One of the coolest things to do in the off-season, especially now that the winter meetings are done and baseball heads into a bit of a lull is to look back at the season that was and see what we can mine from it. I did that a few days ago with the cost of production from the 2007 Cubs as well as the look at how well our pitching staff performed. It’s that time again, with a look at how the Cubs lineup stacked up by position against the rest of baseball.
For this study, I used the stat OPS+, which is an adjusted look at On Base % + Slugging. What this does is take the park a player plays in out of the equation. It attempts to balance the playing field a little. An OPS+ of 150 or more is excellent, while an OPS+ of 50 or less is poor. I broke down the main contributor by position for each team in baseball last year below. Leaders by position are highlighted in yellow.
After looking at the data, I notice a few things that can either encourage us or worry us.
We were below average at the catcher position, though we already probably knew that. What was surprising, at least to some, was that we were also below average at the SS, CF & RF position. RF figures to improve significantly with the Fukudome signing, but as of right now, I see a regression even further at CF with Pie in that spot and hole at shortstop with Theriot in that spot. I know people like to think Theriot is a great player, but look at the numbers. He had an On Base % of just .326. Very few teams had a SS with less production last year than the Cubs with Theriot.
Tampa Bay, Anaheim, Minnesota & Oakland all had DH’s with OPS+ below 100. All the guy has to do is hit. Can’t they find someone a little better?
The New York Yankees had a beast of a lineup, but we already knew that.
Where did Carlos Pena come from for Tampa Bay? This was a guy that the Rays practically pulled off the scrap heap. He comes in and posts the highest production in all of baseball for first base.
The C, SS & CF position appear to be the lowest offensive positions in baseball. That being said, it makes me feel a little better to know that those are our weak spots in the lineup.
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Amen, on Theriot. I’m not understanding why there’s so much Theriot Kool Ade being served. He’s an average at best SS.
Very good post…
I have said for a while that Theriot isn’t very good, but it makes people mad. Because he is scrappy. And hustles. But I really don’t care. He still isn’t very good, even when he scraps and hustles.
As for RF… I am not so sure that it will be "significantly" better. I can see it being better, but not necessarily significantly so. Now of course, he should be MUCH better defensively that Murton/Floyd/Ward. But I don’t see him putting up numbers much better than what the RF conglomeration did last year. The Cubs RFers put up a combined line of .293/.375/.419. I would be expect Fukudome’s OBP to be a bit lower than .375 and his power to be similar, or maybe slightly better. To expect "significant" improvement is probably setting our expectations too high.
I concur about Theriot. By the way Matt I posted my column for tomorrow BEFORE I read this comment. You’ll see.
This is great stuff, it really hits the nail on the head about The-Riot. What is the plan w/ Roberts then? Move DeRosa to SS?
I read that one of the reasons Theriot numbers declined was because he had never played a full MLB season like 2007. He was not prepared for such a long season. I am not ready to take him off the starting line up. I say keep him. He plays hard and that is what we need. I would rather take a chance on him than try a new SS. Unless Jeter is looking for a change.
**I read that one of the reasons Theriot numbers declined was because he had never played a full MLB season like 2007. **
Except he didn’t really decline.
OPS, by month
April: 675
May: 697
June: 548
July: 920
August: 668
Sept/Oct: 520
He had one good month, three poor months, and two awful months.
**He plays hard and that is what we need.**
Thats the problem. People think that he is important because he "plays hard." I would play hard too… that doesn’t mean that I should be in the starting lineup. He was one of the offensive players in baseball (in a starting lineup).
I really don’t care how hard he plays if he isn’t that good. And he really isn’t that good.
Here is what I find amazing. Fans are willing to question Theriot play in 2007. However, many of those same fans are willing to accept Marquis and Dempster as part of our ptiching staff. For me, at least, I have more confidence in Theriot at SS than Marquis in the rotation or Dempster in the bullpen/rotation. Given Theriot’s salary, I also would rather have him on my team than Marquis and Dempster.
Theriot’s play is not the reason we did not play better last year. He did what is is suppose to do. He played average to slightly better than average SS and and the numbers listed by ddave, only shows me that Theriot should be batting towards the bottom of the order. It appears some fans want Theroit to be a leader on this team. That will not happen. We have too many so called stars, who make a ton of money, who are supposed to do that. They did not and that is why, last year, we did not play better.
Here is to a better 2008.
Yes, Jose we know your love for players with a salary of under $500,000. Ronny Cedeno fits that bill, do you like him too?
Second, you can’t argue Theriot vs. Dempster and Marquis. They don’t play the same position, and contribute to the roster completely differently. Marquis only takes the mound once out of every five days, how can you even compare that to an everyday position player?
It’s posts like that that really grind my gears. Joe goes out of his way, and sometimes myself, to put up posts that give numeric values and stats that show theses guys are either better than you think (Dempster) or not as good as you think (Theriot), but it’s like talking to a brick wall.
As for the stars comment. I’d say we we may have some "stars" but the team lacks leadership.
That’s the thing, Jose. Theriot DIDN’T play average to better than average SS.
His 72 OPS+ was 21 points below the league average and 28 points below what the OPS+ creators consider average.
The only SS worse than him were:
- John McDonald (TOR)
- Omar Vizquel (SF)
- Bobby Crosby (OAK)
- Tony Pena (KC)
- Adam Everett (HOU)
- Julio Lugo (BOS)
With the exception of possibly Lugo, who had a rough year adjusting to the big market of Boston, all of those guys are garbage. I wish I could say Theriot outranked some of the good ones, but I can’t. The numbers just won’t let me.
I’m not saying I don’t like Theriot or the way he plays. I think he definitely needs to have a part on this team. I’m just not sure the everyday SS spot is the part for him.
One final note to hopefully increase my argument. In 2005, the year we got a full season out of Neifi Perez, he posted an OPS+ of 75, 3 points higher than Theriot did in 2007. I didn’t hear people clamoring for his spot to stay solid.
**Fans are willing to question Theriot play in 2007. However, many of those same fans are willing to accept Marquis and Dempster as part of our ptiching staff.**
Marquis and Dempster were both league average pitchers. Marquis had an ERA+ of 101 and Dempster had a 99.
Theriot wasn’t close to league average.
**With the exception of possibly Lugo, who had a rough year adjusting to the big market of Boston, all of those guys are garbage.**
Not only that, but I think that most of them play far superior defense. So Theriot is one of the worst offensive SS’s in the game, but he is not one of the best defensive SSs in the game.
Matt:
You will never find a post from me praising Cedeno. So I am not sure I get the point of your sarcasm. We all want a roster full of 300 hitters ñ but that will not happen. When building a long term roster, you need a balance of high price stars with low price players. Theriot fits the second criteria. Your point about comparing Theriot, Marquis and Dempster is not valid. They all play for the same team and have a job to do. However, they did not contribute equally. Theriot added value, Marquis did not, Dempster may have had acceptable stats, but he caused a big spike in antacid sales whenever he pitched. Also, if we did not have Marquis and Dempster, we would have about $13MM to spend on other players. Maybe a 300 hitting SS, to keep you happy.
Joe:
I do not disagree with your numbers, but you are overlooking one BIG point. Theriot was basically a rookie last year. There is no way you can expect him to hit 300 and field 1000 in his rookie year. How many of the SS, that had better stats than Theriot, were first year SS? He showed us 110% on every game and every play. He earned and deserves to be our starting SS next year. However, your numbers prove that he should bat towards the bottom of the order.
Jose,
So if Theriot gets the starting nod this year and performs the same, does it mean it’s time for a change?
Joe:
Good question. Here is my take.
1. If he struggles offensively and is batting second, I would move him to the bottom of the order. Assuming he does not make a ton of errors to start the season.
2. If he struggles offensively and defensively, I would give him some time to play through his stuggles. The length of time depends on how the team is playing. If we are winnning games, I would give him more time. If we are losing games, I would give him less time. If he does not improve, I would bench him. Problem is, after that, who plays SS.
Joe:
With all the debating back and forth about our SS position. I forgot to mention the one part of your post that I loved. My dad, a long time Cubs fan who just past away, always taught me that the main criteria for selecting your C, CF, and SS should be defense first and then offense. Since these positions are the heart of your defense.
With all the emphasis on offensive numbers lately, it appears that teams are still looking at defense first for those postions. Or maybe it is just harder to find solid hitting C, SS, and CF.
Good observation, Jose
**However, they did not contribute equally. Theriot added value, Marquis did not**
What?!?! Marquis did not add value?
Theriot had a VORP (value over replacement player) of 6.6.
Marquis had a VORP of 16.5
**He earned and deserves to be our starting SS next year. **
How so? I really don’t understand how being one of the worst offensive players in baseball while playing decent, but not good, defense earns or deserves anything.
**If he struggles offensively and defensively, I would give him some time to play through his stuggles.**
Except he struggles most of last year. What makes you think that he will be able to play through his struggles this year?
**With all the emphasis on offensive numbers lately, it appears that teams are still looking at defense first for those postions.**
Sure… but Theriot is not a very good defensive player, which he really needs to be to make up for his bad offense. He is a solid player - he won’t make a lot of errors, but he also has limited range. He is definitely not one of the better defensive SS’s in the game.