A few weeks ago, a reader asked for a breakdown of exactly what kind of wins we could expect out of each slot in the rotation. To answer this question, I took the top starters from each team in terms of number of starts and then added the highest win total as the number one starter and so on down the line through the fifth spot in the rotation. What I found confirmed, yet again, that the Cubs are well above average in the starting pitching department. Here is a breakdown of the wins by rotation spot for every team in 2007 along with the average by team and rotation spot.
Can we finally put away the debate about whether or not the Cubs needed to go out and get Bedard? I’m perfectly content with what we have in house going into this season.
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We’ve got 3 spots left for our team. If you have no idea what I’m talking about, here was the post about it.
No Joe. We need to continually ignore the numbers and expect all five spots in the rotation to win at least 15 games.
I agree that I feel comfortable with the rotation as it stands right now. What I am not comfortable with is Rich Hill and Ted Lilly as our 2 & 3 once the postseason rolls around. I think I speak for everyone when I say a 2nd consectutive division crown is great but aren’t we all hoping for that elusive ring. Bedard was a way to counter Arizona’s 1-2 punch.
But was the amount of improvement we would have gained with say Bedard as our number 2 instead of Lilly worth that much in prospects? I don’t think it was.
If you were talking about getting Santana, I’d have to ask how much? Bedard? Not so much. I’m glad they stood pat on that end.
Although I’m not enamored with the back half of the rotation, at least Hendry has quite a few options for Lou to look over this year.
Oh, well the post didn’t say was Bedard “worth it”. You said “put away the debate about whether or not the Cubs needed to go out and get Bedard?”
It was not WORTH it. but they could definitely need him and there is problem with your analysis.
First off you’re using last years numbers where i’m guessing Sean Marshall is in one of those spots and his replacement this year will likely be worse
Second of all you’re using “wins” which doesn’t really tell us much about the quality of the pitching.
And three, you’re asking about the improvement in Bedard over Lilly, when actually it would be Bedard over the #5 guy, cuz Lilly is still pitching. And in the playoffs, Bedard would be replacing our #4 starter.
So I would say the improvement Bedard makes is in fact something the Cubs should’ve went after (but again, not worth the price in the end).
At the same time Boomer, this is just another look at the production by spot in the rotation. Here is a related post
The Cubs have a very good rotation, solid and deep. This post was very timely, as Dugout Central has a story that says our rotation is “Zambrano and a box of chocolates”. WTF?