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March 2016

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COMMENTS

Jake Arrieta's Contract – You Make the Call

Written by , Posted in General

This comes from MLB Trade Rumors:

The Cubs needn’t be in a rush to extend ace Jake Arrietaopines ESPN’s David Schoenfield. Arrieta’s camp is seeking a seven-year deal according to multiple reports, and while his 2015 results stack up with any pitcher in the game, Schoenfield notes that Arrieta, unlike other pitchers to command seven-year deals, hasn’t first proven himself capable of delivering consecutive 200-inning, 30-start seasons. Arrieta will hit free agency at the age of 32, which makes him older than a typical free agent. However, he’s also thrown fewer innings in the Majors and minors combined than his peers that have inked seven-year deals by a fairly wide margin. Schoenfield also points out that president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer seem to prefer to build around position players, as evidenced by their young core. Of course, the duo shelled out $155MM for Jon Lester just over a year ago, so it’s not as if the Cubs’ top decision-makers are entirely averse to long-term deals for pitchers.

So I ask you, what would you do with Jake? Would you give him seven years right now or risk the price going up or losing him to free agency all together? What would you do?

  • cap’n realist

    I’d extend him. He’s as mechanically sound a pitcher as there s in the game, and while that certainly isn’t a guarantee that he won’t go down with an injury, it’s a nice hedge against it. If you truly want to win the series now, make him happy now and get his best effort now.

    • Doc Raker

      OK, Jim Hendry, pay them like champions and they will play like champions. It doesn’t work that way. Mark Prior had ‘great mechanics’ nuff said.

      • CBPtOSU

        Can you imagine if he had stayed healthy through 2008 (his free agency year), and performed at a high level and then fallen off the wagon? We would have been stuck with a $150m albatross. Better that he was hurt while we had him under control.

    • Doc Raker

      Also, did you know there is a performance spike for players in contract years? That’s right, players play better when they are motivated to get something, not after they get it, maybe the profit motive has something to do with it. Bernie Sanders might disagree but it is a statistical fact that players perform better before they get the big contract.

      • CBPtOSU

        Like dempster. The only years he pitched good were his contract years, 2008 and 2012.

      • AC0000000

        Like dempster. The only years he pitched good were his contract years, 2008 and 2012.

  • cap’n realist

    I’d extend him. He’s as mechanically sound a pitcher as there s in the game, and while that certainly isn’t a guarantee that he won’t go down with an injury, it’s a nice hedge against it. If you truly want to win the series now, make him happy now and get his best effort now.

    • Doc Raker

      OK, Jim Hendry, pay them like champions and they will play like champions. It doesn’t work that way. Mark Prior had ‘great mechanics’ nuff said.

      • AC0000000

        Can you imagine if he had stayed healthy through 2008 (his free agency year), and performed at a high level and then fallen off the wagon? We would have been stuck with a $150m albatross. Better that he was hurt while we had him under control.

  • CBPtOSU

    Wait until after this season to lock him up. I don’t want to take the risk that he turns into Mark Prior. Speaking of which, the Cubs announced yesterday Mark Prior would be getting a statue of him built outside Wrigley Field. It’s going to be made of glass, and the right arm and shoulder are going to be heavily bandaged.

    • Eddie Von White

      Good one, CAPS.

    • Bartz

      Nice! I’d assume that Dusty Baker is unveiling the statue.

      • CBPtOSU

        Larry Rothschild too.

  • AC0000000

    Wait until after this season to lock him up. I don’t want to take the risk that he turns into Mark Prior. Speaking of which, the Cubs announced yesterday Mark Prior would be getting a statue of him built outside Wrigley Field. It’s going to be made of glass, and the right arm and shoulder are going to be heavily bandaged.

    • Eddie Von White

      Good one, CAPS.

    • Bartz

      Nice! I’d assume that Dusty Baker is unveiling the statue.

      • AC0000000

        Larry Rothschild too.

  • Doc Raker

    Seven years is a long contract for a pitcher. Pitchers have to many peeks, valleys and injuries. Very few pitchers dominate year in and year out. I would extend Arrieta with a generous contract but I would go 4 year after this 2016 season.

  • Doc Raker

    Seven years is a long contract for a pitcher. Pitchers have to many peeks, valleys and injuries. Very few pitchers dominate year in and year out. I would extend Arrieta with a generous contract but I would go 4 year after this 2016 season.

  • Doug S.

    I’d work something out that demonstrates a desire to keep him, but takes effect next or the following year with conditions. We’ll have E-Jax $$$ to play with after this year.

    • CBPtOSU

      I totally forgot about him. Where is our old friend pitching these days?

      • Doug S.

        Miami. They pay 500 grand, we pay 12+ mill. Sweet deal for splinter butt EJ.

      • CBPtOSU

        Splinter butt?

      • Eddie Von White

        Pine rider.

      • CBPtOSU

        I like it

    • AC0000000

      I totally forgot about him. Where is our old friend pitching these days?

      • Doug S.

        Miami. They pay 500 grand, we pay 12+ mill. Sweet deal for splinter butt EJ.

      • AC0000000

        Splinter butt?

      • Eddie Von White

        Pine rider.

      • AC0000000

        I like it

  • Jay Grochowski

    History is not kind to rhp’s and their 32-38 year old fastballs. Arrieta’s walk year is loaded with FA talent. We have the luxury of seeing how he pitches the next two years, but on the surface I’d say no. The old Hendry-Cubs this would be a much tougher decision, but I believe Jed/Theo are building pitching, are able to trade for pitching, and could opt for a younger FA if needed. If the Cubs whiff and Arrieta is dominant for five years after the deal, then so be it. We’ve got two more years of drafting arms, signing Cubans, and developing youngsters before they have to decide. I’m betting the Cubs will let him walk and spend big in what promises to be a crazy 2018

    • Doc Raker

      Exactly how I feel.

  • Jay Grochowski

    History is not kind to rhp’s and their 32-38 year old fastballs. Arrieta’s walk year is loaded with FA talent. We have the luxury of seeing how he pitches the next two years, but on the surface I’d say no. The old Hendry-Cubs this would be a much tougher decision, but I believe Jed/Theo are building pitching, are able to trade for pitching, and could opt for a younger FA if needed. If the Cubs whiff and Arrieta is dominant for five years after the deal, then so be it. We’ve got two more years of drafting arms, signing Cubans, and developing youngsters before they have to decide. I’m betting the Cubs will let him walk and spend big in what promises to be a crazy 2018

  • Sherm

    I’d try to extend him now – but for a four year total. His two control years, plus two more – at a big enough number that he has to consider it. If he happens to have four injury-free, outstanding years? He’ll get ANOTHER payday – from us, or someone else…even at 34. But right now, $100+M for the next four years will have to seem surreal to him based on where he was just three years ago. Maybe he’ll see the security in that, and jump on it. Add an option for a fifth year, but no opt out, because with Boros on his team, he’ll opt and then you’ve simply overpaid for the two years you’ll get.

    • Doc Raker

      Who turns down $100M?

      • Eddie Von White

        Someone who can make $101M.

      • CBPtOSU

        Juan Gonzalez turned down a $150M contract. In 2000. That would be 200M+ in today’s money.

      • Adam Peters

        Max Scherzer turned down over $100 mil from Detroit and it worked out for him.

        The flip side of that is Ian Desmond turned down a $100M+ 7-year extension from Washington, then tanked last year and is playing for Texas for $8M this season.

      • CBPtOSU

        Scherzer took out a loss of value insurance policy to hedge against the Desmond situation.

      • Doc Raker

        Loss of value insurance policy. I have an insurance policy of Babe Ruth’s. Would you like to see it?

      • CBPtOSU

        I would. No joke, the company I work for insured Babe Ruth’s car back in the day.

      • Doc Raker

        Arrieta would have to wait 2 years before being a FA so taking $100M now would be hard to pass up as would a lot less. A lot can happen in two years so any offer that offers a lifetime of family security would be hard to pass up, I would think.

      • cap’n realist

        a bigger concern is our $20 mil a year #2 that STILL can’t field a bunt or throw to a base. Did you see yesterday’s first 2 innings with Lester on the mound. Slow off the mound on a bunt. Tailor made 1-6-3 double play comebacker, and he instead turns and underhands one 55 feet to first base. How is he no better?

      • Eddie Von White

        He already has the 20 mil contract…doesn’t have to get better.

      • Doug S.

        Man I hope Lester is the guy we hope he’ll be this year.

      • Doc Raker

        So because Player A is over paid than Player B has to be over paid? You are Jim Hendry.

  • Sherm

    I’d try to extend him now – but for a four year total. His two control years, plus two more – at a big enough number that he has to consider it. If he happens to have four injury-free, outstanding years? He’ll get ANOTHER payday – from us, or someone else…even at 34. But right now, $100+M for the next four years will have to seem surreal to him based on where he was just three years ago. Maybe he’ll see the security in that, and jump on it. Add an option for a fifth year, but no opt out, because with Boros on his team, he’ll opt and then you’ve simply overpaid for the two years you’ll get.

    • Doc Raker

      Who turns down $100M?

      • Eddie Von White

        Someone who can make $101M.

      • AC0000000

        Juan Gonzalez turned down a $150M contract. In 2000. That would be 200M+ in today’s money.

      • Adam Peters

        Max Scherzer turned down over $100 mil from Detroit and it worked out for him.

        The flip side of that is Ian Desmond turned down a $100M+ 7-year extension from Washington, then tanked last year and is playing for Texas for $8M this season.

      • AC0000000

        Scherzer took out a loss of value insurance policy to hedge against the Desmond situation.

      • Doc Raker

        Loss of value insurance policy. I have an insurance policy of Babe Ruth’s. Would you like to see it?

      • AC0000000

        I would. No joke, the company I work for insured Babe Ruth’s car back in the day.

      • Doc Raker

        Arrieta would have to wait 2 years before being a FA so taking $100M now would be hard to pass up as would a lot less. A lot can happen in two years so any offer that offers a lifetime of family security would be hard to pass up, I would think.

      • cap’n realist

        a bigger concern is our $20 mil a year #2 that STILL can’t field a bunt or throw to a base. Did you see yesterday’s first 2 innings with Lester on the mound. Slow off the mound on a bunt. Tailor made 1-6-3 double play comebacker, and he instead turns and underhands one 55 feet to first base. How is he no better?

      • Eddie Von White

        He already has the 20 mil contract…doesn’t have to get better.

      • Doug S.

        Man I hope Lester is the guy we hope he’ll be this year.

      • Doc Raker

        So because Player A is over paid than Player B has to be over paid? You are Jim Hendry.

  • Paul P Covelli

    Although Arrietta is only 29/30 I would hold out for a 5 year deal with a 1/2 year option . No pitcher is worth the money they command today especially Lester & his mega deal when he’s really only a number 2/3 starter . He never had the career type year Jake had
    Last year . But Arrietta may be an exception & if he comes close to last seasons stats
    This year that will prove it .

  • Paul P Covelli

    Although Arrietta is only 29/30 I would hold out for a 5 year deal with a 1/2 year option . No pitcher is worth the money they command today especially Lester & his mega deal when he’s really only a number 2/3 starter . He never had the career type year Jake had
    Last year . But Arrietta may be an exception & if he comes close to last seasons stats
    This year that will prove it .

  • CBPtOSU

    I’d consider an extension for less years but more dollars. Rip up his contract for this season as part of an extension.

  • AC0000000

    I’d consider an extension for less years but more dollars. Rip up his contract for this season as part of an extension.

  • I’m not making that call.

    • Eddie Von White

      Better refer to replay in New Yawk.

  • I’m not making that call.

    • Eddie Von White

      Better refer to replay in New Yawk.

  • Someone took Pierced Johnson deep today.

    • Doc Raker

      That must hurt.

  • Someone took Pierced Johnson deep today.

    • Doc Raker

      That must hurt.

  • Adam Peters

    I’d extend him for a total of 5 years for like $120M. He might not go for it, but he might not come anywhere near duplicating last year’s numbers this year either.

  • Adam Peters

    I’d extend him for a total of 5 years for like $120M. He might not go for it, but he might not come anywhere near duplicating last year’s numbers this year either.

  • Doug S.

    Yikes, Lester roughed up early today.

    • Doc Raker

      I think you are over looking how good Jon Lester really is, Luke Jet will explain on Sunday.

      • Doug S.

        Lemme guess, there are 20 million reasons.

      • Doc Raker

        I don’t know, see the above tweet from Luke Jet. I am still trying to figure out why people thought Carlos Pena was so good with a .197 batín average.

      • He saw a lot of pitches.

      • Doug S.

        It takes a long time to write 20 million things.

  • Doug S.

    Yikes, Lester roughed up early today.

    • Doc Raker

      I think you are over looking how good Jon Lester really is, Luke Jet will explain on Sunday.

      • Doug S.

        Lemme guess, there are 20 million reasons.

      • Doc Raker

        I don’t know, see the above tweet from Luke Jet. I am still trying to figure out why people thought Carlos Pena was so good with a .197 batín average.

      • He saw a lot of pitches.

      • Doug S.

        It takes a long time to write 20 million things.

  • Eddie Von White

    I would not do anything this year; see how he does; if he continues on the terror he’s been on then try some negotiations right after we win the World Series.

    • Mark_from_Toronto

      I tend to agree. While I hope Arrieta will pitch just as well as last season, there is still the chance he may revert to a more average type of SP.

    • Mark_from_Toronto

      I tend to agree. While I hope Arrieta will pitch just as well as last season, there is still the chance he may revert to a more average type of SP.

  • CBPtOSU

    Looks like our old friend Mike Olt is playing 1B for the trash.

  • AC0000000

    Looks like our old friend Mike Olt is playing 1B for the trash.