The Farm Report – May 3rd: Simpson Win, Vitters HR, BABIP
BOX SCORES FROM LAST NIGHT
Josh Vitters (3B): 1st home run of season
Frank Batista (RP): The Cubs Minor League Pitcher of April pitched 1.2 innings, only gave up a hit, and struck out 2. Has a 0.00 ERA so far at Iowa…and picked up the blown save.
Jae-Hoon Ha (OF): 2-5 with a double
Trey McNutt (SP): 44 pitches, 26 strikes in 2.2 innings. 5 runs (2 earned), 2 walks, 1 K
Rubi Silva (RF): 2-4 with his first home run and first successful stolen base in six attempts
Matt Szczur (CF): 0-3, SB, run
Hayden Simpson (RP): Yup, relief pitcher. And WTF? 4 innings, 1 hit, 0 walks, 4 K’s and his second career win. Still, nothing to get excited about if he’s still only throwing mid-80’s. However, this article mentions he “touched 90” on Thursday.
Zeke DeVoss (2B): 0-5 with 4 K’s
Paul Hoilman (1B): Extended his hitting streak to 16 games with a 1-for-4 night.
Pin-Chieh Chen (LF): 3-3 with a double
- After seeing Hayden Simpson’s line, I looked him up and never noticed his career numbers before:
97.2 innings, 1 win, 13 losses, 6.63 ERA, 1.88 WHIP
And he’s 23 years old in High A.
- I’ve become more and more interested in Daytona’s 2B/OF Rubi Silva because of his line of 333/386/469 (prior to yesterday’s game). But minor league numbers are to be taken with a large grain of salt and may not be indicative of ‘true talent’, so I make completely subjective adjustments to see if I should temper my excitement, proclaim him the next big thing, or, usually, something in between.
His BABIP is .415. To give me a better read on the true talent level of minor league players, as a rule of thumb, I reduce the BABIP down to the .330-.340 range (which is near the high end of sustainability) and subtract the difference from his line. By doing that with Silva, I become less enthusiastic on him maintaining that 333/386/469 line and that line is probably not indicative of his true talent.
- Another minor leaguer with some pretty looking numbers, and one we’ll probably see in Chicago before the year is over, is Iowa’s Adrian Cardenas. He’s only struck out 4 times in 93 plate appearances; nearly the best in the PCL. I like what I see in his numbers: 354/398/585 with a .342 BABIP. As I mentioned, that .330-.340 range of BABIP is in the high range, so with Cardenas, even if we project a low range BABIP of say, .290, and adjust from there, he maintains a solid line of 302/346/533 (although I’m not a believer in that slugging). Cardenas’ knock has been his defense, but he is someone I think will contribute in the majors over the next couple of seasons.
I’m not saying that adjusting a minor leaguers BABIP and AVG/OBP/SLG is a sure fire way to see what the team has in a player, but it’s a simple process I can do at a glance that I think gives me a better read than just the raw AVG/OBP/SLG line.