MLB.com writer John Schlegel posted something that’s mentioned in the blogging community but not often on the big money sites: P/PA. Read it and come back; the rest of this post will wait for you.
Here’s an exerpt:
That’s where the patience factor comes in, and those hitters who demonstrate an ability to keep an at-bat going can make an impact on a game even if they don’t wind up getting a hit. Whether it’s extending a starter’s pitch count or wearing him down so the next guy gets something good to hit, the patient and/or pesky hitter makes a difference.
However, right there in the article was evidence that p/pa doesn’t predict success at the plate:
The bottom of the patience barrel certainly isn’t a bunch of guys who can’t hit. There are seven All-Stars in the mix, a defending MVP in Guerrero and the Yankees haven’t minded Cano swinging early in the count while putting up numbers that have him being mentioned for AL Rookie of the Year.
But a lineup of the top 10 are ceratinly going to kick the crap out of a lineup of the bottom ten.
The Top 10
1. Bobby Abreu, Phillies, 4.41
2. David Dellucci, Rangers, 4.31
3. Adam Dunn, Reds, 4.30
4. Jim Edmonds, Cardinals, 4.27
5. Casey Blake, Indians, 4.26
6. Pat Burrell, Phillies, 4.21
7. Brad Wilkerson, Nationals, 4.20
8. Jason Giambi, Yankees, 4.18
9. Paul Konerko, White Sox, 4.18
10. Bill Hall, Brewers, 4.17
The Bottom 10
1. Robinson Cano, Yankees, 3.01
2. Cristian Guzman, Nationals, 3.14
3. Garret Anderson, Angels, 3.28
4. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels, 3.29
5. Neifi Perez, Cubs, 3.31
6. Carl Crawford, Devil Rays, 3.31
7. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies, 3.32
8. Shea Hillenbrand, Blue Jays, 3.34
9. Jose Guillen, Nationals, 3.35
10. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays, 3.36
The Baseball muse put up this analysis of p/pa. Summary: it has little correlation to statistical measures of offensive success.
The great Keith Woolner on BP wrote this article. Summary: more of a call for more research, but it hints that aggressively going after pitches early in the count works for some guys and statistically points out the obvious: if you get to 12 pitches in an at-bat, you have the advantage.
This from The Howl picks on Corey and Neifi. That’s the only justification for its inclusion.
I’d like to know more about this. Calling all readers: where can I do more research on the value of p/pa?