A lot of Cub fans I know are pumped about Kosuke and his ability to both hit for power and get on base. I admit to being more of a pessimist than an optimist, but I must warn you, don’t expect too much!
I agree its easy to get excited about a .438 OBP, .653 SLG, and 31 homers in 496 at bats last year in Japan for Fukudome. And in 2005 (injured in a lot of ‘06) a .401 OBP, .601 SLG, with 34 homers in 528 at bats. Great numbers. But that is Japan folks.
Let’s look at some career numbers of some other highly regarded Japanese imports. Career numbers may not be the best way to look at it, but I think it still holds true even when looking at recent performance. Career numbers just makes it easier on me while I waste my employers dollars!
Hideki Matsui
Japan: .304/.413/.582. Over 35 homers for 7 straight years.
America: .295/.371/.485. Averages just under 25 homers a year.
Ichiro
Japan: .355/.418/.524. Annual homers in the teens, topped at 25.
America: .333/.379/.437. Homers topped at 15, single digits 5 of 7 years.
Kaz Matsui
Japan: .309/.362/.484. Hit 36 and 33 homers his last two years there.
America: .272/.325/.387. 17 homers in over 1300 at bats.
Akinori Iwamura
Japan: .296/.365/.512. Hit 32 and 44 homers his last two years there.
America: .285/.359/.411. Only first year…hit 7 homers in 491 at bats.
So what do these guys have in common? The drop in SLG is nearly 100 points in each case. The drop in OBP is 30-40 points except in Iwamura’s case. So, what do I expect out of Kosuke Fukudome?
Japan: .302/.388/.537
I think a .290/.365/.455 line would make sense (maybe even optimistic!) when comparing to these other prized imports.
And guess what? 290/365/455 is Matt Murton, who makes less than $500k!
Tags: Kosuke Fukudome
January 25th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
It’s interesting to see someone be the voice of reason and keep people from going into the clouds with their expectations on Fukudome.
My biggest fear is that they will go into the year with huge expectations and then boo the guy if he starts the first two weeks hitting under .200
January 25th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
Oh, all stats taken from www.thebaseballcube.com
January 25th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
Joe, I completly agree. The Cub faithful will boo when they realize he’s not the 30 homer hitter they expected. Especially with Lou penciling him in at #5. He should be the #2 hitter, no question about it.
January 25th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
Yes,
I would love to see Fukudome hit in the #2 slot too.
Then again, I want to see Fonz hit in the 5 spot and that ain’t happening…
January 25th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
I’d say those numbers are right on. A little more pop than Jones, which may help, but really not that much better than Murton.
How about his defensive numbers? He’s got to be better than Murton there…..I hope.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
From what I’ve read, Fukudome is going to be a great defensive RF’er. But is that worth $12 mil a year? I would’ve went in a different direction, but that’s a whole other topic.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
He’s supposed to be a great defensive player with an above average arm. Not an ichiro arm, but good.
January 25th, 2008 at 11:07 pm
His salary is made up with the marketing value. Unless the flag ad does them in.
He’s better in the field than Murton, by a long shot. But, I agree, he might not out hit Murton. Especially if Murton is in Texas.
January 26th, 2008 at 9:59 am
Considering how atrocious are outfield was defensively last year, I’ll take it.
I’m a Murton fanboy to a point, but if there’s a better option I say this was it.
January 26th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
**Considering how atrocious are outfield was defensively last year, I’ll take it.**
Since when was the Cubs OF bad defensively last year?
If I recall correctly, the Cubs had some of the best OF defensive efficiency numbers in all of baseball.
January 26th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
A little more on the defense thing…
Soriano ranked, among most, if not all, defensive metrics, as the best defensive LF in the game. Jones/Pie were very good in CF. Jones/Murton/Floyd/Ward were actually much better than people think. The RF defense wasn’t great, but it wasn’t awful either.
Overall the Cubs had a strong defensive outfield last year.