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November 2014

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COMMENTS

10 Bold Predictions for 2014 – How Did I Do?

Written by , Posted in General

At the beginning of the season, I made some predictions for what I thought would potentially happen. Obviously when you’re making bold predictions, you don’t expect all of them to come true. I find it funny that most people just crank these things out and no one usually goes back to see how they did. Today we’re going to do just that. Off we go.

1. Mike Olt will lead the team in home runs – OK, we’re off to a no so good start here. I didn’t think Olt was going to be a monster at the plate, though I hoped he would, but I didn’t expect him to struggle as much as he did. He said his eyesight was better and that it was the cause the year before for his struggles. Unfortunately that wasn’t the case and Olt finished 5th on the team in home runs with 12, behind Anthony Rizzo (32), Luis Valbuena (16), Starlin Castro (14), and Welington Castillo (13).

At this point, I’m not really sure what the future holds for Olt. He’s generally dropped out of the discussion as a future building block, so now the question is what his role might actually be. I fear he may go the route of someone like Josh Vitters and just sort of fade off into the Cubs sunset. The one thing he has going for him this year and probably this year only, is that Kris Bryant won’t be called up immediately. He has a very small window of shared time at third base with Valbuena where he could impress. It may be his last shot.

2. Javier Baez will have started at least 15 games at shortstop for the Cubs by September 1. – While he only make five starts at shortstop before Sept 1, he did play basically the entire month of August, which was the point of the exercise here. My point was that Baez was going to be up and starting sooner than September 1 and I just figured it would be at shortstop.

3. Anthony Rizzo will finish in the top 10 for the NL MVP race – Had Rizzo not gone down for a period with an injury, he would have finished higher in the ballot. Nonetheless, it was announced the other day that he just squeeked out a win for me on this one with a 10th place finish in the NL MVP vote. That makes 2-for-3 so far.

4. Kyle Hendricks will make at least 10 starts for the Cubs – I knocked this one out of the park. 10 starts was a really bold prediction given that a starter, if healthy, only makes about 33-35 starts, and the fact that the Cubs had five guys pretty much locked into the rotation to start the year. Hendricks looked far better than I would have predicted, but I think we’ll see a strong regression to the mean in 2015 for him and he’ll settle in as a back end of the rotation guy. It’s tough to be more than that as a finesse pitcher, but maybe he’ll prove us wrong.

5. Pedro Strop will finish the season with more saves than Jose Veras I feel bad taking a win on this one, but it is what it is. Strop finished the season with two saves and Veras had just one. Veras looked better pitching for Houston, but I’m fine with us releasing him when we did.

6. The bullpen will finish in the top 5 in the NL for ERA – It’s not a win for me on this one, but my point in the prediction was that this bullpen was going to be much improved. For a bullpen that finished 13th in 2013, an improvement to 8th is what I was going for. I can’t find a site that will allow for a double split to sort as a bullpen and month by month, but I would venture to guess that the pen was top five or just outside of it each month after Veras was released and Carlos Villanueva stopped getting in games as consistently late.

7. More than one player will represent the Cubs in the All Star game. – Nope. [UPDATE] I was told to give myself credit for this one. Rizzo was added by vote later. I don’t tend to count that spot, but I’ll take it.

8. Castro will be traded by the July 31 deadline and Darwin Barney will not. – Got this one completely backward. I thought someone would want to trade for Castro and that the front office would make that deal. I also thought Barney had no value whatsoever. Instead, it’s Barney leaving and the Cubs receiving Jonathan Martinez in return.

9. People will quickly see why Arodys Vizcaino was considered a top prospect when he announces his presence with authority after being recalled from Iowa and becomes one of the top arms in the pen. – Boy, I really thought he was going to be huge for this pen. In fact, all spring training I predicted he would make the opening day roster. Instead, he was traded back to the Braves last week.

10. The Cubs will win 81 games in 2014 – I must have meant 2015.

Final Total – 5 out of 10

 

  • Eagledrc

    Didn’t we have Castro and Rizzo in the ASG?

    • Jedi

      To be exact, the Cubs had 3 representatives. Jeff Samardzija was an All-Star, though not eligible to play for either team since he was traded on July 4. He would’ve been on the NL roster if he’d still be with the Cubs at the break.

      • Remember his hair-do? Classic.

      • Seymour Butts

        Heard a rumor he once played football.

      • Quarterback at Notre Dame. True story.

      • justin

        WR

      • Doc Raker

        Tight end………………Oh sorry that was in his porn career. Wide receiver at ND…….wait..that was in his porn career………..I am confused.

      • Remember his hair-do? Classic.

      • HLCBSL691

        I thought it was any NL team? He still could have been named to the AL team as an injury replacement

      • AC0000000

        I thought it was any NL team? He still could have been named to the AL team as an injury replacement

  • Dork

    Actually 5 out of 10 for bold predictions is not too bad. Well done Joe.

    • Number 9 is completely subjective. You could make an argument for 6/10, but I’ll leave that call as an exercise for the spreadsheet maintainer.

  • Dork

    I think the bullpen only had 2 bad stretches right after the big trade and then again in the begining of September. Had to look at the spreadsheet for that last one. otherwise they were very good, like you said after the Veras release.

    • Eddie Von White

      Aren’t you curious as to who it was who told Joe to give himself credit for # 7? I’m thinking it was the same people who demanded he do that other thing.

      • Joe Aiello

        Check Twitter

    • Eddie Von White

      Aren’t you curious as to who it was who told Joe to give himself credit for # 7? I’m thinking it was the same people who demanded he do that other thing.

  • Joe must use that new math.

  • Joe must use that new math.

  • Dork

    That Mike Golic picture is something I did not need to see. Joe some things should not be retweeted

    • Eddie Von White

      I thought that was Seymour.

  • Dork

    That Mike Golic picture is something I did not need to see. Joe some things should not be retweeted

  • Doc Raker

    Good job Joe! Being in the insurance industry I hope you didn’t pass on the grand puba’s predictions of “If you like your health insurance you can keep your health insurance. If you like your doctor you can keep your doctor.”

    • Eddie Von White

      They better not try to take you away from us.

      • I’m not sure the bill specified anything about Maui Jims…

      • Eddie Von White

        If they’re prescription Maui Jims we’re in trouble.

      • Doc Raker

        One of the many flaws in the ACA is that they left out vision care. This bill is so bad on so many levels it will go down as the second worst law in American history.

      • I don’t need prescription Maui Jims to see that the Volstead Act is the worst.

      • Jedi

        I thought Doc was referencing the 19th amendment.

      • Dork

        I don’t know why I do this but what was the worst law?

      • Doc Raker

        Slavery

      • Bet you a Bushmills prohibition will forever trump this crap.

      • Doc Raker

        Not even democrats are dumb enough to write that law.

      • HLCBSL691

        Prohibition was a waste of 2 amendments

      • HLCBSL691

        YES! I AM A CITIZEN! NOW WHICH WAY TO THE WELFARE OFFICE!?
        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8VCbvMoCV8

      • Doc Raker

        Congrats! Silly you, you don’t need to be a citizen to receive welfare.

      • Dork

        You also do not need to be a citizen to have condiments in your fingers, or batch cook naked or get a nose bleed for that matter, isn’t this country great.

      • HLCBSL691

        You want a condiment joke, here’s one:

        Why is it illegal to buy and sell margarine in Wisconsin?
        Answer: Because the dairy farmers will have a cow

      • HLCBSL691

        You mean silly Apu. I was born here. Which means I can be president! Food stamps and free cell phones for everyone!

      • Doug S.

        May I suggest you broaden the scope of your campaign?

      • HLCBSL691

        I’m never running for office. If nominated I will not accept. If elected I will not serve.

      • Doug S.

        Yogi Berra couldn’t have said it better

      • Doug S.

        Yogi Berra couldn’t have said it better

      • I predict that scenario will not present itself.

      • HLCBSL691

        You and me both. I plan to stay in my career as a fat insurance salesman.

      • Seymour Butts

        Ever heard of John Blutarski?

      • HLCBSL691

        Why do you need to do that when the Cleveland cell phone lady will vote for it?
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpAOwJvTOio

      • Doc Raker

        One of the many flaws in the ACA is that they left out vision care. This bill is so bad on so many levels it will go down as the second worst law in American history.

      • I don’t need prescription Maui Jims to see that the Volstead Act is the worst.

      • Dork

        I don’t know why I do this but what was the worst law?

      • Doc Raker

        Slavery

      • Bet you a Bushmills prohibition will forever trump this crap.

      • AC0000000

        YES! I AM A CITIZEN! NOW WHICH WAY TO THE WELFARE OFFICE!?
        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8VCbvMoCV8

      • Doc Raker

        Congrats! Silly you, you don’t need to be a citizen to receive welfare.

      • Dork

        You also do not need to be a citizen to have condiments in your fingers, or batch cook naked or get a nose bleed for that matter, isn’t this country great.

      • AC0000000

        You want a condiment joke, here’s one:

        Why is it illegal to buy and sell margarine in Wisconsin?
        Answer: Because the dairy farmers will have a cow

      • AC0000000

        You mean silly Apu. I was born here. Which means I can be president! Food stamps and free cell phones for everyone!

      • Doug S.

        May I suggest you broaden the scope of your campaign?

    • Eddie Von White

      They better not try to take you away from us.

  • Jedi

    Kyle Seager is worth 7yrs/100mil?…Seattle’s FO has been smoking too much pot

    • Dork

      Lots of ridiculous money flying today. I choose to think this is good for the cubs.

      • Jedi

        The Red Sox seem intent on getting older & more expensive. Either Hanley or Pablo would’ve been a decent move for them…both of them, though? Why.

      • HLCBSL691

        Doesn’t make any sense. They already have a surplus of outfielders which is likely where Hanley will go. Bet they’re going to trade off some of their outfielders for pitching help.

      • Dork

        It seems especially strange to me since they just got out from under all of the dollars thrown at Crawford Gonzalez and Beckett.

      • HLCBSL691

        Yeah they got lucky LA took all those contracts.

      • AC0000000

        Yeah they got lucky LA took all those contracts.

      • AC0000000

        Doesn’t make any sense. They already have a surplus of outfielders which is likely where Hanley will go. Bet they’re going to trade off some of their outfielders for pitching help.

    • HLCBSL691

      That and they’ve been drinking too much Starbucks.

    • Doc Raker

      Bob Seager maybe, Turn the Page.

  • Jedi

    Kyle Seager is worth 7yrs/100mil?…Seattle’s FO has been smoking too much pot

    • Dork

      Lots of ridiculous money flying today. I choose to think this is good for the cubs.

    • AC0000000

      That and they’ve been drinking too much Starbucks.

  • Doug S.

    Who wants to buy a free ticket to the Jets/Bills game in Detroit tonight?
    Some people are amazing.

    • We need a new post…this thread seems to have broke Doug.

      • Eddie Von White

        What happened to that guy who was always hawking his 105 reasons book? I think he could bring Doug back.

      • Dork

        I think we need a new thread, but to be clear I am not demanding 3 truths and a lie.

      • Eddie Von White

        Review:
        Condiment fingers – over exposed

        Ask Joe Anything – under answered
        3 truths and a lie – anti-climatic

        We could do riddles or something while we are waiting for opening day.

      • Dork

        How about some bold predictions for the off season?

      • I’ll go out on a limb and say that Mike Olt will not lead the team in home runs.

      • Dork

        I like this line of thought. I say Edwin Jackson will not lead the team in ERA or innings pitched.

      • People will not quickly see why Arodys Vizcaino was considered a top prospect when he announces his presence with authority after being recalled from Iowa and becomes one of the top arms in the pen.

      • Dork

        Joe’s wife will batch cook something naked for Thanksgiving. While Joe cannot take his eyes off the pictures of Mike Golic on his twitter account (like a car wreck)

      • Dork

        Joe’s wife will batch cook something naked for Thanksgiving. While Joe cannot take his eyes off the pictures of Mike Golic on his twitter account (like a car wreck)

      • Doug S.

        The price of beer at Wrigley will go up next year.

      • Doug S.

        The price of beer at Wrigley will go up next year.

      • Dork

        How about some bold predictions for the off season?

      • Which begs the question: who demanded ‘Three Truths and a Lie?’

      • Dork

        i KNOW… RIGHT

      • Eddie Von White

        I predict Joe Maddon will come out as Leonard on the Big Bang Theory.

      • Dork

        I think we need a new thread, but to be clear I am not demanding 3 truths and a lie.

      • Which begs the question: who demanded ‘Three Truths and a Lie?’

      • Dork

        i KNOW… RIGHT

      • Eddie Von White

        I predict Joe Maddon will come out as Leonard on the Big Bang Theory.

    • We need a new post…this thread seems to have broke Doug.

    • Mark_from_Toronto

      As a Bills fan I was sad to hear people were scalping those free tickets. I would have gone if I didn’t have to work yesterday or today. Good to see the Bills get the win though and keep their slim playoff chances alive.

      • Doug S.

        Jets fan here. Imagine the fun I had watching that trainwreck. I keep looking for the Wrex fired headline but Woody hasn’t pulled the trigger.

      • Mark_from_Toronto

        Rex is definitely part of the problem, but I think the bigger issue is the lack of a viable option at QB. In any case, I feel your pain as it feels like this is the first season in a long time that the Bills haven’t crashed and burned by this point in the season.

      • Mark_from_Toronto

        Rex is definitely part of the problem, but I think the bigger issue is the lack of a viable option at QB. In any case, I feel your pain as it feels like this is the first season in a long time that the Bills haven’t crashed and burned by this point in the season.