Archive for May, 2007

Why I Failed Science

Saturday, May 26th, 2007

I’ve been lamenting for years that since the inception of interleague play, the Cubs or Sox’s season hinged on their first series. It had seemed to me that which ever team won the first series, started on a roll, while the other faltered to mediocrity. Perhaps my warped little mind had too much Old Style flowing when I came up with this theory.

As I listened to the series last week, I thought for sure this would be the turning point in the season. The Cubs took two of three, and were surely on their way now. As this past week progressed, I did a little research. What I found was that I need to stop coming up with theories.

Year Wins Losses vs. Sox W/L before series W/L after series
1997 68 94 1-2 27-40 40-51
1998* 90 73 3-0 34-24 53-49
1999 67 95 2-4 32-24 35-68
2000 65 97 3-3 25-35 38-60
2001 88 74 2-4 36-21 50-51
2002 67 95 3-3 26-38 38-56
2003* 88 74 2-4 39-32 47-40
2004 89 73 4-2 40-32 48-39
2005 79 83 3-3 18-20 59-61
2006 66 96 2-4 17-23 48-71

Basically, what I learned is that one series cannot determine the outcome of a season. We may think the Cubs/Sox series is a big deal, but it really doesn’t amount to a hill of beans. The Cubs have managed two series wins against the Southsiders. 2004, being the only season we expected a playoff, and possibly a World Series run, and we all remember how that turned out. The saving grace in 2003, was the Cubs impressive 19-9 record in the month of September. Otherwise, it was a .500 club, which certainly solidifies the theory of one or two good months can make a season. The rest of the year is .500.

In the meantime, I’m going back to creating some hair brained theories while under the influence. I wonder what creative genius Bud will make me…..

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Game 46 – Enough Already

Saturday, May 26th, 2007


May 25th, 2007

Teams

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9   R H E
Chicago 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 0 0   8 13 0
Los Angeles 1 0 2 0 2 0 0 4 X   9 12 2
W –  R. Seanez (2-0)   L  – W. Ohman (0-2)  S – T. Saito (15)
Homeruns: J. Kent (8)

Box Score

I’m not sure if the Cubs deserved to win this game or not. When you go down 5-0 and rely on a 7 run inning, do you really deserve to win? I don’t think so, but the fans don’t deserve another epic bullpen meltdown like last night. I’d like to highlight the comment section from the open thread. Hopefully it says it all. Keep in mind that it is not edited for spelling or grammar.

  • Jock Jones could not throw a strike from the outfield to home plate if his life depended on it. If I were an opposing 3rd base coach, I would run on him every single freaking time I had a chance!
  • I think they do run on him every single freaking time.
  • I am watching the biggest meltdown …I can’t even talk/type. Fire them all.
  • I hate being a Cubs fan!!! This bullpen is full of a bunch of overpaid losers.
  • Time to send a message and hold someone accountable for this mess now, Lou, before it is really too late. How long are we going to put up with this level of suck?
  • Thanks again for the infamous bullpen of Howry, “Bad Omen” Ohman, and the rest, my day has been ruined…Lou; please make some drastic changes now. Otherwise it will soon be too late.
  • I can’t believe I stayed up to watch it. What a waste of time!

    Gotta win the next two to finish .500 for the west coast trip, which was my goal.

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  • Game 46 – Open Thread

    Friday, May 25th, 2007

    Scouting Report on todays starters from MLB.com
    Ted Lilly – Lilly hung on long enough for the win in his last start against the White Sox. The lefty gave up three runs on six hits over seven innings while striking out six. Lilly leads the National League in strikeout/walk ratio, fanning 54 while walking just 10. His start was pushed back because the Cubs didn’t want to have their three lefty starters going back to back to back.

    Derek Lowe – Lowe suffered through an unlucky three-run fifth inning against the Angels in his most recent start. All five hits that inning were ground balls, three not leaving the infield, but it was enough to beat him. He leads the league in complete games, but both were losses as his club scored one run total on his behalf. He struck out six without a walk.

    View the Cubs career numbers vs. Derek Lowe – ESPN Splits


    Notable Performances From Down On The Farm

    Josh Lansford (Low-A) 2-4, HR, 2RBI, 2R, (.281avg)
    Russ Canzler (Low-A) 2-4, 2B, HR, 2RBI, 2R, (.273avg)

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    This Is Getting Ridiculous

    Friday, May 25th, 2007

    I hate trashing people that can’t really defend themselves because they’re dead, but this is getting out of hand. When MLB was notified that Josh Hancock had passed away in an auto accident, I felt bad for him and his family. It’s tough to lose someone you love, especially so suddenly. Then it was found that he had not only alcohol, but also drugs in his system while he was driving and talking on the cell phone. My sympathy level dropped a great deal, but I still felt bad for his family. Now, word comes out that they are suing not only the restaurant that served him the alcohol, but also the towing company who was assisting the broken down motorist on the highway.

    The father of Josh Hancock filed suit Thursday, claiming a restaurant provided drinks to the St. Louis Cardinals relief pitcher even though he was intoxicated prior to the crash that killed him.

    The suit, filed in St. Louis Circuit Court by Dean Hancock of Tupelo, Miss., does not specify damages. Mike Shannon’s Restaurant, owned by the longtime Cardinals broadcaster who starred on three World Series teams in the 1960s, is a defendant in the case along with Shannon’s daughter, Patricia Shannon Van Matre, the restaurant manager.
    Other defendants include Eddie’s Towing, the company whose flatbed tow truck was struck by Hancock’s sport utility vehicle in the early hours of April 29; tow truck driver Jacob Edward Hargrove; and Justin Tolar, the driver whose stalled car on Interstate 64 was being assisted by Hargrove.

    The fact is, Josh Hancock was irresponsible in his actions, paid the price and people need to move on and quit trying to skirt the responsibility here. His father needs to quit being a complete jack ass and stop bringing people that did not make poor decisions into this mess. My sympathy for this guy and his family has now reached 0.

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    Game 45 – I Hate the West Coast

    Friday, May 25th, 2007


    May 25th, 2007

    Teams

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9   R H E
    Chicago 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2   3 7 0
    San Diego 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   1 5 0
    W –  B. Howry (2-3)   L  – C. Meredith (1-2)  S – R. Dempster (10)
    Homeruns: None

    Box Score

    It’s about time we win a game like this. As usual, I wasn’t able to make it through the entire game and was forced to catch the end on MLB.tv. I wish I had a lot to add to this one, but I don’t. Jason Marquis continues to look very sharp, but then again, I believe I had that on when we signed him. In December I put together a post called “What I Expect From The 2007 Chicago Cubs Starting Pitchers”.

    Jason Marquis, who Cubs fans seem less than thrilled to have, should round out the rotation, assuming he doesn’t get booted by a healthy Mark Prior or a suddenly emergent farmhand like Angel Guzman, Sean Marshall, or Carlos Marmol. You can complain all you want on this one, but i’m not budging. I like this signing and I think Marquis is a lot better than the numbers he put up last season. Sometimes you have to play a hunch and that’s what Hendry’s done. When the Cardinals too a chance on Chris Carpenter, no one thought it would work out the way it has. Here are his numbers in Toronto.

    2000: 10-12 with an ERA of 6.26
    2001: 11-11 with an ERA of 4.09
    2002: 4-5 with an ERA of 5.28

    Suddenly, he goes to St. Louis and wins 15 games, posting an ERA of 3.46. The next year, he wins the Cy Young with an ERA of 2.83. Last year an ERA of 3.09 was coupled with 15 more wins. Sometimes guys just need a need start. The Cubs have given that to Marquis and I think we’ll see the benefits of it. Will we get Chris Carpenter type numbers? No, but at the number five spot, all I want is double digit wins.

    In other news, Wade Miller is just about ready to “return”. He’s slated for another minor league rehab start and then the Cubs will need to make a decision on if they want to add him to the rotation. Sean Marshall looked good in his first start, so another good one would probably mean Miller will be on the outside looking in.

    Last, but not least, be sure to check out our podcast. We talked yesterday about Roger Clemens, Elijah Dukes, and Jason Giambi. It was a good show. Here is the link to the episode.

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