The Cubs' Future Number 1 Pitching Prospect
Two weeks ago, we discussed how the Cubs’ pitching prospects are underrated, as the system has a significant amount of depth in pitchers with mid-rotation and late innings bullpen upside. However, the Cubs’ system lacks the type of prospects who project into ace and number 2 roles in Major League rotations. That likely changes on June 5, when the Cubs will have the chance to select one of a deep crop of pitching prospects with the fourth pick in the Rule 4 draft.
Carlos Rodon (LHP, NC State): Three months ago the odds that Rodon could fall to the Cubs at number four were all but nonexistent, as he was viewed as likely the biggest lock to go at number 1 since Bryce Harper in 2010. Last season, Rodon showed a 93-95 mph fastball with an elite slider and fantastic command. Neither the breaking ball or the command have been as strong this season, and his status has fallen a bit. Both Keith Law’s rankings (last updated on March 21) and Perfect Game‘s (last updated on April 16), now place Rodon behind a pair of high school arms. As such, it’s distinctly possible Rodon could be available when the Cubs pick at number 4.
Brady Aiken (LHP, High School): Aiken is the new pitcher in the number one slot for both Law and Perfect Game, with a mid-90s fastball and a plus curveball. Law also reports that his change up could be a plus pitcher in the future, and describes him as a “pretty good version of the [Clayton] Kershaw starter kit.” However, if Aiken’s status as the essentially consensus number 1 continues, the odds that he’ll get past the Astros, Marlins and White Sox are very slim.
Tyler Kolek (RHP, High School): Both Law and Perfect Game currently list Kolek as their number 2 prospect. He’s got the big body MLB teams want in starting pitching prospects (6’5″, 230 pounds) and throws 100 mph.
Tyler Beede (RHP, Vanderbilt): Like Rodon, Beede’s draft status has taken a bit of a hit this season, particularly with inconsistent performances in his last several starts. Law ranked him at number 4 in March (when he was pitching better), and Perfect Game listed him at number 6 in mid-April. Ideally, he has three plus pitches, which he showed with plus command early in the season, but hasn’t been able to continue.
Jeff Hoffman (RHP, East Carolina): Last year’s Cape Cod League darling can throw 97 and, at least in the Cape Cod League last season, showed a very good breaking ball. Law listed him at 6, while Perfect Game has him at 4.
Grant Holmes (RHP, High School): Holmes is a high school arm who throws 98 with a projectable body for a starter, although not one that is ready right now like Kolek. Law ranked him at 5, and Perfect Game at 8.
This is just a preliminary look, as a lot can change in the 40 days before the draft. Some of these names will peel off this list because they either solidify themselves as a top 1 or 2 pick, or because their performance falls off. Others will join this list, and we will reexamine the few players who the Cubs are most likely to pick as the draft approaches. With no Kris Bryant on the horizon among this year’s draft class, though, odd are strong that the Cubs will draft their most promising pitcher since Mark Prior this season.