was very excited to look up Hill’s numbers because I wanted to see if he had changed anything over the past two years as he begins the process of being a legit Major League starting pitcher. What I found was exactly that. Hill did make a change last year.
2006 Pitch Usage - Fastball (70%), Curveball (23.4%), Changeup (5.0%)
2007 Pitch Usage - Fastball (60.6%), Curveball (27.3%), Changeup (8.3%)
He threw some sliders in there as well, but not really worth mentioning. What I see is a pitcher who is beginning to trust his off speed and breaking stuff a little more and rely less on his fastball. It’s no secret that his curve is one of the best in the Majors and it’s good to see him begin to trust it more.
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Interesting stuff! Thanks.
Can you explain a little about where you got your info? The pitch usage stuff is great, but I’d like a little more context about the velocity data. I’ve always assumed that pitch velocity is an incredibly arbitrary number that is basically tailored for impressing a TV audience. From the sounds of it though, you have a consistent point of reference. If true, thats all that matters. I think it would be fascinating to compare Zambrano’s numbers to the other “power” arms in the game…Oswalt, Beckett, etc. How do the raw numbers match up with perception, and most importantly, results?
Great post.
And comparing Hill to someone like Zito through the years would be fantastic too.
I’ve noticed Zambrano’s extra use of his cutter for some time and it’s frustrating beyond belief. When he used to throw that sinker almost exclusively, he was dominating. He adds in that cutter and he starts getting hit harder. I really hope he significantly reduces the amount he throws that pitch in 2008, but I’m not holding my breath.
Maddog, I’m glad you noticed it, because I just posted it on your blog.
I remember when Zambrano first came to the big leagues he was very dominating, had an extremely low ERA and gave up very few home runs. It seems that as he is maturing as a pitcher and his pitch selection is changing he is giving up that long ball a lot more often. Still not enough to lose sleep over, just something I’ve noticed. I don’t have any statistics to back this up, just something I recall.
One more comment that I’d like to add. If the website is “The View From The Bleacher” shouldn’t the picture on the top be looking in at home plate, not out at the bleachers.
Think about this lineup
Theriot
Fukudome
Ramirez
Soriano
Lee
DeRosa
Soto
Pie
P
With this lineup Aramis brings good average, good power and is backed up by Soriano with another power bat and Lee afterward who may be in decline after his spring showing thus far. Imagine Roberts at the top of that lineup and the OBP would be awesome.
I try not to think about any lineup that has Ryan Theriot leading off.
Kevin, your exact question was discussed earlier this week. Here’s Joe’s response:
http://viewfromthebleachers.com/blog/2008/03/12/dudewhy/#comment-9858
Thanks Joe–these stats are great. I hadn’t seen them yet on Fan Graphs, and now I can’t stop. My boss thanks you for the lack of my productivity, too.
One thing that I notice with Big Z’s pitch speeds is that there’s a little less velocity difference between his fastball and offspeed offerings seen in 2007 compared to previous years. For example, the difference between his fastball and slider went from 11.5 mph in 2005 to 10.9 mph in 2006 to 10.0 in 2007. Additionally, the difference between his fastball and splitter went from 8.0 in 2005 to 7.9 in 2006 to 7.8 in 2007. I haven’t looked at anybody else’s stats for comparison, but it would seem that less difference in velocity would favor the hitter, and the climbing ERA over these three years matches that.
On the other hand, one thing about Zambrano was that he seemed to get caught up in overthrowing more in previous years than he has lately. Maybe the dip in fastball velocity is simply part of his maturation process in trusting the movement of his fastball more than him thinking he had to throw in as hard as he could to get it by hitters?
Has anyone else seen this new Brian Roberts Rumor?
http://www.bugsandcranks.com/chicago-cubs/fine-now-can-we-have-brian-roberts/
I know we’ve discussed it here before, but this just way to much to give up for a 30 year old, injury prone, lead off man. Do we really want to block E.P. for two more years?
That’s the newest of the “offers” said to be in place. I don’t think much of the speculation going round.
If this deal gets done, I think it’s a sure sign that Hendry wants, and perhaps needs, to win the WS now.